Hooton on 2008

Hooton makes an interesting point in the SST:

Labour will have no better luck with policy in 2008. The fragile consensus around its flagship emissions trading scheme will begin to crack as farmers and manufacturers ask why their industry representatives are acquiescing to a policy they believe is overly complex and which will impose costs on them well above their international competitors’, all in the name of allowing Clark to prattle on about carbon neutrality despite her government having a worse record on climate change than the administration of George W Bush. Cullen’s $1.5 billion in tax cuts will also fail to be credible to voters, but in proceeding with them he will legitimise National’s bolder moves. He will not be able to reconcile his claims that his $6.4 billion in election-year bribes would not be inflationary but National’s promises would be.

I think Labour has a significant risk of delivering tax cuts, yet getting no credit for them because everyone knows they have been done so grudgingly.  But what they will do is give political cover for National’s tax cuts.  Hard to demonise tax cuts when you deliver some yourself.

To become prime minister, Key needs merely to brace himself for the unprecedentedly vicious attacks on his character that are inevitable from Clark’s desperate gang; show he can restore the vital x-factor of national self-belief that has been eroded this past decade; demonstrate to the Maori Party that he will support their aspirations, and commit himself to the highest standards of personal and political integrity to ensure that 2011 is also in the bag.

Key’s character will be attacked, beyond doubt.  I fully expect that they will pull out some accuser who claims that 26 years ago John Key was rude to her or something.

I am told the print edition has Matthew’s 2008 predictions.  I don’t yet have that, so may blog that later.