A Government that believes in both public and private transport

Simeon Brown announced:

The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.

  • A fleet of 18 4-car units, totalling 72 cars.
  • Doubling of peak services on both lines and additional off-peak services.
  • 15-minute travel time savings for Kiwis commuting between Wellington and Masterton.
  • Increased speeds on the Wairarapa line from 90 kilometres per hour to 110 kilometres per hour.

That’s a good investment, and the doubling of peak services with faster speeds will be great for Wairarapa commuters.

You can donate your tax cuts back

Lots of the normal people on the left are complaining that the Government has adjusted the tax brackets to partially compensate for 14 years of inflation. The good news for them is they can donate them back to the Government. Just do a bank transfer to 03-0049-0000327-25 which is a Treasury bank account for receiving donations.

I wonder how many will do so?

McRaven would be a good choice for Harris

Media have reported that one of the people being vetted as a possible VP candidate for Kamala Harris is retired Admiral William McRaven.

Candidates not widely known to the public need to be able to have who they are summed up in a pithy sentence such as John Key being “Raised in state house by solo mum and became rich”.

For McRaven it is “Organised and oversaw the mission that killed Osama Bin Laden”.

He would add serious credibility and gravitas to the ticket in terms of foreign affairs and security. He also would be an excellent contrast to the isolationist politics for Trump and Vance.

His service includes:

  • Naval Special Warfare Unit One 
  • assault team leader for Seal Team Six
  • platoon commander at Underwater Demolition Team 21/SEAL Team Four
  • squadron commander at Naval Special Warfare Development Group
  • executive officer of SEAL Team ONE
  • task unit commander for Gulf War
  • commanding officer Seal Team Three
  • commanding officer of Naval Special Force Group ONE
  • deputy commander of Task Force 714 in Iraq against Al Qaeda
  • Commander of United States Special Operations Command
  • Organised and oversaw Operation Neptune Spear

He is no armchair warrior!

However more likely she will go with a Governor.

Why is a tweet from Clark news?

Stuff reports:

Former prime minister Helen Clark has criticised remarks made by NZ First leader Winston Peters in the House on Tuesday.

Peters was rebutting Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer about “ongoing colonisation” when he said it was “a retard comment”. …

Clark reposted a clip of the comment on social media, saying it was “Distressing to see this kind of language/attitude in NZ Parliament”.

Why is this a news story? Helen Clark tweets many times a day on various issues. She has not been Prime Minister for 16 years.

As to the substantive issue, I’m not clear whether Peters is being criticised for being inaccurate with his description, or for being insensitive with its use!

A small business failure

The Herald reports:

The first liquidator’s report on former Green MP Darleen Tana’s husband Christian Hoff-Nielsen’s bike business shows the company owed Inland Revenue and other creditors more than $400,000 at the time of its liquidation.

E Cycles NZ Limited, trading as Bikes and Beyond, went into liquidation on July 16. Hoff-Nielsen is the director and sole shareholder of the business, according to the Companies Register records.

This is no surprise. It seemed obvious from reports that the business struggled for many years. This in itself should not be held against the owner and directors. Many many small businesses struggle with cashflow and profitability. They have very few reserves and owners sometimes end up paying themselves salaries less than their staff.

However most owners do not underpay their staff and/or keep trading when the business isn’t solvent.

A journalist goes into the West Bank

This shows how massively difficult it will be to ever have peace as so many Palestinians support Hamas and oppose a two state solution.

Sadly a growing number of Israelis now also oppose a two state solution.

The problem is there is no real alternative.

Defining your opponent

This is the way by Erick-Woods Erickson

Read on Substack

This is a pretty effective ad to try and define your opponent. Harris, despite being VP, is not that well known in terms of issues. Of course all candidates say things in primaries that they then walk back, but with her becoming the candidate at such a late stage, there is a greater opportunity to define her.

Wellington rates skyrocket

The Post reports:

Many Wellington City home owners have received a nasty surprise after new rates costs came out with increases higher than the already-eye-watering planned increases.

My rates have gone up over $900 a year, or just over 20%. This is not due to more investment in water infrastructure. This is due to the Council spending over $300 million on renovating their own town hall, their massively expensive and unpopular golden mile project, the white elephant convention centre, the costly cycleways, $240 million to redevelop Civic Square, $400 million on a sludge transfer system etc etc.

Unhappy Pasifika Greens

The Pacifica Greens leadership have written an open letter. Extracts include:

For us, the treatment of Darleen has been deeply re-triggering, evoking once more our feelings of sheer helplessness, deep disappointment, and shame for the Party as we observed Professor Elizabeth Kerekere being subjected to a process that was reported as being mana-enhancing – yet was anything but.

In that case, the Co-Leaders manipulated the racist “angry brown woman hurting the fragile white woman” trope for the frenzied media coverage when in real time Elizabeth was routinely attacked and undermined by senior staff and some MPs during her term.

I think they are implying Chloe is the fragile white woman!

I spent a day with Elizabeth once she moved into her new Independent MP’s office and the immense relief from having to cope with the supposedly non-violent Green Party Caucus and Parliamentary Staff was palpable.

Seems such a happy place!

The Greens’ principle of Non-Violence in the Green Party Charter has been again and again contravened by women Green MPs who routinely heckle and yell in the House, who intimidate other MPs and who bullied two wāhine Māori MPs. Contrasting the treatment of Elizabeth and then Darleen with that of two other women MPs this year leads us to ask, “Will wahine Māori MPs who are perceived as a threat to the Co-Leaders’ comfort levels and ambitions always be an endangered species in the Green Party?”

A Green MP was filmed in Parliament being verbally abusive to and physically aggressive with another MP. How was that behaviour not a serious breach of our Charter? Why is that MP still in office?

They do have a point here.

We are culturally unsafe when the Co-Leaders, Pākehā or other Tauiwi MPs continually disregard and flout the principle of Non-Violence with no repercussions.

Ouch.

The $216 million nonsense

Radio NZ report:

The government has agreed to set aside $216 million it may need to pay for tax cuts for heated tobacco products (HTPs).

When I first heard this figure it seemed illogical as HTPs are such a minuscule part of the market.

She also said she did not expect the cost to the government to be “anywhere close to what was modelled”, as the tax collected on HTPs was only $3.62 million in 2022 and $5.97 million in 2023.

So the actual value of the tax change is $3 million, not $216 million. Yet the average reader or listener would think it is $216 million. How is that figure achieved?

Well prepare for nonsensical advice from officials.

But Health Ministry officials warned the minister against liberalising the regulation of HTPs, prior to the excise tax cut.

“There is no evidence to support their use as a quit smoking tool,” officials wrote to Costello. 

So they said that this won’t drive smokers from normal cigarettes to heated tobacco (which is less harmful).

The Cabinet paper said Health Ministry modelling suggested 7200 smokers could switch to HTPs over the next two years if encouraged by a cheaper price.

But here they say actually 7,200 smokers would switch to the less harmful HTPs.

So the $216 million figure is based on the scenario that the lower excise tax will actually lead to smokers switching to HTPs. So there would only be a loss of revenue if smokers switch to less harmful HTPs – which is the exact purpose of the trial!

So the official Ministry advice is that for policy purposes no smokers will switch to HTPs, but for fiscal purposes 7,200 smokers will switch to HTPs!

Useful research on Maori views on entertainment

NZ on Air commissioned some interesting and useful research on what type of entertainment Maori like to access, how, where etc. Having understanding of what a large segment of the population wants should be helpful in making funding decisions. Some interesting findings:”

  • 87% of Maori watch online video, 45% TV and 41% radio. Only 15% read newspapers
  • The most time is spent online gaming and streaming music
  • Of those who watch TV (around half), 58% watch TV1, 38% TV3 and 17% Whakaata Maori
  • Of those who watch streaming video, 79% are onNetflix, 29% Disney and 15% Amazon Prime
  • 22% of those who listen to radio listen to Mai FM, 12% National Radio and 11% NewstalkZB
  • The main reasons Maori watch video/TV is relaxing 52%, passing time 28%, background 22%. Reflecting Maori culture was 10th at 9% and last at 5% was because of use of te reo
  • Only 4% of Maori found shows fully in te reo appealing

Media deride parents of hostage

JI reports:

The Washington Post, which has been widely criticized for its coverage of the Israel-Hamas war, is under scrutiny again this week for publishing a news story on Thursday that appeared to criticize the parents of Israeli American hostage Omer Neutra for not discussing the suffering in Gaza, despite interviewing the mother and father and including comments in the story from them that the situation in Gaza is “horrible.”

The article, written by national correspondent Joanna Slater, details Ronen and Orna Neutra’s visit to Milwaukee to speak at the Republican National Convention on behalf of their son, who has been held hostage by Hamas since Oct. 7. The piece carries a sub-headline inaccurately describing Omer as “missing,” rather than being held in Gaza, before delving into his parents’ advocacy, which the story criticizes for a lack of focus on Palestinian suffering. 

“When the Neutras speak publicly, they don’t talk about the ferocity of Israel’s counterattack, which has killed more than 38,000 Palestinians and left nearly 90,000 injured, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Swaths of the territory have been pulverized and international experts have warned of looming famine,” the story reads, citing death toll figures from the GHM without including in the article or an editor’s note that the organization is a Hamas-run entity.

“What’s happening in Gaza is ‘horrible,’ Orna said, but Hamas could end it by releasing the hostages. Ronen echoed that sentiment: Hamas is ‘not only holding hostage our son, they’re also holding hostage the people of Gaza,’” it immediately continues, appearing to disprove the previous paragraph’s assertion that they don’t “they don’t talk about the ferocity of Israel’s counterattack.”

Bashing the parents of a hostage because they were not perceived to condemn the country trying to rescue their son is so tone deaf.

Ferries fine for many more years

1 News reports:

KiwiRail asked DNV to determine if the ships could operate for another five years, because that is enough time for “alternative solutions” and is realistic for the life expectancy of the ageing fleet. 

KiwiRail today released a summary of the DNV report – but not the full document – to 1News and other media following requests under the Official Information Act.

Roy said DNV submitted their report earlier this month and had found the ferries were in a better state than previously thought.

That meant the ferries could run reliably beyond 2026 with additional maintenance, according to the report.

“It found the three vessels have been well maintained. While the ferries are ageing, it has concluded it is possible to keep the three vessels running at least until 2029,“ Roy said.

The report found the hulls of the three vessels to be a particularly good condition for their age and Interislander said this was due to them not sailing in very heavy seas. …

DNV assessed the hull condition of the fleet as “good” and found the vessels had a low hull fatigue age, given all of them were built in the 1990s.

The ships’ actual ages in 2029 will range from 31 to 34 years old, but the projected hull ages will be 6.9 to 11.1 years old.

All the hysterical idiots who claimed we had no choice but to spend $3 billion+ on Labour’s mega ferries as the old ones were about to stop working should be very embarrassed.

The current ones are fine for at least the next five years with regular maintenance, calling the Government and Kiwirail to decide on replacements that won’t require billions in new port infrastructure.

The child poverty target changed because Labour failed miserably

Radio NZ reports:

In 2021 the government set targets of reducing the number of children experiencing material hardship from 13.3 down to 9 percent by 2023/24. The government’s new target for 2026/27 is 11 percent.

Yes Labour,. set a target, but were they on track to meet it?

Let’s look at the various targets announced over time for proportion of children in material hardship:

  • May 19: 10.3% by 20/21 and 6.0% by 27/28
  • Jun 21: 9.0% by 23/24
  • Jun 24: 11.0% by 26/27

But how did they actually do?

First thing to note is by far the largest drop occurred from 2012/13 to 2015/16 – a massive 6% in three years.

The rate was 13.3% when Labour in 2019 set a three year target of 10.3%. They got 11.0%, so got around 3/4 of the way to their goal.

In 2021 the rate was 11.5% and they set a goal for 2024 of 9% or a 2.5% reduction. They delivered a 1% increase by 2023 so you see why the target is now unachievable. This is what happens when inflation gets out of control.

Labour’s 10 years target was from 13.3% to 6% so a 0.73% reduction a year. After five years they delivered a 0.16% a year reduction or 0.8% after five years instead of the targeted 3.7%.

So National inherited a material hardship rate of 12.5% for 22/23 and likely even higher for 23/24, so a target of 11.0% by 26/27 is still a significant challenge which will require a reduction of 0.5% a year, which is six times more than what Labour achieved.


National spending more on health than Labour promised

As I blogged previously the problem is a botched centralisation project. Money should be spent on health services, not extra bureaucracy.

So has he kept his job?

A review by StatsNZ has found:

This review found that the employee’s responsibilities in relation to potential conflicts of interest
were made clear to him by the organisation, his managers, and leadership with a range of messages,
and through a number of channels well in advance of the event at Rātana Pā.

So having got up and insulted various Government Ministers, what consequences have there been?

On 24 January 2024, a delegation of four Stats NZ employees attended the Rātana celebrations at
Rātana Pā in an official capacity. The Rātana celebrations are widely attended by iwi, hapu and
Māori, the Crown, government officials and other stakeholders.

So taxpayers paid for him to attend, so he could insult the Government he is meant to work for.

Here’s some of what this senior public servant said, while being paid by taxpayers:

  • The government has three coalition partners, two of which are present and the third electing to stay in his constituency to lick his own arse
  • You only prioritise the few who voted you into Parliament
  • (To Shane Jones) you have now turned your back on the Māoridom

So again is he still in his job?

Hurdle on light rail

Tim Hurdle writes:

Building new rail networks is super expensive as the Auckland light rail debacle showed. The Australian ABC TV show Utopia has mined a rich vein of comedy explaining the realities of their boondoggles, such as “the Very Fast Train” between Melbourne and Sydney. Perhaps NZ On Air could fund a similar show so we could explore some of the projects that Kiwis mythologise.

That’s a great idea. Someone should apply to do that.

People also like to dream about inter-regional travel. Before rail, getting to Auckland took several days of rough sailing, because there was no State Highway 1. The end to viable regional rail services was signalled in 1968 with the arrival of the new Boeing 737. This fast and reliable aircraft made Wellington to Auckland a two-hour return journey.

Business travellers knew time was money. Patronage on any transportation system is determined by speed, comfort and convenience.

I did travel between Auckland and Wellington by train in my 20s a few times. But that was when I was studying, not working, and it was actually cheaper than flying.

Today I can’t justify 12 hours on a train when I can fly in one hour. I prefer train to flying but it isn;’t there on speed, convenience or cost.

But traditional traffic patterns are fading with flexible and digital working. Working continues through weekends. Physical deliveries and tradies use road networks enhanced by new technologies to improve their productivity.

Rail attracts the attention of dreamers and romantics. The practicality and expense of their ideas will leave them as arguments for blog posts, Twitter experts and smoko rooms. Dreams are free, concrete and steel are not.

I saw a mention somewhere that merely using Google Maps has made road networks significantly more effective. I often let it take me off the main route, as it says it will be faster.,

A guaranteed income experiment

Tyler Cowan writes on the findings, which are:

  • 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month unconditionally for three years
  • A control group of 2,000 participants receiving $50/ month
  • The transfer caused total individual income to fall by about $1,500/year relative to the control group, excluding the transfers.
  • The program resulted in a 2.0 percentage point decrease in labor market participation for participants and a 1.3-1.4 hour per week reduction in labor hours, with participants’ partners reducing their hours worked by a comparable amount.
  • The transfer generated the largest increases in time spent on leisure, as well as smaller increases in time spent in other activities such as transportation and finances.
  • We find no impact on quality of employment, and our confidence intervals can rule out even small improvements.
  • No significant effects on investments in human capital

Looks like Greens will waka jump Tana out of Parliament

Stuff reports:

The Green Party leadership has told former MP Darleen Tana their refusal to quit Parliament is “distorting“ the party’s representation in the House.

Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said on Sunday they had written to Tana about the issue and called a Special General Meeting of the party in September to discuss their response.

“Today, Marama Davidson and I wrote to Darleen Tana to inform them that it is our view that by resigning from the Green Party but refusing to resign from Parliament, they have acted in a way that has distorted, and is likely to continue to distort, the proportionality of political party representation in Parliament as determined at the last general election,” Swarbrick said.

The co-leader said they advised Tana they have 21 working days to respond to matters raised in the letter.

It looks almost certain they will use the waka jumping law to expel her from Parliament.

The letter they have sent is designed to comply with the law that states:

The statement must be in writing and signed by the parliamentary leader concerned, and must state that the parliamentary leader reasonably believes that the member of Parliament concerned has acted in a way that has distorted, and is likely to continue to distort, the proportionality of political party representation in Parliament as determined at the last general election

Further:

advising the member that he or she has 21 working days from the date of receiving the notice to respond to the matters raised in the notice by notice in writing addressed to the parliamentary leader

So 21 working days from Monday will be around 27 August. Then from that date the caucus can vote by two thirds majority to notify the Speaker that Tana be expelled.

Why countries shouldn’t own businesses

Radio NZ reports:

On a remote island in central Tonga, Glen Duncan needs the internet.

His resort in the Pacific Island nation’s Ha’apai islands couldn’t survive without a way to communicate with guests and monitor natural disaster warnings online.

And after one of Tonga’s undersea cables was broken late last month – possibly by an earthquake – it is Elon Musk’s Starlink internet keeping him connected.

It’s not the first time he’s relied on the service, after a volcanic eruption and tsunami cut off Tonga’s internet in 2022.

“Without Starlink, our business would have already failed,” Duncan said.

“We would have gone through many safety issues. It would be impossible for us to operate, absolutely impossible.”

So what is the problem?

But last week, the Tongan government moved to shut it down.

Starlink, which has been trying to gain a licence to operate permanently in Tonga, emailed customers to say the nation’s communications ministry had told it to disable services.

Why would a Government deprive its citizens of a vital service?

Some internet users criticise what they see as the government’s reluctance to allow Starlink in Tonga, arguing it is trying to protect its own state-owned telecommunications companies. …

And some regulators in Pacific Island countries warn Starlink users their equipment will be confiscated at the border if they attempt to bring it in.

The Governments own the local telco, and they prioritise protecting their revenue stream over allowing their residents to decide for themselves who provides the best service for the best price.

This is another good reason why Governments should not own businesses, except possibly when they are natural monopolies (and even then better to regulate them than own them).

Not much academic freedom at Massey

Go read the story of Dr Paul Crowhurst. The short version is:

  • Dr Crowhurst is a principal of an ethnically diverse school with a PhD in Education Leadership
  • Took up Adjunct Senior Lecturer in Education at Massey on a fixed term in 2021
  • Paul submitted an op-ed to Stuff on the new Unteach Racism initiative concerned about two aspects of the programme’s claims it makes concerning “unconscious bias”, and secondly, the traditional “Pakeha social structures” which, according to the new theory of racism, are necessary to maintain “white supremacy”.
  • Other Massey academics secretly complained about the op ed, saying it was horrific, deeply racist and made then unsafe. One even advocated reporting him to the Teaching Council for his daring to have an opinion on the issue. None ever approached him over their views.
  • Applied for a a permanent job as a Senior Lecturer in Education and was not even shortlisted
  • Was told he would not be needed in 2022

Now we all know this was not coincidence. It was the usual mob trying to stamp out views they disagree with.