French Exit Polls
Exit Polls can be wrong, as we saw in the US in 2004, but they are very much in line with pre-election polling.
Three exit polls have been published, and averaging them out (they are all close to each other) gives:
Sarkozy 29.7%
Royal 25.5%
Bayrou 18.6%
Le Pen 11.3%
So Sarkozy vs Royal in two weeks.