The Aotearoa Educators’ Collective

I had never heard of the Aotearoa Educators’ Collective, until they were quoted at length in this Newsroom article, criticising the Government’s curriculum refresh. I looked up their website and found this is their policy platform:

  • The primary responsibility for schooling is to create critical creative citizens invested in participatory democracy with capacity to combat social injustice.
  • Education should address long seated inequities and injustice through curriculum design.
  • Success at school cannot be reduced to achievement in literacy and numeracy

So they want schools focus on giving students the capacity to be social justice activists, and to deprioritise literacy and numeracy.

If they are unhappy with what the Government is doing, this can only be a very good thing.

Black Sea Security Forum Day 2

The topics for Day 2 were:

  • “Grain and Waves: Odesa Emerges as the World’s Major Port”
  • “A Dive in the Black Sea for Trump: Post-Election Speculations and Implications
  • Wartime challenges for the Black Sea states
  • “The Black Sea: A Crucial NATO Asset – Rectifying Missteps from the Bucharest Summit”
  • “Charting the Path to Resolve the Transnistrian Conundrum”
  • “From the Varangians to the Greeks: The Revival of the Baltic-Black Sea Union”
  • “HOW could we STOP the RUSSIAN influence on the elections IN MOLDOVA?”

Panelists included:

  • Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
  • Brooks Newmark, former British MP, former Minister of Civil Society
  • Rémi Duflo,Charge d’Affaires, EU Delegation to Ukraine
  • Ambassador Cindy McCain, Executive Director of World Food Programme
  • Michael C. Ryan, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy
  • James O’Brien, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs
  • Ambassador Kurt Volker, former Special Representative for Ukraine of the US
  • Michał Kamiński, Deputy Speaker of the Senate of the Republic of Poland
  • Francois Hollande, former President of France
  • Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator
  • Mihai Popșoi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova
  • Pavlo Klimkin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
  • Margareta Cederfelt, Swedish Member of Parliament,
  • Kira Rudik, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament, Leader of Party “Golos”,
  • Indrek Saar, former Leader of the Social Democratic Party of Estonia
  • Alexandru Balan former deputy director of SIS Moldova
  • Radu Burduja, former Deputy Minister of Defense and Military Representative of Moldova to NATO and the EU

I list them just to get across that these were not garden variety pundits (like me). These were very senior and experienced politicians and officials from not just Ukraine, but also Moldova, Sweden, Estonia, Poland, France, the US and UK.

One (semi) amusing thing I learnt is that when there are foreign dignitaries in Ukraine, they actually increase missile and bombing activity, to send a message to pother countries to stay away. The reason I call this semi-amusing is because I had assumed the opposite. When deciding whether to attend, I reasoned that Russia would be more restrained and do less bombings as they wouldn’t want to kill a former President of France. But as it turns out, it was the opposite!

My notes are not as detailed as Day 1, as I was too busy listening to write as much, but some salient points:

  • 20% of grain to other countries through World Food Programme comes from Ukraine, and much of it through Odesa and Black Sea. The conflict there has huge impact on food security
  • Port of Odesa has annual traffic capacity of 40 million tonnes
  • Ukrainian farmers have been targeted as well as soldiers. Russia has bombed tractors.
  • Both sea mines and land mines are big challenge to food security
  • Crimea is strategically vital, and if it remains with Russia, there will never be security in the Black Sea
  • There was a UN negotiated grain corridor, but it lapsed a year or so ago, yet Ukraine has managed to unilaterally manage a corridor by sinking so many Russian ships
  • A fascinating discussion on turning Odessa into a free trade zone like Hong Kong, once the conflict is over
  • Lots of discussion on what a Trump win will mean for the conflict.
  • One Trump supporters said that you need to make an economic case to Trump – Ukrainian victory is cheaper than alternative
  • Also highlighted that Trump likes to back a winner and take credit for it. So the better Ukraine can do in the next six months, the more likely he will continue support
  • Was stressed that who Trump appoints as NSA and in key staff roles will be key
  • Moldova has little domestic energy capacity – used to import almost everything from Russia, giving Russia huge influence and even control
  • Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has now freed itself from Russian gas supplies but is still dependent on electricity from a province controlled by Russia.
  • There have been a total of 10 wars since the collapse of USSR in this region – all involving Russia

The final point was the most salient one – that the biggest threat to Russian security is the Kremlin.

Putin has pushed Sweden and Finland into NATO

He has turned Ukraine towards Europe forever.

He has sent Moldova towards energy independence from Russia

NATO isn’t expanding because of NATO. NATO is expanding because all of Russia’s neighbours have seen that they need protection against Putin.

I spent a lot of time in Ukraine chatting to locals. I would always ask them what their reaction was when Russia invaded. Did they think it would happen? And most of them said that despite all the warnings it was coming, it was still a huge shock that Putin was trying to take over their country. Crimea had always been an area of dispute, but to actually have a fully fledged invasion was unthinkable.

The reason it was is that Ukrainians and Russians are like New Zealanders and Australians. They are friends and relatives. Many Ukrainians have Russian ancestry. They do not bear any ill well against ordinary Russians, just against Putin.

A Jacinda documentary that gets it wrong before they start!

Yahoo News reports:

Madison Wells will produce a documentary focusing on the public and private life of Jacinda Ardern, the trailblazing Prime Minister of New Zealand who helped introduce strict gun laws following the 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings. She also led her country through the Covid pandemic and grappled with issues such as child poverty and climate change.

She did grapple with them. A careful choice of words.

The feature-length film is currently untitled. It follows Ardern from the moment she receives the Labour Party nomination to the birth of her child to her resignation in 2023, when she was at the height of her power and popularity. 

This statements suggests the so called documentary will not be based in the real world.

Here is a chart I previously published on her popularity.

Hard for their statement to be more wrong. Ardern’s popularity peak was +72%. When she resigned from office it had plummeted to -1%.

Even more Tana allegations

Stuff reports:

Suspended Green MP Darleen Tana told a migrant worker he was able to work in her husband’s bike shop on a seasonal work visa – despite that visa clearly stating he could only work in horticulture and viticulture jobs.

The worker also claims Tana advised him to keep working in the shop during lockdown as it was essential work.

Previously the allegations were only around breaches of employment law. Now we also have breaches of immigration law and Covid-19 laws to add in.

And while just allegations, the article cites many messages from the MP or her husband as proof.

Nuts

The Herald reports:

Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown says heads must roll at Transpower after the grid provider revealed the collapse of a transmission tower and the resulting power outage in Northland was due to too many nuts on the pylon being removed.

Transpower chief executive Alison Andrew today confirmed a maintenance crew had removed the nuts of three legs of the pylon last Thursday. She said the proper maintenance procedures were not followed and called the improper work “unprecedented and inconceivable”.

It’s almost comical, apart from the impact. Hey lets remove all the nuts at the same time from three of the four four legs of this really tall tower, as that is quicker than cleaning them one at a time!

The case for and against letting Golriz off

The Herald reports:

Former Green Party MP Golriz Ghahraman will find out her punishment on Thursday for shoplifting more than $9000 in clothing. …

The sentencing hearing began with defence lawyer Annabel Cresswell telling the court a mental health report about Ghahraman was the crux of her submissions.

It found a “clear diagnosis of complex PTSD” with two key contributing factors: her early life in war-torn Iran and the “public vitriol, threats and abuse” she received while in Parliament.

As I blogged previously, Ghahraman grew up in Mashad, which is around 1,600 kms from the border with Iraq. That is like the distance between Auckland and Invercargill.

Cresswell said the “threats of rape and death were constant and ongoing and credible”, to the point where her security detail was similar to that of the Prime Minister.

It was not similar to the PM. In no way does that mean the threats were not vile and disturbing. The PM has 24/7 armed police officers. Ghahraman had a parliamentary security officer escort her on and off the campus.

Crown Solicitor Alysha McClintock said the offending had the hallmarks of pre-meditation.

“This was a spree of offending. It’s not a one-off event. It’s not a ‘moment of madness’-type case.”

There might be another explanation for the offending other than a mental health breakdown, McClintock said: “Simply that she wanted the items that she took.

”On its face, that explanation, given the [pre-meditated] nature of the conduct, appears the more likely of the two,” she said. …

The link between Ghahraman’s mental health and her criminal conduct was not as strong as the defence made it out to be, the prosecutor argued, noting a mental health assessor found there was “a possible link”.

”The possibility of that is no more than that – a possibility.”

So that’s the case for the defence and the prosecution.

Stuff reported:

Both the Crown and defence agreed that if the application for a discharge without conviction was dismissed, an appropriate sentence would be to convict Ghahraman and discharge her.

So the only issue is whether or not Ghahraman receives a conviction for her serial shoplifting.

How to reduce fetal alcohol spectrum disorder

1 News reports:

An alcohol harm prevention expert is calling for change after a damning report estimated the cost of alcohol harm to be at $9.1 billion dollars. 

The report was commissioned by the Ministry of Health in an attempt to estimate the cost of alcohol harm in New Zealand. 

It found the cost of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder at $4.8 billion, $4 billion in loss of productivity, and $2.1 billion in the societal cost of road crashes.

So half the cost is FASD. Reducing that will have huge benefits both economically and quality of life for those affected.

He said there was “really good strong evidence” and “international consensus” that the price, availability, and marketing of alcohol were “the most effective” things that New Zealand could change to reduce harm.

Not if we’re talking about FASD. FASD is not caused by me drinking. It is not caused me most people drinking. It is caused by moderate to heavy drinking by pregnant women in later stages of pregnancy. Eric Crampton tweets relevant stats here. Basically around 1% of pregnant women (who themselves are 1% of the population) drink heavily after the first trimester. Those pregnant women tend to be younger, lower income Maori or Pacific, smokers, have had previous children, pregnancies were unplanned and have no secondary qualifications.

Their heavy drinking during pregnancy does impose huge costs on society, and on the kids born with FASD who often go on to have wretched lives.

So how do you best make change here? You need to target 1 in every 10,000 New Zealanders. Do you do that with measures that impact everyone such as trading hours, price or do you look to do interventions aimed at a very small group of New Zealanders who can fairly easily be identified as likely to drink heavily in pregnancy?

Ridiculous story on Seymour

Newsroom has a ridiculous story on David Seymour, which can be summarised as this:

  • David Seymour responds to messages sent to him on social media, including Snapchat
  • Seymour does not ask people for their age before responding
  • No one has suggested any of his messages were in any way inappropriate
  • Seymour never initiated messaging someone, he only responded to their messages

Not one of Newsroom’s better stories.

Educating Duncan

Ben Thomas writes:

Seymour told the committee he used a working definition of regulation as “rules which restrict the use of private property”, causing Labour MP Duncan Webb to demand how rules like, say, clean air quality which did not relate to private property or money fit in.

Seymour, with an admirable restraint, explained the economic principle of externalities. That is costs (for example pollution) that are produced by individuals’ exercising property rights (like running a factory) and imposed on the majority, a market failure which invites the government to step in. Good regulation, in other words.

Economics may not be the be-all and end-all of government action. But it is a powerful tool for looking at policy problems. Webb, a former Minister of Commerce who was responsible for some of the Crown’s key regulators in the previous government, appeared to be encountering the concept for the first time.

This is very telling.

The rolling reviews of existing regulatory areas (so far early childhood education and agricultural veterinary products have been announced) by themselves represent a sea-change for the way “red tape” in the wild is reviewed. In the past departments have marked their own work, and politicians have rarely risen above gimmickry, like searches for archaic funny-sounding statutes or once-over lightly inquiries into (in a particularly cringeworthy 2017 exercise) “loopy rules”.

In contrast, the ministry will co-ordinate agencies across government to look at the impacts of regulation on all sides, as well as interviewing sector stakeholders. They will then, with the Parliamentary Counsel Office, produce concrete recommendations for amendments, rather than generalised 400-page reports useful as little except doorstops while the government “considers” their findings forever.

If the Ministry’s work produces actual legislative and regulatory changes, rather than just lengthy reports, then that will be a great thing.

Guest Post: Climate policy or Another Agenda

A guest post by Owen Jennings:

John Christy, the Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Centre at The University of Alabama, is widely recognised as an authority on what is happening climate-wise.

He shows with great clarity, in the graph below, why our government departments, regional and district councils plus some pressure groups who continue to use RCP 8.5 as a basis for policy-making are dishonest, deceptive and disillusioned. 

This extremism is not based in science or logic.  It is evidence of another agenda.

Jew rape spreads to France

The BBC reports:

French President Emmanuel Macron has said that schools in France are being threatened by the “scourge of antisemitism” after a 12-year-old Jewish girl was raped in what police said was a hate crime.

According to French media, the girl told police she had been in a park in Courbevoie, north-west of Paris, with a friend last Saturday when three boys – two aged 13 and one aged 12 – approached her. She knew at least one of them.

The victim said the boys dragged her away to an isolated location before hurling antisemitic abuse at her and raping her.

The boys were arrested on Monday and two of them were charged with gang rape, antisemitic insults and violence, and issuing death threats.

French media also reported that one of the attackers threatened to kill the girl if she went to the police.

This is shocking in so many ways. Rape is terrible, but rape of a 12 year old is even more terrible. But then add to that where it seems she was targeted because she is Jewish, and the fact the rapists were also 12 and 13, and it is beyond disturbing.

I do wonder where the alleged offenders learnt their hatred – was it parents, was it online or somewhere else?

Poor Invercargill

Invercargill just can’t get a break.

First they had to endure the final term of Tim Shadbolt, who obviously was no longer able to perform, the job. They had years of negative headlines, and probably relieved when Noddy Clark took over in 2022.

But alas, the current Mayor seems to be equally embarrassing.

This is a good example of why we should have recall elections in NZ.

Guest Post: Putting a Human Face on our Scary Police Force

A guest post by Sparticus Oblivious:

There are 327 police stations in NZ

Drive past 90% of them and you feel like you are living in soviet Russia, High mesh fences, Locked Gates, half a dozen police cars, and an old house resolutely shut.

Try ringing the local police station

You cant, you just bloody cant

You are told to ring somewhere else if it’s important

You are given an array of options, hanging yourself being the last one

You will be invited to partake in a survey

Your call will probably be diverted to the 105 call centre

They don’t actually say that your call is important to them, so its nice to know they are not yet that cynical, but they may as well tell you to fuck off.

You will be told there may be a considerable delay but if you are persistent, and have enough years still left to live, you will be put through to someone based god-knows where who will be really helpful, but who thinks Oratia is somewhere near Taupo.

All of the little police stations have their own web page, they generally say they are open 8.00am to 4.00pm. They have individual phone number that are listed as a cruel joke 

But there is a solution

Man the Stations

I know I know, radical, get out of here you subversive jerk.

By “man the stations” I mean have an open door through which any one can walk, and there will be a warm body there that will talk back to you when you talk to them, and if you ring the actual individual number for the actual individual police station you will get an actual person residing at the actual police station.

Imagine how much safer you would feel if you knew that that Colditz police station down the road was always manned by a friendly officer.

You could march your intransigent little 8 year old snot down to the cop shop for a stern telling off.

You could call in while walking your dog to say there was s suspicious looking car cruising around the neighbourhood.

It would be a safe haven for anyone being hassled for whatever reason.

It would cost say $20 million to upgrade the Stations, and maybe $60 million a year to man them from say 10am to 6pm each day. I would suggest 2 people be at each station, one Uniformed officer and one civilian. I am sure there would be many trainable semi-retired people who know the area and would be keen to help.

It would be the modern equivalent of bobbies on the street and the community engagement engendered would make us all feel safer.

Not a badge of honour

The Herald reports:

Campbell says he’s not bothered by what the business community thinks of his left-leaning views.

“I don’t mind being called a Marxist. I regard that as a badge of honour,” he says.

“I’d rather be a Marxist than a Friedmanite, if you take those two extremes. But the system we have is one that relies on, frankly, exploitation… exploitation of resources, and exploitation of people.”

The equivalent of a Marxist is a fascist, not a belief in supply side economics.

Around 100 million people have died due to communist regimes. Yet despite that the media won’t label Marxists as far left, yet use the label far right on huge numbers of people.

The NZ fibre success story

Reading this had me reflecting on how fortunate we were to have great governance and direction of NZ’s fibre to the home project led by Steven Joyce and Amy Adams. By having a clear goal, setting up a dedicate entity, using the private sector and competitive tenders we got 80% of NZ homes having access to fibre to the home. The net cost to taxpayers was under $1 billion and delivery occurred on schedule.

By comparison the Australian NBN rollout which was merely fibre to the cabinet cost over $50 billion and was constantly delayed and over budget.

And the US rural Internet project has connected not one home in three years (their version of Auckland Light Rail!).

It is a good reminder of how important it is to get the policy and governance right. Implementation matters.

Guest Post: Funding Infrastructure

A guest post by Gary Lindsay responding to the speech by Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop:

Chris Bishop’s speech regarding infrastructure has been a long time coming.  It’s great that a government is finally serious about the massive infrastructure deficit that has been building since the major (necessary) cuts in 1984.  Correcting a 40 year infrastructure deficit is huge, and it’s going to take a generation of nation building to do it.  Our grandparents did it between the 1940s and 80s, and I am sure our generation is up to the task.  I have major concerns with Mr Bishop’s proposals, particularly around the funding models proposed. 

Roading and infrastructure are as close to natural monopolies as you can get, and realistically in New Zealand there will always be government involvement.  We are stuck with it whether we like it or not.  All we can do is to try and find ways to make that monopoly more transparent, and to push the costs onto those who use the infrastructure as much as possible.  The real question is what that involvement looks like.  

Mr Bishop has discussed the way infrastructure is funded, and that the underinvestment has been the result of councils and the Crown siphoning away infrastructure monies in favour of other priorities.  I don’t think anyone disagrees with that statement at all.  He also discusses user pays, which is also a good idea.  This isn’t a fault with the way the money is raised; it’s a fault with a lack of accountability with how it is spent.  I also noticed that public transport was not discussed as something that could be user pays.

I’ll start by agreeing with him that user pays is a great way to fund roading.  The people benefitting from the roads should be those who pay for them.  That should go for all government services, not just roading.  But that’s where I begin to disagree with Mr Bishop.  We already have a system that achieves user-pays for roads (or would, if previous governments hadn’t used the money for something else).  We have fuel excise for petrol vehicles, and it’s a big one, making up about 70c/litre (plus GST, plus a few other levies).  Diesel and battery powered vehicles have RUCs which are also pretty steep.  But the flip side of that is they are relatively easy to administer and police – the fuel excise is levied before the retailer or consumer sees it, with the taxman needing to deal with less than 10 entities to collect it.  The RUCs are a bit harder, although it’s hardly onerous to spend 10 minutes to buy some online every 10,000 km and really easy to prove compliance on the side of the road.  It’s the most realistic way for a user pays system to work when a large proportion of the diesel sold isn’t actually used for road transport.   Overall it’s a good system, it’s easy to administer, and it isn’t in your face.  That method of raising money isn’t actually broken.

You only need look across the Tasman at the infrastructure in states like South Australia, Western Australia, and Tasmania, to see jurisdictions where a mix of fuel excise and registration works.  None of those states have toll roads, and all of them have much better road networks than New Zealand does, with a similar way of funding roads.  The argument that New Zealand is a big country doesn’t fly – WA is almost 10 times larger than NZ, and SA is about 3.6x larger.  While their roads are generally long and straight, the distances are huge and they still have geotechnically challenging areas like New Zealand does.   Even Australia’s poorest state, Tasmania, has better roads than New Zealand, and Tas has challenging terrain.  We can also look to the past.  In 1984 New Zealand had very good roads for the time.  Those roads were funded using the fuel excise and registration fees, not private money.   It is misleading of Mr Bishop to say that the manner of raising funds has caused this problem.  It has not.  Funding roads the way we currently fund them works overseas and worked in New Zealand in the past.

What I don’t like is the proposal for congestion charging and for mileage charging monitored by the state.  Changing a system that’s not broken to some sort of billing arrangement per kilometre is not going to make the funding arrangement better.  If it’s really about incentives, we already have an effective disincentive to travel during peak times – congestion!  A driver sitting in traffic on his way to work in peak hour has to pay with his time, which isn’t cheap (at an hourly rate of $50 per hour an extra half hour already costs the driver and his passengers $25 each), and in addition there is extra fuel excise due to the efficiency of the car needing to use more fuel per kilometre.  Adding an additional fee that is payable to the state is just adding insult to injury – most people who can travel at a different time already do.  It will only serve to raise money for the state.  Put in economic terms, the demand for road use during peak hour is inelastic.  The funding system isn’t broken.

The idea of tolling new roads has some merit.  This has been used successfully in New Zealand, with the Tauranga and Auckland harbour bridges both being funded by a toll, where the proceeds went to paying off the loan to build each of the bridges.  It also worked well in states like Queensland, where the Gateway and Logan Motorways were constructed in the 80s and 90s, and rebuilt more recently, funded entirely by tolls.  Subsequent (Labor) governments moved the goal posts by selling both roads to Transurban who use them as a cash cow.  Transurban DID fund the upgrade of both roads and the second Gateway bridge so it’s not entirely one sided, but everyone was OK with the original arrangement where the debt for the motorways and bridges were paid for by tolls.

Less successful have been schemes where the private sector pays up front.  It’s actually really risky venture for the initial investors; the Clem Jones Tunnel (known as the Clem 7) in Brisbane went bust before it was completed so was completed by the state then sold to Transurban at a discounted price – the replacement cost is way less than what was paid by the eventual owner.  About the same time some high profile roads in Melbourne and Sydney also went bust following completion.  This has had real consequences in particular for the Lane Cove Tunnel on Sydney’s north shore; it went bust like the Clem7 and was completed by the state then sold with a similar arrangement to the Clem 7 tunnel, but the original builder took a lot of shortcuts and caused so full of defects that will affect its long term viability.  The state government sold the tunnel knowing this and now the new owner is suing the state government.  In all cases the geotechnical modelling and traffic modelling were massively deficient and different to reality.  The retail investors lost everything, and it will be a very long time until a public private road can attract investors the way they did in Australia ten years ago.  Mr Bishop is dreaming if he thinks he can get something off the ground without the government underwriting it.

I don’t think it’s really about a pricing signal to incentivise efficient use of roads.  The amount of surveillance required to get such a system working raises some very serious privacy concerns, not least of which is that the state does not need to know where my vehicle is at any given time.  It’s simply not their business, and changing the way we fund roading will make it their business.  What else will that data be used for?  Will that become part of a social credit system, where the state can cut your rights because you drive too much?  Using surveillance to achieve a result that is already achieved without surveillance is massive overreach.  It’s totally unnecessary.  We had a taste of totalitarian surveillance between 2020 and 2022 and I don’t think anyone wants to go back to that, except those who got a taste of power.  Maybe that includes Mr Bishop, who publicly stated the government should go door to door to pressure people to get vaccinated.  I think I’ll leave this paragraph here.

Water infrastructure in Wellington was used as another example.  Anyone who follows this forum knows that’s a case of the council misappropriating funds away from core services.  Changing the funding mix will not fix that – there would be nothing preventing the councils from misappropriating money raised from water meters instead.  The problem isn’t the funding, it’s councils wasting it.  Anecdotal experience in other places I am familiar with, such as Kapiti and Southeast Queensland, says that the result of installing water meters will be an increase in the cost of water to the consumer with no improvement in service.  If water meters are made mandatory home owners need to be able to opt out of the scheme and use tank water and a septic system if they wish, because then at least there would be a limit to how much councils and the state can shake down residents.

The discussion about councils installing infrastructure went inevitably to the ACT party’s proposal for councils to receive the GST from new build to pay for infrastructure.  Councils already charge hefty infrastructure levies to developers (which are passed on to their customers), which they waste.  What on earth makes Mr Bishop and the ACT party think that giving them more wouldn’t result in more of the same?  Perhaps a better option is for the infrastructure for large developments to be built by the developers themselves, which would create a way better incentive for them to not waste the money.  The infrastructure could remain in private ownership with some sort of strata management scheme, and the councils could stay out of it entirely.  Heck, we could abolish councils in favour of strata management for all new developments.  Smaller developers would probably have to continue with the current contributions scheme sadly.

One thing that you have to do when you criticise is offer an alternative.  I think I have established that the issue is the use of the funds by governments and councils, not the way the funds are raised.  Addressing the issues with councils is probably the easier of the two problems to solve.  The amalgamation of the local councils in the 1980s has not resulted in better governance as promised.  In 1984 we didn’t have the council spending too much money on bikeways and art installations while 2/3 of the city’s water was lost to leaks.  The more recent Auckland amalgamation has had an even worse result, that council has too much power and is too ineffective.  We need smaller councils, with part time councillors who need a real job (or married to one) to survive, and the councils need to be limited in their scope to core services – water, roads, rubbish, libraries, etc.  I’m talking making it suburb level; for those in Wellington it would mean suburbs like Tawa, Johnsonville, Karori, Kilbirnie, etc., would each get their own council.  With smaller councils the councillors and mayors will be closer to the people and easier to approach.  The people will be different too; the councillors will be parents at the local school, businessmen who have an evening to spare once a week, and so on, rather than someone who is prepared to give up their normal life.  The councillors would be much less likely to make poor decisions when the result of their actions may be being told all about it by locals when they are out and about in town or when dropping their kids at school.  Nothing reinforces public opinion to a politician like having to drive for an hour to get your groceries.  Furthermore, if a council does get too big for its boots, it is relatively trivial for residents to move to a neighbouring council and pay rates there instead, at least in the cities.  Competition always results in better outcomes and governance is no exception (you can see this at a national level with all of New Zealand’s brightest moving overseas).  While the 1980s Labour government did a lot of good things, amalgamating the councils and extending their remit away from core services wasn’t one of them. 

The government wasting the fuel excise and RUCs is much harder because it will always be a state monopoly.  I propose sequestering those funds in a transport fund that cannot be put into consolidated revenue and must be spent on maintaining and upgrading state highways.  Real transparency and consequences for mismanagement are needed to make it work, so I also propose making the fund a corporation instead of a government department, with a company constitution outlining what can and cannot be spent.  That would put the directors in breach of their fiduciary duties if the funds were misallocated, opening them up to prosecution.  The company’s constitution could also require a level of transparency at the same level or better than that required by companies listed on the NZX, with perhaps even asking the NZX to collect quarterly and annual reports.  Finally, the company’s constitution could be protected by an act of parliament requiring some super-majority or referendum to change.

Finally, tolling new “roads of national significance” could be achievable – but on a couple of conditions.  If the state is underwriting the project, the state collects the revenue and puts it toward the debt incurred for its construction.  When the debt is repaid the road becomes part of the state highway network and becomes free to use, with maintenance paid for by fuel excise.  Don’t sell the road to private interests who will use it as a cash cow, as has happened in the eastern states in Australia.  If the road is constructed without state funding by a private firm or joint venture then that road is theirs forever – but don’t agree to change the existing road network to force people to use the new toll road, and make sure there isn’t a clause to prevent competition from a future state or council road (or if there is make it for a relatively short period, like 5-10 years).  The arrangements for private ownership of such roads in NSW, Vic, and QLD are full of clauses that give the owners exclusive rights to charge for monopoly infrastructure for a century.  Don’t do that.  It’s not fair to the public, especially in growth areas where these projects are being built.  A privately run toll road needs to stand on its own two feet without government assistance or protection, or it shouldn’t get built.

Finally please don’t introduce mass surveillance under the guise of road funding.  The public are not stupid.  We can see what you are doing and don’t like it.  National’s foundation principles were “To promote good citizenship and self-reliance; to combat communism and socialism; to maintain freedom of contract; to encourage private enterprise; to safeguard individual rights and the privilege of ownership; to oppose interference by the State in business, and State control of industry”.  Mass surveillance is not consistent with them in any way, shape, or form. 

Black Sea Security Forum Day 1

The Black Sea Security Forum was held over two days in Odesa, on the Black Sea. It was a fascinating discussion of politics, military and economics. The topics on Day 1 were:

  • “Battleship: Ukraine Overpowers the Black Sea Fleet, Rewriting the Game’s Rules”
  • “Beyond the EU: How Can Ukraine Shape a Post-War Europe?”
  • “Another World: Why Ukraine  Is Not There Yet?”

Some of the panelists on Day 1 included:

  • Colonel Richard Kemp CBE, British infantry battalion commanding officer in Afghanistan
  • Mamuka Mamulashvil, Commander of the Georgian Legion, Armed Forces of Ukraine 
  • General Welsey Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO
  • Emanuelis Zingeris, Lithuanian MP, Chair of PACE Delegation of Lithuania 
  • Ian Bond, former British Ambassador to Latvia and Deputy Director, Center for European Reform 
  • Tony Abbott, 28th Prime Minister of Australia

The discussion of the Battle for the Black Sea was fascinating because basically Ukraine has no navy, yet they have sunk, damaged or driven off around a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. They have pioneered using numerous drones to attack and cripple huge ships. This has changed the game around naval warfare. If I was Taiwan I’d be building a crapload of drones! They have also had commando squads on jet skis. The result has been their naval blockade of Ukraine collapsed, trade could resume and most Russian Naval ships have retreated from Criteria to Russia

The drones are equipped with advanced GPS and cameras, and have a low radar signature that makes them hard to detect.

They only cost 60,000 Euros each and were soliciting for donations at the Forum to buy some more.

The Black Sea is a critically important area for both trade and security. It used to be very open, but since 2014 it had become what one called a “Russian Lake”. It connects the Balkans, Middle East and North Africa. It is a major transit route for energy and has enormous oil resources.

General Clark was the most compelling speaker. He said that as Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine is entitled to do unlimited warfare in return, and that basically any military target in Russia is okay to strike – such as power stations. Having Western countries set limits on where there weapons can be used just encourages Putin.

He told the story of a discussion with Vietnamese generals about the massive US military bombing campaigns that were designed to intimidate them into surrender, but deliberately tried to minimise impact. It was meant to send a signal about how much destruction they could cause. The Vietnamese replied that they didn’t see the bombing as signals, just as ineffective!

He warned that a negotiated outcome is what Putin probably wants, but any new borders based on this will be temporary. If Putin gains five provinces as a reward for attacking, then of course he will attack again in future.

This was a common theme by almost every speaker there from other neighbouring countries. None of them see this conflict as being about Ukraine. It iOS about Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic States etc. These speakers were not academics or pundits, but senior MPs from their countries and to be blunt all of them are preparing for war. They are not increasing defence spending as a signal, they are doing it so they can defend themselves when Putin targets them.

General Clark talked about how you often have failure before success. In 1942 6,000 mainly Canadian infantry tried to capture the Port of Dieppe for a day, as a trial for a landing. It was a disaster and in six hours over half the men were killed, captured or wounded. Yet two years later D-Day was a huge success.

The issue of Putin threatening nuclear attack if some red line is crossed was discussed and it was pointed out Ukraine had already broken a dozen of his so called red lines. He often threatens a nuclear attack but has a very strong disincentive to use them.

Tony Abbott asked what should be response to any use of nuclear weapons by Russia? He asked if it should be Ukraine joins NATO immediately? Colonel Kemp has perhaps the most likely answer which is NATO would immediately destroy the Black Sea Fleet.

Tony Abbott also talked about his 2014 exchange with Putin after Russia downed a flight with many Australians aboard. He asked Putin for an apology to dead Australians and Putin tried to blame it on Ukraine and said the country had no right to exist anyway.

About said that everything for Putin is an incremental step to recreating the Russia of Peter the Great. If he wins in Ukraine then it shifts to Georgia, Moldova, the Stans, Baltic states and even Poland. He said we must get used to the prospect of war if we are to avoid it and need cultural rearmament as well as military.

Globally he said China wants to restore the Middle Kingdom and Iran wishes to unify the Muslim world under them. Ukraine is first fight in a global struggle we wish to avoid but the dictators want to have. They have a no limits partnership.

He concluded that this is about the right of people everywhere to choose their own destiny. The best hope of global peace is that Ukraine doesn’t fall.

Leave David Bain alone

As any long-term reader of this blog will know, I am no fan of David Bain. I am strongly in the “he did it” camp. However I was disappointed to read this article the Herald which:

  • Reveals his new name
  • Names his daughter
  • Reveals the town where he lives by
  • States his wife is a teacher at a nearby school

I think this is rather cruel (no not as cruel as killing your family but two wrongs don”t make a right). It was very appropriate to report on the murders 30 years on. I don’t even have a problem with the Herald door knocking him and asking for comment. There is journalistic value in that.

But what is the value in revealing his new name, especially knowing he changed it specifically after his former (new) name was published. This doesn’t just affect him, but his wife and kids.

His children may have friends who do not know their Dad is David Bain. Now everyone will know. His wife will now have everyone at her school knowing her as the wife of David Bain.

The Herald could have not revealed his new name. They could have stated he had a new name, without using it. That would have protected his family.

RIP Keith Locke

Have been notified that former Green MP Keith Locke has died, aged 79 or 80.

I doubt there was an MP I disagreed with on almost every policy issue from economics to foreign affairs to defence. Keith defended some despicable acts done by communist regimes.

But he was a lovely, nice person whom you could engage with at length constructively. He played the ball, not the person. And we did even work together a bit on the one thing we agreed on – Republicanism.

I am reminded of what the great P J O’Rourke said about Hillary Clinton in 2016:

She’s wrong about absolutely everything, but she’s wrong within normal parameters.

I sort of feel the same about Keith Locke. He was a decent man, who was steadfast in the beliefs he had all his life from childhood to death. I enjoyed the interactions I did have with, and am saddened by his death.

My thoughts go out to his family, friends and comrades.

Guest Post: 7 True Battleground States for US President 2024

A guest post by John Stringer:

The US presidential election is on Nov 5 (6th NZ time) 2024. In a few recent posts, for people not that familiar with how the US election works, it was explained that candidates (Biden and Trump) compete for each State. People vote by State. If a candidate wins a State, they get that ‘grab bag’ of State votes, called Electoral College Votes. The number of State College votes is determined by population. CA has 54, Texas has 40, Delaware has 3, and so on. This is done for a particular reason, to give States parity in deciding their president. If you get 270 Electoral College Votes you become the US president. 

I’ve been tracking the averages of all polls in each State, for a while.  We have a number in every State that a candidate leads by now. There are other factors too, like mid-term elections (how well Republicans or Democrats did in any particular State) and previous election result winning margins (2016, 2020 and trends in earlier elections). States are Republican or Democrat and we can follow changes in demographics and trends). All these factored in, gives us a good steer.

In a recent post I explained there were SOLID States (a State in which Biden or Trump leads now by 12%+ points over their rival) and LEANING States (they lead by 6%+ points). This coloured the State map of America, Republican (Red) or Democrat (Blue) the reverse of how it is in NZ (Labour v National). This left ten blanks States, which I said would decide the presidential election. These ten States have 180 College votes up for grabs.

1.TEXAS  (40)

2. FLORIDA  (30)

3.OHIO (17)

4. Pennsylv (19)

5.GEORGIA  (16)

6.N. CAROL (16)

7.MICHIGAN (15)

8.ARIZONA (11)

9.WISCON. (10)

10.NEVADA (06)

Elect. Votes (180)

But already by late-May 2024 three of these 10 States were already very solid for one candidate over another (more like a SOLID State).

In Texas Trump leads by 12% points up from 8% on 1 May.

In Florida Trump leads by 9% points. 

In Ohio Trump leads by 10% points.  That’s 87 College votes to Trump.

Even if polls fluctuated a bit, these leads are expected to remain leads, and Trump will win these States on the numbers. Polls track trends and that has been the trend for some time.

7 Battleground States

That leaves perhaps seven States we might call the Battleground States, the results of which will likely determine the presidential race. All these seven States were decided in 2020 by less than 3% points. Some of them went to Trump in 2016 and some went to Biden in 2020. Some flipped, so they are true Decider States.

Hispanic and Black Voters.

In 2024 Trump is gaining big support amongst Hispanic voters (who have moved significantly right since 2020) and even amongst Black voters, which is bleeding across from Biden (on the economy and inflation). This is turning several Battleground States in Trump’s favour. The swing in Black votes is especially pronounced in Georgia one of the key seven. For example, a 5% shift in Georgia amongst Black voters would deliver a -1% loss to Biden in that State. In several cases, Biden’s support is down across States by double digit % points. He’s bleeding a lot in other words. And Trump is hoovering.

1/7 Georgia. Current polling shows Georgia is now Republican LEANING (Trump leads by 5.5%). 19 College votes.

2/7 North Carolina is also LEANING Republican. (Trump leads by 6.4%). 16 College votes.

3/7 Arizona is LEANING Republican (Trump is ahead by 4.3%). 11 College votes.

4/7 Michigan is LEANING Republican (Trump is ahead by 8% points). 15 College votes.

5/7 Wisconsin has Trump ahead by 1.6% in a poll 27 May. 10 College votes. Definitely a State to watch.

6/7 Pennsylvannia Trump leads by 1.6% points. 19 College votes.

7/7 Nevada is very interesting. Based on 32 polls, averaged, Trump leads in NV by 5.4%. 6 College Votes. I think this is the State to watch.  

The two debates, Trump’s trial verdict last week, Hunter Biden’s verdict this week, and Biden’s mental health will be big poll shifters, so anything could happen. But if the average of all polls, across all States, over the last several months holds true, then Trump wins by a big margin. Over 300 College votes. Some pollsters even have him over 400 which would be a rout.