Michael Fox at Stuff reports:

At least 10,000 fewer people are now on a benefit compared with last year, new quarterly figures show.

The figures were released as the third and largest wave of welfare reforms were rolled out by the Government yesterday, although the reduction is being credited to the previous changes.

Yep that drop is pre the major reforms.

“That’s a reduction of more than 10,000 on welfare over the past 12 months and I am particularly pleased that 5600 of them are sole parents,” she said.

If they have gone from welfare into work, that will benefit their family not just financially.

Bob Jones writes on what the likely comments would be to his Herald column if he simply wrote “The cat sat on the mat::

Struggling Worker, Henderson: “Yeah right, Mr Jones. Fine for the 1 per cent who can afford cats and mats but what about the rest of us?”

Doto, 54: “As always, more Jones sneering from on high, which is why I never read his column as every week it’s the same garbage from start to finish.”

Raupo, Morrinsville: “I also never read Mr Jones, but finally he’s got something right. Our cat sits on a mat.”

Shaun, Turangi Prison Farm: “It’s an attack on Catholics – clear as day.”

Anne, Whakatane: “Bob’s wrong. Our cat only lies on a sofa.”

JD, Wanganui: “Hang on, Anne. What colour’s your cat?”

Anne, Whakatane: “It’s ginger, JD.”

JD, Wanganui: “Well there you go, Anne. It’s obviously Irish and just being obstreperous. Normal cats sit on mats, as Bob said.”

Struggling Worker, Henderson: “What none of you realise is that lots of us are battling to make ends meet and can’t afford cats and mats. It’s simply more of Jones’ weekly arrogance, ridiculing the poor, which is why I never read his rubbish.”

Margaret, Tauranga: “Lots of kittens are available free.”

Struggling Worker, Henderson: “Yeah right, Margaret. But we’re not all parasitically raking in rents from high-rise buildings and can afford to feed cats. And for that matter, who’s giving away mats?”

As one can expect, some of the commenters did not like being mocked and responded:

So, Bob Jones’ response to the avalanche of critiicism last week over his ill-advised ‘poor people spend too much money on fancy $30 lunches’ diatribe is to say to everyone that he doesn’t care what we think ’cause he is right and we are all stupid idiots.  

I’m reading you online Bob Jones. And you are right. Who gives a toss what you think.

Can you please get this useless old geezer’s rant off www.nzherald.co.nz? I could not give a toss to actually read most of the rubbish herein, but it’s still polluting the internet.

I suspect Sir Bob is enjoying the responses.

Stuff reports:

There is little in today’s inflation numbers to suggest the Reserve Bank will be forced to change the official cash rate (OCR) earlier than forecast.

Annual inflation has dropped to just 0.7 per cent, the lowest level since 1999, with higher power and housing costs offset by lower petrol and car prices in the June quarter.

The OCR is at 2.5 per cent, a historic low and economists are not expecting to see any rise until early to mid 2014. The central bank releases its next interest rate review on Thursday next week.

Consumer price inflation has been one per cent or below for a year now, and low inflation has allowed the OCR to remain at 2.5 per cent for some time, TD Securities head of Asia Pacific research Annette Beacher said.

Inflation low, interest rates low, economy growing and jobs being created. Not too bad.

The average inflation rate since December 2008 has been 2.2%.  If you exclude the GST increase which had compensating tax cuts then it would be 1.7%.

In the previous 18 quarters, it was 3.3%. That means prices increased around 10% every three years.

This clipping is from The Listener.

Jane Clifton makes the valuable point that Cunliffe could win the party-wide vote but can’t get a majority in caucus to trigger it. Either of Robertson or Little could probably gain a majority in caucus to trigger a leadership ballot – but probably can’t win the party-wide vote. Hence you have the irony of the new rules put in place by the activists specifically to challenge Shearer, are in fact keeping him in the job.

The Economist states:

A new study by John Norregaard of the International Monetary Fund suggests that the average rich country, including all levels of government, raises under 5% of total tax revenue from annual levies on land or the buildings on it. The norm in middle-income emerging economies is lower still, at around 2% of all tax revenue (see right-hand chart). Including property-transaction taxes like stamp duty raises the total a bit but not by much. …

But, overall, property taxation plays a relatively small role.

That’s a pity. Taxing land and property is one of the most efficient and least distorting ways for governments to raise money. A pure land tax, one without regard to how land is used or what is built on it, is the best sort. Since the amount of land is fixed, taxing it cannot distort supply in the way that taxing work or saving might discourage effort or thrift. Instead a land tax encourages efficient land use.

That’s why I support a land tax – it is the least distorting tax. Taxes on income discourage work. Taxes on capital discourage investment. Taxes on goods and services discourages consumption. But what does a tax on land do?

Property developers, for instance, would be less inclined to hoard undeveloped land if they had to pay an annual levy on it. Property taxes that include the value of buildings on land are less efficient, since they are, in effect, a tax on the investment in that property. Even so, they are less likely to affect people’s behaviour than income or employment taxes. A study by the OECD suggests that taxes on immovable property are the most growth-friendly of all major taxes. That is even truer of urbanising emerging economies with large informal sectors.

I only support a land tax, if other taxes were reduced so that the overall level of taxation doesn’t increase. As The Economist states, a land tax is one of the growth-friendly forms of tax – far more than income taxes.

Nick Smith just released visitor numbers for the nine Great NZ walks. In order they are:

1. Abel Tasman 28,739
2. Routeburn Track 12,917
3. Kepler Track 10,358
4. Milford Track 7,275
5. Whanganui Journey 6,260
6. Heaphy Track 6,118
7. Lake Waikaremoana 5,936
8. Tongariro Northern Circuit 5,651
9. Rakiura Track 3,619

Overall usage is up 9.5% to 86,873.

I’m doing the Heaphy, Tongariro and Milford walks this summer. Very much looking forward to them.

Stuff reports:

The Reserve Bank is expected to forge ahead with controversial restrictions on home loans within the week – and there will be no exceptions for first home-buyers.

A banking source said banks were told on Friday to prepare for restrictions which will impose a 12 per cent ”speed limit” on their total new lending going on low equity mortgages.

That will effectively halve the amount of high loan-to-value (LVR) lending that the banks are currently doing, making it much harder to get a mortgage with a deposit of less than 20 per cent.

The source said the Reserve Bank’s restrictions were much more extreme than had been anticipated.

”My understanding is that all the efforts of Government to slow them down on the decision have not been successful,” they said.

Prime Minister John Key had previously suggested the Government would work with the central bank to agree on some sort of ”carve-out” for first-home buyers.

The source said tensions between the two parties had grown as Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler refused to back down.

The Reserve Bank has consistently said that creating exceptions for first-home buyers, small business owners or others, would dilute the strength of the tool.

As an independent organisation, the Reserve Bank’s sole focus is maintaining financial stability in the banking system.

This policy, like most, will create winners and losers.

It should reduce pressure on house prices, as demand will drop following less credit being available. This will benefit those wanting to buy a home that can get credit.

The losers will be those who will be unable to get a mortgage as they don’t have enough of a deposit, and they will have to remain renting for longer. Also current owners could be seen to be losers as their houses won’t appreciate so much.

LVR limits have been widely criticised by the banking and brokerage industries, who have a vested interest in unfettered lending, as well as independent groups like Consumer NZ.

Even the Reserve Bank has admitted that people are likely to sneak around the rules by borrowing a deposit from family, or lower-tier lenders.

Once the limits are imposed, banks will cherry-pick borrowers with the best credit ratings, saving histories and account conduct.

If the reserve Bank does go ahead, it will be interesting to see how effective the policy is.

The Herald reports:

Aucklanders have two options to address the city’s transport funding gap: road tolls, or higher rates and fuel taxes.

That’s the conclusion of a high-level report, released this afternoon, which gives Auckland Council and the Government a clear timetable for when new revenue sources will be needed to raise an extra $400 million for each of 30 years – $12 billion in total.

The money will be for projects such as the City Rail Link and new roads, including another Waitemata Harbour crossing.

But Transport Minister Gerry Brownlee immediately ruled out two options.

“We say no to regional fuel tax and no to tolls on existing roads,” he told 3 News.

The report, by the Consensus Building Group (CBG), a 17-member think-tank appointed by Mayor Len Brown, concluded that unless Aucklanders were prepared to accept significantly higher rates increases and heavier congestion, introducing some form of congestion charge by 2021 would be required.

I think a congestion charge is the best form of funding, as it is basically user pays. The challenge is whether it can be done in an efficient way.

The Herald reports:

New Zealand First celebrates its 20th anniversary this month but a Hawke’s Bay politician and former MP of the party believes it’ll self-destruct when its leader Winston Peters decides to leave.

That is self-evident. Peters promised that they would elect a Deputy Leader by March 2012. It is not July 2013 and his insecurities about any possible sucessors means they don’t even have a deputy leader.

Out-going Hawke’s Bay regional councillor Neil Kirton was elected to Parliament in 1996 as a New Zealand First list MP and was appointed associate Minister of Health when the party formed a coalition with the National government.

He was one of three former New Zealand First MPs invited to speak on TV3’s Sunday morning political programme, The Nation, looking back on the past two decades of the party and its possible future.

After the interview, Mr Kirton told Hawke’s Bay Today he stood by his comments which suggested the party had not achieved any “major triumph in political history” which had made a difference to the lives of people today.

“Jim Anderton can lay claim to KiwiBank which has become a huge New Zealand institution. The KiwiSaver scheme by Michael Cullen has made a big difference to people in our daily lives and there is also Sir Douglas Graham’s Treaty Settlements.

“So what I am talking about is in the past two decades, very few policies supporting those kinds of initiatives have come out of New Zealand First.”

As the party is mainly a vehicle for Winston to enjoy the baubles of office, it is no surprise that they have so few achievements for 20 years in Parliament.

I so have to see this film!

The Lumiere Reader interviews Alex Gibney:

“WE STEAL SECRETS is as brilliant as you’d expect,” James Robinson wrote for The Lumière Reader after seeing Alex Gibney’s WikiLeaks documentary at its Sundance premiere earlier this year. “It’s a hypnotic, absurd human drama and Gibney turns it over expertly and from all sides. No one has put this story together in such a complete fashion.” Via Skype from his New York office on Friday, the enduring documentarian talked passionately with Alexander Bisley about Julian Assange, Bradley Manning, and inspiration Martin Scorsese. …

ALEXANDER BISLEY: Here’s the rub. Two Swedish women including Anna, a WikiLeaks supporter you interview in We Steal Secrets, have made credible allegations of significant sexual crime against Julian Assange. How do his supporters maintain he should be above the law?

ALEX GIBNEY: I don’t know how they make that claim. I don’t know how he makes that claim either. In my view this is a big problem. I don’t think he should be above the law, or above criticism. Now he maintains that if he goes back to Sweden he’ll be extradited to the United States, and that’s why he’s not going. But there’s no evidence of that. In fact there’s evidence of just the opposite, that it’s harder to extradite him from Sweden than it is from the United Kingdom. 

I think that is a key point. The UK has an extradition treaty with the US. Assange has not been charged by the US Government. What he faces in Sweden is not extradition, but arrest and a trial for rape.

Now I happen to think the rape allegations are certainly not beyond reasonable doubt. But that is not the point. The accusers deserve a day in court, and Assange is not above the law.

AB: This seems to me the definition of power without accountability, which is supposedly Assange’s big thing.

AG: I agree with you. I think he’s all about holding others to account, holding the powerful to account. And he, in relation to these two Swedish women, has power. He has a huge pulpit and a large number of supporters, and he has allowed them to vilify these women without attempting in any way, shape, or form, to stop that. So yes, he’s not willing to be held to account in any way, shape or form, and that’s one of the issues I have with Assange and WikiLeaks.

AB: At first you too thought the Swedish story was a CIA honey trap? But having researched it thoroughly, you don’t believe that to be the case?

AG: I can find no evidence that it was a CIA honey trap, absolutely no evidence. So, people can say what they want, or imagine whatever they like, but until they produce evidence, as far as I’m concerned it’s a matter between one man and two women.

AB: You spent ages, including one six hour in-person session, talking to Lord Transparency about doing an interview, he suggested money, demanded control over the article, that you spread the gospel according to Assange, and then most extraordinarily, he then asked you to spy on your documentary’s other subjects in return for an interview?

AG: Correct. It was the last part that really staggered me. Julian likes intrigue, and he likes the idea of espionage. Julian likes to involve himself in all sorts of intrigue as if he’s in some kind of spy thriller, and suddenly he’s asking me for “intel”—he keeps calling it “intel”. He reprimanded Daniel Domscheit-Berg with language that was taken straight out of The Espionage Act of 1917. It’s this cloak and dagger stuff where Assange loses credibility, let’s put it that way.

He seems a control freak.

An interesting intreview.

The Herald reports:

Nicola Ngarewa is all about the solution rather than the problem.

The 39-year-old is the principal at Tamatea College, Hawkes Bay, where she has been for a little more than two years.

What is her attitude to education and achievement?

“I don’t like deciles, at all. It labels kids and it’s not fair on them.

“For me, there are no excuses. No matter where you come from, what language you speak or what your socio-economic status is, achieving is within your reach.”

It is this philosophy and strong mindset that has seen Ms Ngarewa’s popularity soar within the school community. The school’s academic results have also improved.

Participation in sports has sky-rocketed at the school, where there are about 300 students – 45 per cent Maori and the rest a mix of Asian, Iraqi, European and Pacific Island.

That’s a very diverse school. And for those wondering, it is decile 3.

NCEA achievement rates have doubled in the past two years; with 91 per cent of achievement at Level 1, 94 per cent in Level 2 and 95 per cent at Level 3.

“Now the kids are saying: ‘Oh, we’ve got to make 100 per cent this year’. That’s exactly the kind of attitude you want to see and hear in the playground.”

That’s an incredible turn-around and achievement. Can we clone her?

The Liberals have done an attack ad on Kevin Rudd. This one is not quoting what his colleagues said about him, instead it is pointing out the policies he implemented last time have failed.

If the winner of the Tour de France is the competitor with the best chemist, then would it be fair to say the team that wins the Louis Vuitton Cup is probably the team with the best lawyer?

News.com.au reports:

The parliamentary secretary for housing and homelessness, Senator Doug Cameron, rubbished “inconclusive research” by the Productivity Commission linking poor kids’ genes to their failure at school.

“I don’t agree that if you’re born rich you’re born more intelligent,” he told News Limited.

“You’ve only got to look at some rich people to understand that’s not the case.”

The Productivity Commission cited genetic “inherited abilities” as one of the reasons rich kids outperform poor children at school, in a provocative report published yesterday.

The federal government’s main policy advisory agency cited “parents’ cognitive abilities and inherited genes” at the top of a list of reasons why kids from poor families lag behind those from wealthy homes.

At an individual level, of course not all rich people are intelligent and vice-versa. We all know many contra examples of this.

But are there some linkages overall, on average?

Let’s be clear about the differences between correlation and causation.

Is intelligence affected by both genetics and environment? Yes.

If all other things are equal, will the children of intelligent parents tend to be more intelligent than the the children of less intelligent parents? Yes – there is some genetic basis to intelligence.

Do those with higher intelligence tend to, on average, be in higher paid jobs and hence earn more money? Yes, but again only on average – not all.

So will those born to wealthier parents tend to on average be more intelligent? Yes, not due to their wealth but the correlation between wealth and intelligence and the fact that intelligence of parents does have some causative impact on children’s intelligence.

But again this is an average, not a prediction for all or even most people. Environment and parenting skills have a huge impact also on a child’s intelligence.

Stuff reports:

Wide-ranging benefit reforms have come into force today, with beneficiary advocates voicing a mix of cautious optimism and criticism of the changes.

From today there are fewer benefit categories, as well as compulsory drug testing for jobseekers, sanctions for fugitive beneficiaries and stricter healthcare obligations for parents of young children.

A new way of dealing with hardcore beneficiaries will also be introduced, with the Government trumpeting the success of a pilot trialled in 24 Work and Income offices since October.

Work and Income says the results are “some of the best from any case management trial” in recent years, with 6000 of the 10,000 people in the pilot no longer on a benefit. More than half of those people found work, the rest opted out or cancelled benefits for reasons such as no longer meeting eligibility requirements.

Imagine if we can replicate that, on a larger scale.

The ministry also has a pilot planned in the next two months to get 2000 sickness beneficiaries with mental and physical disabilities into work, she said.

Few disabilities prevent someone from all work. They may prevent certain types of work, or full-time work.

Chester Borrows announced:

The Law Commission will review the rules governing the media’s reporting of suicide, Courts Minister Chester Borrows said today.

The Coroners Act 2006 currently restricts the information that can be made public about a self-inflicted death without the authorisation of the coroner.  Concern that some aspects of the restrictions are unclear was raised during the recent review of the Coroners Act.

The law says you can not publish the particulars of any suicide without the permission of the Coroner. But it is unclear if just publishing the fact a death was a suicide is a particular. The media generally hold that it is not, while health groups say it is.  I’ve certainly on a couple of occasions have reported a suicide was a suicide when it was widely known that it was, and there was no doubt.

The Law Commission is a good body to review the law, and I look forward to engaging on this issue. It is sensible that the law should be clear. For my 2c I think you should be able to call a suicide a suicide when there is no doubt about it – but I agree details of the suicide should generally not be revealed.

As David has previously mentioned, the 2013 Youth Parliament is to be held this Tuesday and Wednesday. I was lucky enough to be selected by the Hon. Michael Woodhouse MP to be his representative at the event this week. I am also lucky to have been given the opportunity to post here on Kiwiblog about the event.

On Tuesday, following a  formal welcome at Parliament, Youth MPs will go to their respective Select Committees to discuss the following topics:

• Social Services- How can public expectations for social services be balanced against likely rising costs for these services
• Health-Are young people taking enough responsibility for reducing and preventing substance abuse or should this be government’s role?
• Transport and Industrial Relations- What are the barriers to young people entering employment across New Zealand workplaces and how can these be addressed?
• Local Government and Environment- Should government restrict or permit private businesses profiting from conservation activities?
• Education and Science- Compulsory vs. elective subjects in secondary schools – should subjects like science be compulsory?
• Commerce- Purchasing online: supporting modern consumerism
• Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade- Where should New Zealand’s international obligations lie – Pacific or wider afield
• Justice- White collar vs blue collar offending: do current sentences reflect the economic and social impacts of these crimes?
• Maori Affairs-  As more iwi move towards a post-settlement environment, how do rangatahi see the role of iwi in supporting the development of the next generation?
• Primary Production-  Can New Zealand afford to be free range?

I am pleased to be in the Commerce Select Committee where we will be discussing a topic that is currently getting a lot of media attention. All the topics, however, are substantive and should lead to debate.

The main events of Wednesday are held in the Debating Chamber. Question Time will be held at 10.30 am and Youth MPs will have the opportunity to ask questions of Ministers.

Following Question Time, the Legislative Debate will be held (12.45pm). The Mock Bill, which would:

• reduce the voting age from 18 years to 17 years
• include electronic voting to the methods of voting
• make voting compulsory for all eligible voters
• extend the Term of Parliament from three years to four.

will be debated and then voted upon.

Following this, a General Debate on any topic of the Youth MP’s choosing will be held (3.20pm).

The day will conclude with Notices of Motion, put forward by Youth MPs (5.00pm).

If anyone wants to give feedback or ideas to the Youth MPs they can do so in the comments below, or by using the hashtag, #nzyouthparliament on Twitter or Facebook. Those in Wellington on Wednesday are invited to attend the public gallery, by following the normal process.

I will also be posting a summary of events at Youth Parliament later in the week.

One of the five pools at the Bellagio. You can reserve a chair for the day, and of course poolside service. So spent most of last two days here as too hot during the day to do anything else. Around 38 degrees.

This is at the New York New York casino. All the shops are in mall style. Made money on both Blackjack Split (up 100%) and Roulette (up 25%).

Entree at Bellagio. Yum. Very reasonably priced also.

The Bellagio Fountains from our room.

The main swimming pool.

The Bellagio Conservatory

A chocolate fountain at Bellagio.

Chris Trotter comments on Stephen Franks’ blog:

I once concluded an editorial in the NZ Political Review with the following observation:

“There is a paradox here. Conservative political culture, whose raison d’etre is the preservation of social inequality and economic exploitation (not to mention the institutional violence these things create and upon which ruling class power rests) tends to produce individuals of considerable personal charm and genuine liberality. While radical culture, which sets its face against the violence and injustice of entrenched privilege, all too often produces individuals who are aggressive, intolerant and utterly indifferent to the suffering which their relentless quest for justice causes.

“In short, the Right treats humanity like cattle and individual human-beings like princes, while the Left loves humanity with a passion but treats individuals like shit.”

Somewhere there must be an algorithm that delivers the best of both worlds.

I’m still looking.

I think there is more than an element of truth to this. It should go without saying that the above is a generalisation and of course not true for many many people. But I have observed that while the left does have much greater passion for humanity and the like, on an individual level the same passion and concern does not always come through.

The HoS reports:

The Act Party wants National supporters to save it from oblivion at next year’s election, telling them it needs not just one, but two Parliamentary seats.

I think they would be better to target the party vote. At 1.25 they get a second MP.

Now, former Act president Chris Simmons is eying the blue-ribbon electorate of Pakuranga, in East Auckland – but he has a battle on his hands.

National’s Maurice Williamson, the local MP since 1987 and now a minister outside cabinet, had considered standing down to contest the Auckland mayoral election.

But yesterday, he said he was not going anywhere and would not stand aside for anyone.

“I welcome any challengers,” he said. “Rumours that I won’t be standing are completely baseless.”

Entrepreneur Simmons told the Herald on Sunday he hoped to stand again in Pakuranga, despite coming sixth with only 816 votes in 2011. Simmons denied rumours of backroom talks with National to run a soft campaign, allowing Act to take the seat.

News to me. I expect National to retain Pakuranga easily.

Banks agreed National’s backing in Pakuranga would help both parties, but would not say if he was seeking another Epsom-style arrangement.

“I wouldn’t even enter into a conversation about that because I have no knowledge of such things and there’s no anticipation that would be the case.

So ACT isn’t asking and National isn’t offering. A bit of a non-story.