5 Myths About US Ballot-Box Behavior
A good read in the NY Times by Professor Bryan Caplan. The myths are:
1. People vote their self-interest.
In fact, there is only the tiniest correlation between income and party. The country is not divided into two camps: the poor, who vote Democrat, and the rich, who vote Republican…
Self-interest is also a bad predictor of views about specific issues. Yes, the elderly heavily support Social Security and Medicare, but so does almost everyone else. The old bumper sticker says, “If men could get pregnant, abortion would be a sacrament,” but men are actually slightly more pro-choice than women.
2. Unselfish voting will solve our problems.
We often blame political problems on the selfishness of our fellow citizens. If people would just sacrifice their own interests for the country’s good, our problems would be solved, right?
Hardly. Selfishness is not the only cause of political strife. The U.S. electorate is bitterly divided by ideology and religion, and that’s what makes our political disagreements so intractable. After all, if voters were truly selfish, they would negotiate amicable settlements and take what they could get, instead of zealously fighting the same battles year after year.
Even if the American public put aside ideological and religious differences, unselfish voting could easily be dangerous. If people are mistaken about how to make society better off, their good intentions will produce bad consequences. A selfless doctor who believes that leeches will cure cancer is dangerous. So is a selfless voter who truly believes that high tariffs will cure unemployment.
3. Voters’ errors balance out.
It’s fashionable to dismiss worries about the mistakes of the average voter by praising “the wisdom of crowds,” to use James Surowiecki’s phrase. Sure, the average voter knows little about politics, economics and policy. But for every voter who overestimates the benefits of tariffs, carbon taxes and the Iraq war, doesn’t another make the opposite mistake?
Actually, no. Voters are frequently wrong in the same way. This is particularly clear in economics. If you’ve never studied economics, you’re not equally likely to oversell or downplay the benefits of free trade. Instead, people who know nothing about economics are staunch protectionists, and people who know a lot of economics are avid free-traders…
In politics and economics, people believe what makes them feel good, even if the evidence is against them. For most Americans, it feels a lot better to scapegoat Mexicans or Chinese for the country’s economic woes than it does to calmly examine the facts.
4. Political disagreement is all about values.
Values matter a great deal, but facts do, too. On almost every major issue, both sides have a different story, not just a different spin. For example, a 2004 Harris poll on the Iraq war found that supporters of President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry had radically different beliefs about Saddam Hussein’s regime. A striking 58 percent of Bush partisans thought Iraq had weapons of mass destruction when the United States invaded it in 2003, as opposed to just 16 percent of Kerry backers.
5. Voters want serious change.
Pundits love telling us that voters are “fed up” with politics as usual. Candidates follow suit, insisting that — unlike their competition — they’re really listening to the American people.
Nonsense. Public opinion data strongly confirm that the status quo is popular. All the big components of the federal budget enjoy broad support. When asked whether government should do less of something, more of something or stick with the status quo, the average American almost always sticks with what he has.