O’Sullivan asks has Key peaked too early

Fran O’Sullivan asks if John Key has peaked too early.

I made the point on TV on Thursday that the last time a Government had an Opposition polling at 56% was 17 years ago in October 1990. However that was one month before an election, not 18 months. You never want your opponent at 56% but you sure as hell would rather have them there 18 months before an election that the month before.

But having said that, talking of peaking too early, suggests a degree of planning which doesn’t exist in politics. Parties don’t have master plans where they say we hope to be at 40% in June 07, 43% in Dec 07 and 47% in Sep 08, and can control the polls to coincide. Parties simply want to move the polls in their direction whenever they can, as quickly as they can. I suspect no-one is more surprised than National and John Key to find themselves at 56%. And in fact more of the credit goes to Labour for losing support, than what National has done.

So Key can’t really help having peaked early. But O’Sullivan is right it does have dangers. And one can only go downhill from such a high rating. The question will be how much the gap closes.