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September 21, 2017 8:31pm by David Farrar

Final poll

The final pre-election poll from Newshub is at Curia. It has National 7.5% ahead of Labour. However NZ First projected to hold the balance of power.

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Comment116

NZ Politics

Comments (116)

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Captain Mainwaring

Very close to the TV1 poll except for NZF and TOP. But their sample sizes are so small they could go anywhere.
Looking pretty good for the Nats.
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September 21, 2017 8:36pm
RF

According to this poll the toxic greens may be included in Labours lineup.

Somehow I cannot see NZ First supporting these clowns.

Then again out of the two recent polls which is the more reliable. I would like to think the TV1 gets the tick.
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September 21, 2017 8:38pm
- Nostalgia-NZ
  
  800,000 votes already cast means the polls are less meaningful than other years. One of the men from work went and voted at the local library this morning and said there was a steady flow of voters. They are a wild card.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:51pm
- Boris Piscina
  
  Given the observably potentially rapidly declining state of W Peters’ mental (and apparently physical) health, is it fair to ask whether NZF supporters know who they are actually voting for post the 23rd?
  
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  September 22, 2017 11:16am
soundhill1

“Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 13 to 20 September 201”
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September 21, 2017 8:41pm
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  What the fuck are you trying to tell us? And when was 201?
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:43pm
  - soundhill1
    
    Capt for those people who do not click links that this “final poll” is already an average of 4 or 5 days old, and is biased towards people who related to “Internet Panel” whatever that is. as well as Ross12’s comment. You should have been able to think that out for yourself including the missing “7” from “2017”.
    
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    September 21, 2017 9:23pm
- Ross12
  
  Why do polls no longer report “undecideds” ? That used to be viewed as an important part of the poll result.
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:48pm
  - AgentBallSack
    
    Why do polls no longer report “undecideds”
    Because the media has already made up their mind
    
    30 0
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    September 21, 2017 9:13pm
Hugh Pavletich

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power | Newshub

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/newshub-election-poll-either-national-labour-could-take-power.html

The final poll is in, and it shows either side could take power on Saturday.

National has dropped back slightly to 45.8 percent. It is still the largest single party, but is teetering in the danger zone.

Labour is back a bit too, sitting on 37.3 percent. … view @ read more via hyperlink above …
.
.
… Note Phil Twyford’s comments on the surge of the youth vote …

‘Lying like a flat fish’: Insults between Paula Bennett and Phil Twyford fly over tax | Newshub

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/lying-like-a-flat-fish-insults-between-paula-bennett-and-phil-twyford-fly-over-tax.html

National is “digging in” on its claims about Labour’s so-called fiscal hole – Paula Bennett’s own words – despite accusations of lying and “post-truth” politics.

The Deputy Prime Minister and Labour’s fifth-ranked MP Phil Twyford went head-to-head in a fiery encounter on The AM Show on Thursday morning, two days before voting closes in the tightest election campaign since 2005. … view w& read more via hyperlink above …
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September 21, 2017 8:41pm
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  That’s enough Hugh. Just go and buy a heap of booze to drown your sorrows on Saturday night.
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:44pm
  - Hugh Pavletich
    
    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
    Capt Mainwaring … Could you report to the ‘Bill English Shearing School’ in Dipton on Monday morning for your career change … with Bill of course.
    
    Bill English wants to share his shearing skills with ewe | Stuff.co.nz
    
    http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/76855785/bill-english-wants-to-share-his-shearing-skills-with-ewe
    
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    September 21, 2017 8:59pm
    - All_on_Red
      
      Triggered!!!
      You’re just like Pavlovs Dog eh Hugh
      Good boy good boy
      
      32 1
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      September 21, 2017 9:02pm
    - igm
      
      At least Bill will be able to do something productive, not leech off ratepayers, taxpayers, or misled unionists as is the Labour/Green modus operandi.
      
      3 0
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      September 22, 2017 7:53am
  - cmm
    
    Good suggestion Captain.
    
    Hugh: If you live in the Christchurch area, I’ll offer to meet up with you at the Henry’s Bishopdale and contribute $100 to your sorrow drowning fund.
    
    Genuine one-time offer.
    
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    September 22, 2017 6:41am
- Ross12
  
  At 45.8 National is supposedly “teetering on the danger zone”
  So at 37.3 Labour must be completely stuffed by that stupid analysis.
  It looks like NZ’s equivalent of the “Russian involvement” is going to be the “lying tories”.
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:52pm
  - cmm
    
    Jacinda was already laying down the excuses yesterday:
    * Concern about tampering with early votes.
    * Bill was nasty.
    
    No Russians or James Comey yet, but I’m sure she’ll figure something out. After all the Lab/Greens are experts at playing the victim card.
    
    Perhaps the SIS bugged her laundry.
    
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    September 22, 2017 6:44am
    - DifferentPerspective
      
      Bill the mysogenist
      
      The playbook of the Left is fairly well known, if Labour lose here are the steps for Taxcinda to follow:
      – accuse Bill of being supported by a ‘basket of deplorables’
      – suggest that during the debates Bill was ‘creepy’ by smiling everytime that Taxcinda said “Vision” or “Transparent” when telling lies
      – suggest (based on a count back of how many times you talk only to student union gatherings at Unis and not on seats held in Parliament) that Taxcinda really won after all and that Bill “stole the country”
      – turn on the electorate and blame the loss on bitter old white taxpayers who stole the bludgers’ and the unions’ free lunches
      – organise a “pussy march” and line up every sad old vagina on the planet to suggest blowing up the Beehive because of Bill’s sexism
      – organise an underground domestic terrorist movement to physically assault everyone who is found guilty of Orwellian ‘wrongthink’ and burn down buildings in the hope that it will encourage stupid old white taxpayers to STFU and shoot themselves (I suggest Aunteetha would be a good name for the terrorist group)
      – publish a book about how the election loss was the fault of everyone apart from Taxcinda and it wasn’t because she ran a campaign that was based on identity politics alone and completely devoid of an economic propostion for the nation
      
      I’m having deja vu…
      
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      September 22, 2017 7:43am
    - Inandout
      
      I, I, I, yes she was all mouth this morning.
      
      3 0
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      September 22, 2017 8:04am
- All_on_Red
  
  Phil Twyford is a bigot and a moron
  Data from the Electoral Commission belies the idea of a ‘youth surge’
  You have no idea eh Hugh
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:01pm
  - Ross12
    
    They all assuming the youth will vote for Labour. Those that don’t vote National will be spread among Labour , Greens & TOP –all fighting for the youth vote. Don’t forget quite a few youth will also vote Maori to be loyal to their people.
    This all assumes the young will enrol and actually vote.
    
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    September 21, 2017 9:11pm
    - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
      
      According to Jacinda TV (aka TV3), all youth will vote only for Labour and I trust them….
      
      17 1
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      September 21, 2017 10:00pm
      - starboard
        
        …because I’m transparent, like whitebait, there ain’t much to me. NEXT !
        
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        September 21, 2017 10:33pm
    - Paulus
      
      My youth (23) Granddaughter would no more consider voting Labour – she works for a heavy Union based Government Department.
      And her two Akld degrees include Politics but she is not brainwashed despite the lecturer triers.
      
      4 0
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      September 22, 2017 8:22am
  - hullkiwi
    
    The talk for the past two days is that the youth vote hasn’t materialised, yet.
    
    However, new theory postulated tonight and repeated on Campbell’s Checkpoint by RNZ’s Political Editor Jane Patterson is that because “yuff” haven’t registered and there has been high turn out in early polling – there may be a high number of “yuff” special votes already cast.
    
    Talk about desperate and grasping at straws!!!
    
    As an ante dote, in the case of Mrs Hullkiwi and myself, we voted last Sunday at the polling booth in Silverdale and I can confirm that the polling booth was busy, but there was no sign of any “uff” voters at lunchtime on Sunday. So, does that mean the missing million doesn’t exist or were they still sleeping their hangovers off after the rugby the night before?
    
    4 ticks blue (out of panic/fear to stop Taxcinda)
    
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    September 21, 2017 10:02pm
Captain Mainwaring

Peters will never go with a party that doesn’t have the highest vote count, especially if it involves the Greens.
So I call it National/ NZF and grit my teeth that Bill either has the ability to manage Peters or kick him out and call a new election.
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September 21, 2017 8:42pm
- Hugh Pavletich
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  … with David Seymour too … I suppose.
  
  I really dont know what you guys drink at the National Party Tea Parties Captain.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:04pm
  - All_on_Red
    
    Says the fool who thinks Twyford, Lol Twyford can fix things!
    Sooo funny
    Go Hugh, Labours own Poodle. Woof.
    
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    September 21, 2017 9:06pm
  - ex-golfer
    
    Fool – on these numbers Nat/NZ First will not need Seymour and he will be relegated to the opposition benches.
    
    How on earth can you comment on anything to do with housing when you can’t even get those basics right?
    
    20 0
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    September 21, 2017 9:10pm
    - All_on_Red
      
      Too true
      He has no idea
      He lives down in Chch and doesn’t know what’s going on in Akld.
      He’s out of touch
      Poor little Labour Poodle
      
      19 3
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      September 21, 2017 9:14pm
  - Hugh Pavletich
    
    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
    Winston Peters and David Seymour working together … really ?
    
    Watch: ‘The day I stop to think about the ACT Party …I’ll check myself into a lunatic asylum’ – Winston delivers two fingers to David Seymour … TVNZ
    
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-day-stop-think-act-party-ill-check-myself-into-lunatic-asylum-winston-delivers-two-fingers-david-seymour
    
    … Winston with Guyon Espiner on housing …
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A39SFxdJY
    
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    September 21, 2017 9:21pm
    - All_on_Red
      
      Triggered
      Hey Labours Poodle. It’s either going to be Nats/MP/Act or Nats/NZF
      Fetch!
      
      17 2
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      September 21, 2017 9:25pm
    - Shawn Herles
      
      “Winston Peters and David Seymour working together … really ?”
      
      Bollocks. They don’t have to work together. WP only needs to work with Bill and National. ACT is just one man.
      
      And your claiming that Winston can work well with the Greens and Adern? Seriously?
      
      I could see him working with a Little led Labour party, if such a coalition did not need the Greens. But the challenge of working with uber-PC Adern and the Greens is a mountain range compared to working with National, regardless of Seymour.
      
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      September 21, 2017 9:27pm
      - All_on_Red
        
        ‘Poodle’ Pavletich is getting more shrill as desperation sinks in.
        Good doggy
        
        19 2
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        September 21, 2017 9:36pm
      - hullkiwi
        
        Shawn, the reality of Peters is he only works best with himself. So, if you have to deal with Peters you have to give him a bauble were he will stay out of the way (and can’t create a mess) as he did in 1990-91, 1996-98, and 2005-08. So, it is an impossible ask for him.
        
        The reality is he has always functioned best in opposition (because of his arrogance and ego), he just can’t transition to government. Maybe Muldoon realised this and that is way he never got promoted in the period 1981 – 84.
        
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        September 21, 2017 10:11pm
- DifferentPerspective
  
  I seem to recall a lot of abuse and contempt being heaped on the few realists on KB who have been predicting this outcome for these reasons all the way along.
  
  Apology accepted Captain.
  
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  September 22, 2017 7:45am
Gruffydd

Remember folks.
ACT needs only a few more votes to get more seats .
Party vote ACT is the best chance of representation for your vote you will get.
ACT only need to get over 1.2% for another list place.
They always under poll…
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September 21, 2017 8:51pm
- krazykiwi
  
  +1 Agreed! Great advice Griff.
  
  And better still when you consider ACT removed their climate change policy from their website 🙂
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:01pm
  - All_on_Red
    
    Act really needs to find a star to stand in another Electorate. Two MPs makes it easier.
    
    18 0
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    September 21, 2017 9:04pm
    - cmm
      
      Act only get the “cup of tea” nod because it brings in an extra party. Otherwise there’s no reason for a head-to-head Nat/Act fight.
      
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      September 22, 2017 6:48am
- AgentBallSack
  
  Remember folks. Marihuana is good for the brain.
  Gibber Gigger fucknoofle drool.
  
  17 7
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  September 21, 2017 9:03pm
  - Gruffydd
    
    I don’t need to vote ACT for climate change policy
    National is the majority party and theirs is coming along nicely.
    They have tightened the ETS and are encouraging electric cars.
    
    Agent Teabag.
    I do so love butt hurt wingnuts bleeding all over the place .
    Tell us to fuck off again.
    That comment graphically displayed the breadth of your wit .
    
    3 14
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    September 21, 2017 9:15pm
    - Simon
      
      Cmon Griff Agent has got you worked out.
      
      Gibber Gigger fucknoofle drool
      
      Ha ha ha. Don’t deny the science around stoners brains being fried by dope.
      
      12 3
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      September 21, 2017 9:32pm
      - Gruffydd
        
        Yip .
        Its a little like the pot calling the kettle back don’t yah “think” Simon.
        Ball sack has admitted to more drug taking in his life than I have .
        
        opps Simong and think in the same sentence.
        
        Never mind mate.
        
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        September 21, 2017 9:41pm
      - AgentBallSack
        
        Ball sack has admitted to more drug taking in his life than I have .
        I kinda, maybe, sort of, know something about it then.
        What you say is true. Been a long term dope smoker and meth addict. Gave up meth 12 years ago and haven’t touched it since. Kudos to me. Smoked weed for 25 years now. Can go without for months at a time. Kudos to me.
        Still don’t believe in “man made” Global Warming, rather accept the world goes through warming and cooling periods. No kudos to you. 🙂
        
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        September 21, 2017 9:55pm
      - All_on_Red
        
        Dope and meth.
        Is that all?
        You need to get out more
        Lol
        
        9 0
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        September 21, 2017 9:59pm
      - Gruffydd
        
        A P head accuses me of being drug addled .
        Shite oh dear.
        
        P is a nasty drug.
        Addiction does permanent harm to your health and your mental state.
        
        You don’t believe in atmospheric physics .
        Try not believing in gravity next .
        A jump out a third floor window should do it .
        Dont forget to tell us how it worked out .
        
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        September 21, 2017 10:37pm
      - krazykiwi
        
        You don’t believe in atmospheric physics
        
        What must I do to believe? Penitence? Sacrifice? Deeply intoned murmurings whilst carrying a sacred flame around an ancient edifice?
        
        4 1
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        September 21, 2017 10:42pm
  - burt
    
    Personal choice on weed or compulsory unionism. You’re not making a good case so far ballsack.
    
    11 1
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    September 21, 2017 9:17pm
    - AgentBallSack
      
      I dont mind the occasional joint burt. Havent smoked weed in 6 months though. Job is more important. Griff needs back off the bong. I could smoke weed every day and still make more sense than him.
      
      13 1
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      September 21, 2017 9:48pm
      - David Garrett
        
        Ballsack: If what you say is true about knocking off the P, well done you…I have to say though that as I understand it, an ex addict who can restrict himself to 6 monthly goes at the weed is a very rare beast…but if that’s true too, then a double good on you!
        
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        September 22, 2017 8:29am
      - AgentBallSack
        
        Thanks DG. I enjoy weed still, but would never touch meth again. Try to stay away from any type of ephedrine based medication too. I can take Griffs abuse over it, it’s nothing on the loathing and self introspection I have put myself through. These days I would rather have a nice cab sav. To each their own, I just like winding Griff up 😀
        
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        September 22, 2017 11:44am
- ex-golfer
  
  Wasted vote.
  Winston will never go into a coalition with National if Seymour is involved.
  So by Act gaining that amount of vote at Nationals expense it will strengthen the chances of a Labour/NZ First coalition.
  
  The only way to get a better chance of a National-led government is two ticks blue.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:13pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  Sorry to burst your bubble…No way on earth ACT will get to 1.2%. See no more will be their only MP.
  
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  September 21, 2017 10:02pm
  - dubya
    
    More’s the pity. Tracey ‘Teachers Union Shill’ Martin or Beth Houlbrooke? I know who I’d choose.
    
    7 0
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    September 21, 2017 10:23pm
- DifferentPerspective
  
  Upticked. I never usually agree with you Griff, but in this instance if you are right-leaning. It’s much more sensible to find a small party home for your party vote (in fact it’s 3x more sensible – given that in the last election it took 3x the number of votes for the Nats to be awarded a list seat than it did a vote for NZF or the Greens). The numbers don’t lie. When you ‘two ticks blue’ – you are in actual fact doing ‘1 & 1/3 ticks blue’.
  
  I still think it’s been too little, too late from Seymour to start speaking out during the last few weeks of the three year term. He’d have had my vote if he hadn’t been such a fawning lapdog for the whole term – that plus his catch 22 problem with refugees/immigrants courtesy of the demographics of Epsom).
  
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  September 22, 2017 7:50am
- Paulus
  
  Gave it serious thought for Party vote for Act to get another in, but we went to the booth yesterday and couldn’t do it – sorry.
  4Blues
  
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  September 22, 2017 8:26am
GazzaW

Do the advance votes now total around 500,000? If so there’s approximately another two million still to vote based on the 2014 turnout.

Two ticks blue is the safest option. The momentum is with us now and 51% must be our aim. We nearly did it last time.
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September 21, 2017 8:51pm
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  Couldn’t agree more Gazza W, but we already did our bit last week.
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:56pm
- smttc
  
  According to Red Radio this evening 800,000 people have voted already.
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:57pm
  - krazykiwi
    
    Yeah I heard that. Given …
    
    (a) the lack of security around voting and ballot box storage; and,
    
    (b) the inclination for parties to make new/changed/reversed policy announcements right up until polling day
    
    … I think early voting should be abandoned or restricted. Either way, they should be subject to much stricter controls.
    
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    September 21, 2017 9:08pm
    - AgentBallSack
      
      No politicking from the day polls open would be a start. Makes a farce of the election day rule.
      
      14 0
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      September 21, 2017 9:19pm
    - redqueen
      
      It’s also far more convenient for some of us and some of us dont really care about the lolly scramble anymore (or the latest poll). You may not like it, but it wouldnt have changed our votes, and it has given me peace of mind (as all the political nonsense is back to being amusing).
      
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      September 22, 2017 5:18am
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Yep! According to the shameless Media Party, all those votes are Labour only!!!
    
    9 0
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    September 21, 2017 10:04pm
    - Dafixeruppa
      
      They probably are all for labour and all on only 2-3 voting papers.
      Oh well at least I did my part
      
      1 0
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      September 22, 2017 7:41am
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  Remember GazzaW – In the 2 million who are yet to vote, 1 million is the missing million Labour will get this time….
  
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  September 21, 2017 10:03pm
- Fisiani
  
  Winston will lose Northland and come third. I suspect NZF will fail to reach 5%
  The total wasted vote would thus be NZF+TOP + UF+MANA +ALCP + the other wasted votes or approximately 8%
  If National gets a higher % then Labour+ Greens then the redistribution would favour National. The MP could go either way but ACT will provide 1 vote for National.
  If National is more than Labour+ Greens then we will have a National government
  
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  September 22, 2017 10:47am
Ultima

Paddy’s report sounded like an infomercial for Labour/Green and Winston coalition when the easiest path to power is a Nat/NZF hookup. Just a two party coalition with a decent majority. But no, Paddy wants to make it sound like its neck and neck between Nat and Labour when its not.
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September 21, 2017 8:52pm
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  Paddy is still feeding off the Labour suppository which is up his arse. Be kind to him.
  
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  September 21, 2017 8:58pm
- The Doc
  
  He’s just doing what his bosses need him to do, and what makes him feel relevant. Media organisations need either a contest or a trainwreck. They had a trainwreck until Jacinda, now they’re desperately trying to talk up a contest that’s not really there.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:00pm
- Shawn Herles
  
  “But no, Paddy wants to make it sound like its neck and neck between Nat and Labour when its not.”
  
  No, you’re right, it’s not neck and neck between Labour and National. Adern has failed to beat National. All she has done is rearrange the deck chairs on the Left.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:00pm
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Bros – Don’t count your chickens yet….The big polling booths at South Auckland could still tip the election in favour of Tooth Fairy….
    
    7 0
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    September 21, 2017 10:10pm
    - Tauhei Notts
      
      Who is paying for their feeds of KFC this time?
      
      1 0
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      September 22, 2017 10:00am
  - s.russell
    
    No, it’s not neck-and-neck between Labour and National…. But it is neck-and-neck between Labour+Greens and National.
    
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    September 22, 2017 7:43am
krazykiwi

However NZ First projected to hold the balance of power

Bill, if you’re reading this… some advice on dealing with Winston.

We’ve all seen the bluff , bluster and, frankly, lying that from Winston. He is an old battler, and quite possibly not in the greatest of health.

At this end of his career, the one thing he will most value is not power, nor baubles.

It is dignity.

Give him an opportunity to serve out his final political performance, and to end well.

But make sure he knows that raucous behaviour befitting an opposition stirrer will result in an ungraceful, and undignified end to his career… and that this will be entirely of his own making.

Carrot and stick, Bill.

And be ready to use the carrot to do the beating.
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September 21, 2017 8:57pm
- wally
  
  And guarantee him a knighthood if he behaves.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:07pm
- Shawn Herles
  
  Bill will manage Winston just fine. They are of a similar outlook in some areas, both socially conservative, and economic pragmatists. I can seen them getting along, but I struggle to see how uber PC Adern will get along with him.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:08pm
  - krazykiwi
    
    Can anyone really see Winston taking orders from Taxinda? Or what about when he finds out H1 is calling the shots?
    
    Not. Gonna. Happen.
    
    14 1
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    September 21, 2017 10:09pm
  - Paulus
    
    Winston on a personal level cannot stand Bill English but hope he will consider in his swansong what is the better part for New Zealand.
    His health will not help and his temper is poorer since he stopped smoking.
    But he still like the new BMWs.
    
    2 0
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    September 22, 2017 8:30am
- smttc
  
  Okay I am calling it.
  
  Winston First will not hold the balance of power come Saturday evening.
  
  All the “teach National a lesson” Nats have already gone back home because of Ardern.
  
  The Labour sympathetic NZF supporters will now rush to support Ardern and the oldies will vote for National to make sure they get the new $ promised by National as a super top up.
  
  Plus Winston has lost the rural vote by not telling farmers he will refuse to go with Labour.
  
  Blood all over the place.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:14pm
- The Doc
  
  Bang on. Bill will get all of that and manage it fine. The risk more is when Peters goes (vertical to London / Washington or otherwise) 2/3 of the way through the term NZ First could implode as Mark and Jones go at it.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:15pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  Wow excellent! Well said….But don’t forget the other nutters in his party….especially the Army truck Driver Ron Mark….
  
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  September 21, 2017 10:15pm
Dead Earnest

Greens tend to fall about 2% below polling at actual election. So dream scenario would be Greens 4.9%.Nats would gain 2.3% of wasted vote putting them on 48.1% which means they should just do it with ACT and the Maoris.
2 Ticks National
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September 21, 2017 9:06pm
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  And if NZF also gets 4.9 (Winnie is going to lose Northland) that would put the Nats over 50 which is a dream scenario as they won’t need anyone else.
  And not impossible.
  
  17 0
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  September 21, 2017 9:27pm
- soundhill1
  
  “Greens tend to fall about 2% below polling at actual election.”
  Which makes things very exciting for Green voters since just a few more of their votes just may count for a big difference in the makeup of the House.
  
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  September 21, 2017 9:33pm
  - All_on_Red
    
    Well, yes , that or even being in the house.
    Hey, what about that Metiria?
    She’s an icon of honesty and integrity.
    A real leader.
    
    17 0
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    September 21, 2017 9:43pm
    - soundhill1
      
      Yes Metiria admitted her fault, unlike Bill, Winston, who had to get their accomodation overpayments drawn out of them, and not sure about Paula.
      
      Indeed a very few extra Green party votes could make a huge difference to the House.
      
      0 25
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      September 21, 2017 10:05pm
      - All_on_Red
        
        Admitted fault? Yes.
        But no contrition.
        She’s destroyed the Greens and exposed their double standards.
        Lucky to be back in is a long way from where they were 3 months ago
        Good job
        
        12 0
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        September 21, 2017 10:11pm
      - Piniwi
        
        Time for your meds soundhill1. If you are voting or advocating a Green vote you are in the wrong place. They will tank on Saturday more than usual from their usual toxicity. Dragging them down will be MeTu’s lasting legacy of the best thing she ever did for NZ. All be it from her own ego and greed. KIWI’s do not like crooks and after her party backed her to the hilt they are as guilty as her. A fantastic 4% will be their reward.
        
        6 0
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        September 21, 2017 11:16pm
      - soundhill1
        
        Piniwi the media have attacked Winston and Bill less. People who aspire to lead NZ should know what’s happening in their own lives. The media could have made a lot more of it. But we know who own the media. And who have lots of shills and their sock puppets.
        
        And I’ll get a whole lot of down ticks for referring to Bill’s error but not Winston’s.
        
        1 6
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        September 22, 2017 12:20am
      - RRM
        
        LOVING the way the left keeps on sliming Paula Bennett!
        
        Even through they’ve got NOTHING.
        Just innuendo, lies and smears.
        
        5 0
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        September 22, 2017 7:11am
      - Fisiani
        
        Meteria has never apologised and never paid back the money that she stole from us.
        
        0 0
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        September 22, 2017 10:50am
      - Steve P
        
        I don’t approve of what Metira did but soundhill1 has a point: the media were WAY tougher on her than Winston. He knows he made the mistake that caused his overpayment but lied to the public – no integrity there! At least Matira was somewhat honest about what she did.
        
        Fisiani,
        
        – “Meteria has never apologised and never paid back the money that she stole from us.”
        
        Don’t worry, Wnnie repaid his debt “plus interest”! I guess what he means is we can take the extra money he gave Winz and use it to cover Metira’s debt. He took one for the team!
        
        0 0
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        September 22, 2017 11:11am
Rodney Randall

Polls = media. Money to be made off clicks and views, drawing eyeballs to their ads, like any other media.

“if it bleeds it leads”
10 3
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September 21, 2017 9:15pm
EAD_TWO

Party Vote New Zealand First.

Do you want to tell your grandkids that you were the one that sold their future down the stream?

http://votefornewzealand.com/
2 18
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September 21, 2017 9:39pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Election night results:

National = 46
Labour = 37
Greens = 7
NZ First = 7

Winnie the Poo cuts a deal with Tooth Fairy and forms a minority Labour-NZ First Government. The great unwashed stinking Greenies will sit outside and provide confidence and supply to this illegitimate Government and NZ will go bankrupt within couple of years.
2 3
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September 21, 2017 10:32pm
Steve P

NZ First wouldn’t have a chance of holding the balance of power if the NZ media had done their job properly. Peters is essentially in a position where he can be demonstrated to be a liar, but the media let him off the hook.

He clearly either accidentally or deliberately didn’t declare that he was in a relationship and therefore got overpaid NZ Super. He then pretends he doesn’t know how this happened – but note, he was VERY careful not to blame Winz. I’ve never seen him be so polite as when he was virtually singing the praises of the “professional” way Winz handled his case. He wouldn’t have done that if it was clearly a Winz screw-up.

Then he wouldn’t answer a reporter asking if he ticked the box on the form to indicate that he had a partner. Why would he not answer if he had ticked it?

And he said something provably a lie. He said he paid back the overpayment “plus interest”. Wins do NOT charge interest at all, let alone in that situation where they had made the mistake!

Conclusion: Peters directly lied to the public of New Zealand, and journalists have failed to ascertain that despite it being demonstrable.

A smart journalist would ask Winz, without mentioning Peters, “do you charge interest in a situation where you overpay someone due to an error you (Winz) made?

They will say absolutely not (they legally can’t).

Then ask Peters why he said he repaid the overpayment “plus interest”.
14 0
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September 21, 2017 10:52pm
- Piniwi
  
  True Steve P. Seem to recall it was interest and penalties which moved on from quickly saying he asked for and paid the total amount.
  Perhaps we may never know the truth but is seems there might be a question of how it actually came about. Making a false claim for NZ Superannuation could prove costly for the average individual. Intentionally or not. Wrong is wrong and have other more significant legal definitions.
  It is not without note that this is not now an issue he is keen to field questions on. After threats of legal action being brandished around have made the Media party gun shy or is it more compliant of him?
  
  8 0
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  September 21, 2017 11:07pm
  - Steve P
    
    I’d forgotten about the ‘penalties’ claim. Winz will charge penalties in some circumstances of outright fraud, but definitely not in cases where they are the ones who made the mistake. But naive twits like Gordon Campbell concluded that this was a Winz error, even tho’ Peters himself would not state that it was a Winz error! At the very least, this was Peters’ error, and he knows it, and he lied about that fact. This was a slam dunk gotcha for the media that would be HUGE for the journo who landed it, but they failed.
    
    6 0
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    September 21, 2017 11:44pm
- David Garrett
  
  Steve P: Great comment…and welcome to the best blog in town!
  
  4 0
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  September 22, 2017 8:37am
Piniwi

A reasonable poll result from this source and nobody should be surprised by the size of early vote numbers. The Electoral Commission are making an all out bid to get the voter levels up. To do this they have made earlier voting available and the unintended consequences that come with that.

Many older voters would include casting their vote with other travel like shopping or other tasks. Less crowded polling booths would also appeal to them and many commenters have identified more of this demographic in the early booths. The Media party are back to trying to beat up a youth quake but it includes pissed off students.They know an extra $1060 might help pay off their student loan while the REDS will make it free for others.

With this in mind it is likely early voters will be fairly spread over the parties. Region loyalty as well as old party loyalties will influence many as with every election. There is sure to be a lot of voter remorse in ealier voters since Labours position has started to tank. Mainly because a flakey leader with a fluid policy platform is looking very unstable. Well in time for NZ not to go that way.

The final debate illustrated how well Bill English has settled into election mode where he allocated the time to concentrate the effort needed. Labour’s continuous personal attacks will ultimately hurt them more than their targets. The cries of liar, liar pants on fire will be seem for what they are very childish and unsustantiated.
Calling opponents liars is unparralelled in NZ politics when it is their only counter for fiscal incompetence. It is impairitive voters see this before they have to suffer having to live through it.

IMO the polls indicate a strong swing back to National for the stability they have created and they say it like it is. No flip flops or ambiguity in their policy direction. There is still a substantial number of votes to be cast from mature voters. These form the majority of voters and it is where National will get increasing support. A throwaway party vote is a poor option as it might be the extra margin to govern alone. Tick Two 4 Blue to make it a simple mix in the house with a single party Government. Even WO had their party vote up to 83% rejecting Winston First unashamedly.
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September 21, 2017 10:54pm
- s.russell
  
  I suspect that early voters will be mainly people like us who are sure of their allegiances. If you are uncertain, you are more likely to wait till Saturday in the hope of a clinching argument.
  
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  September 22, 2017 7:53am
Richard

I heard there is still one more poll to go. It starts being released around 7pm this saturday night. No margin of error. No undecided. No phones or internet used. No polling company is involved. Historically its very accurate…
10 0
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September 21, 2017 11:12pm
Digmen1

Geez Paddy Gower!
There are six parties and “at 48% National is nearly in the danger zone!”

A fair reporter would have said
At 48% National is the leading party by a margin of 8 points!
8 0
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September 21, 2017 11:27pm
Digmen1

Oh well
Only one more day of the corrupt Electoral Commision pushing the youth vote with their ads and polling stations at Universities!

I just hope National do well, and I really hope that NZF and the Green both get under 5%.

The minor parties fluctuate so much in the recent polls.

I noticed that on TV3 they asked NZF voters who they would prefer Winston to go with and a big majority said National!
7 1
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September 21, 2017 11:31pm
lazza

So! … forget all the drama of past months as nothing! has changed. Winnie the Pooh plays the inscrutable Cheshire Cat and holds “decent” Kiwi voters hostage. As it will come to this level of blackmail let Lab/ Greens have him. The mess and clean out will clear the decks and admit a revitalized Nat leadership and cabinet miles better than the present one of yesterday’s woman/men … Ehhh?
1 0
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September 22, 2017 12:02am
Manolo

The future of NZ in the hands of the venal Mr Peters. What a disgrace!
5 0
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September 22, 2017 6:21am
cmm

The one good thing about Winston First is that surely this must be his last crack at it.

Next election he’ll be 75.
4 0
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September 22, 2017 6:54am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Nope, he will be an ex parrot, shuffled off the mortal coil, fallen off his perch . . . . . . . . preserved in Jack, Jim & Johnny and whatever else pickled his liver which will throw the towel in before the lungs.
  
  4 0
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  September 22, 2017 7:35am
  - cmm
    
    Well they won’t need embalming fluid.
    
    2 0
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    September 22, 2017 8:04am
- s.russell
  
  I wish. But I do not expect. Peters enjoys what he does, and won’t quit until he’s carried out feet first. He’ll be around for another 20 years yet.
  
  2 0
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  September 22, 2017 7:57am
Inandout

Duncan is wearing his red trousers this morning. Enough said.
3 0
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September 22, 2017 8:21am
Poppa

Where is Ztev? I hope he has not performed self harm

These polls must be inflicting all sorts of pain to the poor sod. Sad really
5 0
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September 22, 2017 8:31am
fluffykiwi

If everyone thinks that Winnie the Pooh holds the balance perhaps that would be a good place to start checking on dead advance voters. (if it gets down to small numbers)
The resthomes have advance voting. Easy to check.
Are they still alive at midnight tonight.
I cannot understand people who think a person’s vote should count because they have cast it, prior to actual election day even if they die because their intent was clear.
I know what my father’s voting intentions would be today, he has been dead 10 years, but I know what his intent would be. I know that is taking it a little far, but seriously what planet are these people on. Election day is election day, the day that counts. Just like census day. It is a moment in time, but an important moment.
It is not 2 weeks before, not a day before. So if you die before midnight tonight in my book bad luck, my mother was looking a little shaky when I took her to cast her vote. I have fingers crossed she will make it till tomorrow, she has her fingers crossed as well. LOL.
2 0
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September 22, 2017 8:33am
s.russell

As a matter of interest, I have looked up the final Reid Research and Colmar Brunton polls for 2014. They had similar results and on average,
National did 2.3% better than the polls;
Labour did 0.3% worse;
Greens did 2% worse;
NZ First did 1.1% better.
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September 22, 2017 8:56am
Rich Prick

What’s happened to the leftie trolls who usually infest this place? I must admit to be enjoying the absence of their snarky, and at times nasty comments.
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September 22, 2017 9:00am

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