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October 30, 2007 10:49am by David Farrar

General Debate 30 October 2007

Reshuffles, punches, polls, policies, rugby league, Auckland Royal Commission – go for it.

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krazykiwi

Anyone notice how the Herald has story about National well ahead in the polls, but the side photo is (as usual) of Helen?
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October 30, 2007 10:51am
pdm

How is Clark almost 20 points ahead of Key in the same poll? Assuming the same people were asked it just doesn’t make sense.
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October 30, 2007 10:54am
vto

helen supporters, question for you – you know “defending womans honour” “boys being boys” etc

IS IT NEVER OK?

OR IS IT OK SOMETIMES?
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October 30, 2007 10:55am
insider

Like spot market prices, polls go up and go down. Look at the trends instead.
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October 30, 2007 10:57am
Inventory2

I’m still curious….. if Trevor Mallard’s new relationship is with a woman named Brenda, why did the name “Sharon” upset him so much?
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October 30, 2007 10:59am
Frank.

Herald-DigiPoll survey. It has 51.2 per cent support. Labour trails on 38.8.
But
Prime Minister Helen Clark has kept her substantial lead over National leader John Key as preferred Prime Minister – 50.8 per cent to 37.3.

First result = Anything but Labour?
Second result = John Key less trusted than Helen?

There’s a dilema out there amongst the voting public!
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October 30, 2007 11:06am
Andrew W

You know damn well Inventory, it’s because Brenda wasn’t supposed to know about Sharon OK? That’s about the 4th time you’ve asked!
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October 30, 2007 11:08am
Buggerlugs

How about those losers at the Tertiary Education Commission lumping all polytechs and institutes of technology in with basket cases like the Wananga and deciding they have to cut student numbers?

In Chch, a cut of trades programmes will leave a shortage of tradesmen – they’re screaming for more provision in Canterbury, not less.

In Southland, there’s a projected 18000 deficit in skilled labour over the next 10 years – but the TEC wants the polytech there to cut numbers too.

Janice Shiner at the TEC will shoot through back to Pommyland next year, leaving her legacy as yet another policy fuckup under this wombling Gummint. So much for the highly skilled knowledge economy…
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October 30, 2007 11:14am
slightlyrighty

So in the same week that the Wellington health board sets up a chartiable organisation to raise funds for soft furnishings and other public facilities for it’s new hospital because the funds aren’t there, the ministry of health is forced to announce they have spent 6 million refitting it’s offices on the Terrace in Wellington.

Nice to see priorities at work isn’t it?
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October 30, 2007 11:22am
vto

bit like top half of the oecd buggerlugs
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October 30, 2007 11:22am
Sam

Not enough skilled labourers – then blame the govt…

Really? – come on…

If trades are desperately crying out for staff, then how’s about they develop some initiative and spend some of their own time and resources in training and retention – lord knows they are creaming it at the moment anyway… There is nothing stopping them from doing this off their own bat rather than whinging about the govt.

Polytechs contributing to the so-called knowledge economy is a bit of an oxymoron too…
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October 30, 2007 11:25am
slightlyrighty

Speaking of health issues, I see MOVEMBER is back!

Kind of like growing your own pink ribbon I guess. Get into it guys. It is a worthy cause. Women have shown us how to raise awareness about health issues particular to them. We blokes are being left behind. Grow a mo, give a damn!
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October 30, 2007 11:27am
cv

Sam, can you please elaborate on the polytech oxymoron? ironically i’m feeling a bit simple
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October 30, 2007 11:29am
dime

how bout

party vote – national, cause everyone hates labour.

preferred PM – helen – cause the dumb fucks that were asked only know her name
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October 30, 2007 11:32am
Letterman

The Labour Government is currently funding an anti-violence campaign in the media with the catch phrase ‘It’s not OK”.

A Labour Cabinet Minister, Trevor Mallard, assaults a National MP, Tau Henare – within the grounds of Parliament.

The Prime Minister, Helen Clark, excuses her Ministers errant behaviour with the words “he felt he was defending a woman’s integrity”, tacitly implying that defending a woman’s integrity is a rationale for violence.

This of course is the same Prime Minister who, during the 2005 Election campaign, expressed deep offence as a feminist at being treated with graceful courtesy by then National Party Leader Don Brash during a heated live media debate, courtesy which she openly mocked Dr Brash for extending to her as a woman.

Honestly, I am now convinced that if one is a Member of Parliament, one can truly be excused for any behaviour, illegal or otherwise. Cheated on your nationality status (Harry Duynhoven), or illegally overspent your election budget? Retrospective legislation. Majority of the voting population vote for or against a particular issue via referendum? Vote opposite to the public will. Getting criticised for Government initiatives by the public? Censor free speech via the Electoral Finance Bill. Maori request a hearing about proposed land rights within the appropriate jurisdiction (Maori Land Court)? Take the entire foreshore and seabed.

The pot is heating up, and the frog inside the pot is slowly cooking – wonder if the frog will wake up in time?
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October 30, 2007 11:35am
krazykiwi

slightlyrightly, re: hospitals/MoH spending… i noticed the same thing. pretty disgusting… but it’s typical of this government i’m afraid.

there was the same problem last week with reported under-funding of schools while MoE bureaucrats salaries’ have been bloating into the stratosphere.
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October 30, 2007 11:35am
Inventory2

AndrewW said “You know damn well Inventory, it’s because Brenda wasn’t supposed to know about Sharon OK? That’s about the 4th time you’ve asked!”

Third time actually Andrew, but every answer has been different. Yours is the most logical though!
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October 30, 2007 11:37am
RossK

The reason NZ has a shortage of skilled workers (not necessarily just educated workers) is because NZ is, in Western World terms, a poor country. Hence kiwis flee to a higher wealth country, Australia, England or whatever else takes their fancy, and the gaps they leave behind are filled by people from either developing countries of countries that operate under a less pleasant political system. The effect is most acute in the area of skilled workers because wages and salary have not increased as much as capital returns, so an investment in upskilling one’s self as a worker is very unwise – hence if one ever wants to be wealthy in New Zealand one either has to go into business (DISCLAIMER – I am not claiming that all business people are wealthy or that those who are wealthy are underserving), trade in capital assets, or flee to a higher wealth economy where one can at least hope to save enough to be wealthy when one brings it back to NZ. Most western world conomies are suffering this same effect. Of course the skiller workers in a place like England look to move to a lower wealth country like NZ a little bit later in life when they have accumulated enough wealth for the pitiful NZ wages and salary not to matter. There is something fishy about the whole damn system and frankly I think it is that returns to labour have gotten too low while rturns to capital have gotten too high – creating a a self perpetuating cycle. Look at houses. If the majority of people simply refused to buy at inflated prices the values would drop but people don’t work that way – they are petrified of missing out.
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October 30, 2007 11:39am
David Farrar

The preferred PM question means little (except to party leaders) as 95% of the time the PM will always be the Preferred PM. It is almosy unheard of for an Opposition Leader to be ahead of the Pm except in an election campaign.

the fact Rudd has been ahead of Howard for many months in Aussie is one reason Libs/Nats there are toast.

Bolger won a huge 1990 victory despite being single figures Preferred PM. You do not need to win the preferred PM poll – you just need to win the party vote.
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October 30, 2007 11:42am
RossK

Preferred becasue she is so pretty?? Where’s oil sheik when you need a good self esteem boost and some relief from your brawling cro-magnon ministers??
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October 30, 2007 11:44am
Sam

The distinction between polytechs and universities is that universities are supposed to teach and generate new knowledge, and it is new knowledge that the ‘knowledge economy’ depends upon (this could equally come from industry r&d – an area where NZ performs poorly, so we have to rely on the flawed model that is our University system)… In my view if the govt is serious about the knowledge economy, it is industry that needs the kick up the backside (or the carrot rather than the stick – not up the backside though).

It jars when businesses crybaby for more of this and that, yet wail at the nanny state for being too involved in private interests. I would have thought that in business (as in much of life) initiative pays, yet squeky wheeling seems to be the preferred route (generally).

Getting back to the question, Polytechs have no such charter, and are (generally) a skills (rather than knowledge) based teaching platform…
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October 30, 2007 11:55am
RossK

High interest rates kill long term investment and r & d spending. Who can justify large initial investments with a deferred return on investment when 7 or 8% interest rates mean that future cashflows must be discounted significantly to arrive at a net present value (which is also why education has proven to be such a bad investment for so many on an indivdual level). Unless the investment / r & d brings the possibility of ludicrously high returns then it is just too damn risky for business to entertain. Low interest rates however would mean that forgoing a little income now for a greater income in 10 years time was sensible. That is why we need government to make these “irrational” investments in the future. Roll on the days of low interest and nil capital gains I say.
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October 30, 2007 12:02pm
Gerrit

With this government having set a precedent by witholding a visa for a Fijian footbal player because of his tenious army links.

What will happen in 2011 when Fiji sends their squad here to compete in the Rugby World Cup.

Will each be vetted for army links and if any are found by barred from competing?

Will the IRB allow New Zealand to withold visas and still stage the cup?

Or is the government, the rugby union, the provinces building stadiums, etc. confident that democracy will return to Fiji as promised by the military in 2010?

Maybe we should hold off getting exited about the 2011 World Cup untill the government clarifies their position regarding Fiji and Fiji free and unincumbent participation.
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October 30, 2007 12:04pm
cv

thanks Sam
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October 30, 2007 12:07pm
Sam Dixon

pdm – you’re right – its very strange for a poll to register opposite movements for themselves as preferred PM and the level of support for the parties they lead (most people prefer the leader of their favourite major party as PM and most people who feel strongly that someone ought to be PM vote for their party)

… so that raises the question over whether this is an outlier poll, as 1 in 20 are.
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October 30, 2007 12:17pm
kehua

When is Peter Dunne going to pay back the Election Fraud funds, perhaps it should just be deducted from his next campaign.He really is just a smug ,selfcentred waste of skin.
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October 30, 2007 12:24pm
Sam

Gerrit – what about the Sevens…
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October 30, 2007 12:27pm
kevin_mcm

Was reading a book last weekend and came acress a reference to the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Article 19.
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

Wonder if we can report the labour Party to the UN for proposing legislation which reduces our rights as defined by the UN.
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October 30, 2007 12:27pm
ManukauMum

Ruth Dyson thinks foster kids are going to read this document!: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0710/S00553.htm
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October 30, 2007 12:33pm
cv

i’d watch out, once the legislation passes the PM might backtrack the postings on this blog and outright label you as a terrorist particularly for your cohort with the UN. perhaps even treason as you’ll be undermining the government!

authoritarianism anyone?
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October 30, 2007 12:40pm
Inventory2

Dear Leader has put her foot in it again. I thought the “terrorist” prosecutions were before the Courts, and accordingly sub-judice.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4254767a11.html

The Stuff article begins:

“The activists rounded up in police anti-terror raids had been training to use napalm, Prime Minister Helen Clark confirmed yesterday.

Her comment was the first official admission of previously unconfirmed reports about napalm being used at activists’ training camps in the Ureweras.

Clark’s comment yesterday – that those arrested “at the very least” had been training with firearms and napalm – was also unusual, in that she was discussing cases currently before the courts.”

Not trying to “tip” opinion in a particular direction are you Helen?
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October 30, 2007 12:52pm
pdm

Sam Dixon

It is not often I agree with your posts but you have picked up the point I was trying to make – you would expect the preferred leader vote to follow the part vote more closely.

I am not so sure it is a `rogue’ poll though – the party percentages look reasonably consistent aprt from the Roy Morgan poll the other day.
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October 30, 2007 12:54pm
Buggerlugs

Sam – businesses are investing in training and retention – but unfortunately to get the qualifications, their staff need to go to a registered provider. Industry organisations have spent lots of time working with polytechs to ensure there are the courses their staff need so they can get qualified.

The business owners themselves have enough to do and are not asking for handouts, just enough provision at training providers so they can train and upskill staff.

As one example, my plumber here yesterday was spewing – if the local polytech loses some of its trades training provision (for no reason other than the TEC wants to cut their student numbers), he will lose more staff to other bigger areas because they have a relationship with the polytech to assist in upskilling and further training. Take the trades department away and his staff lose access to self-improvement (the courses they are taking aren’t things currently taught in block courses elsewhere).

It’s just another example of pedagogic dogma not transferring from the drawing board to the real world.
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October 30, 2007 12:55pm
PaulL

Sam Dixon: its very strange for a poll to register opposite movements for themselves as preferred PM and the level of support for the parties they lead

Is it? I think DPF’s statement was correct – pretty much no opposition leader has ever been ahead in preferred leader (including Helen before becoming PM – I seem to recall single digit popularity). If you are suggesting that it is relevant that they moved in different directions, they I reckon you are clutching at straws. The preferred prime minister poll is basically useless and might as well be ignored.
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October 30, 2007 1:14pm
cv

i concur
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October 30, 2007 1:32pm
Sam

buggerlugs – let’s be clear, are TEC requesting a drop in student numbers, or are they simply cutting back on tax-payer funding (with the same net effect)?

If it is the latter case, the Polytechs could continue with current numbers, or even increase them by charging unsubsidised fees (students could pass costs to the employers who are screaming out for these skills, the cost of which could be again passed on to the clients – ala user-pays) – thereby becoming independent by taking control away from TEC/big Govt…

However, I would be surprised if the skills taught could not be picked up quicker and more meaningfully on the job rather than through polytechs – if it is simply industry qualifications at stake, then come up with a trade-wide qualification/syllabus.

Where’s the initiative, who is it that really requires big govt??? Why lie back and give govt control, and then just go on bleating about it???
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October 30, 2007 1:38pm
krazykiwi

A genuine Helen Clark not worth much

LOL. Setting aside the actual story, the headline is Economics101 stuff… low supply of ‘genuine Helen Clark’ commodity should yield an increasing price so long as demand outstrips supply. Guess we can assume that (a) demand is non existent, or (b) based on the preferred PM poll there is voter demand but for a non-genuine Helen Clark.
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October 30, 2007 1:44pm
Sam

“tree of hope” looks like a mushroom cloud – what’s the hidden message there??
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October 30, 2007 1:56pm
roger nome

DPF:

“It is almosy unheard of for an Opposition Leader to be ahead of the Pm except in an election campaign.”

Unless you’re Kevin Rudd hey ? 🙂
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October 30, 2007 2:09pm
PaulL

Roger: I think DPF already pointed that out.
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October 30, 2007 2:20pm
TMC

Is this what Sam means by ‘new knowledge?’

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4254749a19716.html

“Waikato University postgraduate student Dave Snell… was awarded nearly $100,000 to study the bogan lifestyle”

Nice. Next time you feel like telling an “Only in America…” story, you’d better think twice.
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October 30, 2007 2:35pm
Sam

Sure is, but I’m the first to admit (which I did as I recall) that the system is flawed – there is a lot of marginal research out there. Neertheless, this research may well prove benficial to the marketing department of Ford and Holden 😉

I shudder to think how the bogan research will be used by future sociologists perhaps with the result of the Health Department targeting in the manner of the current PI Cervical smear campaign…
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October 30, 2007 3:12pm
barry

DPF – I see you feel for the never ending temptation to have a go at N.Z.First (No – I dont vote for them nor am I a party member). Why is it that those who should know better always think NZ first is a joke – they have have far more political power for their size than any other political party ever has in NZ’s history.

Winston – personable dimwitted bloke that he seems to be, is probably the smartest political operator this country has seen since probably Holyoake

[DPF: NZ First without Winston I have no problem with. In fact had a couple of their MPs at my 40th and consider them mates. I disagree that Peters is a smart operator. He would have been Prime Minister if he was smart]
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October 30, 2007 3:43pm
Brownie

Sure barry, but what a tool.
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October 30, 2007 3:46pm
slightlyrighty

Roger, what part of ALMOST don’t you understand?
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October 30, 2007 3:51pm
Stanley Climbfall

Breaking news regarding ****** at 8:45!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1jP4xS_mTY
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October 30, 2007 3:54pm
Sam Dixon

pdm – we’re going to have to wait for more polls but the trend had been national down, Labour up – even Colmar Brunton was showing National peaking in May-July and slipping

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4232/
http://colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=18
http://www.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/graph.jpg (DPF’s summary of polls with an orange – Laobur+Greens line added)

– and there was no major events to move that number of people to national, plus you have this strange result with Clark up, Key down and their parties going opposite… its wait and see time I guess.

Curia hasn’t put out a summary of polls for a while, David, but this is the pattern, eh?

[DPF: We put them out once all the polls take in month are published. Now sadly Roy Morgan take over a week to publish from the date they finish polling. On 26 Oct they published the poll to 14 Oct. So the poll to 28 Oct might not be published until 9 Nov. Also I think TV3 are going to publish shortly.

As for the trend, it may be different in first and second half of October. That’s one disadvantage of monthly averages. I have little doubt National had a period of declining support, but whether that decline is permanent is another thing]
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October 30, 2007 4:08pm
slightlyrighty

Actually, National had a peak in about sept oct of last year, dropping slightly and then peaking again in june-july of this year.

As to a trend. Who cares? There is only one opinion poll that matters, but Helen has to set a date for that one!
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October 30, 2007 4:39pm
john

I dislike the left with a passion, so is any lefties on this blogg going into any Auckland hospital soon Dont catch any of those weird,third world bugs in there , you know the sort ,the ones that kill you ,with no money for health you take your life in your hands walking through the doors , BUT we have $8000,000,000.making halfwit cullen and the BARREN witch happy, ps after a week in the bongo land fantisey hospital my wife is home, without a nasty bug i hope , J,but in pain still
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October 30, 2007 5:40pm
helmet

Wasn’t some idiot shooting his mouth off a couple of days ago around here saying something like “three more years” or something stupid like that?

Roger nome? PJ?

You know what they say, it aint over til it’s er, even begun?
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October 30, 2007 6:54pm
Peak Oil Conspiracy

Helmet:

You mean to say that Phillip John has 3 more years of study ahead of him? 🙂
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October 30, 2007 9:47pm
dad4justice

I cannot believe that Phillip John is at Uni doing study, as I thought he worked in a roading gang on the lollypop stop – go sign . It just goes to show you that you can’t always work out what a rogered nome is employed in ? They seem to pop up everywhere, academic nomes I mean . I got some in my garden . Oh well such is life .
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October 30, 2007 9:56pm

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