Proposed 2008 Boundaries

The proposed 2008 boundaries (12 MB file) are out, and as I predicted there are some major changes with few electorates left untouched – only eight out of 69.

Terralink have done a cool map of NZ where you can see current and proposed boundaries, and zoom in and out.

Let’s have a look at the changes, starting at the bottom of the South Island. My commentary of whether it is good or bad for a party and MP is based on general memory of areas. At this stage I have not looked at actual polling booth results.

Invercargill – moves east and west into rural areas, good for National and Eric Roy

Clutha-Southland – now takes in Queenstown, Arrowtown and Roxburgh. Bill will be very happy!

Dunedin North – picks up Palmerston from Otago. Useful but not about to become a blue seat.

Otago – loses Queenstown etc and picks up Waimate, Fairlie and all area up to Timaru. Good for Dean. Is renamed Waitaki.

Aoraki – loses southern areas to Waitaki and now takes in huge amount of Rakaia – right up to the Rakaia river. Most population will be in Timaru and Ashburton so might not be so good for National as loses some rural areas. Goodhew has solid majority though. Renamed Rangitata.

Rakaia – this seat loses Ashburton and south of Rakaia and picks up some area from Wigram [actually not Wigram, there was a typo in the official report], and is renamed Selwyn. Still a nice blue seat.

Christchurch – some fairly minor changes to most seats to reflect Wigram losing territory to Rakaia and Waimakariri needing to lose territory into Christchurch. Waimakariri improves slightly for National.

Kaikoura does not change at all, but Nelson loses quite a bit of land to Tasman West-Coast. Makes TWC better for National and Nelson worse. National would struggle in Nelson if the local Nick Smith didn’t have such wide cross-party support locally.

Now in the North Island we start in Wellington.

Rongotai picks up area around Wellington Hospital up to the Basin which is Labour voting. WC loses that and loses Crofton Downs to OB. National will be pleased they did not lose Wadestow but it remains a red seat.

Ohariu-Belmont – loses Belmont to Rimutaka and renamed Ohariu. Dunne won’t mind.

Rimutaka – gains Belmont and loses Naenae to Hutt South. Makes Rimutaka better for National but not a blue seat by any stretch.

Mana – picks up some of Paraparaumu which is normally blue, but the actual area transferred is red.

Otaki – Darren Hughes majority of 200 or so shrinks slightly.

Palmerston North – loses Linton and all rural area to become urban electorate only. Good for Maharey but he did not need it.

Rangitikei – grabs Mt Ruapehu, Taumauranui, Ohakune off Taupo. Simon Power gets the skifields. The extra area in the north is probably Labour friendly but he has a large majority.

Whanganui – this used to stop at just past Hawera but now goes all the way around Egmont/Taranaki and includes Opunake. This will help Chester Borrows and National considerably. Probably now a safe seat.

New Plymouth – gains a but of rural area.

Taranaki – King Country – loses some nice rural areas down south, so takes in Raglan and some area south of Hamilton. Still a nice blue seat.

Over east, Wairarapa moves north to include Waippukurau up to Waipawa. Should be good for John Hayes.

Tukituki – Craig Foss loses some nice area down south but picks up some area from the north. Overall effect is slightly negative.

Napier – takes in a lot more rural area which will help Tremain, but Wairoa may cancel some of that out.

East Coast – moves past Whakatane right up to edge of Te Puke. Will help Anne Tolley and make it hard for Labour to win back.

Bay of Plenty – big movements losing area to Rotorua and East Cost, but enveloping Tauranga by taking in some land from Coromandel. Ryall remains safe.

Coromandel picks up some rural area from Piako in exchange.

Hamilton East and West both lose rural areas. Helps Labour a bit in both seats.

Taupo having lost Ruapehu has to move north and takes in Cambridge. That is probably enough for Mark Burton to lose it next election.

Rotorua also picks up some rural areas, and as a highly marginal seat for Labour may also fall to National now (these are proposed not final boundaries though).

Piako changes dramatically, enveloping Hamilton and taking territory from Port Waikato over to the west coast and up to the Bombay Hills. Becomes safer for Tisch I would say.

Port Waikato loses that territory and the rest goes into Clevedon now called Hunua. Hunua loses Clevedon and surrounding territory to the north. Will still be a blue seat.

Papakura is formed out of Manurewa and Clevedon. Could be a winnable seat for either party.

Howick comes from Pakuranga, Manukau East and Clevedon. This is the new seat and should be very safe for National.

Pakuranga – majority for WIlliamson is slashed but he has a large one to start with.

Other changes in Auckland are unlikely to change any seat from Labour to National or vice versa. Will detail later.

Up north, Northland picks up Wellsford from Rodney and Whangarei is unchanged. Not significant.

East Coast Bays loses Bayview and Witherford Heights to Helensville, which may dent the majority a bit for McCully, but not much.

Helensville having picked up this area has to lose Massey which makes it an even more blue seat for John Key.

Of course the Commission doesn’t look at the political effects of their boundary change proposals – they look at criteria such as local authority boundaries, communities of interest etc. But politically it looks quite favourable for National (unlike the last few which have favoured Labour) as they will win the new seat of Howick, and on paper maybe pick up Rotorua and Taupo.

Again the boundaries are not final and there are submissions and objections to submissions to go through.