It’s about the blocs

No Right Turn has a insightful post about what levels of support National and Labour need in order to be able to form a Government, taking into account wasted vote and likely partners.

NRT estimates that if National gets 46% or more, then it should be able to clearly form a centre right Government with support from ACT and United Future.  That is about right. Incidentially in the four polls so far this month average support is 48.5% so not a huge comfort margin – definitely no room for complacency.

Labour gets into a position where they could form a Labour-Green-Maori Government if they are at 40% or so.  Their current average is 36.5% – again not a long way off.

Of course the Maori Party might not go with Labour, and also NZ First may make 5%, but one would not want to rely on either of those two things.