Important Questions on Global Warming

Tyler Cowan at Marginal Revolution looks at the what will happen with China and India with regards to global warming. He states that the US can not suceed much in limiting global warming by itself, if China and India continue to grow. Under Kyoto the US should have reduced their greenhouse emissions by about 400 million tons per year while in the same period, Chinese emissions are expected to rise almost 2 billion tons annually.

He sets out six scenarios. Scenario No 5 is the one which concerns many, and which might come to pass due to the lack of institutional ability (ie China and India can’t act even if they want to).

5. China and India will continue to be major polluters. If we tax American-generated carbon we pay a big price in terms of economic growth but make no real progress on global warming.

Yes their contributions per capita are far less than the US, but between them they have eight times the population or so.

Cown concludes:

All other issues aside, that is why global warming is such a tough problem. I don’t like #5, but if you want to sell me on your solution, talk to me some sense about China and India.