Young on Labour

Audrey Young looks at the future for Labour. She notes that the UMR poll (Labour’s own pollsters) done at the end of June still had them 16% behind – the biggest gap in 11 years, and that the cause was more than just anger over the smacking issue.

Young says that if Clark loses the next election and goes in 2009, the only credible successor is Phil Goff. I agree he is the only credible successor, but will the Labour left be able to put aside their distaste for him? I don’t think you can rule out a less able MP being chosen, just to keep the top job with the left.

If National MPs could get a vote in Labour’s Caucus, they would bloc vote for Steve Maharey. Well maybe for George Hawkins first, but then Maharey 🙂

Young also picks that before the election Cullen will retire as Finance Minister and be replaced by Phil Goff. I have had much the same view for several months and to some degree Goff as Finance Minister could be a nightmare for National. Cullen could promise tax cuts the size of Texas and no one would believe him. But Goff could deliver tax cuts in 2008, and also promise an ongoing series of them, and be seen as credible. This could leave National with limited room to manoeuvre.

In terms of MPs deserving promotion to the Ministry, I would agree that Maryan Street and Shane Jones are deserving contenders. Street is held in very high regard by MPs from both sides of the House.

In terms of moving Ministers up the ranks, here I disagree a bit with Audrey. I think Cunliffe and Cosgrove have indisputably deserved promotion. Lianne Dalziel is a more arguable case – no major public wins like Cunliffe and Cosgrove. The one I disagree with on promotion is Chris Carter. Chris in the past has shown substantial political ability, but his record as Minister is mixed, and has dropped the ball a number of times including losing the judicial review over the Marina, and the recent fiasco over the Housing NZ tenant who illegally sub-lets the house.