Going to be very close

Sue Bradford’s anti-smacking bill has passed the second reading by 70 votes to 51. The breakdown by party was:

Labour 49-0
National 6-42
NZ First 3-4
Greens 6-0
Maori 4-0
United 1-2
ACT 0-2
Prog 1-0
Field 0-1

But it could be very very close when the Borrows amendment is considered. I understand the six National MPs who voted for the bill will vote for the amendment. That changes it to 64-57.

Now it all comes down to the NZ First and United Future MPs who voted in favour. Peter Dunne, Brian Donnelly, Doug Woolerton and Barbara Stewart. If all four of them vote for the Borrows amendment then it is 60-61 or rather the amendment passes 61-60.

Bradford is saying she will withdraw the bill if the amendment is passed, but that’s an expected threat.