Matt McCarten’s predictions
Matt McCarten makes some political predictions for both Auckland and New Zealand. Let’s review them:
Mike Lee – will not only be re-elected as regional chairman this year, but will lead a ticket that will secure him a comfortable working majority on the newly-empowered regional council. He won’t be called Lord Mayor but he will be it in reality.
Lee has done well, and while I am unsure he will lead a ticket, it is hard not to see him remaining ARC Chair.
Dick Hubbard – will be returned with a comfortable majority.
This may be wishful thinking on Matt’s part, as the left are struggling to find a credible candidate of their own. In an FPP election it will very much depend on how many candidates stand and how tactical voters get.
Barry Curtis – Curtis will resign as Mayor and contest a position on the regional council. Len Brown will become the new Mayor in the south.
Hard to see Curtis getting re-elected. He only got in last time because his two major opponents split the opposition vote.
George Wood – Wood is on track to make it three in a row.
Likely unless the rates rebellion crew get a credible candidate.
Bob Harvey – has been good for the West. But he’s a goner now. His secret deal with the other three mayors to abolish Waitakere City is his death knell. The westies won’t forgive him for that sell-out. His opponents want to consolidate around one candidate. If John Tamihere runs, he’ll win.
Tamihere as Mayor – that’s an amusing thought.
Georgina Beyer – will have a go at the Wellington mayoralty. If she gets lucky, she may just pull it off.
She would have to get very very lucky, and Wellington very very unlucky. I think most Wellington Labour supporters would acknowledge her career as an MP has not been a stellar one.
National and Labour – will continue to see-saw in the polls within a few percentage points of each other throughout 2007. Helen Clark will still dominate. But John Key will hold his own and won’t make any major stuff-ups like Don Brash. Key will have a good year and will be increasingly seen as a credible alternative to Clark. Michael Cullen will give us a tax cut.
At this stage (subject to future unknown events) the prediction that National and Labour will remain close to each other is pretty sound, except maybe more than just a few percentage points gap.
Maori Party – the new players in 2007. Pita Sharples will increasingly be seen as the conduit bringing Pakeha and Maori together.
Yes Sharples does very very well. However his co-leader supports introducing new race based seats for pacific islanders etc, which is not a policy going to bring anyone much closer together.
The Greens – will continue to rise and will hit 10 per cent on the polls some time this year.
I’m not sure how much further the Greens will rise. Some of their increase has been traditional left voters disgusted with Labour over pledge card and Field. If Labour sorts both those issues out, then some support may go back to Labour.
Winston Peters – is still going to be too busy to be paying much attention to NZ First, so they will hover around the 3 per cent mark.
Peters will have to pay more attention to his party, because if they stay below 3%, they face oblivion at the election. I suspect he will be staying in NZ much more this year.
Act – should be able to make a comeback, given the new centrist positioning by National. Whether Rodney Hide is capable or has the heart in it any more is debatable. If he puts his weight back on and returns to being vicious, he can go over 3 per cent.
Ignoring the silly stuff about putting weight back on, McCarten is right that National’s positioning under Key should be mana from heaven for ACT. If ACT can’t capitalise on this and go up in the polls, then it would suggest they have some potentially fatal brand problems.