Before I cover the first 5 points, I will cover an important point by way of an introduction as it overlays all these reasons and that is that a big reason why Donald Trump won and won convincingly is because of a series of unique skills that Trump brings to the table. For his opponents they are character flaws but to his supporters they are features not bugs:

* His phenomenal resilience in the face of a wall of overwhelming hostility and opposition from the his opponents, media, governing elites (some from his own party), the unrelenting lawfare that could have led to prison time and the attempts to bankrupt his businesses due to the corrupt actions of Federal intelligence agencies and New York state and city law enforcement and finally the near successful attempted assassination. Any other candidate would’ve given up.

* His work ethic. Trump thrives on an average of only 4 hours sleep a night and has energy that belies his age. Trump held 80 rallies since the US Labor Day on 1 September that signals the business end of any US Presidential election campaign. In the last week he was averaging 3 rallies a day and in the final three days, he managed 4 full campaign rallies, often ending in the small hours of the morning and beginning at 10am the next day.

* His personal wealth not only helped top up his campaign during fund-raising lulls but he was able to pay millions to a large team of lawyers to defend himself in the various court cases he was involved with. It also meant he was never beholden to the elite Republican consultant class to whom GOP Presidential candidates invariably must turn to fund their campaigns.

* His phenomenal political instincts combine with a great sense of humour. Trump is a genuinely funny guy, but he also responds to events on the fly with the aplomb of the most seasoned pol. To rise from the floor of the stage at Butler, PA after being protected by Secret Service agents after the attempted assassination and fist pump Fight Fight Fight beneath a giant US flag created not just one of the most iconic political photographs of all time but sent a signal of Trump’s power and courage. That single act earned Trump probably a million new votes. His trolling of Kamala Harris’ false claim of working at McDonalds by donning an apron and serving burgers and fries to customers of America’s most iconic fast-food giant was epic…. and highly effective, as was his garbage truck appearance and hi-vis jacket wearing at a rally mere hours after Biden’s “garbage supporters” throw way comment.

* Much is made of Trump’s aggression, his inartful speaking style and partisan, personal barbs at his opponents. To millions of Americans, sick of being lectured to and abused by governing elites, Trump abrasiveness and forceful personality is seen as essential to getting the job of draining the swamp done. Media and governing elites all over the globe hate Trump for this trait but tens of millions of voters see him as the last hope to actually get things done, break some eggs, crack heads in Washington DC and to stand up to the Putin’s, Xi’s Khamenei’s and Jung Ill’s of this world.

1. Harris and Waltz were poor candidates

Harris replaced Biden at a crucial point of the campaign after Biden’s disastrous summer debate performance against Trump where his clear cognitive decline could no longer be hidden by a biased and incurious MSM. Biden’s polling was weakening before the debate and cratered after the debate pushing the Democrat elites to find a replacement. Rather than turning to its bench of seasoned, experienced, media-savvy operatives like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Witmer or even a media super star like Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson, the woke DEI obsessed Democrat elites felt the optics of skipping over the sitting Vice President Harris as a woman of colour would be too devastating to the liberal base of the party and so they opted for Kamala in the hopes that their superior war chest and wall to wall favourable media coverage would cover for her manifest deficiencies. The gamble didn’t pay off because her failings couldn’t be hidden. They include:

* She ran an awful campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2019/2020 with faltering debate performances and a grab bag of far left policy positions that became frequent fodder for Trump campaign ads (anti fracking – a killer in PA, defund the police – she actually raised money for people arrested for arson during the hugely destructive Minneapolis Floyd riots, no restrictions on illegal immigration and defanging border enforcement, state funded trans gender surgery for prison inmates AND illegals, etc. etc.)

* She came across as scripted and inauthentic with her every public word crafted by her handlers. When teleprompter scripts stalled, she was unable to go off script and would seemingly glitch and repeat previous lines over and over unlike Trump who can riff off the cuff for hours. After Trumps’ 3 hour long spontaneous unscripted appearance on No. 1 podcaster Joe Rogan’s show, Harris was invited on as well but attempted to limit the time and the questions and Rogan declined. She would never have been as remotely authentic and real was Trump was in that interview. Teleprompters were used in seemingly ‘spontaneous’ town halls, questions and questioners were screened and known in advance and every voter interaction was choreographed often poorly.

* Her few interviews, almost exclusively on Democrat friendly venues like CNN and The View, went poorly. She could not answer simple expected questions except with rambling incomprehensible word salads. Her first interview as a candidate was awkward with poor camera positioning and with her running mate present like a minder. Her Fox interview with Brett Baier was so disastrous that her team frantically cut it off 30 minutes into an expected 50 minute sit down and her 60 Minutes interview was so bad that CBS actually edited her rambling answer about the Gaza war and spliced in a simple better answer in a brazen act of political interference. Trump on the other hand faced multiple lengthy hostile interviews (National Association of Black Journalists and Blomberg) that he handled with ease.

* She talked confidently of what she would do as President to solve the big problems like the cost-of-living crisis and the border crisis and when confronted as to why she hadn’t done anything about these pressing voter concerns over the almost 4 prior years as VP, she descended into yet more word salad circular answers.

* Her rallies were the definition of astroturf. Unlike Trump’s huge rallies that were packed to the gunnels with ordinary unscreened voters, Kamala’s rallies were often by invitation and held in locations small enough to create an illusion of a large full crowd. Many had paid attendees who, based on the analysis of cell phone pings, criss crossed the country as professional rally attendees attending 3, 4 even 5 rallies across state lines and that were bussed in by the thousand.

* The Harris campaign tried to run on joy, “brat summer”, happy vibes and a New Way Forward when she was an integral part of the poorly run Biden Harris Administration. Her campaign tried to create distance between her and Biden except that she was joined at the hip on all his policy failures (e.g. the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan) and when asked twice if she’d do anything different from Biden, she essentially said no thus undercutting her own campaign strategy.

* Vice Presidential picks are usually not too impactful with the top of the ticket hoping to do no harm with the pick. In this election, Trump’s selection of JD Vance enhanced his candidacy and Harris’ choice of Tim Waltz diminished hers. Despite a relentlessly negative media campaign against him, Vance proved to not only have a compelling back story of the hillbilly working class boy made good from an addicted solo mum home (turned into a successful book and Netflix movie) but he was a powerful and articulate advocate for the Trump agenda going into the lions den of hostile media interviews and knocking it out of the park over and over again. Conversely Waltz was poorly vetted and was confronted by friendly mainstream media about untruths about his miliary record and rank, his purported movements at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre in China in 1989, his over 30 visits to China and his very liberal track record as Governor of Minnesota. Waltz proved to be almost as bad in interviews as Harris being stumped a few times and the mismatch between him and Vance became painfully obvious during the single VP debate that was one of the most one-sided debate victories in favour of Vance of this type of contest in a generation.

2. “It’s the economy stupid.”

In the 1992 election when Bill Clinton beat popular Ronald Reagan’s Vice President George HW Bush (who had won easily 1988), the main reason was the recession of 1991/92 and its economic impact. Clinton’s famous aggressive Louisiana hard ball advisor James Carville kept Clinton and his campaign focused like a laser on the economy to the point where everywhere in their campaign offices was the sign “it’s the economy stupid” to avoid distraction on other issues. The massive printing of money that began with Covid and accelerated with all the Green New Deal spending boondoggles had the predictable effect of driving up inflation. The Biden Administration’s war on traditional energy (cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline, cancelling new oil and gas leases on Federal land and the EV mandates) all had the effect of scaling back the massive domestic energy boom under Trump’s first term causing a rise in energy prices, a process accelerated by the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty in the Middle East. This had the effect of driving up grocery prices in leaps not seen since the high inflation of the ‘70’s and a substantial increase in prices of petrol at the pump. Whilst the high inflation rate did come down somewhat as did prices at the pump, for the latter part of the Biden Harris Presidency, increasing numbers of Americans were struggling to make ends meet and suffered a decline in their standard of living.  When combined with a doubling of mortgage interest rates due to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb high inflation (which in turn increased domestic rents), job uncertainty and massive house price inflation fueled by the Covid supply chain shortages and untrammeled immigration, the American dream of home ownership for the rising generation became a more distant and unreachable goal. For the first time since the formation of the Republic in the 18^th century, Gen Z became the first generation of young American adults to face a country less prosperous and with fewer economic opportunities than the previous generation.

American voters across almost all age, gender and race demographics were demonstrably and intuitively worse off under Biden than they were under Trump and in this election, for the first time since Andrew Jackson ran for a second term in 1836, we had a race between an incumbent (Harris) and a challenger who had recently been President in the previous term and the economic juxtaposition proved to be electorally damaging for Harris.

3 . The weeping sore of the open border = rising crime

This was a hot button issue that sailed somewhat under the radar for the first two years of Biden Harris until the cumulative numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the border reached a critical mass in cities and towns across America. For many years, the problems of illegal immigration were largely confined to the border states of CA, AZ, NM and TX. Trump worked hard to seal the border with a raft of policies: ending catch and release, the ‘stay in Mexico’ policy for asylum seekers, no benefits for migrants and building sections of a border wall. The net effect was, by the end of his Presidency in 2020, that the US had the lowest number of illegal border incursions in a generation.

Biden ended all that on almost Day 1 of his Presidency reversing a raft of effective Trump Executive Orders essentially throwing open the border. Asylum seekers could enter and then be given a court date years hence and then be released with no repercussions for failing to appear. Border Patrol and ICE were re-instructed to release captured illegals rather than deport them and when so-called asylum seekers arrived, they received a cell phone, an EBT card (Federal Government pre-loaded debit card for buying food) and in the liberal so-called sanctuary states and cities, free accommodation in hotels, motels and hostels. Conservative states like Texas and Florida began an aggressive bussing programme where State agencies and law enforcement would bus illegals captured to the large liberal cities of the northeast and mid-west due to being already overloaded.

The impact of this steady stream of illegals, many being young men of military age, into many more northern cities led to pressure on resources usually only seen in border states, a very visible presence on streets and in places like parks and swimming pools but most significantly, because of zero vetting of unsuitable migrants, a surge in violent crime that saw a string of high profile rapes and murders of innocent usually women at the hands of criminal illegals who had been previously convicted of serious crimes in their home countries. In late September, the Assistant Director of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) sent a letter to the relevant House of Representatives Oversight Committee representative detailing that 11,000 murderers and 15,000 rapists had been allowed illegal entry into the country. Trump masterfully personalised the illegal migrant crisis by highlighting one of the more bizarre cultural side effects of untrammeled immigration by pointing to the killing of domestic pets like cats and dogs in the small Ohio town of Springfield where some 22,000 Haitians had been allowed in on flimsily disguised refugee status. Trump was fact checked by the ABC debate hosts and the MSM for sensationalising the situation but the reports were true despite the Democrat mayor of the town claiming otherwise plus it swung the spotlight onto the way small rural communities across the country were being ravaged economically and socially by the uncontrolled influx of essentially illegal migrants from 3^rd world countries with a history of violent crime and disregard for property and culture. The straw that broke the camel’s backs was the reports of violent Venezuelan gangs taking over whole apartment complexes in middle class suburbs like Aurora in Denver Colorado and other cities like LA and Seattle and of organised Chilean gangs of professional thieves robbing wealthy homes in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Trump and Vance hammered these huge negative impacts of illegal immigration relentlessly at every opportunity and the promise of a mass deportation of illegals beginning with the high-profile criminals wreaking havoc across cities and towns across America. At first the Democrats tried to gaslight the electorate that there was no border crisis, then they tried a bait and switch with RINO Republicans on a border bill that was amnesty lite and offered only a minuscule improvement in numbers of illegals and then blame Trump and the GOP for not properly securing the border until Harris, finally sensing the electoral damage the open border was causing her party, became all bullish and strong on the border vowing to do as the new President what she never did as Biden’s VP despite being appointed by him as the Border Czar. It was too little too late and Trump’s extreme sounding solution to the problems caused by illegal migrants began to resonate with more and more voters.

4. Trump is winning the cultural war

The Democrat Party and liberal elites are obsessed with abortion and trans gender rights. Many liberal and never-Trump commentators (such as the guest post on November 5 by yokeovermarmite) made much about how pro-choice Democrat candidates in the 2022 mid-terms and subsequent special elections (like our by-elections) overperformed versus the polls and this signaled somehow that with most polls showing a close 2024 race that abortion post the overturning of Roe v Wade was the secret sleeper issue that would propel Kamala to victory. The problem was the left, as they often do, over egged the abortion pudding with a drumbeat of inflammatory rhetoric of women dying due to restrictive abortion laws since the overturn of Roe v Wade. The trouble was the picture child case of Amber Thurman’s death in Georgia was due to medical complications from an abortion pill she ordered online and poor subsequent medical treatment rather than being denied an abortion by Georgia’s more restrictive abortion laws. This was a medical malpractice issue and not an abortion rights issue. But more stupidly, Harris (and many Democrats and the MSM) went all in on claiming Trump was going to enact a nationwide federal abortion ban and they relentlessly scare mongered off that. Trump deftly defused the abortion issue’s potency during the campaign by doing three things: (i) he disavowed any claim to be at all supportive of any Federal abortion ban saying he’d veto one if passed by Congress, (ii) he rightly placed the Dobbs v Jackson decision (overturing Roe v Wade) in its proper legal context as merely returning the abortion issue to the States where constitutionally it belongs and, (iii) rather than being afraid to touch this third rail of US politics, Trump and Vance sometimes went on offence on the issue of late and post birth abortions (both allowed in a handful of uber liberal states) and rightly surmised that majority US public opinion was opposed to, and deeply concerned about, these types of abortions. Pro-choice candidates and media would then straight up lie repeatedly about all three of these points: they banged on endlessly about Trumps’ planned abortion ban, they mischaracterized the overturning of Roe v Wade, and they denied that pregnancies were terminated weeks prior to birth or even after birth. Trump drained the venom out of the abortion stinger such that it was not the decisive factor in 2024 that it was in 2022.

The left’s obsession with trans rights was personified by Harris when she bragged that when she was Attorney General of California, she arranged for the State to pay for trans gender surgeries for inmates. As more and more biological men who benefited from male puberty chose to transition and compete in women’s sports and to invade women only spaces like bathrooms, changing rooms and refuges, gradually this became the pointy end of the cultural war between traditional views on sexuality and the progressive left who see gender as a fluid continuum with an ever increasingly long acronym to cover all of the new sexual gradations on this everchanging spectrum. Often Democrats and their sympathizers became advocates for trans gender hormone treatment and even surgery for minors and in some states, the whole binary male/female structure of society was upended with Parent A and Parent B on birth certificates, male menstrual products, mothers became a birthing person and breast feeding becoming chest feeding. A stark divide opened up between Harris and Waltz (who installed tampons in boys’ toilets in all public schools across Minnesota hence his Trump nick name of Tampon Tim) and Trump/Vance who pledged to end men in women’s sport. The New York Times just reported that the most potent and effective of all the political ads that the Trump campaign ran was the one where Harris bragged about trans gender surgery for prisoners and illegals with the tag line Harris: They/Them – Trump: You! Consumers had voted with their pocketbooks and destroyed the brand image of Bud Light after Anheuser Busch allowed prominent trans woman influencer Dylan Mulvaney to front an ad campaign. The boycott of Bud Light, once the largest single beer brand in the US, at one stage wiped billions off the asset value of Anheuser Busch. The 2024 election gave voters the opportunity to use their silent majority electoral muscle to end what many see as nonsense and stop the imposition of extreme liberal values being forced on middle America by an out of touch elite. A vote for Trump was seen as a vote for a return to sanity and normalcy in the cultural wars.

5. The impact of a free Twitter

In the run up to the 2020 election and in its aftermath, the Democrats and governing elites were able to augment their overwhelming sympathetic support of the mainstream broadcast media with indirect ability, through the intervention of the FBI and other government agencies, to silence the voices of critics through the major social media platforms: Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, You Tube, Tik Tok and Snapchat. This meant that information that might be politically damaging to the left (such as the release of Hunter Biden’s laptop just prior to the 2020 election and the accusations of fraud in the same election) could be ruthlessly suppressed. The cutting edge of this suppression was Twitter 1.0 because it was the social media space most frequented by the politically active and influential media, celebrity and businesspeople. In tandem with weaponising intelligence operatives (past and present ) to falsely declare Hunter Biden’s laptop as Russian disinformation, the Biden campaign used law enforcement agencies to pressure Twitter to take down all posts (and even suspend accounts) promoting or linking to the laptop story most particularly the New York Post who broke the story and had a link to the full contents of the laptop that had been digitized by the Marco Polo App. This was election interference at its most effective and sinister because post 2020 election polling showed that, had the truth of the laptop been allowed to disseminate and not be blocked by mainstream and social media, a significant minority of Biden voters might have changed their vote.

When Elon Musk bought Twitter in the summer of 2022, he not only fired the woke compliant left leaning management team but 75% of the whole work force and repositioned Twitter 2.0, renamed “X”, as a more neutral public square on social media. He engaged the services of prominent left leaning journalist Matt Taibbi who he allowed to pour over the files and, in a series of posts called the Twitter Files, revealed the extraordinary efforts undertaken by the Biden campaign then Administration to suppress any information critical of things like the Biden family corruption, Hunter’s laptop and 2020 election fraud as all this was deemed as dis or misinformation. Musk spent time removing the various algorithms that were embedded to screen for ‘misinformation’ and he restored the accounts of high profile Biden critics like Trump and even controversial figures like Alex Jones.

Whilst Mark Zuckerberg, via his ownership of Meta, has been able to continue to control content deemed to be damaging to the left on Facebook and Instagram and the same is true of Google influencing searching of Trump v Harris (against the former and in favour of the latter) and blocking accounts critical of Harris on You Tube, a raft of high profile conservative influencers who were suspended from Twitter were restored then allowed to tweet and post without restriction through the run up to the 2024 campaign. Twitter/X became the favoured platform for numerous releases of information that were restricted or never covered by the other social media platforms and the MSM such as:

* Tucker Carlson’s explosive interviews with people from new right wing Argentinian President Milei, Barak Obama’s alleged former gay lover, January 6 whistleblowers and a raft of people with critical and controversial things to say.

* Robert F Kennedy Junior’s fight against his own former party to stay on the ballot as an Independent candidate for President and then his subsequent endorsement of Trump.

* Libs of Tik Tok who shines a light on the crazy social media posts of the radical left.

* Trumps rallies and indeed the speeches and campaign ads of a raft of conservatives whose content is banned elsewhere.

* On election day and in the run up, various abuses of election integrity perpetrated by local Democrat election officials were revealed in full making it harder to hide and easier to counter.

Breaking news of a controversial nature that would either be ignored by legacy media or suppressed by all other platforms can now be done freely on Twitter where, contrary to the naysayers that predicted that Twitter 2.0 would fail, it has increased its reach and viewership even more since becoming a genuine free speech platform. Musk’s decision to liberate Twitter has had a profound impact on the type of dialogue that could be had in the run up to the 2024 election and it became impossible for Harris and the Democrats to silence their critics in the way they were successfully able to during the 2020 election.

Tomorrow I will cover the last 5 points:

6. Greatly improved Republican ground game

7. The fall of legacy media and the rise of alternative media

8. The fear of global conflicts

9. The RFK Jr – Tulsi Gabbard coalition

10. The lawfare and assassination attempts against Trump backfired

The FSU reports:

Rather than admit to suppressing Oliver’s right to free speech, the principal has stubbornly maintained that Oliver’s entry never made it into the speech final in the first place, implying it wasn’t good enough to qualify.

There’s one problem the school hadn’t realised. Oliver – frustrated with the hypocritical treatment he was receiving from certain staff – had taken it upon himself to record some of his meetings with them discreetly.

The recordings repeatedly and very clearly show that the school accepted him into the finals of the competition, and then censored Oliver, solely for his views.

We obviously don’t recommend secretly recording others. But given what the recording shows, we think the school has absolutely no right to be lecturing Oliver about ethical standards.

Isn’t this so sad. A school leadership that lies to its own students and gaslights them. They have forced a 15 year old to record conversations with school leaders because they were saying things differently in public and private. What sort of moral example do the school leaders set for their students?

The Taxpayers’ Union has been exposing the massive costs to ratepayers of simple steps to beaches.

Some stairs at Milford Beach are costing $263,000, and Mayor Wayne Brown didn’t just knee jerk defend his Council, but agreed it was “disgraceful”. That is real leadership – recognising his responsibility is to ratepayers, not to defend the Council regardless.

Then this week the TU exposed that New Plymouth was spending $1.2 million on some access stairs to a beach. No that isn’t a typo. But Mayor Neil Holdom rushed in to defend it.

A real tale of two Mayors. I knew which one I would want as a ratepayer.

Chris Penk announced:

The Government is proposing further significant action to reform the building and construction sector to support more affordable homes and a stronger economy, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.

“If we want to grow the economy, lift incomes, create jobs and build more affordable, quality homes we need a construction sector that is firing on all cylinders,” Mr Penk says.

“That is why the next action in our reforms of the sector is to construct a new self-certification scheme for trusted building professionals and accredited businesses carrying out low risk building work.

“The building consent system is intended to protect homeowners from defective building work by requiring work to be inspected and consented by a Building Consent Authority. But the regime is inefficient and adds cost and time to the build process, which makes it harder for Kiwis to realise their dream of homeownership.

“It takes on average 569 days for a home be built and consented – amid a housing shortage, that is simply too long to wait.

“Today we are announcing plans to develop a new opt-in self-certification scheme for trusted building professionals and accredited businesses. The scheme, which will go through a robust consultation process, features two key pillars.

“The first is that qualified building professionals, such as plumbers, drainlayers and builders, will be able to self-certify their own work, for low-risk builds, without the need for an inspection. This brings them in line with electricians and gasfitters who can already do this and is something the industry has been calling for, for years.

“The second pillar is that businesses with a proven track-record – for example, group homebuilders who build hundreds of near identical homes a year – will be able to go through a more streamlined consent process.

“At the moment, a single-story basic home might go through 10 or more separate inspections. This is clearly too many and the cost-benefit has become unbalanced.

These sound like pragmatic changes which should make a difference to the ever increasing time and cost of construction. I note even Labour ave said they are supportive, which is great.

I lived in the Bay of Islands for 6 of the last 10 years and I am adament NZers going to the Treaty Grounds is important for NZ’s pathway forward. Especially so given the current Bill ACT has introduced. The opinion piece is behind NZH’s paywall – here are a few key points.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/why-the-waitangi-treaty-grounds-should-be-a-pilgrimage-for-every-student-alwyn-poole/G2JPNYEWGFH3THIR5XHPNDC3EU/

“All of these [Bay of Islands] experiences are wonderful and should be highly sought-after by New Zealanders and overseas tourists.

However, the real driver to bring our young people to the area is the foundational history of our nation as exemplified by the Waitangi Treaty Grounds.

The whole place is awesome – in the true sense of the word. Te Whare Rūnanga, The Treaty House, Te Kōngahu Museum of Waitangi, Te Rau Aroha Museum of the Price of Citizenship, Flagstaff, the Waka. Add to those features the sheer beauty of the site and the wonderful views across the bay and out towards those 144 islands.

…..

The Treaty Grounds enables deep learning and a fountain of knowledge on the foundations of our nation; from the arrival of Maori, to Abel Tasman clashing in Golden Bay, to Cook’s three visits, to the tribal wars and early clashes between cultures, to the traders that followed and onto the first missionaries and James Busby.

You can learn so much about what happened in the 1830s and 1840s; the flag and Declaration of Independence by the United Tribes, the Treaty of Waitangi and the signatories. You learn detail of many of the clashes and developments that followed. You learn of the names of the people of the time and their deeds for good and bad. You can also find many of their gravesites in the nearby towns which is a great anchor to reality.

…..

This makes the Treaty Grounds the pivotal geographic place to visit for a complete education. It is a place that rips away misunderstanding and bias while leaving plenty of room for passion and developing views.

…..

Our nation is still very young on a world history scale. That there is so much learning in one place is remarkable and the more of our population, young, adult and elderly, that experience it – the better we will be as a society.”

Alwyn Poole
alwyn.poole@gmail.com
Innovative Education Consultants Ltd
Education 710+ Ltd
(both sites currently being re-done)
alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

On my (paywalled) Patreon I detail how I think the New Zealand Government should deal with President Trump to get the best outcomes for NZ. The primary foreign policy goal must be to have NZ exempted from his 20% tariff policy on exports to the US.

It involves Chris Liddell, Peters, Luxon, Peter Thiel, Rod Drury and Peter Beck!

Trump’s victory over Harris was decisive enough that Democrats don’t have to try and second-guess decisions such as not picking Shapiro as VP, or not going on Josh Rogan. The fact almost every county in the US showed a swing to Trump indicates this was not a victory that could have been stopped by better tactics.

This may be a blessing in disguise for the Democrats because rather than make excuses like they did in 2016 (The Comey letter, the hacked DNC e-mails), they need to accept that they need to make changes to be more electable in future. I will come back to this.

Looking at the results, we have:

Presidency

Trump will win 312 to 226, having swept all seven swing states. This is slightly better than the 306 to 232 he got in 2016 and Biden got in 2020.

He also looks to have won the popular vote, where he has a 3.4% lead currently. So Democrats can’t say he only won due to the Electoral College.

Senate

The GOP has won 52 seats already, and are ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania which would Gove them 54 seats. Trailing slightly in Michigan and Wisconsin.

A 54 seat majority will mean that the two more moderate Republicans will not have the balance of power, and Trump will be able to get most things easily through the Senate. It also ironically helps the moderated Republicans as they can vote against Trump on some issues (which helps them get re-elected) but not actually stop the agenda (which can upset the base).

I think it is also very likely the Republican majority willed the filibuster, so laws can pass with a simple majority. The Democrats made the fatal mistake of saying they want to end the filibuster, but being unable to do so. This means the Republicans know that the Democrats will get rid of it next time (if they can), so there is no incentive to keep it, as when the Republicans hit the minority it will go anyway. So this will be a key thing to watch for – does the filibuster go, and who becomes the new Senate Majority Leader.

House

The Republicans are at 202, and need 218 to keep the majority. They have four fairly safe seats which brings them to 206. They lead in 11 toss-up seats. If they keep the lead in those they make 217 – one short. But they have leads in two seats that Democrats were seen as likely to hold. However one is only 71% counted, while the other is over 95%. So they have a path to 219, but could fall short. It may take days or longer to know who wins the House.

If the Republicans retain the House, then Trump will be able to pass significant legislation. If he doesn’t, then more rule by executive order.

Demographic shifts

They did exit polls in 10 key states (so not the whole country). Some key data points:

• Trump got 21% of the black men vote
• Trump won Latino men by 55% to 43%
• Trump won men under 30 by 49% to 47%
• Trump won never attended college by 63% to 35%
• Harris won post-graduate degree holders by 59% to 38%
• Harris won those earning (family income) over $200k by 51% to 45%
• Trump won those earning $30k to $50k by 53% to 45%
• Trump won veterans 65% to 34%
• Trump won voters who said the economy, immigration of foreign policy was the most important issue
• Harris won voters who said abortion or democracy was the most important issue
• While Harris won by 87% to 10% those said abortion should be legal in all cases, it was 495 each for those said it should be legal in most cases.

The changes from 2016 and 2020 are massive in some cases:

• Women went +13% for Clinton and only +8% for Harris – so Trump did relatively better with women
• Men went +11% for Trump in 2016 and +13% in 2020
• Clinton won Latino men by +31% and in 2024 Trump won by +12% – a massive massive change
• Latino women went from +44% Clinton in 2016 to +22% Harris in 2024 – also a big swing
• Voters of colour with no degree went from +56% Clinton to +30% Harris
• Under 30s went from +19% Clinton to +11% Harris
• Those who think abortion should be legal in most (not all) cases went from +38% for Biden in 2020 to tied in 2024

This has huge ramifications for Democrats in a number of areas. The massive swing for Hispanics to Trump could lock the Republicans in power for a generation, if they can keep them. After 2012, the Republicans were facing the Hispanic vote becoming like the Black vote – locked in for Democrats. Trump won Hispanics over, despite the conventional wisdom that his attacks on immigrants would see Hispanics vote against him.

The big lesson for Democrats is that have to stop seeing voters through a race lens. They seemed to think that as most Hispanics are immigrants, they will vote on the issue of immigration. They voted on incomes and jobs and leadership.

The abortion issue is also one that didn’t play as well for Democrats as they thought. Certainly for those who think abortion should be legal in all circumstances, it was a huge issue. But for those who want abortion legal, but in most (not all) circumstances they voted equally for Trump and Harris.

For the Democrats to win in 2028 (and JD Vance could be a formidable candidate), they need to do the following (in your opinion):

• Enthusiastically support making the border more secure. You can be 100% pro-immigration but also 100% pro a secure border. If the Democrats want to win in 2028, they should support construction measures that make the border more physically secure, and also support some sort of out of country processing of asylum claims as this has become a rampant backdoor.
• If Trump proceeds with his tariffs, they should use this to position themselves as the party of low inflation. The fact they presided over two years of very high inflation was a major factor in their result.
• They need to get less woke. They need to understand that working class voters and many Hispanic voters are not into DEI and don’t think men should compete in women’s sports. Of course they will never be “conservative” on these issues, but they need to stop seeing everything through an intersectional lens. A huge number of voters were prepared to overlook all of Trump’s flaws because they thought the country’s institutions were so hostile to them.
• Recognise that abortion will not be a major issue by 2028, unless there is some sort of federal ban, or mail order abortion drugs are restricted. If abortion rights did not win in 2024, it won’t in 2028. This is not to say Democrats should change their position (I personally support abortion being legal up to viability) but that they shouldn’t see it as the main issue to campaign on.
• Democracy may be an issue that works for Democrats in 2028. Trump won’t be on the ballot again, so the issue will probably be less potent. But if he acts in an excessively authoritarian way in office, then Vance may find it uncomfortable to defend those in 2028

This is more a list of what the Democrats shouldn’t do, rather than what they should do to win. That is because it is too far out to know what will be the issues most useful to them. However it is clear that if they don’t get many Hispanic voters back, they are unlikely to be back in power anytime soon.

Some media have trumpeted a poll from Ipsos that says 65% of NZers support a Capital Gains Tax. But they over look the fact that when you ask about details, they actually oppose most aspects except what we already have.

The actual support for different things being taxed are:

• Sale of an investment property 57%
• Sale of a business 43%
• Sale of other assets 22%
• Sale of family home 13%

Investment properties that are sold within the bright line period are already fully taxed.

A CGT such as the Cullen TWG recommended actually only has 22% supporting it – a far cry from 65%.

Also worth noting that if a CGT comes in, then 58% want other taxes reduced to compensate and only 29% want it to be used to increase the overall tax take.

Over 150 million people have voted in the United States at around 200,000 polling places. At this stage no one in the world knows the result. Everyone will find out at the same time how things are looking as the results come in. There is something very equalising about elections. Because it is so decentralised, no President,. Governor or candidate knows the result before anyone else. You have to wait for the teams and teams of election officials, watched by scrutineers, to tally up the votes at each place.

Use this thread to post updates and reactions as results come in.

My vibe based predictions are:

• Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada for 257 electoral votes and Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania for 281 electoral votes
• The GOP flip 3 Senate seats and take it 52 – 48
• Democrats flip the House, but having a majority of five or less

I expect (and hope) I am wrong.

UPDATES:

1. At 2 pm, Trump is up to 67% on the Polymarket betting market
2. Trump has won Florida, as expected. Harris done worse than expected in Miami-Dade, which suggests Hispanic voters have gone more for Trump
3. NY Times Needle has Trump slightly favoured to win, ahead in Pennsylvania at 51% probability
4. NY Times Needle no longer has Harris as favourite to win any of the seven swing states – tied in Wisconsin and Michigan, and trailing in all others
5. NY Times Needle now has Trump as 66% probable to win.
6. Polymarket has Trump at 80% to win. Almost all over.
7. Trump at 89% on Polymarket
8. NY Times has Trump at 78%, now 83%
9. NY Times is projecting Trump will win the popular vote
10. And Trump now deemed “likely” to win by NY Times at 88%

Now all over/ Trump has won the Electoral College, and the GOP has won a majority in the Senate – somewhere from 51 to 56 seats. The House outcome won’t be known for possibly days, but if it follows the other results you’d have to say likely GOP increases its majority.

This would give Republicans control of both chambers and the presidency. I suspect the new Senate will ditch the filibuster, so there could be some significant law changes to come.

A guest post by Yolkovermarmite, a conservative Kiwi living in the US, who supports Kamala Harris in this election:

Everyone highly interested or concerned about the election tonight will be experiencing their own copium today, from avoidance of all discussion and staying off social media, to burying themselves in work, or, in my case, giving into the ‘fun’ of burying into it for the last few months around the edges of my actual life. This election has been another wild ride with the sudden change of horse against the guaranteed madness of King Trump. 
This race is likely close, though maybe not as close as all the herded polls would tell you. I think I can make a strong case for why either candidate can win, and for Trump that would include consumer confidence lagging the improving economy, combined with hazy memories of the ‘good’ Trump economy, continued fears over inflation, a definite fear of immigration, and maybe even some of the culture war stuff connected to Trans issues. However, as I hate Trump, to the bottom of my core, I don’t want to break down what could lead him to win, other than to acknowledge that I see and understand those arguments. What I would rather do, as a much more enjoyable exercise for me on election day, is to set out the reasons for why Harris can and will win, then set out election night predictions and my final, optimistic, electoral college split for Harris.
Reasons why I think Kamala Harris will win (from most important to least):
The Gender Gap
The most important reason that Harris will win the election, is that the gender gap is the most pronounced of my lifetime, with more women supporting Harris than men supporting Trump. Has been the case ever since Dobbs and the rolling back of abortion rights across so many states, exacerbated by Trump’s clear misogyny and general creepiness towards women (“support women whether they liked it or not”), surely reminding many that he has been a proven creep from the pussy grabbing tape, to the Jean Carroll rape case, to this week’s revelations about the sexual assaults that Trump performed in the presence of his “good friend” Jeffrey Epstein. I think it’s clear that pollsters that are herding together for comfort by basing their voter screens on 2020, are potentially missing a quiet political realignment post Dobbs, amongst older women, especially Boomer women, focused initially on abortion, and now broader reproductive rights aligned to the threats to IVF and female contraception that Project 2025 has brought sharply into view. Joining these older women who in their youth fought for those rights, is a sharp incline of newly registered voters, disproportionately featuring young women, who understand that the rights secured for them by boomer women, directly impact their reproductive rights today. 
Incredibly, given that there are more women than men in the national voter pool, and women are higher propensity voters than men, rather than trying hard to reassure women that their rights are safe with him, Trump decided to focus on turning out a matching lead amongst men, especially young men, even though the voters with the lowest propensity for voting are young males. I do not think that’s generally a winning strategy and right now that is reflected in the early vote, where women have voted at a percentage 10 points higher than men. 
If you take in the cross-tabs from how the Democrats blunted the feared ‘red wave’ in 2022, along with the outcome of special elections and abortion referendums in red and purple states since 2022, and the surprising high quality polling from top notch pollsters in Kansas and Iowa, it’s clear that women hold the key to this election, and Harris has certainly noticed this, with abortion and Project 2025 being heavily featured again in the last couple of weeks of the campaign. The Selzer poll in Iowa may not actually play out with a Harris win, but if it is directionally accurate, then the Trump campaign can look back on Trump’s disdain towards women and their rights, as a key reason for why he lost. 
The (usually accurate) Selzer poll that has Harris leading in Iowa, states that her surprising lead is driven by an underrepresented percentage of the population in herded polls, which are older postmenopausal women who fought so hard to get reproductive rights in the first place, now deeply concerned for their daughters and granddaughters and are aware of the stories of the many young women who have died unnecessarily in states like Texas. This is especially true of women who live in red states that have recently imposed six-week abortion bans with little or no exceptions for circumstances. The extent and enthusiasm of gender gap alone can really harm Trump this election.
Economy & Inflation
One key issue that initially pointed to Trump being a runaway winner, no matter who the Democrats ran against him, was the perceived state of the economy and undeniable impact of high inflation on voters. This was despite the US economy under Biden, performing much better than almost all other countries in the same timeframe. Crucially, the economy and inflation continuing to recover since Harris entered the race, along with her disciplined messaging on the economy, gave Harris the chance to draw even with Trump on the economy, allowing other issues to take greater primacy, like reproductive rights and democracy. 
Running an Excellent campaign
Whatever happens tonight, it must be recognized that Harris, in a very short time, stood up and ran an excellent campaign. Harris hit it out of the park with each of the critical set pieces that feature in every campaign – the launch including her choice of Vice President, the convention, the debate where she thrashed Trump, her interview with Fox News, and her close. Not since Obama of 2008, have I seen any Presidential candidate manage these set pieces so successfully. 
Has the campaign been perfect? Of course not, in the middle of her campaign, after she had built a slight lead, she perhaps fell into the trap of playing ‘prevent defense’ being too cautious and middle of the road in her messaging. I think it was unfortunate that she pulled back from I think were populist messaging winners such as attacking price gouging. I also think she could have used Tim Walz a bit more, because he is great on television taking on Republicans. But these are minor things, and in so many ways I think she has been an outstanding candidate, and I have no doubt that if Biden was still the nominee, especially after that ‘garbage supporters’ gaffe he made recently, we would be facing a run-away Trump win. 
I think her performance as a candidate, and her campaign team’s discipline, has put her into the best possible position to win tomorrow night and if she does not win, I do not think it is because of the campaign that she ran, rather than the underlying factors like Biden’s unpopularity, that will be largely to blame. 
Get Out The Vote (GOTV) 
Connected to running an excellent campaign is building, in a tight race, a well-funded, very professional, very disciplined GOTV campaign through all of the campaign, building on what Biden bequeathed her as he had invested early and heavily in the ground campaign, once it became clear that he would struggle to get re-elected. Trump on the other hand, has relied on a couple of bros in Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk, who are not professional campaigners and have little to no experience in getting out the vote in swing states and that could mean they under-perform their own GOTV by an extra point or two. Elon Musk hilariously fired all of his Michigan canvassers from one of these groups over the weekend, because it turned out that not enough of them had been canvassing voters but had been faking knocking on doors to just pick up the cheque, which was only discovered after reporting from the Guardian newspaper. 
Avoiding Explicit Identity Politics
I think it has been smart that in this election, that Harris has avoided the temptation of overt identity politics on her gender and ethnicity. I think Hillary Clinton did Harris a great service in this regard, breaking through the glass ceiling with her historic run in 2016 meant that when Harris got into the race, she did not need to belabor the point that she would be the first female president and able to avoid most of the dumb questions that Hillary faced, such as ‘could a woman be suitable as a commander-in-chief?”. 
Not having to rehash those types of questions, Harris avoided the potential downsides of making explicit references to her gender and ethnicity as arguments to support her candidacy, focusing on more inclusive (and generic) arguments relating to why and how she would work for us and highlighting the dangers of re-electing Trump. At the same time, she made implicit and positive references to her gender and ethnicity, with high-profile appearances and endorsements from iconic black female entertainers and leaders, highlighting women, and her case with women, while not denigrating men or white people in the process. It is how a candidate can send a dog-whistle to some of their most highly motivated base, without agitating other parts of the electorate into voting against you. I would vote for a bucket of flaming turds over Trump, and that is what I am almost solely focused on, however, if Harris wins, I will look forward to enjoying America’s long-overdue ascension of a woman to the most powerful political position in America, and therefore the world.
Ironically, it is Trump who is leaning hard into white male grievance politics on anti-immigrant racial politics and gender, something that worked for him in 2016, but likely more counter-productive this time. 
Tariffs
“Tariffs baby, big fat tariffs” there’s nothing that Trump seems to love more than a tariff. He even peddled this insane idea that he could remove domestic income tax entirely and replace it with tariffs, as that is how much he loves tariffs. Problem is, you know who does not love tariffs? American farmers, who he hurt with unfocused tariffs the first time he was president. In rural mid-western states like Iowa, after abortion, his proposed array of new tariffs may further depress some of that farm-led support. I think it was smart of Harris to call those tariff proposals “Trump’s Sale Tax” she clearly thought it would hurt him a bit with producers and consumers alike, and I agree.

Predictions
Harris wins the Popular Vote
I think recent polls and special elections in Kentucky, Iowa, and Kansas, makes the MAGA trumpeted notion that Trump finally wins the popular vote fanciful, because of the ongoing opposition to those bans driving conservative older women, and newly registered younger women to turn against the GOP. Is that opposition enough to see Iowa turn blue tonight? I don’t think so, but it is likely enough to depress the winning margins for Trump in those red states, to more than offset the gains Trump has made in New York and California where he has recently campaigned, probably to help drive another ‘stop the steal campaign’ by winning (or just losing) the popular vote if he loses the Electoral College. I think that Marist Poll of Harris now winning by four points nationally, is likely correct, or close to it.
Trump Underperforms his Polls
Not enough has been made, I think, of Trump underperforming his polls since his overperformance in 2020. For instance, in the Republican primary season this year, yes he won the Primary, but consistently underperformed his polls in state after state against Nikki Haley, even after she dropped out but remained on the ballet. I think that weakness within the GOP is reflective of Non-MAGA conservative women’s unease with Trump and I think that will cost him again. In the 2022 midterms, the most Trumpy candidates, selected by Trump, competing in swing state races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona for the midterms, all badly lost, underlining the voter realignment post-Dodds, and the first time Trump began paying a price for delivering Dodds and potentially his attempts to thwart democracy on January 6th. Democrats, since Dodds have consistently overperformed in all special elections across various states. This shows the continuing potency of Dodds.
Early Vote going for Harris
There is a danger in over-interpretating early voter data, however, it is encouraging that the split of the early vote shows potential softening of Republican Registered vote for Trump, underlining the theory of the case above may already be holding true, that enough Haley Primary voters, especially conservative women, are moving away from Trump. We shall see.
Late Breakers are also going for Harris
That final Marist Poll (A rated), showing a 4-point national spread to Kamala Harris (51% – 47%, the biggest lead of their cycle, which they put down to late deciders breaking decisively for Harris. 4 points nationally would more than likely be enough for a narrow to moderate EC win. 

So… finally, proof in the pudding, my Electoral College total and Electoral College Map. It would be more prudent to follow the majority of pundits and wager Harris to win with an EC total of 276 (Blue Wall + Nevada), but what is the fun in that? I’ll go with the much more ambitious total below:
Harris: 308 Trump: 230
https://www.270towin.com/maps/GjdlZ
Harris wins all the swing states other than Arizona, and only loses by a handful of points in Iowa.
In the final analysis, I believe women will deliver this election to Harris, especially older white, conservative leaning women, on Dobbs, Democracy, and sufficient comfort with the upward trajectory of the economy.

Simon Court said:

“My bill would repeal the monopolies held by the Invercargill, Mataura, Portage and Waitakere Licensing Trusts. It would break these communities free from silly rules and give entrepreneurial locals the ability to sell alcohol under the same rules that apply nationwide.

“West Auckland is growing rapidly. But there are only eight venues licensed as taverns or hotels in West Auckland to serve a population of 296,000 – one for every 37,000 residents. In Auckland as a whole, there is one venue for every 3,900 people.

“The community is being underserved. It means that some locals either go without the services that other Aucklanders rightfully expect the market to provide, or they have to travel and spend their money elsewhere in Auckland.

“The current rules are a confusing mess. In my home patch of West Auckland, you can operate a hotel, but you’re not allowed a bar or room service. Supermarkets can’t sell alcohol, but you can get it delivered to your door. It’s totally ridiculous.

So 90% fewer outlets for locals to choose from when there is a monopoly, and you can’t buy a bottle of wine at the local supermarket. Ridiculous.

The FP reports:

On Wednesday, the day after the election, most of us are going to roll out of bed, have our breakfast, and get on with our day—no matter which presidential candidate wins. But students at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy—where diplomats and policymakers are molded—have another option: They can play with Legos. Seriously.

In an email to McCourt students, Jaclyn Clevenger, the school’s director of student engagement, introduced the school’s post-election “Self-Care Suite.” 

“In recognition of these stressful times,” she wrote, “all McCourt community members are welcome to gather. . . in the 3rd floor Commons to take a much needed break, joining us for mindfulness activities and snacks throughout the day.” 

And what are these activities:

10:00 a.m.-11:00 a.m.: Tea, Cocoa, and Self-Care
11:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.: Legos Station
12:00 p.m.-1:00 p.m.: Healthy Treats and Healthy Habits
1:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m.: Coloring and Mindfulness Exercises
2:00 p.m.-3:00 p.m.: Milk and Cookies
4:00 p.m.-5:00 p.m.: Legos and Coloring
5:00 p.m.-6:00 p.m.: Snacks and Self-Guided Meditation

Students pay US$60,000 a year to go to McCourt. I hope they get at least chocolate chip cookies for their fees.

Future Labour Leader Michael Wood has been decrying the possibility that airport security may be devolved from CAA to individual airports. He says this is terrible.

However a reader has pointed out to me that seaport security is done by the 21 ports, not by the Government. The Government has an overall regulatory role, but doesn’t actually run the security checks at each port.

No reason this model is unsuitable for airports.

The Taxpayers’ Union reports:

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union can reveal through an official information act request that Sports NZ’s “Say Thanks to Your Coach” campaign cost $171,598, with Sports NZ contributing $131,598 and Coach for Life contributing a further $40,000. The campaign featured a website for a month, which was used to send e-cards and video messages.

Commenting on this, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said:

“Sports NZ’s ability to somehow spend more than $575 per thank-you email takes the gold for government waste.

This is a great example of what waste is in the system, when some on the left insist that you can;t cut funding without impacting core services.

To spent $172,000 on a campaign that generated 298 e-mails is appalling.

Vision for Wellington has announced:

It’s no secret that Wellington faces challenges. Let’s do something about about them.

Vision for Wellington unites people passionate about Wellington and committed to seeing our city thrive. We’re a bipartisan, collective voice advocating for Wellington and aiming to set a bold direction for the city.

We will facilitate expert-led panels early next year, gathering local thought leaders in areas like innovation, arts and culture, events and hospitality, economic growth, transport, infrastructure, civic leadership and distinctiveness. Wellingtonians will be able to attend, share, and contribute. We aim to inspire, and to be inspired.

Our goal is to co-create a Vision for Wellington – something aspirational and practical in equal measure – and a source of pride and positivity about the city and its future.

Good to see people come together to try and provide the leadership that is lacking at Wellington City Council. The list of founders is very impressive:

• Peter Biggs
• Sinead Boucher
• Mike Egan
• Myles Gazley
• Sir Bob Jones
• Aaron Leech
• Sarah Meikle
• Rob Morrison
• Fran O’Sullivan
• Kristen (KP) Patterson
• Neil Paviour-Smith
• Luke Pierson
• Dame Kerry Prendergast
• Dame Patsy Reddy
• Phil Royal
• Dame Therese Walsh
• Dame Fran Wilde
• Simon Woolf

Two former Mayors, a former Governor-General and one of our top business leaders, plus many more.

I encourage people to sign up for updates. We need to change the status quo, with a positive vision and people who can make that happen.

Radio NZ profiles The Pākehā Project:

A group of Pākehā is embracing the opportunity to honour Te Tiriti, saying that a commitment to tino rangatiratanga strengthens, rather than divides, Aotearoa.

The Pākehā Project is an organisation of tangata Tiriti leaders who run programmes and workshops for Pākehā, aimed at deepening their understanding of the constitutional foundations of Aotearoa. …

The Pākehā Project’s work was focused on helping people become comfortable with discomfort-acknowledging emotions such as grief, rage, guilt, and shame, without using them as a tool for blame, Sinclair said.

“We don’t try and shame people or make people feel guilty, but we know that’s going to come when you start to open yourself up to these stories and start to see the harm that has been caused by whiteness in the world.”

This group is so dripping wet that you could fill up a swimming pool with them.

She said such sentiments only underscored the importance of anti-racism education.

“This gave me a small glimpse into the hate that fear can elicit. And it is exactly why we need programmes like ours and many others that directly address how racism and oppression work.”

I’d say ascribing harm to the the colour of ones skin is a prime example of racism.

UPDATE: It’s a very profitable grift.

You pay $15,000 per person to be taught how bad white people are. I wonder how many government departments are clients!

The NY Post reports:

P’nut the Squirrel, of internet fame, has been euthanized after the pet was seized by New York state earlier this week, according to the Department of Environmental Conservation.

The seven-year-old gray rescue squirrel, commonly referred to as “P’Nut” on Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok, was put to death, along with Fred the raccoon, so that the animals could be tested for the presence of rabies, according to a statement from the agency obtained by WETM.  

He had the squirrel as a pet for seven years. The government raided his house, searched it for five hours, and then killed P’Nut. All because of an anonymous complaint from someone in Texas.

This is why we should be wary of giving too much power to governments.

The hysterical smears continue. Some on the left live in a fictional world where only organisations they agree with are grass roots organisations, and when an organisation succeeds they disagree with, their minds are so limited they think it must be due to overseas big money.

Funnily enough they never scrutinise the organisations they like. Action Station doesn’t even publish annual accounts because they are a company.

The FSU was created because Auckland’s Mayor claimed he blocked two Canadian speakers from being able to speak at a Council venue. Then Massey deplatformed Don Brash and support grew, and thanks to the efforts of so many on the left, support keeps growing for the FSU as we see weekly examples of attempts to sack people for their political opinions.

As I understand it the FSU has around 70,000 supporters on their mailing list. And over 10,000 have donated to the FSU. You can’t get more grassroots than that. But Greg can’t actually deal with the possibility that the FSU is a successful grassroots organisations, so he resorts to conspiracy smears.

Some on the left don’t understand that the Internet has allowed ordinary New Zealanders to organise and support causes they believe in. Whether it be Taxpayers’s Union, Groundswell, Free Speech Union or Hobson’s Pledge – they all get the vast bulk of their funding through thousands of small dollar donations from ordinary New Zealanders.

I previously blogged on how the Electoral Commission referred Te Pati Maori to the Police for not filing their annual financials statements by 30 June 2024, as required by law.

Their party secretary is Lance Norman (a manager in one of the Tamihere organisations) and I wonder if he realises the personal risk he is at.

S210J(2) of the Electoral Act says:

A party secretary is guilty of a corrupt practice if the party secretary, without reasonable excuse,(a) provides the Electoral Commission with annual financial statements for the party after the late period; or
(b) fails to provide the Electoral Commission with annual financial statements for the party.

The late period is 15 working days from the deadline, so 21 July 2024, which we are three months past. So Mr Norman could be charged with a corrupt practice, not just an illegal practice.

And what is the penalty?

either or both a term of imprisonment not exceeding 2 years or a fine not exceeding $100,000

The fine might not be a concern as he could be reimbursed for that, but if I was Mr Norman I’d be very worried about the possibility of jail time, unless he has a reasonable excuse for not providing the party’s financial statements as required by law.

Tama Potaka announced the appointment of Richard Prebble, Ken Williamson and Kevin Prime to the Waitangi Tribunal.

Some people think the Tribunal is a judicial body, but in reality is is appointed by the Government of the day. 19 of 20 members have a maximum term of three years, so in one term of Government the Government will appoint 95% to 100% of the members.

Those who claim the Waitangi Tribunal, not Parliament, should decide what the Treaty means should reflect that this can mean the Government of the day can decide, by simply appointing members with a particular viewpoint.