How did the polls go?
I blogged on Friday a list of public mayoralty polls. Also interesting to see whether the polls reflected the results. If they do not, that is not necessarily a problem with the poll. It depends when it was taken, what events have happened since then etc.
One comment I will make though, is with such low turnouts, I personally always filter the random sample by asking respondents how likely they are to vote, and not proceeding with those less likely to vote. Far more people say they will vote than actually do at local body level. This may partly explain why the result in North Shore was so different to the Herald poll.
Waitakere: Herald Digipoll has Bob Harvey on 49% and John Tamihere on 32%. Result: Harvey won.
Manukau: Herald Digipoll has Len Brown on 29%, Dick Quax 22% and Willie Jackson 16%. Result: Brown won.
Far North: A Northern Advocate/Curia poll found a tight race with 34% for challenge Wayne Brown and 28% for Mayor Yvonne Sharp. Result: Brown won.
Whangarei: A Northern Advocate/Curia poll has former Mayor Stan Semenoff on 35% and Mayor Pamela Peters trailing on 19%. Result: Semenoff won.
South Taranaki: A Western Institute of Technology poll has
Wanganui: A Wanganui Chronicle/Curia poll found 46% support for Mayor Michael Laws and 28% for John Martin. Result: Laws won.
Manawatu: A Manawatu Standard/Versus poll has Mayor Heather Tanguay on 38% and Jono Naylor on 30%. Result: Naylor won easily .
Nelson: Nelson Mail has Kerry Marshall on 18% and Watson on 16%. Result: Marshall won.
Tasman: Nelson Mail has Richard Kempthorne on 32% incumbent John Hurley on 29%. Result: Kempthorne won.
Overall the polls were “right” in most races, but the result did differ in South Taranaki, in Palmerston North and in North Shore.