Key on Burma and East Asia Summit

An interesting interview with John Key by Audrey Young. Some extracts:

Who first suggested you visit Burma?

My trusty foreign policy adviser [Ben King] and it worked because of location – it is close to Cambodia – and because we as a Government genuinely do believe that the Myanmar [Burma] Government is making progress. I don’t think we are naive to that progress. We understand it is not all perfect. It’s a long way from perfection, but fairly much every country is recognising them now and taking sanctions off them and trying to encourage them. The other EAS leaders have been very strong in their personal views to me. Certainly [President Susilo Bambang] Yudhoyono of Indonesia and [Prime Minister] Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore have been very much of the view that [Burmese President] Thein Sein is quite genuine in his progress. …

You said in a press briefing with President Thein Sein that New Zealanders were passionate about human rights.

I care about people’s human rights and, as a country, we have a very proud record indeed. But I’m also realistic about what we can do … we can raise those issues with leaders and we can talk about those issues, and we do that. Moral persuasion over a period of time makes a difference, but we shouldn’t be naive to think that just because we raise it in a meeting it will make all those problems go away. It won’t and it doesn’t.

Can you have real democracy in Burma and still keep the ban on motorbikes?

You could if the voters had the chance to vote out the Government that had such a policy. But apparently the genesis of the ban was that one of the generals’ sons was killed on one so they just got rid of them.

Amazing. The madness of absolute power.

Do you think he’ll visit New Zealand as President?

My foreign policy adviser keeps reminding me to ask. I am not so confident. I hope so and he will probably come to Australia and he has obviously been before. He might. He really wants to. But the problem is that there just aren’t areas of disagreement. There’s obviously the anti-nuclear issue but that has been put behind us long ago. In a world that is so intense for him with so little … I know he personally wants to.

Ironically, you’re more likely to get a US visit if there is a dispute to help smooth over!

Was it a good trip?

I reckon really good. The thing about EAS is we got everything we wanted. We got the President saying let’s try and get a deal by the end of 2013. We said to him ‘do you want us to say this in the press because [if] you do, it will be reported and we’ll be held to account on it?’ and he said yes, absolutely. That doesn’t mean we’ll get a deal. There’s a lot of scepticism from those that aren’t involved in TPP. But he’s really serious about it. He thinks there aren’t that many levels for him to pull. It’s hard. They’ve got very low interest rates, they’re printing money, they’ve got big fiscal deficits. What things can he do to stimulate the economy? That’s one of them. It might fail but it won’t fail by want of trying.

My reading of this is the US needs the TPP more than NZ does. This doesn’t mean NZ should be unreasonable and try to screw the US over in negotiations. But it does mean that the NZ position on issues such as the proposed IP chapter shouldn’t be traded away.

Sky saves another channel

William Mace at the Dom Post reports:

Sky Television is to host a new public service channel on its airwaves after striking a deal with Stratos Television founder Jim Blackman.

The channel, Face TV, will beam local and international news and current affairs on Sky’s channel 89 from the beginning of February. …

Sky has given the channel spectrum to Blackman in order to make Face TV viable. He hoped regional broadcasters would see it as a complement to their operations.

He had not yet approached them to sign up to the channel, but his Auckland-based Triangle TV channel would be the basis for Face TV’s schedule.

Blackman said Face TV was different to Stratos and Triangle because it would have more of a public service focus, although the exact programming schedule was not yet decided.

“I believe it will have much more of a public service focus – we’re aiming to increase the amount of local news and current affairs we do, we want to involve the community and the regions more, and get a much more reflective view of broadcasting both in New Zealand and overseas,” he said.

I used to enjoy some of the Stratos content, so am looking forward to it.

 

Plunket on conspiracy theorists

Sean Plunket writes about the complaint to the Press Council (which I blogged about) that he and the Dom Post has to respond to, alleging the moon landings were fake. He notes:

Those who claim the 9/11 attacks were a neo-conservative plot to wrest control of the world’s oil supplies, that no plane ever crashed into the Pentagon and that the Twin Towers were brought down by controlled explosions are (in my honestly held opinion) at risk of being described as nutters.

They are the sort of people who believe fluoride in water is a global conspiracy when it’s actually designed to reduce tooth decay; that the Freemasons are an ancient order seeking global domination when they are actually secular apolitical community clubs like Rotary and Lions; that energy and car companies are deliberately hiding the existence of alternative engine technologies, when they are actually spending millions to develop them; and that our entire society is based on some intricate web of global conspiracy when it is actually just as chaotic, unpredictable and random as it has ever been.

Most conspiracy theorists I know (and I stress I have not met the Moon-landing complainant and so cannot speak to his motivations) are fundamentally unhappy people, often quite intelligent, for whom life has not worked out as they might have hoped.

I think this is very true. Both truthers and birthers for example are very unhappy people, in my observation. Yes, even Donald Trump.

A recreational function

Heh, I had to laugh at this quote from National MP Chris Auchinvole on the Marriage Bill:

National MP Chris Auchinvole said he understood the importance of pro-creation but could not see how gay marriage was a threat to that.

”Sexual activity is a recreational and emotional function as well as just procreation,” he said.

A very polite way of saying sex is damn enjoyable 🙂

Headline v story

The headline in Stuff:

High pay rates stay despite firm’s loss

Note the journalists doesn’t write the headline. Then the first para:

State-owned coal miner Solid Energy has more than a quarter of its staff earning double the average wage and a chief on $1.1m when the company made a loss of $40 million this year.

Solid Energy’s 2012 annual report shows it chief executive Don Elder was paid $1.1m in the year to June and weeks later announced he was axing the jobs of a quarter of the staff to save millions of dollars in costs.

So at first the impression is that despite Solid Energy losing money, the CE is unaffected or even getting a pay increase. But you then read:

Elder’s 2012 pay is $250,000 less than what he was paid the year before because he received less in performance payments.

Hmmn, so in fact the CE has taken a 20% cut in remuneration – not such a sexy headline though is it.

The board was prepared to pay him a short term performance payment of $164,350. That was only 40 per cent of what he could have earned in that category.

However Elder declined to take anything in that short term category.

And the CE voluntarily declined any short-term performance payment even though he met some of his objectives. A laudable decision, in light of the company’s struggles.

Elder told the board he wants to take a 10 per cent cut to his base pay in this 2013 financial year.

And he has voluntarily offered a cut in his base pay rate.

It’s good all this detail is in the story. It is just a pity that the headline didn’t reflect it with a more accurate headline such as “Solid Energy boss takes pay cut as company struggles”

RIP Bryce Courtenay

One of the world’s great novelists has died, aged 79. I have read everyone of Bryce Courtenay’s books (except the last). Like many I discovered him through The Power of One – a truly great novel.

His Australian trilogy were equally good, especially enjoying the New Zealand aspects to them. Mary Abacus is a fascinating character, and the story (and book) of Jessica is heart breaking.

Very sad we will get no more novels from him, but I predict his books will be read for decades to come.

New Lynn v Hipkins

The New Lynn Labour Electorate Committee have said:

Statement by the New Lynn Labour Electorate Committee

November 21, 2012

The New Lynn Electorate Committee of the Labour Party, at a special meeting called today, voted unanimously to express its full confidence in its Member of Parliament David Cunliffe. While acknowledging that this decision was within the prerogative of the party leader, the LEC noted David’s demotion with regret.

The LEC also resolved to raise with the New Zealand Council of the Labour Party concerns about recent public statements made by Labour’s Senior Whip, and the leaking of confidential caucus information by unnamed MPs following Tuesday’s emergency caucus meeting.

As these processes are now internal party matters we do not intend making further comment.

There is a lot of anger over those comments – more so than the demotion. A demotion can be reversed eventually. But having your Chief Whip call you “dishonest” and “disingenuous” are quotes that can never be shaken off.

Could he be a Mana Party member?

Sandra Cochie at NZ Herald reports:

A man who pointed a rifle at a policewoman in Katikati after telling her “we must eradicate all white people” has been jailed for four-and-half years.

He said it while pissed, but still rather concerning to have a combination of race hatred and firearms. Statements from MPs about white motherfuckers do have an impact on society.

Does anyone (ie GE or DG) know if presenting a firearm at a police officer is a strike offence?

The court was told that Flay had only recently been released from prison when he pointed the firearm at a Katikati police constable in Fairview Rd on July 24.

I wonder what the previous offences were for?

Help clean up Makara

Makara is one of my favourite parts of Wellington. I love the drive over to the rugged coastline, and can spend hours just enjoying the view from the cafe there. Incidentally it is a very good date location – you take them to Makara, get the superb ice creams at the cafe, play foosball on the near antique table and take in the view.

You can also hike up to the old gun emplacements and I’ve even done a Makara to Island Bay weekend tramp on a couple of occasions around the bays.

Anyway Sustainable Coastlines and Meridian are having aa clean up of Makara Beach tomorrow (Sat 24).

This spectacular piece of coastline is well looked after by locals everywhere with public access, but the area is heavily affected by a regular flow of waste from fisheries in the Tasman Sea, the Whanganui River and Marlborough mussel farms.

The rugged terrain of Meridian’s West Wind Farm, usually closed to the public, will be opened-up for this special one-day event, marking Meridian’s commitment to work with the entire community look after their local stretch of coastline. This will give volunteers the opportunity to experience remarkable views next to the enormous windmills and areas like Te Ikaamaru Bay –
which is so stacked with rubbish that those who are familiar call it ‘plastic beach’.

Volunteers are invited to join the clean-up crew for a fantastic day out exploring the area and give something back to the beautiful Makara coastline.

Meet at the Sustainable Coastlines display container on Makara Beach at 10am, Saturday 24 November to sign-in and collect equipment.
From Makara participants will split into teams and head out along the coastline on foot and by 4WD to clean-up the area from Makara Beach around to Ohau Bay. Free lunch will be provided from 1pm at Makara Beach with the support of Meridian Energy, whose staff will be mucking-in to cleanup too.

Find out more and register online at www.sustainablecoastlines.org

I’m in Dunedin otherwise I’d absolutely be there. A great way to make a difference to a special part of Wellington. I just ove the views from there. If you have some time available on Saturday consider helping out.

Dom Post on Transmission Gully

The Dom Post editorial:

Ninety-three years after the idea of constructing an alternative route out of the capital was first mooted in the Evening Post, Transmission Gully is within touching distance.

The Cabinet has given the NZ Transport Agency permission to borrow the funds needed to build and operate the highway using a public-private partnership. Construction is scheduled to begin in 2014 and to finish in 2020.

Once the road is built, freight and people will move in and out of the capital more smoothly, motorists will no longer be subject to long delays or be brought to a complete halt by a single accident blocking the existing coastal highway. Most importantly, the prospect of Wellington being cut off from the rest of the North Island by a major natural disaster will be reduced.

The delays when there is an accident are just insane – a key weakness of having just one route north.

Even without crashes, Transmission Gully should see commute times reduce by 20 minutes a day for the average motorist.

If you don’t do Transmission Gully you would need to make major changes to the existing SH1, but that process is widely thought to be impossible to get consent approval for, as it would affect so many people.

 

Labour is promising a new house every 13 minutes of the working week!

I previously blogged on how Labour’s Lotto Housing policy, where they will effectively allocate their subsidised houses by random lotto type draws.

But sadly for those who like Lotto and were hoping to win a taxpayer subsidized house, their numbers are looking very dodgy.

Now bear in mind when I say their numbers are dodgy, they have not provided many numbers. Merely that they will do 100,000 Lotto houses for $1.5 billion of net capital. They have given no details on how much land they would need, no detailed budget etc. It’s the sort of policy you dream up in desperation the week before a conference.

But they have given us one concrete figure. The Government will build 10,000 new houses a year. Now let’s break that down.

10,000 houses a year is 192 houses a week. Now if you take the working week of 40 hours, that is 4.8 houses per hour. That is a new house every 13 minutes of the working week.

Hands up those who think the Government can build a new house every 13 minutes? If your hand is up, please keep it up and please join the queue for free trips to the North Pole to see Santa Claus.

But even if you think the Government can build a new house every 13 minutes, also consider the impact on building costs. Labour often forget or ignore basic economics such as increased demand pushes prices up. Trying to build 10,000 houses a year, on top of the existing building programme and on top of the Canterbury rebuild will see huge inflation in the construction sector. The costs of labour and materials will inevitable increase. And that means of course taxpayers get let with the bill for cost over-runs on 100,000 houses. Imagine how much more money we’ll be boring offshore to pay for it!

State property costs

Jonathan Coleman announced:

State Services Minister Dr Jonathan Coleman says a new Public Service property strategy is likely to reduce the office space foot print in Wellington by the equivalent of three Reserve Bank buildings.

Dr Coleman says Cabinet has approved the start of a centralised negotiation for future public service office space in the capital with accommodation leases due to expire for five large government agencies.

The leases due to expire include the Ministries of Social Development, Health, Education and Business Innovation and Employment, and the Crown Law Office.

The Property Management Centre of Expertise based within the Ministry of Social Development has been delegated to lead the negotiation for the accommodation needs. …

A business case presented to Cabinet indicated a reduction of the office footprint in Wellington of 30 per cent will save $338 million over 20 years, which is a 20 per cent reduction in cost compared with the status quo baseline.

Sounds good to me. If that achieve that, there are benefits beyond the direct savings. The ever increasing size of the public sector in the 2000s saw office rental costs in Wellington CBD skyrocket. This imposed significant costs on private businesses. Having reduced demand from the public sector should see smaller increases in rental prices for commercial tenants.

Australia objects to 129 new TLDs

Stuff reports:

Australia’s government is lodging more warnings than any other government in the world against top level domain name applications, reinforcing its reputation as an over-regulator of the internet.

Out of 243 “early warnings” against domain applications, the Australian government lodged 129 – more than half.

The period of evaluation for applications for top-level domains began after Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) launched the new generic category in June.

Most of the objections are against generic terms, such as .food, .tennis or .books, where giving one company exclusive use of the domain would “exclude potential competitors” and allow that company to dominate the market.

129 objections is ridicolous. The Australian Govt is often regulation heavy when it comes to the Internet. Having said that there are legitimate issues with some applications such as do you let Amazon get .books which is a generic term?

Having said that, I note Amazon got famous as amazon.com and I don’t even know if there is a site called books.com – so a name is not as important as what you do with it.

However, the Department of Broadband Communications and the Digital Economy (DBCDE) also objected to domains ending in fail, gripe, sucks and wtf (short for what the f–k?) because they are “overtly negative or critical connotation’. The government is concerned these domains could be used to damage individuals or organisations, for example www.labor.sucks or www.liberal.sucks, and force organisations into buying the website to avoid embarrassment.

Now that is just silly. People could get liberalsucks.com at the moment anyway.

Australia has a history of strict internet naming regulations, according Ms Carlsson. It is one of the only countries will only allow someone to purchase a .com.au domain if the name relates to their trading name, for example. In recent years Minister for Broadband Communications and the Digital Economy Stephen Conroy has been criticised for his proposal to introduce an internet filter.

By contrast co.nz has no restrictions on who can register there.

Duncan Garner

Had a fun night Wed night at farewell drinks for 3 News Political Editor Duncan Garner. Somewhat unfortunately I had an early flight to Dunedin Thu morning!

Duncan started in Parliament around a year before I did, in 1995. He was an intern for One News, and Linda Clark was his boss. Linda was at the function and spoke very fondly of Duncan, and how she feels part of the Garner family, especially as Duncan’s father would call her up on a regular basis to see how he was going. In turn Duncan credits Linda for teaching him so well.

When Duncan started at Parliament, he had a large female fan club. A certain young ACT activist (who I shall not name, but she now has a popular blog) was founder and president of his fan club. Her crush on him bordered on the obsessional 🙂

Back in the 1990s, National had some legendary caucus parties twice a year . I know, as I used to organise many of them. Sadly these have almost disappeared, which is a pity. People need to unwind.

There is a very well known story (and yes I have Duncan’s permission to retell it) about Duncan at one of these parties. A number of us observed he was getting on very well with an attractive ministerial staffer whom we will call C. At some stage after midnight they disappeared. The party wound down around 4 am.

Anyway around 9 am the next morning C turned up to the Research Unit, lifted up the back of her top and proclaimed “Look what Duncan did to me”. Her back looked like it had been flayed by a Roman centurion. In fact it was carpet burns from umm activities on the floor of her Minister’s office. It seems they couldn’t even wait to get to someone’s home! Even more amusing was being told how when they left the office, they discovered the parliamentary cleaners patiently waiting outside to clean the office.

Now of course an occasion like this is too good not to hassle a mate, so I called his extension. His boss Linda Clark answered and said he wasn’t in yet. I said I’d ring back later. Linda asked if she could help (in case it was some political story I had for them). I said nah it wasn’t political, I was just ringing Duncan to hassle him. Linda without pause immediately exclaimed “What was her name David”. I laughed at Linda’s perceptiveness but refused to say or give any details. But being interrogated by Linda is like surviving the Spanish Inquisition, and on her fifth demand I relented and just said “Just tell Duncan he gave the poor girl carpet burns”. Linda shrieked with delight and hung up.

She must have done some detective work and found out C’s name. And then around 10 am Duncan staggered into the gallery. Now bear in mind he had only parted company with C a few hours earlier so you can feel for him to have Linda bellow down the corridor so the whole gallery can hear “Duncan Garner, you gave that poor girl C carpet burns over her entire back”. Duncan is stunned at how Linda could know this just hours after the event.

Linda’s protection of sources doesn’t extend to dishing dirt on Duncan, so later that day Duncan was very grumpy with me, and right up until the farewell was referring to me being to blame! My defence was Linda forced it out of me (plus no way it was going to stay a secret as a dozen people had seen the carpet burns).

Duncan was also well known for his suits, to the extent that even the President of the United States complimented him on them. His drinking ability has also been described by Michelle Hewitson.

But it is unfair to Duncan to portray him as a party boy. Over his 15 years in Parliament, he became an incredibly talented journalist and political editor.  He broke major stories on John Tamihere’s golden handshake, the Kees Keizer secret tapes and many more, picking up awards on the way.

Duncan, and his padawan Paddy Gower, both are hard hitters. They go hard on National and they go hard with Labour. I recall people in National slating Duncan over the Kees Keizer tapes, and then people in Labour doing the same over his revelations about the ABC faction. Duncan is one of those journalists for which I have absolutely no idea how he would vote in an election – if he votes at all. That is a good thing.

He understands Parliament very well – that it is a place of both policy and politics. He showed on The Nation that he can do policy well also.  The gallery will be the worse for losing him, but not bad to get out after 17 years and not yet be 40!

A number of people spoke at his farewell, including Gerry Brownlee. We heard a very funny story of how Duncan and Gerry were once out in town together, and someone came up to Gerry and called him Jonathan Hunt 🙂

Duncan has always enjoyed the blogs. He’s resisted the urge to jump into the comments himself, but would often call me and say “Wow, so and so is not a fan of me are they”. He knew his style had fans and critics, but never let it get to him.

So thanks for the good times Duncan. You’re a good bloke, and hopefully you can get Radio Live listeners into double figures!

 

A public health service

Some of you may have noticed that Stuff recently decided to mix in the content from their staff (who have spent four years getting a degree and journalism school) with content from, well anyone at all. Now the only thing that distinguished an article from a 30 year veteran of the Dom Post and a story from an 18 year old about how when they were 13 a boy turned them down for a date is the little Stuff Nation logo.

They have the “best” of Stuff Nation proudly displayed near the top of their home page. Another recent highlight is how a mother hopes her 16 year old daughter will date her best friend when they are older.

Now of course we should all learn just not to click on the links. But the headlines are often tempting. So you click away, and then the neurones in your brain disintegrate as you read a few lines.

Anyway someone on Twitter pointed out that you can protect your health by deleting Stuff Nation from your Stuff homepage. Just click on the pencil icon for the Stuff Nation section and click on the word “Remove” which comes up.

Now this is not a total vaccination as Stuff have embedded some Stuff Nation content in their other sections. But it does help.

Maybe a smart reader can design some plugin which will delete every Stuff Nation article from appearing anywhere on the website? I think it would be popular!

Turnbull pledges no challenge to Abbott

This video is quite amusing. Polls in Australia show that voters wants Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull to lead their respective parties. An audience member notes that both are successful, very wealthy, and popular (except with their colleagues) and urges them to set up their own political party. Turnbull says he is committed to the Liberals. Rudd jokes that he and Malcolm could never agree on the leadership 🙂

The Australian reports:

The former Liberal leader is making it clear there will be no challenge for the leadership before the next election and that his aim is to be a senior, influential member of the Coalition cabinet should Tony Abbott win government, The Australian reports.

After months of co-operation between the former opposition leader and the man who replaced him after the party division over the carbon emissions trading scheme in 2009, a new stability and certainty is emerging within the senior Coalition ranks.

As Labor uses Mr Turnbull’s standing with voters to try to drive a wedge into the Liberals, Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull have been in “close and regular personal contact” co-ordinating how to handle the prickly political issues of Mr Abbott’s defeat of Mr Turnbull as Liberal leader, Mr Turnbull’s continuing popular appeal, policy differences over carbon pricing and Julia Gillard’s campaign against Mr Abbott. …

There’s a lesson here for some parties in NZ.  Abbott did not get spooked by Tunrbull’s popularity and authorise a whispering campaign against him. He talked to him on a regular basis to make sure he was confident he had a key role to play going forward.

NZ First wanting Muldoon rent freeze

NZ First have said:

New Zealand First says more evidence of rent gouging has emerged with a Christchurch family with nine young children landed with a rent increase of $100 a week to take their weekly rental from $460 to $560.

Nine young children?? I won’t even try and work out how much WFF they get!

Anyway we don’t know how many bedrooms their current house is but there are 16 properties currently on Trade Me that are at least five bedrooms for under $500 a week. And if you have three kids a room (they are young kids) then there are 72 four bedroom or higher properties for under $500 a week.

Christchurch Earthquake Issues spokesperson Denis O’Rourke says this vindicates repeated calls from New Zealand First for a short term rent freeze in the city.

No it doesn’t. A rent freeze did not work for Muldoon, and the fact some landlords increase their rents doesn’t mean you need price controls.

The economic policy of a Labour/Green/NZ First Government looks more and more to be wedded to the 1970s.

Rents have increased in Christchurch, but in some parts they have dropped according to the official stats:

A number of suburbs across greater Christchurch, particularly on the outside of the city centre, continue to show increases in average weekly rents of 20% or more. Russley, Hawthornden, Yaldhurst, West Melton, Halswell West, Halswell South and Kennedys Bush have all shown large increases for the three months ending October 2012 compared to the same period the previous year.

Meanwhile some suburbs in city fringe areas continue to show decreases in average weekly rents of 10% or greater. Ilam, Riccarton and Westburn have all shown large rent decreases.

And if you bring in a rent freeze, you will discourage new houses being built (which is the sustainble solution).

In Canterbury consents were issued for 396 new dwellings in September 2012, up 80% from September 2011. This is the highest number of consents issued in Canterbury since September 2007.

Yes it is tough if your rent goes up. But the solution proposed by NZ First will make things worse.

Snedden on Chinese visas

I blogged last Friday on the beatup over so called skipping or border checks for South China Airlines frequent flyers, and that in fact there was no relaxation of any border checks at all. The only thing that had happened was that customers could use their frequent flyer status as proof of not being poor, rather than a bank statement.

Martin Snedden of the Tourism Industry Association writes in the Herald on this issue:

Although citizens of 57 different countries who want to holiday in New Zealand can turn up at our airports and be issued with on-the-spot visas, Chinese visitors cannot. Immigration NZ has assessed the risk of criminal activity or absconding as being too high. But this risk attaches to only a very small number of Chinese visitors, so Immigration NZ is continually looking to adjust its screening processes to ease the way for visitors who fit within a high-value, low-risk profile.

A key point again – 57 countries are visa free. A check against criminal activity applies to all visitors, so really the issue is we require visas for people from countries where we are concerned they will try and remain in NZ illegally due to our higher standard of living. Hence why they need to prove they have $1,000 of funds for every month they plan to be here.

These visitors still have to meet criteria much more stringent than for most visitors. On arrival, they are still subject to the same border security processes as every other arriving passenger.

Yep the only difference is no bank statement required.

The profile of these Pearl cardholders is seasoned international travellers, generally in sound economic health, with strong ties to their homeland, and who, in the course of their international travels, will have successfully passed through many visa and security processes.

Exactly. To get frequent flyer status they are individuals with considerable funds and a history of travelling without problems.

This China Southern initiative should not be stand-alone. The principles of this agreement can, and should, be applied in a number of other high value, low risk target areas.

We benefit massively from people visiting New Zealand and spending money here. I’m all for expanding the agreement to other airlines.

Some in this country will always see something sinister in anything to do with China, but those of us in tourism are congratulating Immigration Minister Nathan Guy and Immigration NZ on this positive decision.

Xenophobia is what fueled this story, planted by NZ First.

Winners and Losers

A couple of blogs have posts on who they see as the winners and losers on Labour’s factional warfare.

Eddie at The Standard says:

Winners

  • John Key
  • Russel Norman
  • Andrew Little

Losers

  • The Left (and NZ)
  • Grant Robertson
  • David Shearer

Winners in the long run

  • The Labour membership
  • David Cunliffe

Doesn’t sounds like it is all over, as Shearer has been trying to insist today.

Bomber at Tumeke blogs:

Winners

  • Mainstream media
  • The Blogs
  • Emotional violence
  • Labour’s old guard
  • The unions & Labour’s membership
  • Mana & Greens

Losers

  • The left of the Labour Party
  • Democracy
  • David Shearer

Bomber also looks at three scenarios:

  • Shearer the King – rated a very low probability
  • Cunliffe the Challenger – a certainty if Shearer trips up in the next 3 months
  • Robertson/Ardern ticket – the only person who walks out of this factional fighting stronger is Robertson

Also iPredict has a look at the trading on the Labour stocks, and the timing of buys and sells.