The Maori-Mana deal

The Herald reports:

In a bid to win back all seven Maori seats, Mana Movement will contest only the Te Tai Tokerau seat at this year’s election while Maori Party will not stand in that electorate.

The announcement was made this morning as the two parties signed an agreement in Whangarei.

Peace moves between the two parties have been going on since last July when Maori Party president Tukoroirangi Morgan approached Mana’s leader Hone Harawira.

Lisa McNab, Mana Movement president, said the agreement would allow the two parties to carry a strong mandate to win all seven Maori seats.

No surprise this. What might it mean in the seven seats:

First a caveat. We should not assume that having one candidate drop out will mean their votes go to the other. Labour MPs will probably pick up some of the votes of the candidate not standing. Also other factors are who actually stands this time for the Maori Party and how good a job the Labour MP is seen as having done.

The three seats most at risk are Tamaki Makaurau, Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Hauauru. The combined Maori and Mana vote exceeds the Labour candidate vote.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Te Tai Tonga look fairly safe for Labour unless Maori Party has a star candidate. Hauraki-Waikato extremely safe and Flavell safe of course to retain Waiariki.