$60 a week more to be on a benefit

Parliament Today reports:

The Income Tax (Universalisation of In-work Tax Credit) Amendment Bill was defeated at its first reading by 61 to 60 with National, ACT and United Future opposed.

This bill sought to make the “In Work’’ tax credit payable to those on benefits.

The Green Party, which sponsored the bill, put pressure on United Future MP Peter Dunne to back the bill to select committee. However Dunne said during the week the bill would remove a financial incentive for beneficiaries to work.

Labour. Greens. Mana and NZ First all voted for DPB beneficiaries to get an extra $60 a week for not working.

As Peter Dunne pointed out, it disincentivises beneficiaries to seek employment. The in work tax credit is designed to recognise that you have extra costs when working such as transport to work, clothing etc.

 

Electoral boundaries

I’m glad that in NZ electoral boundaries are drawn up by the Representation Commission, which is primarily neutral officials.

Thomas Lumley at Stats Chat notes:

 Article II, Section 16 of the Pennsylvania Constitution says that the Commonwealth’s 50 senatorial districts and 203 representative districts “shall be composed of compact and contiguous territory as nearly equal in population as practicable.” It also says that “Unless absolutely necessary, no county, city, incorporated town, borough township or ward shall be divided in forming either a senatorial or representative district.”   

Now after reading that have a look at District 7 and especially District 12!

Damien says Solid Energy to blame for Pike River!

NZ Herald reports:

Solid Energy is largely to blame for the “dumbing down” of mining industry standards that allowed the Pike River disaster to happen, West Coast-Tasman MP Damien O’Connor says.

So does that mean Qantas was responsible for Erebus?

Solid Energy’s general manager of communications Vicki Blyth said she was shocked by Mr O’Connor’s comments.

“It’s appalling to suggest that Solid Energy is in any way to blame for what happened at Pike River.”

Ms Blyth said Solid Energy had benchmarked itself against international best practice for some time. It had made submissions to the previous review of mining regulations.

“That’s what we submitted to the Royal Commission. We fully support the recommendations and the commission’s proposals.”

A somewhat bizarre attack on Solid Energy.

Against equality

The Herald reports:

The plan to introduce “charter schools” changed again yesterday after the policy’s champion, John Banks, said the schools would be under no obligation to accept students in their local areas.

I never thought they would be.

In response to a written question from Ms Delahunty, Act Party leader Mr Banks said charter schools would not have geographic enrolment zones if demand for places exceeded supply. Instead, students would be chosen by a ballot, he said.

The terms of reference for the working group set up to implement the introduction of charter, or partnership schools, says the first schools would serve “areas of significant disadvantage” where the risk of educational underachievement is the greatest.

You don’t need school zones to do that. If charter schools prove so popular that those set up in South Auckland are over-subscribed – then the answer is to set up more charter schools!

“The Government should just come out and admit and say we want to use public money to create schools where students can be cherrypicked at the expense of local communities.”

Quite the opposite. If charter schools are so popular that they are over-subscribed then they use random ballots.

Zoning is a form of cherry picking. Poor families can’t afford to live in zones of some of the more desirable schools. Random ballots will allow poor families to have an equal chance to a wealthy family of gaining a place as a popular charter school.

God knows why the Greens are against this.

Parliament 8th November

Questions for Oral Answer 2.00pm 3.00pm

Questions to Ministers.

  1. Hon DAMIEN O’CONNOR to the Prime Minister: Did Hon Kate Wilkinson have Ministerial responsibility for the departmental errors during her term as Minister of Labour which partially contributed to the deaths of 29 miners at Pike River?
  2. TODD McCLAY to the Minister of Finance: What steps is the Government taking to support jobs as part of its programme to build a more productive and competitive economy?
  3. RICHARD PROSSER to the Minister for Primary Industries:Does he have confidence in the Director-General of the Ministry for Primary Industries?
  4. Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Minister of Finance: What are the estimated costs to the taxpayer resulting from the Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading and Other Matters) Amendment Bill?
  5. JACINDA ARDERN to the Minister for Social Development:Does she stand by all her statements relating to the departure of the Ministry of Social Development Deputy Chief Executive, Janet Grossman?
  6. SIMON O’CONNOR to the Minister of Science and Innovation:How is the Government using science to address some of the biggest challenges facing New Zealand?
  7. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister of Transport: What assurances did Hon Steven Joyce give Snapper CEO Miki Szikszai in relation to Snapper’s participation in the Auckland integrated ticketing arrangement when they met on 3 March 2012?
  8. IAN McKELVIE to the Minister of Justice: What is the Government doing to further protect victims from their attackers?
  9. CLARE CURRAN to the Minister for Communications and Information Technology: What percentage of New Zealand homes did the Government commit in 2008 would be connected to Ultra Fast Broadband within 10 years?
  10. SHANE ARDERN to the Minister of Health: What progress is the Government making on improving the regulation of natural health products?
  11. KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Health: Does he regard the input and engagement of clinicians and the public to be critical to the achievement of his targets for DHB performance?
  12. TRACEY MARTIN to the Minister of Education: Is she satisfied with the way schools are funded?

Today there are four questions to ministers from National, four from Labour, two from the Greens and two from New Zealand First.

Labour is asking about Pike River and the Ministerial Responsibility relating to the tragedy, the departure of an Ministry of Social Development Deputy Chief Executive, Snapper’s participation in the Auckland integrated ticketing and the Ultra Fast Broadband roll out.  The Greens are asking about the Emissions Trading Scheme and DHB Performance. NZ First are asking about the Ministry for Primary Industries and school funding.

Patsy of the day goes to Shane Adern for Q.10  What progress is the Government making on improving the regulation of natural health products?

Government Bills 4.00pm to 6.00pm and 7.30pm to 10.00pm.

1. Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading and Other Matters) Amendment Bill. (Third Reading, Continued)

2. Advanced Technology Institute Bill.  (Second Reading)

3. State Sector and Public Finance Reform Bill.  (First Reading)

The Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading and Other Matters) Amendment Bill  is being guided through its Third Reading by Tim Groser. The aim of this Bill is to amend the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (the Act) to modify the emissions trading scheme (ETS), provide further regulation-making powers and to make “technical and operational changes.

The Advanced Technology Institute Bill was first introduced by Steven Joyce in September 2012. The aim of this Bill is to establish a new statutory Crown entity, the Advanced Technology Institute (ATI), with the purpose of supporting businesses, primarily in the manufacturing sector and services sector, to improve their competitiveness and growth through science and technology-based innovation and its commercialisation.

The State Sector and Public Finance Reform Billis being introduced for the first time by Jonathan Coleman. This bill amends the main statutes governing the management of the State sector and public finances in New Zealand.

How they voted

The CNN exit poll has some interesting breakdowns of how people voted:

  • Men Romney +7%
  • Women Obama +11%
  • Under 30s Obama +23%
  • Over 65s Romney +12%
  • Urban Obama +26%
  • Suburban Romney +2%
  • Rural Romney +20%
  • Whites Romney +20%
  • African-Americans Obama +86%
  • Latinos Obama +44%
  • Liberals Obama +74%
  • Moderates Obama +15%
  • Conservatives Romney +65%
  • Independents Romney +5%
  • Under $50k income Obama +22%
  • $50k to $100k income Romney +6%
  • Over $100k Romney +10%
  • Protestants Romney +15%
  • Catholics Obama +2%

The urban vs suburban split is quite fascinating. Also that Catholics backed Obama.

The value of fracking

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s multibillion-dollar energy industry will become uneconomic if fracking is banned from drilling operations, an industry report says.

Banning the controversial practice could potentially endanger the future of the lucrative sector, says the report, prepared by New Zealand-owned Todd Energy. …

Todd’s conclusions highlight the importance of the industry to New Zealand’s energy supply and coffers and raises the possibility of major oil and gas players walking away from uneconomic prospects.

The result of a three-month research project, the Todd report has been written as its submission to the PCE inquiry. Close to 180 pages long, it is the most comprehensive industry report into fracking published in New Zealand.

It says opposition to fracking in New Zealand is being based not on evidence, but on misinformation and emotion.

The 2010 movie Gasland, which received significant public attention, has also been comprehensively discredited, the report says.

It’s ironic that the Greens are so against fracking, as in the US it has helped reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

THE GOOD OIL

Contributes $2.2 billion to GDP every year

Provides more than 6000 jobs for Kiwis

Each worker produces about $525,000 in labour productivity, which is five times the national average

Estimates show the Government received $1b from the oil and gas sector in the 2009-10 year

Decisions should be based on science. My prediction is that regardless of what the PCE finds, the Greens will still insist on a moratorium (euphemism for a ban).

US election thoughts

President

Obama looks set to win Florida also (he is 50,000 votes in front) which will give him an electoral college margin of 332 to 206. That’s down from 365 votes in 2008, but still very healthy.  Bush in 2004 got 286, Clinton in 1996 got 379, Reagan in 1984 got 525, Nixon in 1972 got 520 and Eisenhower in 1956 got 457.

Vindication for Nate Silver at 538 who called all 50 (51) states correctly. But to be fair so did Pollster at Huffington Post and Real Clear Politics got all but Florida correct. So a good vindication for polling and science!

On the popular vote it is 50% to 48% for Obama. Again 538 pretty close to this (they had Obama 51%) and RCP spot on and Pollster a bit out at 48% to 47% for Obama. Again all well within margin of error.

Obama’s second term will be interesting. Now he no longer needs to be re-elected will he veer to the left, or govern from the centre?

Best tweet of the day was the person who suggested he should start his re-election speech with “Allahu Akbar” 🙂

Senate

A miserable day for the Republicans here. Two thirds of the Senate seats up for election were Democrats which meant the Republicans should have picked some up. They were hoping to get 54 seats or so this time, so in 2014 (when again two thirds are Democrats up for election) they could get a filibuster proof 60. That strategy is now dead.

The Dems and allies look to get 55 seats, up from 53. The lesson for the Republicans is not to elect candidates who will talk about rape in a way that would have been creepy even 100 years ago.

The polls were not so accurate for the Senate, as most were saying it would end up 533 to 47. However some seats are very close and may change.

House

The House is 232 to 192 with 14 races not called. In 2008 it was 242 to 193 so likely the Dems up slightly up – but the Republicans still with a solid majority.

The big challenge for Obama and Congress will be agreeing a Budget that doesn’t trigger the mandated across the board spending cuts in the Budget Control Act. However I can’t see the House agreeing to any tax increases (closing loopholes yes) so there could well be stalemate there as Dems and Obama will be most reluctant to do spending cuts only.

Wednesday Wallpaper | A Paddock & Some Clouds….

dramatic clouds over a summer field, near moeraki new zealand

Dramatic clouds over a summer field, somewhere near Moeraki, South Island New Zealand. Landscape photography by Todd Sisson

Welcome to the inaugural Wednesday Wallpaper US election special. What is the tenuous link between this image and today’s nail-shredding political deathmatch?  Like me while shooting this image, it will come down to the wire.  Sorry about that one – very ‘borderline’…..

2013 NZ Calendar

Some of you kiwiblog-kins may be interested in our 2013 Calendar ‘South‘, featuring 12 of our most popular images – it is available exclusively from the webstore.

Free Wallpaper Download

You may download the large version of today’s image from this link:  Password = freewallpaper

Also available on our website as a canvas print.

See you next week!

Cheers – Todd

[www.sisson.co.nz] [blog]

US Election Results

I’m a guest of the US Embassy this afternoon, so not sure how much blogging I’ll be able to do as we watch the results come in. So feel free to use this thread for updates and the like.

UPDATE: It’s 1540 and I am calling it for Obama and think he will get at least 300. I can not see anyway the lead in Ohio can be reversed.

Competing to be opposition leader

3 News reports:

Voters think Labour leader David Shearer is the most effective opposition leader, but only just.

A TV One opinion poll released on Monday night showed Mr Shearer favoured by 25 percent of respondents, with NZ First leader Winston Peters just behind him on 24 percent.

Green Party co-leader Russel Norman rated 18 percent and Mana’s Hone Harawira six percent.

The Green Party’s other co-leader, Metiria Turei, was on five percent while 10 percent of those questioned didn’t think any of them were effective.

Not a huge surprise that Peters is high. Few doubt his capacity to oppose. What should worry Labour is that 23% name one of the two Green co-leaders as the most effective opposition leader and 25% their own leader.

Keall on Dotcom and fibre

Chris Keall at NBR writes:

There are a number of reasons a Kim Dotcom-backed cable will never fly.

Pacific Fibre co-founder Rod Drury added another when he talked to NBR this morning: the accused pirate wouldn’t get approval to land the cable in the US.

Mr Drury saw Mr Dotcom’s overtures to Pacific Fibre as little more than clowning around on Twitter.

Amazing how one tweet gets so many stories. Keall notes:

Even at the height of Megaupload, Mr Dotcom didn’t have $US400 million to spare for a Sydney-Auckland-LA cable.

His Plan A is to fund the new cable through his revived file-sharing service, Megaupload – due to launch January 20, but its success is far from assured (the entrepreneur is asking for investors via a recently launched splash page).

His “plan B” proposal to fund the project by suing Hollywood studios is the stuff of fantasy.

And as for the parallel suggestion of crowdfunding … that’s a neat idea for a $ 1 million project. Not so much for one that costs half a billion.

Nice to see some critical analysis.

So what?

The Herald reports:

An assistant principal who posted racy photographs of herself on her Facebook profile faces a review by her school’s board of trustees after the images circulated among her students.

Kylie Fullerton, who teaches at Glen Eden Intermediate School in Auckland, is understood to have uploaded a photograph of herself in a red bikini and set it as her main Facebook profile picture.

So what? Lots of NZ women have photos of them in a bikini.

On the same profile the 34-year-old had details about where she worked and another photo of herself in high heels, black lace underwear and a white shirt.

So she had a couple of sexy shots. From the sound of it, they are miles away from indecent. Unless she is accepting friends requests from students on her FB page – I think a non-issue.

NZ media on reporting US politics

A senior journalist pointed out to me that after the first presidential debate, Radio New Zealand reported that Obama’s performance in the first debate was “disappointing”.

ABC in Australia used the more accurate and non-partisan description that it was “widely panned” because of course Obama’s performance was only disappointing if you were a supporter of his.

Language can be quite powerful, in the way it can reinforce impressions. The journalists who pointed it out to me said he is a believer in not using partisan adjectives in news reports. This is especially the case for state owned media.

And we even see this a bit today, with a Stuff story which says “Could Mitt Romney really steal the White House from Barack Obama today?” – I don’t think the use of language in this (otherwise good) story is a huge issue. But I do think that the use of language in reporting can be quite powerful in affecting views.

 

Balance?

Nikki Kaye wrote on FB:

I sat through the Vodafone music awards and listened as Homebrew and other labour politicians effectively endorsed calling John a variety of offensive things. It saddens me that there doesn’t appear to be equity in the way certain politicians are held to account on what they say.

This is a valid point. Compare the number of column centimeters that have appeared on  a jovial comment on a radio show, and on the bile that was spewed at Key at the Vodafone Music Awards and how two Labour MPs tweeted their adoration for the band that did it.

We can contrast the total non-coverage in New Zealand to a similar case in Australia.

A comedian said some offensive stuff about Tony Abbott and his Chief of Staff at a comedy show. Several Labor Ministers were in the audience. Now none of them tweeted stuff about how much they loved the comedian or adored them. They in fact said nothing at all.

However this became a major story in Australia, reported in every newspaper, purely because the Labor MPs present did not immediately condemn the remarks. They later did so, after Gillard did. It was deemed a story just on the basis they were there. It would have been many times worse for them if they had actually expressed admiration for the comedian who made the remarks.

So you have a huge disparity in media treatment – not just within New Zealand – but between Australia and New Zealand.

Now just imagine for a second if senior National MPs had been present at a show where highly offensive things were said about the Labour Party Leader. Also imagine if they tweeted how much they loved the person or persons who said them. Does anyone really think this would not have become a major news story?

The Tigers of Wrath

I’ve been looking forward to the Tigers of Wrath for a couple of months. The publicity blurb is:

Beijing, 1974 – Trish and Pauline are Maoists on a New Zealand Students’ Association trip to Red China. Also on the trip is Oliver, a radical would-be writer.

Twenty years later Trish is a second term labour MP, plotting the dumping of Labour Party leader, Mike Moore.

I was not disappointed. It was a great play. Political geeks especially will love the second act – but it will appeal to a wider audience.

You first see Neenah Dekkers-Reihana as a young Chinese revolutionary brandishing a wooden rifle. Then we’re in the bunkroom of Trish and Pauline.

Pauline and Trish are fighting as only comrades of the left can – over purity. Trish wants to see the Great Wall of China, but Pauline lectures here that they are not here as tourists – they are here to learn Maoism and spread the revolution.

It soon becomes clear Pauline and Trish are lovers, not just comrades. Heather O’Carroll plays the staunch Pauline and Kate Prior plays Trish.  After a flaming argument, Heather storms out and the long haired Oliver (played by Nathan Meister) enters to check if Trish is okay.

The resulting scene is comedy gold. Oliver ignores her demands to go away, and tries to make apparent that he also likes Trish. After commenting on how remarkable her eyes are, and being challenged by her on what he means by that, he says “They are beautiful like two street lights outside a brothel”. She spends many minutes ridiculing him on this, and Prior does a superb job of portraying Trish as playful and vulnerable. She reacts better to another of his cheesy lines and they eventually bond over discovering they both have the book Middlemarch as their favourite read.

Act II is 20 years later in 1994. Trish is now a Labour MP married to Oliver, a lawyer. Neenah plays their teenage daughter, and she adds great comedy value to the act. We see Trish plotting with a colleague on rolling Mike Moore to replace him with Helen. The dialogue is absolutely credible, the list of who will vote which way pretty spot on, and the critique of Moore hilarious. They had actual quotes from the past such as Lange saying Moore is a pinball machine designed by a colour blind person. Also a great quote of how Michael Cullen is the sort of person who enters a revolving door behind you and comes out in front.

The line that got the most laughs was after Trish’s phone call, when she goes back to asking Oliver if he is cheating on her. She calls him a sell out as he is no longer doing work helping migrants for free, but is now an immigration consultant. He responds by proclaiming “Well what the hell is the Labour MP for New Lynn doing living in Herne Bay”. Huge laughter from the audience, as most (including Labour MPs there) correctly concluded that that line was not necessarily directed at Trish!

Act III in 2009 sees Oliver run into Pauline in a Mangere pub. They have not seen each other in 35 years and this is the first time they appear on screen together. Finally she recognises him as the “cunt who stole my girlfriend”. I won’t give the rest of Act III away, but its a good finale to the play.

The actors all performed really well. Quite a challenge to portray the same character 20 and then 35 years later. But the use of wigs on Oliver and a nice corporate suit for Trish helps them do the job.

An interesting profile on playwright Dean Parker in the Listener. He says he never went to China himself as he was a Trot not a Maoist! He obviously has some good sources in Labour as Act II was all too believable.

A very enjoyable play with some great acting which is a must see for political geeks.

Theatreview liked the play also. It is on until 1 December.

Another silly gambling law

The Herald reports:

However, the Department of Internal Affairs warns that office sweepstake prize money cannot exceed $500 and those who breach the rules could face the long arm of the law.

This means tickets for the 24-horse race can cost no more than $20.83, according to a spokesman.

Any money raised must be returned as prizes and no one is allowed to profit from organising the sweepstake.

Violating these regulations could incur a fine of up to $1000. 

So a $21 dollar per horse sweepstake is illegal! DIA has no choice but to enforce the law, but it shows why we need wide-spread reform of our Victorian era gambling laws. The TAB should not have a sports betting monopoly for a start.

Little advocates huge increase in ACC costs

Vernon Small reports:

Labour ACC spokesman Andrew Little is urging his party to remove an “injustice” in the no-fault scheme by extending it to cover incapacity caused by illness or disease as well as accident.

First of all Andrew is correct that there is a disparity at the moment. If you are born disabled with only one leg, you get nothing from ACC. If you lose a leg in an accident you may get payments for life.

But his solution is massively expensive. It would lead to dramatic increases in ACC levies. It means that if (for example) someone was grossly obese and couldn’t work anymore due to their diabetes – they would get ACC payments based on their former salary for life. This would be far more costly than the Invalids Benefit.

Likewise as drug addiction is an illness, drug addicts would get ACC compensation rather than a benefit.

There is merit in looking at combining together the ACC and Welfare systems to remove the “injustice” but doing it by merely extending ACC to everyone with a temporary or permanent incapacity is likely to prove hugely expensive. It would mean a drop in take home pay for every employee and an increase in employer premiums.

He is also calling for it to dump the fully-funded model, which sets levies to cover the future cost of current injuries.

I’m against this also. Apart from the accounting argument, the benefit of having premiums reflect the full cost of current injuries is that it acts as a fiscal deterrent to widening coverage (as Labour did multiple times when last in Govt) because the premiums increase more under full funding (to reflect the full cost). It is all too easy under pay as you go to keep adding things into the scheme because the immediate impact on ACC finances is low. But the long-term impact can be quite massive. Basically full funding means that the Government is less likely to keep adding on extra costs to employees, employers, taxpayers and motorists who fund the scheme.

Data Angel

Stuff reports:

Vodafone says its customers will no longer be able to run up unexpected bills surfing the web or checking email on smartphones or computers when travelling overseas.

A new system, Data Angel, means its customers will be prompted to buy data when they switch on their phones or devices after arriving in a country. They will receive a warning once they have used 80 per cent of their allowance and will need to buy extra data in order to continue accessing the internet once that runs out.

That sounds a good system. One thing unclear though is whether you have to prepay for data which you may not use, or whether you can use it just to notify you of your data usage but on pay as you go?

Vodafone said the system was a “world first”. It has at the same time cut the cost of data for New Zealanders visiting Australia by 70 per cent to $15 for 100 megabytes.

Getting better. But $150 a gig still way too high. The real solution is having roaming rates say no more than double local rates.

Truth Interns wanted

Truth is looking for interns:

Are you a journalism/ media student facing a long summer break with nothing to do but mooch off mum and dad ?

We are looking for two interns to help out at the Truth over the summer break for a few days a week.

In return you will gain valuable  experience working for NZ’s last remaining Kiwi owned national weekly  newspaper.

We specifically want to help you gain experience with writing stories, sub-editing, circulation, ad sales, graphic design, PR, marketing and general production of the paper.

We can offer; A frantic, chaotic, noisy work environment that will provide you with a short sharp shock into the reality of actually  working for a living and may well end with you wanting to stay at UNI forever.

Highbrook, South Auckland location.

Expressions of interest to interns@truth.co.nz

I’m looking forward to the first issue on Thursday.