Roy Morgan Poll

I don’t normally blog on individual polls as I prefer to just cover them all in Curia’s monthly newsletter.  However I am intrigued by the significant 4% drop to an all time low of 31% for Labour in the latest Roy Morgan poll.

The Morgan poll reports every fortnight and as the graph above shows, it has been pretty good at tracking the parties.  In 2005/2006 the TVNZ poll showed National ahead evrytime and the TV3 poll showed Labour ahead everytime.  I like Morgan because it correctly (in my opinion) showed the lead changing back and forwards several times. So Helen Clark may find it harder to dismiss this result as she did with the TVNZ poll.  Unless she is going to dismiss all results she doesn’t like.

I think Raymond Miller may be right – attacking John Key for his wealth, is a pretty dangerous strategy.  Maybe we are also starting to see some impact from the editorials and columns about the Electoral Finance Bill.