Preferred PM ratings

In a NZ Herald interview with John Key they tried to get him to commit to a goal of equalling Helen Clark in the Preferred PM stakes by the end fo 2007.

This is a mischievious and near impossible task, and also largely irrelevant. The preferred PM rating has little if any bearing on which party will win an election. Bolger in 1990 had a single figure Preferred Pm rating yet National won by the then biggest landslide in history. In 1999 Helen Clark trailled Shipley as Preferred PM right up until the final weeks of the campaign.

A year out from an election it is very rare to have anyone but the incumbent PM as the Preferred PM. As a measure it is not without some value in measuring trends, but the party vote question is a magnitude more important than Preferred PM.