Maori Seats Poll

I was just finishing off yesterday the monthly polling newsletter (which will cover all the public polls) and TVNZ released their Marae Digipoll which had all sorts of interesting material in there.

However, as is usual, the website only has top line details so I couldn’t access the full data.

But by coincidence I got a call from TVNZ today asking if I could comment for the six pm news on the results of the poll, which meant they sent me the full data. So I’ve spent some time today going through that.

Now the sample size for each electorate is small – an average of 95.  So care has to be taken with them.

Nevertheless in three of the four seats the Maori Party holds, their leads of 48% in Te Tai Tokerau, 20% in Te Tai Hauauru and 56% in Waiariki make them very safe.

In Tamaki Makaurau the Maori Party leads Labour by 5% on the electorate vote.   But as Sharples holds this seat, and the poll did not name the candidates, I don’t think anyone thinks he is at risk.

Then we turn to Te Tai Tonga which has Maori Party 44.3% and Labour 38.6%. Now on a small sample of 95, the probablity the Maori Party really is ahead is 73.0%.  By no means certain, but 3:1 likely.

In Ikaroa-Rawhiti the Maori Party is 48.8% and Labour 42.9% on the candidate vote.  The probability the Maori Party is actually ahead is 72.6%.  So again around 3:1 likely.

Finally in Tainui it is a tie with each on 43.9%.  But the poll was done on the old Tainui boundary and the new seat of Hauraki-Waikato delivers around 250 more votes to the Maori Party.  So Maori Party on the new boundary would be slightly ahead in reality.

But all three seats are competitive, and it will come down to quality of candidates, policies and events between now and then.

Interestingly if the Maori Party does win all seven seats, then will probably have four overhang seats and hold the balance of power.  It is possible their support would allow a Government to be formed which had less votes for it, than there were for the parties opposed to it.