General Debate 4 June 2017

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William of Ockham

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https://www.ecowatch.com/paris-agreement-breaking-story-2430495569.html?utm_source=EcoWatch%2BList&utm_campaign=1ba47a30be-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-1ba47a30be-86111021

Thank You Trump for Making Climate a Breaking News Story
Donald Trump has done what Al Gore, Jim Hansen, climate scientists could never do—make climate disruption breaking news. Trump’s histrionic and recklessly self-destructive decision means far more Americans know about the Paris climate agreement…

Trump did this by providing the climate crisis with what it lacked—a single villain. He has now cast himself, for most of the global community, as a James Bond style villain, a Dr. No or Goldfinger, plotting global destruction for personal power and gain.

… it will take four years for the U.S. to leave and the American people will have a chance to vote for the next President before we leave. So this announcement is largely symbolic. Trump also made clear that he would not honor the commitments …. we’re already half-way to meeting our Paris pledge and Trump can’t undo history.
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June 4, 2017 8:00am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Fuckedalready, not a good start to the day ?
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:09am
- Gruffydd
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  Que the addled projecting their own stubidty on you WoO.
  Those with TDS will get all snowflake because you dared to question the orange one.
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:31am
  - All_on_Red
    
    Oh the ‘stubidty’
    Poor DKhead Griff. I though snow was a thing of the past?
    TDS = The Daily Stoner
    
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    June 4, 2017 8:40am
    - stephieboy
      
      All on Red , speaking of stupidity ready with your trowel,bags of mortar and steam tramp loaded with bricks bound for Mexico /US border ?
      
      LOL
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:49am
    - Gruffydd
      
      DK to stupid to even know you are stupid.
      
      Classically illustrated with someone who says
      thermometers are only accurate to +- 1C
      Then complains because they use a break point
      analysis algorithm to adjust the temperature record ..
      Do you get why you have DK?
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:53am
      - All_on_Red
        
        ?
        Tell us more about how you think the Temp will rise 6C by 2100.
        
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        June 4, 2017 8:57am
      - Gruffydd
        
        The range of temperature rise for doubling co2 is 2 to 4.5C with higher probability for it being more than 4.5C than being less than 2C a fat tailed distribution.
        Those studies that project lower range have been disputed in the literature since 2012.
        The keeling curve is still a curve.
        At the present rate of change in trend we reach double co2 equivalent in about two decades.
        Another four or so decades after at present trajectory will reach double again .
        Do the Maths DK……
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:50am
      - All_on_Red
        
        What a liar
        1.5- 4.5 according to AR5. As for Higher Probability…
        From AR5
        ‘Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence)’
        Very unlikely greater than 6!!!!
        Gwiff knows better than all of the IPCC- lol
        Sort of makes a nonsense of your comments huh since you can’t get the base statements right. Good luck with CO2 doubling to 800ppm in twenty years too!
        TDS= The Dumb Stoner
        
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        June 4, 2017 10:02am
      - holysheet
        
        Hey Griff, whats this Co2 you refer to? Yesterday we were informed by your cohort in stupidity, Stooooopidboy that it actually is Co3.
        You two should get your story right before publishing your usual shit here on KB.
        
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        June 4, 2017 10:05am
      - Odakyu-sen
        
        Climate change is real. Just look back at the last series of Ice Ages.
        Question is: what is the driver(s) of this dynamic system?
        The four main variables:
        1. Solar energy source
        2. Ability of the Earth to receive this energy
        3. Ability of the Earth to store this energy
        4. Ability of the Earth to release this energy
        
        Discuss
        
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        June 4, 2017 10:11am
      - Gruffydd
        
        Slowly DK
        The IPCC report dates from 2012 the cut of point for accepting peer reviewed papers.
        I can give the papers published since 2012 that dispute the methods that suggested the drop to 1.5C . That would be pointless You would be unable to understand them on past form.
        You have yet to do the math or dispute the keeling curve .
        At the present rate of rise in trend in the keeling curve.
        Double CO2 will be in a few decades
        Double again in about four more.
        
        Do the maths DK and give a range of results that exclude 6C for double and double again CO2.
        Two plus two equals four.
        Four point five plus four point five equals Nine .
        The reasonable range of ECS for CO2 forcing from the keeling curve is four to nine .
        Yes you can use unlikely values.
        The fat tailed distribution means so can I to push the range far higher.
        
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        June 4, 2017 10:33am
      - All_on_Red
        
        Wriggle wriggle wriggle. You’re changing your story now. A ‘few’decades’, 1.5 now not 2. So funny to watch.
        There are Papers suggesting below 1.5.
        Your double and double again shows what an extremist you are.
        You must be heading for a meltdown soon- that and bullying Maggy
        The Dumb Stoner- lol
        
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        June 4, 2017 10:44am
      - Gruffydd
        
        DK
        
        Very unlikely greater than 6!!!!
        
        >
        yesss but we are not looking at one doubling DK.
        You do know what a exponential curve is thicko?
        You do know that the keeling curve is an exponential curve that is from the measurement of CO2 ?
        
        Even the obsolete high confidence numbers from 2012 give 6 as the mid point .
        1.5 plus 1.5 is three
        4.5 plus 4.5 is nine
        
        ‘Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence)’
        
        So It would be more likely to be over six than under one for one doubling
        At the extreme range for double and double again its from 2C to over 12C.
        or 6C +6-4….
        
        You are demonstrable to thick to understand even basic maths .
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:41am
      - All_on_Red
        
        Oh for goodness sake. I’m aware of Keelings work and how the graph is created.
        ECS could just as well be 1.5 as 4.5. (High Confidence likely in the range) They don’t know what the figure is for sure (science not settled) which is why they give a range. You assume the extreme end- naturally.
        Still, thanks for this discussion. You’ve revealed your nuttery for every one to see.
        Oh, and go and get some help for your anger problem. And if anyone sufferers from the Dunning Kruger effect it’s you. Talk about illusory superiority. The Dumb Stoner- lol.
        
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        June 4, 2017 1:25pm
      - Gruffydd
        
        Still haven’t got it DK .
        The keeling curve is not a best guess at human emissions its real world measurement of CO2 .
        We will see more than double if the keeling curve continues as it has. We will see double and double again by the end of the century.
        After repeatedly pointing this out you still are to thick to do the basic addition. Its only just seeped into your skull that double is not the end of CO2 rise this century if the keeling curve continues as is.
        
        Stupidity squared .
        
        I see your little buddy has gone .
        Told ya so last night .
        The whacko stuff was ramping up.
        Funny as.
        
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        June 4, 2017 1:43pm
- Kea
  
  Willy can you link to a peer reviewed published scientific paper that proves the US president controls the world weather ?
  
  We also require proof that “pledges” in Paris change the weather .
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:31am
  - Gruffydd
    
    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
    Kea can you link to any scientific paper that proves anything?
    
    Every scientific theory is an approximation of reality.
    Some closer than others.
    Science deals in probability.
    Proof is for spirits and math.
    
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    June 4, 2017 8:38am
    - CJames
      
      You still have a Tee shirt slogan mentality, the reincarnation of the unlamented Griff.
      Science is all about provable hypotheses. You have a bunch of data, you put together an idea of how that data is linked, then you make a prediction and test it. If the results match your prediction, then you have a theory. Otherwise, you either throw away your hypothesis or refine it.
      Read Popper or Feynman.
      Now, what is the proven correct predictions about the AGW hypothesis? Remember, weather isn’t climate.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:48am
      - Gruffydd
        
        Popper ?
        
        Philosophers, such as Karl R. Popper, have provided influential theories of the scientific method within which scientific evidence plays a central role.[6] In summary, Popper provides that a scientist creatively develops a theory which may be falsified by testing the theory against evidence or known facts. Popper’s theory presents an asymmetry in that evidence can prove a theory wrong, by establishing facts that are inconsistent with the theory. In contrast, evidence cannot prove a theory correct because other evidence, yet to be discovered, may exist that is inconsistent with the theory.
        
        Oh dear Popper agrees with me .
        No such thing as proof in science.
        There is only probability
        You just made an arse of your self .
        
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        June 4, 2017 8:59am
      - SGA
        
        Science is all about provable hypotheses. You have a bunch of data, you put together an idea of how that data is linked, then you make a prediction and test it. If the results match your prediction, then you have a theory.
        
        That’s not the way I understand it. An important part of science is testable hypotheses. The results of the test might support an hypothesis, not “prove” it (because other, different, tests of that hypothesis may disprove it).
        A Theory (with a capital “T”) in science is usually reserved for an idea of some note that encompasses a wide range of observations (often some sort of overarching set of ideas). This differs from common everyday use, where the words “hypothesis” and “theory” are used interchangeably (e.g., I have a theory about who committed the murder).
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:06am
      - CJames
        
        No Griffy, you cannot even read.
        I didn’t say correct, I said provable, in the sense of non-falsifiable. Big difference, ask any lawyer. And I notice you didn’t comment on the first part of your quote excerpt – could that be that it contradicted your argument directly?.
        By the way, rather than relying on Wikipedia to get your cod knowledge, go back to the source. Popper wrote “A theory is falsifiable, as we saw in section 23, if there exists at least one non-empty class of homotypic basic statements which are forbidden by it; that is, if the class of its potential falsifiers is not empty”.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:08am
      - Gruffydd
        
        You said
        
        Science is all about provable hypotheses
        
        And called on Popper to support it .
        Popper says nothing can be proven .
        You then use a discipline with arguments based on rhetoric The law.
        
        Big difference, ask any lawyer.
        
        does not follow
        law is not science.the meanings of words are not directly transferable
        You are even more of an arse
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:24am
    - Biscuit
      
      Gruffydd, scientists are no different to lawyers, ‘expert witnesses’ and Television Match Officials.
      
      You produce your one saying what you want him to say, I’ll produce my one quite happy to say anything to the contrary.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:55am
      - Gruffydd
        
        Ah yes
        you produce one who is paid to say stuff
        but sience is not a legal question in a court of law
        Reminds me of a case in New Zealand and many in the USA.
        https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/may/02/peabody-coals-contrarian-scientist-witnesses-lose-their-court-case
        .courtsofnz.govt.nz/acl_users/credentials_cookie_auth/require_login?came_from=http%3A//www.courtsofnz.govt.nz/cases/nz-climate-science-education-trust-v-niwa-ltd/at_download/fileDecision
        You need to prove the expertise of your witness.
        
        Good luck with finding a reputable scientist with a history of papers in climate science that disagree with the consensus.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:15am
      - SGA
        
        You produce your one saying what you want him to say, I’ll produce my one quite happy to say anything to the contrary
        
        meh – yes, there are areas of science that are contentious, but lots of it has very broad consensus.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:16am
  - stephieboy
    
    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
    Kea, so the future is in Coal fired power stations and their emissions courtesy Koch bros ?
    
    China silly investing in Solar Power as a means to cutting greenhouse gases ?
    
    Why are the so good for us ?
    
    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/china-worlds-largest-floating-solar-power/
    
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    June 4, 2017 8:41am
    - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
      
      Trump’s wall will help reduce carbon emissions: Laaa- ti-nooos will have to stay put with their low carbon output standard of living instead of upgrading to a high carbon out put lifestyle they are after in the USA.
      
      All Dirt World migrants to the West should be blocked immediately to stop massive increase in carbon output by them.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:54am
    - Kea
      
      “China silly investing in Solar Power”
      
      stupidboy, China is cashing in on the tax payer subsidised green energy scam of the foolish Western Gweilo 🙂
      
      There has never been a viable commercial solar power plant. The alternative energy business only exists as a way to access tax payer subsidies. They do not make their money from selling energy. Elon Musk is a master at this scam and has made billions without producing a single viable sustainable business.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:55am
      - stephieboy
        
        Kea , enjoy the sniffing and snorting fossil fuel fired emissions .
        
        LOL
        
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        June 4, 2017 8:58am
    - CJames
      
      As usual Stephy, you continue to prove to be an idiot.
      China is building coal fired power stations flat out, and has many more ready to be built. Go here, chose China then tick construction, then permitted.
      http://endcoal.org/tracker/
      How many GWh will they produce compared to the solar or wind farms?
      Do the same with India, then Vietnam.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:58am
      - Gruffydd
        
        What is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence .
        I much prefer demonstrable fact than WWWfactspulledoutyourarse .
        
        China is the world’s biggest polluter and more than tripled its coal burning from 2000 to 2013, emitting billions of tonnes of climate-warming carbon dioxide. But its coal consumption peaked in 2014, much earlier than expected, and then began falling.
        
        The economists argue in a new paper on Monday that this can now be seen as permanent trend, not a blip, due to major shifts in the Chinese economy and a crackdown on pollution.
        
        https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/25/china-coal-peak-hailed-turning-point-climate-change-battle
        
        oh dear their coal consumption is falling has been for the last three years.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:35am
      - stephieboy
        
        CJames,
        
        China lays off millions of Coal workers,
        
        https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600927/protests-rise-as-china-lays-off-millions-of-coal-workers/
        
        LOL
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:43am
      - Kea
        
        Chinese coal consumption has decreased due to a down turn in manufacturing moron.
        
        Sure the Chinese would love to have a solar powered country but it will never happen, and the reason is due to scientific principles beyond your limited understanding.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:45am
      - Gruffydd
        
        Either or a binary choice.
        yip who is the moron.
        Solar power is not the only renewable energy source .
        Saying china will never be powered by solar is stubidty.
        China could be powered by a range of energy sources including nuclear, hydro, geothermal, tidal and solar. Even coal if we can make its use carbon neutral.
        The Chinese GDP has continued to rise so it is not economic contraction causing the down turn in coal use.
        That is all you have parrot fuckwittery and assertion with no support .
        
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        June 4, 2017 10:00am
      - Jack5
        
        Steady now, Griff.
        
        You are quoting Popper on his philosophy of science in one post, and the debate rises.
        
        But then you lapse into : “That is all you have parrot fuckwittery and assertion …:
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:22am
      - CJames
        
        As can be relied upon, Both Stephy and Griffy show they cannot even read. They are talking about something not even referenced or discussed, then use that for ad homs. All you forgot was “Look, a squirrel”.
        Stephy at 8:41 originally rubbished Kea, implying China was going solar. I showed the facts that China is building large numbers of new coal fired power stations. These are 660MW or larger units. Makes just one unit 15 times the size of their solar farm, and it can generate at night.
        By the way, China is ramping up its coal imports, now the stockpiles are gone.
        http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chain-economy-trade-coal-idUSKBN1840C9
        
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        June 4, 2017 2:28pm
- Peter
  
  Yet another downvote for the gullible, frightened warmist idiot.
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:36am
- Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
  
  “Trump can’t undo history. ”
  
  He is not undoing history – he is undoing Globohomo scheming.
  
  Notice the ones shrieking like a c@nt on about this are all elitist liberals who fly everywhere on a private jet.
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:49am
  - stephieboy
    
    The life and mind of an Trumpet alt righter .
    
    http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-21-at-9.20.36-PM-1280×720.png
    
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    June 4, 2017 8:52am
    - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
      
      Oh please, you Leftoids slaughtered WAY MORE innocent humans than the Nazis. In fact Nazism was a reaction to the Leftoid mass murder in Russia, which started YEARS before the Nazis got going.
      
      The Nazi death camps were based on the Leftist gulags in Russia.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:58am
      - stephieboy
        
        “In fact the Nazi Death Camps were based on the Leftist Gulags in Russia.”
        
        Source ?
        
        Plus minus the Gas Chambers and Zyklon B
        
        LOL
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:00am
      - DifferentPerspective
        
        And let us not forget – Nazi-ism is a form of socialism – national socialism.
        
        SB et al like to pretend they never heard of this as it doesn’t fit with their world view of themselves – but they’re nicely progressing along exactly the same lines:
        – overt support for Islam
        – bully boy tactics coordinated under single colour shirt (they think if they change out brown shirts for black ones that no one will notice the similarity)
        – suppression of any view that doesn’t align with their own
        
        The conservative view has always been the only way to combat the fascism that socialism always devolves into. It’s the same today as it was for the past century.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:05am
      - Kea
        
        The Nazi were left in both name and philosophy. They were moderate lefties compared with the Soviets, though their treatment of certain minority groups was extreme and unhelpful to their cause.
        
        Hitler had a potential ally among the Jews and Slavs, but blew it by treating them like shit and murdering millions.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:07am
      - Longknives
        
        The Nazis WERE ‘Leftoids’ mate!
        Have a look at their Policies- Nothing ‘Right Wing’ about them..
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:42am
      - Jack5
        
        What the fuck are we doing debating with an Islamic or pseudo-Islamic troll team like the Stephiestanis?
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:25am
mikenmild

75th anniversary today of the Battle of Midway, turning point of the Pacific War.
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June 4, 2017 8:07am
- stephieboy
  
  The movie ” Midway” was very popular in China for understandable reasons.
  
  The Japs made the mistake of not taking out the carrier fleet whilst in port . On the 12th Dec it was out at sea on exercises.
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:35am
  - jms
    
    Sinking the entire US carrier fleet might have given the Japanese another year. Superior US production capacity was always going to win it.
    
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    June 4, 2017 8:41am
    - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
      
      In other words White was always going to win it.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:43am
      - jms
        
        Nothing to do with being ‘white’. Remember, the Japanese defeated the Russians at Tsushima in 1905.
        
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        June 4, 2017 8:45am
      - stephieboy
        
        Not forgetting the Indians , Chinese and other Asians who fought against Japan WW2
        
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        June 4, 2017 8:55am
      - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
        
        “Not forgetting the Indians , Chinese and other Asians who fought against Japan WW2”
        
        I’m pretty sure it was the Yanks nukes that finished off Team Yellow.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:00am
      - Psycho Milt
        
        Kind of ironic that the White Pride types consistently offer proof that being White isn’t inherently superior to anything.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:04am
      - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
        
        “Nothing to do with being ‘white’. Remember, the Japanese defeated the Russians at Tsushima in 1905.”
        
        Russians are Caucasian, but it is the British tribe and their former colonies the USA, Australia, Canada and NZ that have shined as bastions of Democracy and Capitalism.
        
        The other tribes just aren’t that interested or competent.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:04am
      - stephieboy
        
        Jazz Hands , that and many, many other things bought an end to the their imperial ambitions .
        
        White trash like yourself consider yourself a showcase specimen of white Supremecy ?
        
        LOL !
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:05am
      - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
        
        “Kind of ironic that the White Pride types consistently offer proof that being White isn’t inherently superior to anything”
        
        Feel free to pack your bags and move into the colourful and vibrant Third World dump of your choice.
        
        Funny how the only functioning democracies and Capitalist systems are all white majority.
        
        Funny how all the Colourfuls and Vibrants are desperate to get into white majority countries.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:08am
      - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
        
        ”
        
        Jazz Hands , that and many, many other things bought an end to the their imperial ambitions .
        
        White trash like yourself consider yourself a showcase specimen of white Supremecy ?
        
        LOL !”
        
        All non white countries are either corrupt Third World dumps or Orwellian like regimes.
        
        Feel free to move to the non white majority “vibrant and colourful” country of your choice.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:15am
      - stephieboy
        
        Jazz Hands , including say white Latin America ?
        
        LMAO
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:45am
    - Kimbo
      
      Sinking the entire US carrier fleet might have given the Japanese another year. Superior US production capacity was always going to win it
      
      Hmm. On that basis no larger economic and/or military power should ever lose to a smaller one, but history is littered with examples – the American Revolution being one.
      
      While it was always difficult for Japan to win in the long term, nonetheless as part of the Axis it was not impossible to force a stalemate on the Allies as there was no way to launch an offensive against them effectively.
      
      Despite the misgivings of Admiral Yamamato that Odakyu-sen records below, nonetheless, the Japanese plan in attacking Pearl was to and destroy American’s then-Pacific Fleet, and buy the time and freedom to set up a “ribbon defense” that extended right to the perimeters of the American zone in the Pacific. That included the Aleutian Islands in Alaska (which they did invade and occupy), Midway, Fiji (thus cutting the Americans off from supplying Australia and New Zealand), and maybe even Hawaii itself. Once it was in place courtesy of the absence of the American Navy to oppose it, even though American industrial capacity was always greater, they would face the problem of how to pierce the outer-perimeter, and then exploit it. And the Japanese almost got to put in place, but for three fateful “twists” of…fate/luck.
      
      1. The American carriers were absent from Pearl Harbour on 7 December 1941. That was doubly fateful as that action, along with the sinking of the Bismarck and the British attack on the Italians at Taranto in the previous year, proved that battleships had been made obsolete by carriers as the primary naval weapon. So in sinking the ships lined up on battleship row at Pearl Harbor, the Japanese did an unintentional favour to the Americans as they then had no choice but to use their carriers as the primary naval weapon. Which they did some five months later at…
      
      2. the Battle of the Coral Sea. And while that was a tactical draw, the significant outcome was that the Japanese thought they sank not only the USS Lexington, but the other American carrier, the Yorktown. But they were wrong. As tom hunter described last year on Kiwiblog, she limped back to Hawaii, and was given a patch-up job that took about 72 hours (when her repairs should have taken 3 to 6 months), and then she was put to sea less than a month later, and took part in…
      
      3. the Battle of Midway. And it was there, in a fateful 5 minute window of opportunity, when Japanese Admiral Nagumo dithered between arming his re-fuelling planes with bombs or torpedoes, because he was confused by a previous wave of attacking American aircraft that his intell told him could not be from any known carrier American carrier in the battle (i.e., the Hornet or Enterprise, as the Yorktown was supposedly sunk), so they had to be from the island of Midway
      
      …and because one of the previous waves of torpedo bombers from the three (not two!) American carriers had drawn the protecting Japanese fighters down to sea level
      
      …the next wave of American torpedo bombers arrived at just the right moment with no one to oppose them, and with the decks of the Japanese carriers strewn with ammunition and fuel
      
      …and in that five minutes four Japanese carriers were sunk, and the naval forces in the Pacific were equalised, with no “ribbon defense” secured.
      
      From that moment on, it was only American incompetence that could lose the war in the Pacific. And even when it did occasionally occur, such as Admiral Halsey’s mad dash away from protecting the immediate troop landing at Leyte Gulf in 1944 to chase after a Japanese decoy squadron,
      
      ….it was too late. Japan could never catch up, despite the insane bravery with which her soldiers, sailors and airmen fought.
      
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      June 4, 2017 12:40pm
      - Kiwi Dave
        
        As your previous paragraph implies, and I’m sure you know, it was a wave of dive bombers which did the damage.
        
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        June 4, 2017 8:51pm
      - Kimbo
        
        Quite correct! 😉
        
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        June 5, 2017 12:47am
  - Odakyu-sen
    
    Logistics were never on the side of the IJN.
    
    Marshal Admiral Yamamoto was a gambler.
    
    “Yamamoto strongly opposed Japan’s entry into the war; he feared American might. But when ordered, he would do his best. As commander of the Combined Fleet, he calculated that to beat the United States, it was necessary to strike first. “Yamamoto wasn’t a great poker player for nothing,” writes Morris. He resolved, as in poker, to “blow the best player out of the game, good and early….””
    Ref: http://harvardmagazine.com/2010/07/lessons-in-surprise
    
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    June 4, 2017 10:16am
    - Jack5
      
      Odakyu-Sen is right in that it was the industrial power of the United States that crushed both Japan and Germany.
      
      The next world war won’t be long enough for industrial power to be the decider.
      
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      June 4, 2017 11:27am
Monique Watson

Goldfinger? GD has been poofingered by the usual suspect.
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June 4, 2017 8:30am
Jazz-Hands Mc Feels

A noose has been “found” in the new Black history museum in DC, for the second time.

Gaystream media are predictably hysterical.

Who wants to bet a negro or some other Leftoid is putting those nooses there?
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June 4, 2017 8:41am
- stephieboy
  
  Jazz Hands , this brings you joy ?
  
  https://rapsta24.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/blackdeath2.jpg
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:44am
  - Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
    
    Does the thought of faking a “Hate” crime bring you joy?
    
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    June 4, 2017 9:10am
    - stephieboy
      
      Jazz Hands , evidence and facts that the lynching photo and others are faked ?
      
      http://flashbak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PA-2480694.jpg
      
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      June 4, 2017 9:15am
  - Kea
    
    stupidboy, great photos of criminals hanging. Wish it was Obama.
    
    You forgot to mention they were not hung for their skin colour. Was it raping a child ?
    
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    June 4, 2017 9:24am
    - stephieboy
      
      Squawks,
      
      Was it raping a child ?
      
      Sicko mind of an alt righter and Trumpist
      
      https://www.quora.com/Why-did-white-people-lynch-black-people-in-the-American-South
      
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      June 4, 2017 9:32am
      - Kea
        
        stupidboy, they did not go around destroying their farm equipment without good reason. We don’t see farmers killing tractors, though we would if tractors raped white women.
        
        Blacks had it easy back then. They would get free food and accommodation in exchange for a bit of light gardening work. But some of them could not help raping white women and had to be euthanised.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:50am
      - Jack5
        
        Kea, you are on fire this morning.
        
        May the Stephie troll team cook in your after-burn.
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:34am
      - Jack5
        
        Whoops, Kea’s after-burn destroyed his/her own tail!
        
        I see in another thread he/she’s just scored his/her 10th strike and a permanent ban.
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:53am
      - Gruffydd
        
        We have Norwegian Blue.
        Gee and I did predict such an occurrence was building yesterday.
        
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        June 4, 2017 12:05pm
      - Gruffydd
        
        By the way jack5
        You do understand the different between reasoned debate even if wrong and pointless trolling using made up facts.
        After attempting reason.
        I end up calling the conspiracy leaden logically challenged nutters what they are.
        Kea is one sick puppy living a a world inside its own head.
        Goodbye Kea.
        Cant say I will miss your screen licking.
        Counting down to.
        Kriss X or another iteration.
        
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        June 4, 2017 12:34pm
dad4justice

My word the lefties are out in force early this morning.
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June 4, 2017 8:48am
- Jazz-Hands Mc Feels
  
  The phaggots are SUPER TRIGGERED by alphmale white guy Trump’s heavy blow to the Globohomo project.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:16am
DifferentPerspective

The muslim problem explained for Kiwis

We all understand things when they’re put in LOTR terms – hopeful this’ll help some of those struggling to understand why refugees aren’t good for our future.
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June 4, 2017 8:51am
- stephieboy
  
  DP. very lame and weak.
  
  Stop watching fantasy movies for a change.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:02am
  - DifferentPerspective
    
    Who’s a pretty Polly?
    
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    June 4, 2017 9:06am
- Kea
  
  Is that the companion piece to The Jewish Problem Explained for Germans ?
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:06am
Viking2

New official advice on sea levels – no consents to build until two metres above high tide

Councils are going to be told not to build or approve developments or structures lower than 1.9 metres above the high tide mark under new advice on rising sea levels.

It’s a half-metre increase on the Ministry for the Environment’s previous advice a decade ago, based on new information showing sea levels will rise faster than anticipated.

The detail – and other new guidance for councils – emerged in a briefing document provided to a regional council and gives an insight into the Ministry’s delayed official guidance to local government which was meant to be published last year.

Predictably;
Green Party MP and environment spokeswoman Eugenie Sage highlighted the section in the notes in the briefing about central government landing the response on local government.

“That’s a failure of leadership. We need a partnership between central and local government.

“Communities like Thames, Kapiti Coast and South Dunedin can’t be left to cope on their own.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11868570

The notes accompanying the briefing stated: “Central government has largely left it to local councils to manage the effects of climate change, but has focused on providing information and some national direction.”

The Ministry for the Environment refused to comment.

The briefing document bullet-points weaknesses in the current approach, with local councils said to be seeking “central government leadership and support” and “community understanding and buy-in on the need to act on climate change impacts now”.

Thames-Coromandel District mayor Sandra Goudie burst out laughing when she was read that section.

“How many communities are going to want to put their hands up? They can spin out all the gobbledygook they like. What do they want us to do?

“They keep talking about the challenges. Where’s the money, honey? If they want us to do something particular like relocating, they better come up with the dough.”

So that’s the Mt. fucked all the way to Whakatane.
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June 4, 2017 8:52am
- Southern Raider
  
  So buy one block back from the beach and make a killing in twenty years time when it becomes beach front?
  
  South Dunedin deserves it anyway for inflecting Claire Curran onto us
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:09am
sooty

Angry. What did you stuff up this week and what did you flip flop on. Any tame journalist, give you a kiss and a cuddle.
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June 4, 2017 8:53am
Tauhei Notts

Last night’s rugby.
Our journalists are too one eyed so it was a pleasure to see The Guardian give praise, and I quote;
“Many of the Barbarians are part timers and their ranks include shop keepers, sheep farmers and nurses. How comfortable they were on the ball, however, showed an inbuilt skill set that simply does not exist in the northern hemisphere.”
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June 4, 2017 8:55am
- KevinH
  
  The Barbarians were unlucky not to win. They showed a lot of energy and commitment in the game and were easily the best team in the first half.
  The Lion’s lacked match fitness and struggled to impose themselves on the youthful Barbarians.
  The substitution of Bryn Gatland in the second half was an unusual choice for the Barbarians management because Bryn completely dominated field position and attack in the first half. Without Bryn in the second half the Barbarian’s attack lacked shape.
  Stand out players in an otherwise lack lustre Lions was Kiwi import Ben Teo’o who used his physicality to make several breaks and to provide a backbone to the Lion’s line defence.
  A shaky start for the Lion’s, they will have to improve considerably to have any chance of being competitive with New Zealand teams.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:40am
  - Southern Raider
    
    Yes there was suggestions Umaga got on the phone a half time and told them to pull Bryn off the park as he needed him for Wednesday night
    
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    June 4, 2017 10:11am
Maggy Wassilieff

As of May 2017 the Green Climate Fund (Paris Accord) had garnered up $10 Billion.
USA already had contributed $3,000 M
NZ contributed $2.56M
http://www.greenclimate.fund/partners/contributors/resources-mobilized

With the exception of USA, the other major greenhouse gas emitters -China, Russia, India contribute nothing.
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June 4, 2017 9:06am
- stephieboy
  
  Maggy Wassilieff,
  
  There is no evidence that is actually occouring as far as China , India and others are concerned ,
  
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/as-us-backs-away-from-climate-pledges-india-and-china-step-up/2017/06/01/59ccb494-16e4-4d47-a881-c5bd0922c3db_story.html?utm_term=.f64f934abbbf
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:12am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Did you read the article you posted?
    It says quite clearly (twice in fact) that neither country will contribute money
    But neither country is in a position to fill the void left by American leadership, or to foot the bill.
    
    Of course China And India are going to stay with the Paris Accord…. They are beneficiaries.
    
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    June 4, 2017 9:16am
    - stephieboy
      
      Maggy Wassilieff ,
      
      The report demonstrates otherwise ,
      
      Ensuring finance ,
      
      “..Some specific outcomes of the elevated attention to adaptation financing in Paris include the G7 countries’ announcement to provide US $420 million for Climate Risk Insurance, and the launching of a Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Initiative.[43] In early March 2016, the Obama administration gave a $500 million grant to the “Green Climate Fund” as “the first chunk of a $3 billion commitment made at the Paris climate talks.”[44][45][46] So far, the Green Climate Fund has now received over $10 billion in pledges. Notably, the pledges come from developed nations like France, the US, and Japan, but also from developing countries such as Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam.[… “
      
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement#Ensuring_finance
      
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      June 4, 2017 9:29am
      - Maggy Wassilieff
        
        You didn’t read my first link did you?
        It shows how much mexico, Indonesia and Vietnam have contributed.
        
        As I stated further up China and India ZILCH
        
        Here is who gets the money
        https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2017/06/02/green-climate-fund/87222cdf3186d472720bcb7cd28bd4e2286d4587/maps-Artboard_1_copy.png
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:45am
      - Ross12
        
        I don’t see how your bit from Wikipedia refutes Maggy’s post in any way, China & India aren’t mentioned .
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:52am
      - Kea
        
        “$10 billion in pledges. ”
        
        LOL 🙂
        
        I “pledge” a zillion billion $$$ to the climate fund. Hold your breath while you wait for it.
        
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        June 4, 2017 9:59am
      - Jack5
        
        Of course Stephie X didn’t read it, Maggy. He’s just trolling.
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:37am
- Kea
  
  Maggy these dimwits think that the USA, and a few Euro nations, are the world.
  
  The reality is the world is mainly made up of places like, China, India, Africa, South America, Asia. None of which seriously give a shit about this climate change nonsense.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:18am
  - stephieboy
    
    Kea,
    
    “None of which seriously give a shit about this climate change nonsense”
    
    Totally wrong !
    
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    June 4, 2017 9:30am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  As should we
  
  Zero has a nice ring about it
  
  11 1
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  June 4, 2017 9:20am
- G152
  
  We could use that money to build the houses the liebor/greens/peters party want done by yesterday
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:10am
DifferentPerspective

A new level in sporting excellence

Great sporting action today. I was particularly impressed by Real’s trouncing of Juventus for the Champion’s League title (again!). They’re getting close to the ABs for being the most dominant team in their sport (albeit at a club not national level).

However, the thing that really stood out for me was the unbelievably high quality of the cheating going on. Both teams seemed to have mastered the ability to play the ball, tackle, dribble whatever – all the while managing to continually kick, trip, push, stamp on the player with the ball.

This stellar quality fouling seems to be the thing that differentiates the super teams from the ‘also rans’. It brought to mind a Wayne Rooney interview where he pointed out that every time he got the ball against Uruguay or Argentina (in the World cup) he got fouled yet the whistle never blew once.

Once again, it’s a reminder of how blessed we were with Richie McCaw who is probably the only really, truly world class cheater NZ has had (not denying Steven Adams’ greatness in this regard – but he hasn’t proven himself over time like Richie did). Not only was Richie a superb physical specimen, a brilliant thinker of the game and a stellar leader – but I’ve lost count of the times I’ve heard NZ commentators praising him for how good he was at pushing the boundaries of the ball on the ground laws without crossing over.

I wonder is there anyway we can get Richie onto the America’s Cup boat before the inevitable re-match vs USA in the final? I’m not sure I could stand seeing Burling getting beat-down 4 more times by Spithill like he was this morning and we need to mix it up somehow.
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June 4, 2017 9:21am
Stars And Stripes

Im in Auckland this weekend Stephieboy and since you have been giving glowing reviews of Mt Roskill I decided to bury the hatchet and take another look this morning.
What a dump especially Mt Roskill shops on Dominion Road where pride is non existent now it seems with everything run down and dirty.
The whole area is a great case study of how to degrade and wreck a once nice place in a short space of time by populating it with primitive grubs.
Off to Waikumete Cemetery now to cheer myself up.
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June 4, 2017 9:34am
- Huevon
  
  It’s the same in all of the culturally enriched parts of Auckland…dirty, run down, no pride for anything. This is what we have to show for 30 years of mass non-European immigration.
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:03am
- stephieboy
  
  Stars and Stripes , the Mt Roskill shopping center may look run down and that will be a consequence of the relatively new extensive shopping mall opened in Stoddard Rd next to the Mount.
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:29am
- MCos
  
  I too was down Dominion Rd today. We had lunch at a Chinese noodle shop.
  I heard someone angrily blasting away on their horn at the traffic and angrily shouting ‘Let me through! Can’t you see I need to get to the cemetery!’
  
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  June 4, 2017 2:30pm
  - Stars And Stripes
    
    I was in a rush given the persons grave I visited only died in 1923…..
    
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    June 4, 2017 5:01pm
Inandout

A Muslim driving a car has ploughed into a crowd on London Bridge. A stabbing has also occurred.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/619658/London-Bridge-terror-attack-car-mows-people-police-presence-United-Kingdom-ISIS
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June 4, 2017 9:42am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40146916
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:47am
- Longknives
  
  Here we go again!
  All the Celebrities preaching ‘Love’, outpourings of Social-Media grief (‘I stand with London’ etc)and wailing about ‘Tolerance’ on Facebook isn’t going to stop this..
  When will people learn? Extreme measures are necessary to combat Extreme Terror.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:50am
  - stephieboy
    
    Longknives ,here we go again a call for a deluded world wide ban on 1.6 billion Muslims.
    
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    June 4, 2017 10:32am
    - Rachael Membery
      
      No just a NZ ban.
      
      4 0
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      June 4, 2017 6:44pm
- DifferentPerspective
  
  Clearly this was triggered by that evil, terrible, cruel, wicked, murderous, nasty, offensive Katie Hopkins’ suggestion about the UK needing a final solution that prevents muslims murdering UK innocents.
  
  As SB appreciated my last LOTR explanation of why these things happen I thought I might share another one to help him understand why there is no upside to muslim refugees.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:52am
  - stephieboy
    
    DP , you’re in personal contact SB .?Unlikely given you weak, lame and pointless attempt at humour .
    
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    June 4, 2017 10:36am
- Kea
  
  A car accident and a stabbing are hardly news in London old chap.
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:57am
Hugh Pavletich

Housing market could collapse on 7 percent mortgage rates | Radio New Zealand News

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/332051/housing-market-could-collapse-on-7-percent-mortgage-rates

The housing market could collapse if mortgage rates rise to 7 percent, given the increasing numbers of households heavily in debt, the Reserve Bank says. … read more via hyperlink above …
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June 4, 2017 9:47am
- DifferentPerspective
  
  Way to go Hugh! Muslims murder more people in London and you go on about your pretend housing crisis!
  
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  June 4, 2017 9:53am
  - Hugh Pavletich
    
    Different Perspective … Plenty more reading here …
    
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/06/weekend-reading-3-4-june-2017/#comment-2881876 … and … http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/06/general_debate_3_june_2017.html/comment-page-1#comment-1942268 … and …
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/06/general_debate_2_june_2017.html/comment-page-1#comment-1942227
    
    It appears things are coming to a head … on both sides of the Tasman … and quickly.
    
    Cool change welcome after five years of housing heat … Turi Condon … The Australian
    … google search title if blocked …
    
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/cool-change-welcome-after-five-years-of-housing-heat/news-story/d784109cebea500be6192de5feebfafa
    
    … Auckland housing bubble bursts …
    
    The number of homes available for sale in Auckland up 51% on last year. Stock also up in Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Wellington and Canterbury | interest.co.nz
    
    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/88080/number-homes-available-sale-auckland-51-last-year-stock-also-waikato-bay-plenty
    
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    June 4, 2017 10:17am
    - All_on_Red
      
      Hugh,
      When people apply for a Mortgage, Banks apply an interest sensitivity test, usually 2% above current rates.
      They’re around 5 at the moment so being able to afford 7 is already factored in.
      Also we had 10% + mortgage rates in 2008. How much did Houses drop then?
      
      The big problem is a recession combined with interest rate increases. People lose jobs and have to sell. More supply = price drop.
      Happy to help?
      
      9 1
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      June 4, 2017 10:22am
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        … Rooster today … feather duster tomorrow …
        
        Offshore funders freaked by bubble … MacroBusiness Australia (behind paywall) …
        
        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/06/offshore-funders-freaked-bubble/
        
        http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/offshore-bank-investors-fret-about-housing-says-anz-chief-20170601-gwi69r
        
        ANZ has some good news for us. The offshore lenders that enable the housing bubble are getting nervous:
        
        London-based investors in Australia’s banks are fretting about the risk that several small and seemingly well-intentioned changes in housing market policies combine to create a sharp property market correction.
        
        ANZ Banking Group chief executive Shayne Elliott, who has just returned from a week in London, said investors there are also worried that high levels of household debt have lifted housing market risk and that the government might seek to raise revenue from other sectors following the budget’s surprise bank tax.
        
        The Australian banks rely on foreign investors to fund the $400 billion gap between domestic deposits and overall lending to the economy. … read more via hyperlink above …
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:00am
      - All_on_Red
        
        Hugh,
        Is cut and pasting all you can do?
        It’s actually a bit boring having stuff repeatedly posted which most of us have been aware of for years.
        Honestly, all you are doing is harming your reputation.
        Up to you…
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:14am
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        All On Red … With respect to the ‘reputation issue’ do you have any comments to make on former National Leader John Key and the current governments non-performance on housing issues ? …
        
        John Key – Housing Reform – 2007 … Youtube
        
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWPgoAI1cLE
        
        https://www.google.co.nz/?gws_rd=ssl#q=john+key+housing+reform+2007&spf=1496532201236
        
        Check out my archival website as well … in particular the GONE GONE GOING section …
        
        http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org
        
        I started in this late 2004 in getting the Annual Dem Surveys underway with Wendell Cox and had plenty to say in the years that followed.
        
        Its hugerly heartening to us that there are so many out there now saying what we had been saying for years … and yes … we are more than happy to draw the public’s attention to what THEY have to say.
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:35am
      - All_on_Red
        
        Sure Hugh. Unlike you, I’m happy to share MY thoughts not cut and paste reports from others.
        Firstly, I was aware of your work (and others) way back then on how bad Smart Growth policies are. So don’t worry Hugh, I agree but it’s tiresome seeing it day after day after day. We get it…
        That aside, let’s discuss today.
        Unfortunately to fix the problem properly is probably politically unpalatable for any Party.
        You would need to:
        1. Take control of all planning, consenting and transport planning away from Councils
        2. Reduce Foreign students using Universities as a gateway to Residency. Stop their families using the Residency gained by the child as a gateway.
        3. Restrict non citizens to only buying new houses.
        4. Aggressively enforce the brightline test and make sure flippers pay their Tax
        5. Investigate the pricing being charged for materials and open up competition to offshore entrants.
        6. Bump up Trades training( doing this now but more would be good)
        I’m sure there’s more but I have to go.
        Your turn.
        Quickly, I think the Nats have tinkered and it is having an effect. But it’s slow.
        Hand on heart I doubt Labour could or would do any better. They really are a bunch of muppets. English is by far a better financial manager, but I would agree with you that Smith needs to go. They need a fresh approach.
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:56am
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        All On red … Many thanks indeed for your considered comments.
        
        How about we allow others to express their views too … and I will come back later.
        
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        June 4, 2017 12:35pm
      - All_on_Red
        
        Why wait for others. Your solutions are?
        
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        June 4, 2017 1:32pm
    - Captain Mainwaring
      
      Hugh, didn’t you tell us all this yesterday? Do you think we like repetition?
      Why don’t you go and mow your lawn or something?
      
      6 1
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      June 4, 2017 12:52pm
      - Happychappy
        
        Hugh:
        I ask you a question about Loyd Burr and why you haven’t cut, copy and pasted that or does the truth hurt what you have been posting for Labour.
        
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        June 4, 2017 2:42pm
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        All On Read and others … I have said consistently the focus must be on eliminating artificial zonal scarcity values and the proper financing of infrastructure. Please click on my name above to access my website … and read in particular the Weelcome Page and listen to heather du Plessis Alan interview with me mid last year.
        
        The big ‘foot-draggers’ are the current Government and Nick Smith in particular. Why the hell has Smith failed to pull together a GRAND COALITION on this issues mid last year ??? …
        
        Why are you Timid Tories allowing Smith away with his duplicity ? Remember back early 2013 when he was appointed to the Housing portfolio he was going to ‘smash those urban limits’ …
        
        Labour will fight the election on housing – 14-May-2017 – NZ Politics news
        
        http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=247888&fm=psp,tst
        
        Analyst charts failure of National’s housing policy – New Zealand Labour Party
        
        http://www.labour.org.nz/analyst_charts_failure_of_national_s_housing_policy
        
        …Bernard Hickey reported recently …
        
        https://pro.newsroom.co.nz/articles/1629-newsroom-pro-s-8-things-at-8-trolling-millennials-is-easy-defamation-retrials-loom
        
        7. Just in case you missed it…
        
        One curious coda to the RMA debate that concluded last week was that the Opposition parties plus ACT and United Future all voted again during the third reading debate for amendments that would have abolished Rural Urban Growth Boundaries and allowed the financing of infrastructure bonds paid for with targeted rates.
        
        The amendments were defeated by National and the Maori Party.
        
        The irony of a Government that has railed against restrictions on land development by councils voting against removing those restrictions should be noted. And also that the proposal for infrastructure bonds was backed by the right-leaning New Zealand Initiative and voted for by the Greens and Labour. Strange times indeed.
        
        NEW ZEALAND’S HOUSING CONSENSUS: WHERE IS THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP ? … HUGH PAVLETICH … NOT PC
        
        http://pc.blogspot.co.nz/2017/01/auckland-worlds-fourth-hardest-to-buy.html
        
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        June 4, 2017 4:16pm
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        In case you are wondering what my views are on Nick Smith …
        
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmbhzs3JcS4&feature=youtu.be
        
        Further information within the GONE GONE GOING section of http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org .
        
        Why are Kiwibloggers failing to haul Smith over the coals with his duplicity ?
        
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        June 4, 2017 4:34pm
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        HOW PREPARED ARE WE FOR A HOUSING MARKET CORRECTION ? …
        
        What’s getting underway now is a ‘buyers strike’ with financial institutions removing the excess high octane fuel … starting with Auckland, Sydney, Melbourne … then the rest of them.
        
        Note that the average median multiples for the Irish metros when it blew to bits there in 2007 was 4.7. It collapsed to 2.8 … putting all the Irish Banks to the wall and requiring a bailout of at least 70 billion euro.
        It’s still ‘mortgage mayhem’ there due to the draconian Irish debtor laws I understand.
        
        Subsequent research by the Central Bank of Ireland found it was high income multiple lending rather than high loan to value lending that put the Banks to the wall … and a general mortgage cap of 3.5 times annual household earnings was imposed. The Bank of England had earlier generally capped at 4.5 times.
        
        Australia is currently 5.5 average median multiple overall … New Zealand 5.9.
        
        Refer the schedule of Demographia Housing Surveys at my archival website http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org .
        
        I think the capital base of the NZ Banks is about $30 billion … Australia’s about $A165 billion … trifling figures when we now have bubble housing markets of about $NZ 1 trillion for tiny New Zealand and north of $A 6 trillion for Australia.
        
        Does anyone know what the capital base of the Irish Banks were in 2007 when the bubble collapsed ?
        
        I would suggest Kiwiblog readers do their own calculations of the bubble values in both markets … and ask themselves how the Banks and the Governments are supposed to cope with major housing market corrections.
        
        It is worth bearing in mind that there has been no sustainable bubble in history.
        
        Further helpful material …
        
        … First … from Ireland …
        
        Prof Bill Black & others discuss the Irish financial system performance … Youtube
        
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7zd5dRILBw
        
        This country still needs to get its houses in order ten years after the financial crisis began … The Irish Sun
        
        https://www.thesun.ie/news/1006506/this-country-still-needs-to-get-its-houses-in-order-ten-years-after-the-financial-crisis-began/
        .
        .
        … second … from Australia …
        
        The Business does the coming property correction – MacroBusiness Australia
        
        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/05/business-coming-property-correction/
        
        The risk is greater than the GFC if we can’t fix the housing crisis : John Hewson … The Melbourne Age
        
        http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-risk-is-greater-than-the-gfc-if-we-cant-fix-the-housing-crisis-20170309-guu4sf.html
        
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        June 4, 2017 5:50pm
  - KevOB
    
    There are limits to global monetary manipulation. Muslim jihad and global financial collapse are not mutually exclusive.
    I fixed my interest rate for 5 years a couple of years ago. It’s not hard to detect the presence of a bubble. When all the small buyers are talking about their prospects of getting rich and the larger ones have gone the market has topped. The FED has begun tightening. Look outside NZ for what is happening.
    
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    June 4, 2017 4:07pm
- Paulus Gnome
  
  And the housing market will collapse when the Islamic hoards take control Hugh, a small nuclear device in Tiahape or Wellington, and the loss of 3 nil in the Lions test series
  
  Take your pick and feel free to add to the list, there are sure to be more triggers that I, or you, can think of.
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:07am
- starboard
  
  You do know Hugh that when applying for a mortgage banks will factor this in already and see if the applicant can cope with 7% rates. I thought you would have known that. What else dont you know but pretend to? Should we just carry on ignoring you. Yes, I think that’s the best course of events.
  
  Good night..
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:20am
  - KevOB
    
    Yes, banks should look to capacity for a prospective borrower to sustain 7% but that means some will drop out; existing borrowers on 5% are going to be stressed or dispossed. Values will drop too so many will owe more than valuation.
    
    Hugh is right to be aware and passing on warnings. Our financial press is pitiful and their nonsense about the stock market ludicrous.
    
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    June 4, 2017 4:15pm
- Notsofast
  
  There is profound anger at John Key among traditional supporters who thought he was managing the GFC. His handling of immigration has replaced nurses teachers and police with lowly paid working students. The house market has been ratcheted up in a fashion that denies opposition the chance to explain there is a 30% artificial atmosphere we are stuck with, due to the certainty of losing the election through fear of policies that would remedy the matter.
  History is in the process of showing this administration to have done more damage in 8 years than anyone could believe plausible.
  Get rid of the bastards fast. They will continue to laugh as landlords anyway, but the legacy is shameful and venal.
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:33am
  - All_on_Red
    
    Now, now,not so fast, Aucklands house values have (roughly) doubled every seven years for the last one hundred years.
    But it’s all John Key’s fault.
    
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    June 4, 2017 10:40am
    - Notsofast
      
      John Key’s hench people lied when denouncing Phil Tywford for being a racist. This was the great hoax of its time, when you can replace scientific observation with bullshit statistics. Everyone knows to look where the funds flow originates, not the tax or resident status of the purchaser. This was deliberate poll driven and permanent distortion of a market to snare a voting base, who all in fact agree, the Chinese are laughing at us for letting them buy infrastructure with slave labour derived cash.
      
      Also note that the valid marker is affordability to buy or rent, not price. Wages have barely moved in the last 8 year doubling period, a unique circumstance.
      
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      June 4, 2017 10:51am
      - All_on_Red
        
        Guess you haven’t seen the latest analysis of who is buying. Or don’t you like the fact that some NZers are ethnically Chinese?
        If the bigot Twyford really wants to clamp down then he should pay attention to how the Universities and Polytechs are being used as a pathway to Residency. Of course reducing offshore students would mean a huge drop in income for Universities and he won’t do that because they tend to be Labour supporters in Universities…
        Oh and wages not moving much is not just confined to ‘the last eight years’…
        
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        June 4, 2017 11:20am
    - KevOB
      
      NO NZ government manages the GFC. They only respond as they do with an unplanned immigration boom. The numbers were unexpectedly high because of success here. We presented the best opportunities through astute management. Kiwis suddenly didn’t want to leave and others wanted to come home. We could not stop citizens returning so we had to deal with a demand that was 10’s of thousands extra over a year and it kept continuing. There are other more controllable factors too.
      
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      June 4, 2017 4:27pm
Nukuleka

I see that Martina Navratilova is leading the charge to have Margaret Court Tennis Arena in Melbourne renamed because she objects to Court using her right to freedom of speech and expressing her opposition to same sex marriage. It’s to be hoped that those responsible for tennis in Australia tell Ms Navratilova to go jump.
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June 4, 2017 9:53am
- Reid
  
  http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/06/blaming_everyone_but_herself.html/comment-page-1#comment-1943118
  
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  June 4, 2017 1:15pm
- wiseowl
  
  Nuku
  There was a very good interview on Sky Australia.
  Andrew Bolt had Margaret Court on after the attack on her and she was an absolute delight.
  It would be a tragedy to remove her name because of the progressives and PC idiots.
  
  5 2
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  June 4, 2017 3:46pm
Ross12

Well it looks like putting a tax on foreign property purchases does NOT work, as now seen in Vancouver.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-03/biggest-real-estate-bubble-all-time-just-did-impossible
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June 4, 2017 9:59am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Cue HP
  
  3 0
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  June 4, 2017 10:09am
- Notsofast
  
  “Which of course, is not to say that Canada’s problem has been fixed, but at least for the time being, the can has been kicked once again, courtesy of Chinese buyers who would rather park their cash in Canada than at home.”
  
  That is a quote from the link.
  
  And since this preference is driving traditional dwellers where their children have a legitimate interest in living where they were raised, from their community, should this not be a cautionary note for Aucklanders.
  
  Cautionary is a pretty weak word too. Yes of course the Chinese cash can do incomprehensible permanent damage. Should we encourage or discourage this damage? Teachers leaving Auckland is just the start.
  
  3 2
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  June 4, 2017 11:54am
  - Southern Raider
    
    Toronto is the same. When I was there all the new apartments going up in the cbd were brought up by non resident Chinese.
    
    Rather than quoting % there should be a sensitivity impact report on what would be the state of Auckland and other neighbouring cities if Chinese investment was only 1% instead of 3 or 5.
    
    It doesn’t sound a lot but that is a lot of houses sold per annum that could have gone to resident families (born here or otherwise) rather than just being a cash account for Chinese trying to get their money out of the mainland
    
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    June 4, 2017 12:06pm
    - Notsofast
      
      No one believes the activity driving the doubling of house prices is 3 or 5 %.
      All houses at auction were being knocked down to telephone bids from China or Chinese people in the auction rooms for years. The newspapers were full of the stories of young couples missing out. Remember??? 3% is a fiction the administration has got away with by playing the anti racism card that our indolent and pc media have been bludgeoned to submission with.
      
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      June 4, 2017 1:00pm
Southern Raider

Another terrorist attack on a London bridge with people’s mowed down and stabbed.

Climate change related or just another Islamic fuckwit.
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June 4, 2017 10:01am
- kowtow
  
  The scary thing is our govts and the media are in full on hype mode over keeping the temperature down by 2 degrees.
  
  The only major world leader calling bullshit on that distraction is the only major world leader calling it as it is on the real problem facing the planet, Islam.
  
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  June 4, 2017 1:11pm
oldpark

A gun and vehicle attack in London as mad dogs attack, peacfull Saturday night crowd on London Bridge. One guess who the terrorists are,or who they follow, from head Bangers United,or just peace loving hermit monks..15 to 20 people badly injured.
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June 4, 2017 10:02am
- Inandout
  
  ‘A cab driver told LBC that three men jumped out of the van.
  He said: ‘They just had these long blades, about 12 inches long. They just went randomly along Borough High Street stabbing people.
  ‘A young girl got stabbed in the chest, she was laying there – it’s so sad.
  ‘I thought, ‘I’m gonna try and hit him, I’m gonna try and knock him down’. I spun the cab round, I was about to ram one of them, but he side-stepped and three police officers came running towards them with their batons drawn.
  ‘I was shouting at everybody, just get away from the area, stay back, just run the other way. There were a good few hundred people out there.’
  ‘He’s veered across the road towards the right hand of where Southwark Cathedral is and rammed it where the steps are’.
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:08am
lastmanstanding

Terrorist attack on London Bridge. No doubt ‘they” will now say its the fault of the Christians behaviour during the Crusades thats forcing young Muslims to behave as they are because the Christians behaviour during the Crusades has traumatised them into these actions.

Heh “they” have used all the other excuses why not this one.
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June 4, 2017 10:03am
- stephieboy
  
  lastmanstanding , and your mindless and pointless attempt to ban and war against world wide religion !
  
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  June 4, 2017 10:38am
- itstricky
  
  No doubt ‘they” will now say its the fault
  
  But “they” haven’t. Please drop the cynical, over played, rubbish like Rich Prick on the other channel and comment with some sort real intelligence and hummility instead of trying to score points in your own personal triumphs.
  
  “they” have used all the other excuses
  
  You must have some extereme talent, or some super secret inside sources, to be able to tell which ones are excuses and which aren’t. But, then again, you missed this one and it wasn’t reported as the “fault of Christian behaviour during the Crusades”, so maybe the talent ain’t that good, and your sources are naff.
  
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  June 4, 2017 4:14pm
Manolo

Veteran communist Yoza will be delighted:
http://news.trust.org/item/20170603194811-7cbgs

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives have a lead of just one percentage point over the opposition Labour Party ahead of the June 8 election, according to a Survation poll conducted for the Mail on Sunday newspaper.
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June 4, 2017 10:45am
- Jack5
  
  Manolo, I think the Islamic terrorists’ latest attacks in London will put the kibosh on Corbyn’s electoral chances.
  
  7 2
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  June 4, 2017 11:40am
  - kowtow
    
    Who knows. May was a terrible Home Secretary , carries some of the can for the Libyan terrorists freely travelling. Her gummint refuses to prosecute the prime suspect in WPC Fletchers’ murder . Indeed they host him in the UK , what a fucked up world.
    These attacks are happening under her watch. Maybe people will react by giving her the arse.
    
    Corbyn will be wrse but electorates are fickle things. Half don’t even bother!
    
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    June 4, 2017 1:55pm
lastmanstanding

The ‘religion” has declared war on all non believers.

Reality.
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June 4, 2017 11:15am
- stephieboy
  
  lastmanstanding , so what are you going to do about it ?
  
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  June 4, 2017 1:03pm
- kowtow
  
  Padriv has invited cocksucker troll stupidboy to a carpark over on the Muslim terror post.
  
  Cocksucker hasn’t responded.
  
  What’s cocksucker going to do .Other than continually troll.
  
  12 4
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  June 4, 2017 1:08pm
  - stigie
    
    “What’s cocksucker going to do”
    
    Cocksucker will ask more stupid questions from people here and cocksucker will give no answers !~
    
    9 3
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    June 4, 2017 2:06pm
  - mikenmild
    
    Your approval of threats of violence against other Kiwibloggers is noted as a positive strep towards combatting Islamic terrorism.
    
    3 8
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    June 4, 2017 6:38pm
  - Gabby
    
    I guess padrivel has given up his fake musselman act then. Shame. That was fucking hilarious.
    
    2 3
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    June 4, 2017 10:45pm
- Gabby
  
  Boycott muslim oil.
  
  5 4
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  June 4, 2017 1:31pm
- KevOB
  
  That was declared over 1,300 years ago.
  
  1 0
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  June 4, 2017 4:33pm
Jack5

China is monitoring Chinese students in Australia.

I wonder if it’s doing the same in NZ?

http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2017/chinas-operation-australia/soft-power.html
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June 4, 2017 2:24pm
- kowtow
  
  If they’re doing it there you can be damn sure it’s going on here.
  
  4 0
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  June 4, 2017 4:10pm
- stephieboy
  
  Jack 5 , yellow peril issues ?
  
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  June 4, 2017 7:05pm
big bruv

I note that the UK and Irish Lions were subjected to yet another stone age display of obese Maori shouting and screaming at them today. Just how many times are we going to force these chaps to face this crap?
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June 4, 2017 6:10pm
- mikenmild
  
  As often as they want to come and get beaten by the All Blacks. Experiencing our culture will be the high point of the tour for them.
  
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  June 4, 2017 6:30pm
  - nasska
    
    The only real NZ culture they’re likely to face would come in a punnet of Yoplait.
    
    Fat, abusive, hysterical natives shouting primitive war chants do not a culture make!
    
    7 1
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    June 4, 2017 6:56pm
    - mikenmild
      
      They should really have been treated to a traditional Kiwi welcome at a large booze barn, with Ten Guitars playing over the stereo, followed by an Elvis impersonator night and capped off by everyone chundering in the car park.
      
      4 1
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      June 4, 2017 7:02pm
      - nasska
        
        Can’t fault that. After all it’s at least a realistic artistic representation of how our primitives interact. 🙂
        
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        June 4, 2017 7:06pm
      - mikenmild
        
        When Masterton hosted the Georgian rugby team in 2001, how did the cultural greetings go? Tea and scones at chez nasska, or huffing butane in the Cameron Block?
        
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        June 4, 2017 7:42pm
      - nasska
        
        Probably a 9kg cylinder in the heart of the Cameron block would be my bet Mike.
        
        Our local primitives are big on tradition. 🙂
        
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        June 4, 2017 7:46pm
      - Jack5
        
        Milky at 6.30 talks of “our culture”.
        
        Didn’t realise you were tangata whenua, Milky.
        
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        June 4, 2017 7:50pm
      - mikenmild
        
        Born in this land, I too am part of its culture and heritage.
        
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        June 4, 2017 7:54pm
    - stephieboy
      
      nasska , introduce a pre celtic Maori cultural element ?
      
      LOL
      
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      June 4, 2017 7:06pm
      - Rachael Membery
        
        Love that you admit the possibility of there being Celts here before Maori.
        Why do Maori get accorded a M and Celts a c?
        Is it you that does that to Trump too?
        
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        June 5, 2017 5:14am
Tauhei Notts

Sunday drive today with “her indoors” and stop at an old book shop. $8 got me The John A. Lee diaries 1936-40.
Then I saw a bit written 80 years before its time.
21 September 1937 he mentions an unpublished book titled, “The Politician and The Fairy”
How prescient to mention a book about Andrew Little and his deputy 80 years and 2 days before their demise.
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June 4, 2017 6:56pm
- nasska
  
  When they get around to rewriting that particular bit of NZ’s history your views are unlikely to prevail Tauhei. 🙂
  
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  June 4, 2017 7:00pm
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  His posthumously published novel,,, The Politician was written 50 years earlier as “The politician and the fairy”
  
  someone made a PC editorial decision http://www.bookcouncil.org.nz/writer/lee-john-a/
  
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  June 4, 2017 8:06pm
big bruv

Prepare yourself for a full on display of Key derangement syndrome tomorrow as we awake to the news that John Key has been knighted.
I expect that obese wanker Bradbury to have a complete meltdown.
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June 4, 2017 7:27pm
- mikenmild
  
  I’m actually expecting the news will be that he does not want to be ‘Sir John Key’, so has graciously agreed to accept the higher honour of the Order of New Zealand.
  
  3 6
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  June 4, 2017 7:38pm
  - nasska
    
    And have to rub shoulders with the like of Helen Clark, Jim Bolger, Ken Douglas & Peter Gluckman?
    
    Dear God! Our JK deserves far better than that!
    
    4 0
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    June 4, 2017 7:52pm
    - mikenmild
      
      Perhaps he could be granted the Freedom of Eketahuna.
      
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      June 4, 2017 8:24pm
Sir Leslie Bottocks

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:apSygsyQUogJ:m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm%3Fc_id%3D1%26objectid%3D11869410+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz
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June 4, 2017 7:36pm
nasska

Little Johnny was gravely ill in Starship Hospital & sadly he passed away. As per his dying wishes his favourite rugby team were pall bearers for his coffin.

His mother said, “he always wanted the Auckland Blues to let him down one last time”.
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June 4, 2017 8:22pm
kieranT

After checking some key data to see if your hypothesis of an Irish like crash is likely in NZ it appears for many reasons that an “Irish like crash” in NZ property values is NOT POSSIBLE in the next few years anyway.

(DISCLAIMER; I’m not saying there’s no softening expected in the cyclical property slump around the corner but am saying their is no HUGE LOOMING CRASH);
1) LOW OVERALL LVR = NZ has $1 Trillion of res property value. Debt on mortgages is just $231Bn. Thats a 23% LVR overall. http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c35
2) HIGH NET MIGRATION = Net migration continues to rise to record levels and traditionally takes 18 months to 2 years after a peak to fall significantly. See the graph since 1971 at http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_MRMar17.aspx
3) UNDERBUILDING = We have a housing shortage of 60,000 homes http://beta.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11799625
4) A NORMAL CYCLE = The property cycle from 2009-17 has been no greater than previous cycles in NZ, http://www.interest.co.nz/property/87961/adjusting-inflation-gains-house-prices-past-four-years-are-actually-nothing-special

and “How does this housing cycle rate against the last 4? – The Bob Dey Property Report
Seagars valuer Reid Quinlan has graphed national housing movements over the last 4 cycles to compare with the present one, where he says we’re 5.5 years into a 10-year cycle.”
http://www.propbd.co.nz/housing-cycle-rate-last-4/

Cursory glance at the Irish pre crash reveals a few major anomalies when comparing to NZ market;

1) VERY LOW YIELDS gross rental yields in Dublin averaged 2% p.a. (Thats equivalent to a $1Million property renting for $384/week.) https://web.archive.org/web/20060820055524/http://www.davydirect.ie/other/pubarticles/econcr20060329.pdf
2) PROLONGED OVERBUILDING The Irish crash was preceeded by years of overbuilding. ” From 2000, approximately 75,000 housing units were built every year as detailed by the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

At the same time their population growth was 100,000 p.a. which only created enough demand for 40,000 housing units per annum (at 2.5 people/ household) https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/population
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June 5, 2017 9:37am

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