TV polls concur on Labour’s plight

By chance both TVNZ and TV3 had their final polls out tonight.  The TV3 poll tends to be harder on National – it only shows National winning 67 seats,  The One News poll has it at 70 seats.

There can be no doubt there are two major factors driving these results – the Electoral Finance Bill and Trevor Mallard.  The economic situation may be contributing also, but really Labour and their supporters have been acting suicidally.

Let’s look at the results in more detail:

National

Ine News has 54% and TV3 51%.  For TV3 this is National’s highest score since the series begun in 1996. Even Brash post Orewa only got to 42.5%.  National in fact never been above 43% with the TV3 poll until May this year,

Labour 

36% with TV3 and 35% with One News.

Last time Labour got lower than 36% with TV3 was in 1999.  It is also worth remembering that in 1999 the combined Lab/Alliance vote was 47%.  People keep discounting the 8% Alliance vote in 1999.  The left vote in 1999 was 52%.  On this poll it is either 36% or 41% depending on whether the Green vote is wasted or not. 

Greens

Three polls in a row have put the Greens under 5%.  Not probable they will be wiped out, but now not impossible.  They only got 5.6% last time.  Greens had been averaging 8% for much of 2007.  Their unprincipled support of the Electoral Finance Bill has probably cost them three MPs.

They have refused to stick up for any of their principles in capitulating to Labour’s demands, and most crucially have lost their brand as independent. And damage to a brand can be the hardest to repair.

NZ First

They had been gaining support for their stance on the Urewera 17 arrests etc, but have fallen back and are at or just over 2% in both polls.

Preferred PM

Clark is now behind Key on both TV3 and One News polls.

Electoral Finance Bill

It is interesting to look at the five parties (including Progressive) who are pushing the Electoral Finance Bill through Parliament.  On the One News poll their 65 seats would be reduced to 48 seats.  On the TV3 poll they would be 49 seats.

They still have a chance to do the right thing and vote it down on Tuesday. If they do not, then they have been warned that this will be an election year issue. Helen Clark has scoffed and scoffed at the opposition to the Bill and insisted it is a minor beltway issue.

Free speech is not a minor beltway issue.