Last time they’ll leave Anderton in charge

I doubt Jim Anderton is going to be on the roster for Duty Minister anytime soon. His comments on Iraq have been labelled “ill-informed and regrettable” by Winston Peters.

In terms of Bush’s announcement of 21,500 extra troops, I am unsure it is enough to make a difference, but it is a better option than doing nothing or pulling out immediately.

It is very clear that if US troops were to leave now, the Iraqi Government would not be able to control the country and it would probably fall into full civil war between warlords, and if one side starts to get dominance, then either Iran or Saudi Arabia could intervene.

However this is not a case for staying there indefinitely. It is certainly arguable that a descent into full civil war is inevitable, and that if the US troops are not there that may reduce the incentives for some factions to carry on attacks.

Therefore it is desirable that troops be withdrawn, if they are only acting as an incentive for attacks. Personally I think most of the attacks are now between Iraqi factions, not against the US troops.

What Bush wants to do is one last try to weaken the militias and leave Iraqi Government forces in control. This is certainly difficult as even the Army is not entirely free fo sectarian loyalties. But the plan is to sned the extra forces in to secure province by province, and then hand them over to the Iraqis with a clear understanding that if they fail to maintain order by themselves, the US troops will not be coming back.

So the plan is not an unreasonable one, but I see two major challenges:

1) 21,500 extra troops may not be enough to make a difference.

2) Even if the troops do manage to “pacify” a province, there are real doubts that the Iraqi Govt forces will then be up to stepping in, and a breakdown into full civil war will still happen.

If a full civil war occurs, then Iraq may end up being split into three countries, which could lead to a huge number of refugees. And Turkey won’t be keen for Kurdistan to be their new neightbour!

In summary in my opinion, sending the extra troops is probably better than the status quo, but the probability of failure is still pretty high.