May 16, 2007 3:39pm by David Farrar

Government loses another MP

United Future, I hear, is having the Christians depart unhappy with Dunne on smacking.

I didn’t expect it to go so far as to include on of their three own MPs. But as everyone will know by the time this post actually appears, Gordon Copeland has quit United Future and is reforming the Future NZ party with former MP Larry Baldock.

This will be a big blow to United Future. Such messy infighting will not appeal to the public. It does give Dunne some opportunity to use it to show that UFNZ is not anymore a “Christian party” but a secular centrist party. But I suspect many of the members and funding will follow Copeland.

I see little opportunity of the new Future NZ party making the 5% threshold or winning a seat.
This move by itself does not threaten the Government in terms of supply and confidence, but does make passing laws that much harder.

If the Greens abstain, then confidence and supply votes will be 59 in favour and 56 against (if Maori Party vote against which is by no means certain).

Labour will be very unhappy this is announced they day before the budget. Headlines this week will be not just about the budget but about will the Government go full term etc.

Also of concern is that Copeland holds a key swing vote on certain committees, so legislation progress could be much more difficult also.