No this isn’t a post on Graham Capill. It is back on the issue of cats. A reader e-mailed to say:

If Gareth Morgan had done anything sensible, like say putting “removing apex predators” in scholar.google.com, he would have found that it is well understood that removing a species such as cats (apex predator) from an ecosystem causes an explosion of smaller predators (meso predators).   In NZ that would be all the Mustelidae (Weasals, Stoats, Ferrets) and Rats.  It would also lead to an explosion in the numbers of mice who compete for food and possibly an increase in Hedgehogs (who also predate our birds).   Here’s an example of what he might have found http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01347.x/full   He could also have talked to some actual NZ ecologists, but hey.

Sci Blogs have had some good balanced posts on this also.

The NZ Herald editorial:

The reaction of motor industry lobbyists suggests the Government’s changes to the warrant of fitness system are as radical as they are ill-considered. Far from it. The new rules are the least extreme of the options that were considered, and remain more stringent than those in many comparable countries. They also represent a reasonable balance between safety, the prime consideration, and cost savings. In sum, the Government has acted appropriately in responding to the great improvements in vehicle safety since six-monthly inspections were introduced in the 1930s.

It is a good point that the rules actually remain more stringent than most countries.

Change, however, is necessary. There is no reason New Zealand motorists should have to endure more frequent warrant of fitness checks than their counterparts overseas. Once, in the days of high import costs, this country’s car fleet was noticeably aged and, therefore, more prone to defects that could result in serious accidents. But two things have happened. First, our fleet now bears a far greater resemblance to those overseas in terms of age. Second, cars have become far more reliable. Frequent inspections are not a panacea. The number of accidents linked to vehicle faults here is the same as in other countries at about 2.5 per cent – or 0.5 per cent where they are the only cause. Liquor and speed are far greater factors.

This is the key point. Our problems are that NZ roads are generally pretty crappy and people driving too fast for the conditions. The accident rate due to car defects is extremely low.

John Key has announced:

Prime Minister John Key has announced the election of National’s new whips following the National Party Caucus this morning.

Mr Key says the new senior whip will be MP for Taupo, Louise Upston.

Louise Upston has been promoted to senior whip from junior whip after Mr Key announced last week that Michael Woodhouse will be a Minister outside Cabinet.

The new junior whip will be MP for Hamilton West, Tim Macindoe.

MP for Botany, Jami-Lee Ross, has also been appointed to the newly-created position of third whip.

The Remuneration Authority determined in its annual review last year that political parties with more than 45 MPs will have funding for a third whip.

Being a whip is pretty demanding job. A whip has to be in the House almost all the time, as they are the ones who have to make sure leave is not granted to any delaying tactic from the opposition (such as I seek leave for a 10 hour debate on the price of milk). If you don’t object within a few seconds, then bang the House has so resolved. They also allocate speakers to bills, grant leave to MPs who want to attend engagements during House sitting hours, and generally manage caucus discipline.

The senior whip almost invariably goes on to become a Minister in due course. I can’t recall the last time a National Senior Whip did not become a Minister.

Labour MP Chris Hipkins blogged yesterday:

Just before Christmas the Remuneration Authority released their determination regarding MPs pay. Naturally, all of the media focus was on the fact that MPs were getting a pay rise just before Christmas and it was to be back-dated. Personally I agree with the idea that MPs pay and entitlements should be set on a 3 yearly basis and changes should only come into force following each election, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Pleased to see Chris supports pay and entitlements being set that way. I’d advocated that position for a long time, and hopefully the Select Committee will recommend it when they report back on the MPs Remuneration Bill.

Hidden away in the determination was another interesting little change. Political parties with more than 45 MPs are now entitled to a second junior whip position. So with Michael Woodhouse taking on a ministerial role, and Louise Upston almost certain to step in the Chief Whip’s shoes tomorrow, National will now have to elect two new junior whips. The smart money seems to be on Tim McIndoe and my Breakfast TV sparring partner Jamie Lee-Ross.

Smart money indeed.

I agree with the decision to increase the number of whips big parties can have. It’s a big job and under MMP it’s getting even bigger. But it’s interesting the National government decided to implement the change now, rather than wait until after the next election, when it wouldn’t look quite so much like they were changing the rules to suit their own interests.

Chris is being a bit mischievous here. The Remuneration Authority decided, not the Government, that a party with over 45 MPs needs a third whip and will fund it. we’re not talking a huge amount of money by the way – a whip get $14,100 more than a normal MP.

Of course a party could appoint as many whips as they want. They just won’t get paid extra, unless the Remuneration Authority agrees there is a need. In fact in the early 1990s National had a third whip because their caucus was so large.

This is like that the Greens don’t get two leaders’ salaries. I presume they split the extra pay between the two of them. So it is up to each party to work out what they need, but the Remuneration Authority decides the level at which you get extra funding for such roles.  So the current rules are:

• 1 to 3 MPs: No whip
• 4 to 24 MPs: One whip
• 25 to 44 MPs: Two whips
• 45+ MPs: Three whips

Brian Edwards writes:

Shearer’s media image remains a problem. The blame for that must lie in part with bad advice.

Faced with criticism of his seemingly ineffectual leadership Shearer was advised to talk and act tough. He clearly took that advice.  His essential message to the November conference was: I’m running the show, I make the decisions, I’m in charge. That was the talkingtough component. His subsequent interviews were notable for the number of times he said ‘I, me, my’, a  self-conscious attempt to reassert his personal dominance of the party. …

 Shearer is still doing most of the talking about himself, still involved in the  first-person defence and praise of his own leadership: ‘I, me my…’  And there it was again in his State of the Nation speech: ‘I can tell you that today I’m refreshed. I’m fired up and I’m raring to go.

The somewhat curious thing is that the lines, delivered with almost evangelical fervour, weren’t spontaneous; they were scripted, there word for word in his speech notes. But they  cannot disguise the fact that Shearer should not have to ‘tell’ his audience that he’s fired up and raring to go, that it should have been obvious not just on this occasion, but since the day he was elected leader. It hasn’t.

There s some truth to what Edwards say, that you say things to try and convince people of things – and they are not always true. I use the example of any country that puts democratic in its official name is invariably a totalitarian state. If they are obviously democratic, they don’t need to say so.

The simple fact is that Shearer isn’t comfortable in the ’talk and act tough’ role. The best demonstration of this was in his response to the media scrum after Cunliffe had been dismembered in Caucus. He was a stumbling, bumbling, incoherent wreck. I suspect he was deeply upset by the lynch-mob mentality and the savagery that had dominated the previous hour. He eventually walked off, refusing to answer any more journalists’ questions.

Shearer is a reasonable man, a conciliator by nature. He has to stop trying so hard to be something he isn’t. He can’t carry it off and we will see through it. He is a poor actor.

This week John Key gave him  a lesson in strength. He sacked two under-performing ministers, in all probability ending their parliamentary careers. Yet he’s taken little or no flack for what seems like a pretty brutal thing to do. Maybe that’s because he didn’t act the strong leader, didn’t say much about it at all, was matter-of-fact about a necessary decision.  Maybe that’s the lesson.

It is a worthwhile lesson.

The Dom Post editorial:

 Making promises is a politician’s stock-in-trade. Unfortunately, delivering on those pledges is often not as easy as voters have been led to believe.

There are few policy areas in which that is more true than housing affordability, where there has long been a disconnect between grand promises and brutal reality.

It was therefore unwise for Labour leader David Shearer to allow those struggling to save for their first home to get overly optimistic about his promise to build 100,000 new dwellings in 10 years at an average sale price of $300,000. That would simply not be possible in many parts of Auckland, at least not for the sort of houses, complete with sizeable gardens and lawns, most of the present generation of first-home buyers grew up in.

Mr Shearer has now made clear that many of the 40,000 to 50,000 homes Labour plans to build in the city will be apartments or terraced housing. The same will probably also be true in Wellington, where $300,000 would be an unrealistic price for anything other than a small apartment or a terraced townhouse on a meagre section.

Their policy should be called Affordable Flats not Affordable Houses, or at one person suggested – Affordable Rooms 🙂

Amy Adams has announced:

Communications and Information Technology Minister Amy Adams has today released a proposal from New Zealand Post seeking to allow greater flexibility in the postal services it provides.

“During the last 10 years mail volumes have dropped considerably, with 265 million fewer items being posted each year compared to 2002. Within five years, mail volumes are forecast to be nearly half what they were in 2002,” Ms Adams says.

“In light of those significant reductions in mail volume, New Zealand Post is seeking to make changes to the Universal Service Obligations it is bound by.

“New Zealand Post has advised me that it considers changes are needed to ensure a sustainable postal service in the 21st century.

The changes sought are here:

The main details are:

• Going from 5 to 6 day a week delivery to 99.88% of NZ addresses to 3 days a week 99.88% of addresses.
• Going from 1 to 4 days a week delivery for 0.12% of addresses to 1 day a week for 0.12% of addresses.

I support this change, for two reasons. The first is that NZ Post will simply become unprofitable without them. I don’t want taxpayers subsidising postal deliveries. There are far better things to spend money on.

The other is that for most people, an extra day wait for mail will have no impact. Hell I only clear my letterbox around once a week. Most important communications come electronically or if not practical and time critical by courier. I can’t recall anything I’ve had posted to me that would suffer from a day’s extra wait.

Those in extreme rural areas may find it tough with getting mail once a week only – but that is all that some of them are getting at present anyway.

The Dom Post looks at the year ahead with, such as:hat they see as the challenges for each party.

NZ FIRST

• Put further distance between it and its former MP Brendan Horan, who looks set to ride out the scandal surrounding money from his dying mother’s estate.
• Reposition itself as a true cross-bench party by seeking opportunities to work with National as well as Labour.

MAORI PARTY

• Do a better selling job of its gains in Government – including Whanau Ora and its advocacy on tobacco control.
• Patch up the tensions between co-leaders Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples.

MANA

• Use initiatives like Hone Harawira’s food in schools bill to broaden the party’s appeal beyond that of a Maori Party.

• Cement the Mana Party’s place as a natural partner to Labour and the Green Party in government.

Yep, I like the idea of the natural partner for Labour and Greens being Mana.

They also look at some unfinished business:

The auditor-general’s investigation into Labour MP Shane Jones over a visa granted to a former Chinese national: David Shearer’s likely promotion of Mr Jones back to his front bench suggests he is not expecting any fallout.

Novopay: Fourth-ranked Cabinet minister Steven Joyce has been put in charge of fixing the shambolic school-pay system.

David Bain compensation: It was back to the drawing board after Justice Minister Judith Collins threw out a report suggesting Mr Bain was innocent of murdering his family and deserved compensation.

Constitutional review: Launched at the instigation of the Maori Party, it has disappeared without trace – and could be overshadowed by a parallel Maori-led review.

I must have missed this parallel Maori-led review?

Stuff reports:

Pinot Noir is the standout variety on the wine scene, with exports of the drink made from black Vitis vinifera grapes doubling in the last decade.

The red wine is big business to New Zealand.

The value of pinot noir sold to overseas drinkers hit $122 million last year, up from only $19m a decade ago.

It is the second most popular variety after our star sauvignon blanc, with pinot noir vines planted on more than a million more hectares than chardonnay.

A four-day festival dedicated to the tipple was launched on Wellington’s waterfront yesterday, with 500 people attending. Pinot Noir NZ 2013 spokesman Robert Brewer said the industry in New Zealand had evolved since the first three-yearly event in 2001.

I was very lucky to be a guest of Visa at the Pinot Noir festival last night. They had dozens of different Pinot Noirs flowing on demand. I couldn’t even attempt to try them all, but did sample a fair few. My favourite was the 2007 Grasshopper which sadly ran out it was so popular.

As if dozens of great wines wasn’t enough, they had 12 of Wellington’s best chefs there including Logan Brown, Martin Bosley and Ruth Pretty. Scallops, lamb, salmon etc. I think I undid a fortnight of exercise in one night – but it was worth it 🙂

Putting aside my personal enjoyment, the NZ wine industry success with Pinot Noir is a great story. 500% export growth over a decade is superb and I’ve noted when overseas how often NZ wine is offered in restaurants as a premium wine.

Marc Greenhill at Stuff reports:

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has rejected suggestions he ignored officials’ advice in making reduced offers to uninsured red-zoners.

The Press reported yesterday the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera) advised Brownlee last August that property owners in the residential red zone who did not qualify for the initial Crown compensation deal – mainly commercial properties and undeveloped land – should have the same offer extended to them.

A decision was made to offer those in limbo half the rateable value (RV) of their land and avoid the “moral hazard” of a government safety net for the uninsured.

I think it would have been very bad to offer the same price for an uninsured property as for those insured. It would have set an awful precedent and encourage people not to insure.

Labour earthquake recovery spokeswoman Lianne Dalziel said the “low-ball” offers would form part of a formal complaint she had made to the auditor-general about the Government’s handling of the residential red zone.

Labour – campaigning for the rights of the uninsured to get the same payouts as the insured. That’s true equality for you comrades!

When I was at the Gallup site, there was quite a few interesting polls on issues. This is their Roe v Wade graph over time.

Not a lot of change for 25 years of heat. Of course this is not the same as asking views on abortion laws, as you can be pro-choice and think Roe v Wade was a very bad judicial decision (as I do). But they ask on specifics:

• Abortion legal under any circumstances 28%
• Abortion illegal in all circumstances 18%
• Abortion legal under certain circumstances 52%

So in fact only 18% of Americans think abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. And while I am pro-choice I’m not sure even I would quite tick the  box legal under any circumstance as I would not support an eight month abortion unless the mother’s survival was an issue. Most Americans are actually in the fairly sensible middle.

So how about when abortions can happen. the results are:

• 1st trimester 61% say should be legal
• 2nd trimester 27% say should be legal
• 3rd trimester 14% say should be legal

I’d be interested in seeing a similar question in NZ. The results might not be vastly different. I can’t imagine a huge number of people would say they support third trimester abortions. I note the official NZ stats indicate only 5% occur after the first trimester and that after 20 weeks, they will only occur if necessary to save life or stop serious permanent injury.

The point I’m trying to make is that while the issue is very political and volatile in the US, I’m not sure the overall opinion on legality is vastly different from NZ.

Finally they ask US respondents if they would call themselves pro-choice or pro-life and it is 48% pro-choice and 44% pro-life. What is interesting is the demographic differences of those who say they are pro-choice. They are:

• No religion – 80% pro-choice
• Democrat – 63%
• Income > $75k – 58%
• Under 30 – 54%
• Women 50%
• Men 47%
• Catholics 48%
• Republicans 28%

The small difference between men and women is unexpected (for me).

Brian Rudman looks at the Auckland Council Register of Pecuniary Interests:

As clubs go, perhaps the most unusual was Howick Local Board deputy chairwoman Lucy Schwaner’s revelation that she is a member of the Fingerprint Society.

Ha, I bet she enjoyed having to disclose that. Everyone will be like WTF?

 Though understandable given her day job as a forensic analyst for the police.

Understandable, but still pretty cool. The Society’s website is here.

Alanah Eriksen at NZ Herald reports:

An East Coast man on the dole for 25 years is the longest unemployment beneficiary in the country and has been paid more than $260,000 in taxpayer money.

Others on a list of the top 10 have all been receiving the payments for more than 15 years, according to information released to the Herald from Work and Income New Zealand.

The single man started on the unemployment benefit when he was 37 and is now aged 62.

This almost certainly will end once the welfare reforms are fully implemented. That is outrageous.

Vernon Small at Stuff writes:

Labour’s David Shearer may not have been smooth, but he was genuine and a man of substance.

So the spin went last year when he was struggling to sound fluent during speeches and impromptu press interviews. He was, if you like, substance over style. But his address to party faithful yesterday – not a “state of the nation” speech exactly, but a scene-setter for the year – was the exact reverse.

And on the style:

These days Mr Shearer is taking no chances on the presentation front, even using an autocue when talking to about 170 party faithful in a Wainuiomata rugby clubroom.

You are kidding? An autocue to talk to the Labour Party summer school in rugby clubrooms? I knew Labour always look to US and UK politics for their campaign  ideas, but this is ridiculous.

Of course party leaders will use autocues for major events, such as the campaign launch and close, and annual conference speeches. But I have never ever heard of an autocue being used at an event like the Young Labour Summer School.

Bad enough that an international newspaper does a beatup on New Zealand milk, but then a local newspaper does a front page story proclaiming the world is asking is NZ milk safe to drink.

The key fact in all this comes at the very bottom of the story:

Muller said that a 60kg person would have to drink more than 130 litres of raw milk or consume some 60kg of milk powder to reach the limit for an acceptable daily intake, and considerably more to have any health effects from DCD.

“Clearly, this would never happen.”

If you drank 130 litres of milk in a day, the DCD would be the least of your worries.

The average person would not drink even a litre a day. So the less sexy but more useful reporting would be that the level of DCD is less than 1% of the level allowed or acceptable. People can understand how insignificant a level this is, if you express it like that.

The irony is that DCD is used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Whale Oil is rightfully very critical of the journalist who used the term toxic, as many things can be toxic at a high enough level. Coffee can be.

T

This graph is from Stats Chat. It’s amazing how much views have changed over 50 years. In 1958 only 4% of Americans approved on interracial marriage. That implies both a majority of white and black Americians were against interracial marriage.

The poll is from 2011, but I was fascinated enough by the chart to look up the source data. As Stats Chat pointed out, still a bit alarming 14% don’t approve of interracial marriage, but what I found interesting was the breakdown of the approval rate by age. It was:

• Under 30s 97%
• 30 to 50 91%
• 50 to 64 88%
• Over 65s 66%

So almost one in three Americans aged over 65 disapprove of interracial marriage. Very interesting when you consider the opposition in NZ to same sex marriage is primarily (but of course not exclusively) over 65s.

Kirsty Johnston at Stuff reports:

A teenager opposed to gay marriage has accused select committee members of behaving in a hostile and “menacing” way to submitters who are against a proposed law change for same-sex couples. …

In a press release sent to the Sunday Star-Times, McCoskrie said 18-year-old Grace Carroll was left humiliated, disappointed and frustrated by the experience – and she’s not the only person to have complained.

However, the committee members say all submitters were treated with respect – even if they did roll their eyes at the girl when she began to quote civil rights activist Martin Luther King Jr …

Her oral submission is online here. I think it is great an 18 year old takes the time to submit and appear, and this should be encouraged. It is unfortunate she felt she did not get a fair go. However I would make the point that the more provocative the submission, the more of a response you tend to get.

Her appendices are well argued (thought I disagree on the fundamental point that marriage was created by the law of nature and is untouchable).

She said in the middle of her speech, acting chair Chris Auchinvole got up to get a drink, and when she finished her speech with the words of Martin Luther King Jr, Hague was “unsavoury and menacing” to her, calling her homophobic.

“The whole experience was very strange. There was a lack of common courtesy and respect,” she said.

Auchinvole said it was common for committee members to get drinks and go to the toilet during submissions as long as a quorum was maintained and that Carroll had already made a written submission to which she was speaking.

I’ve had MPs grab a drink during my submissions. It means they are thirsty.

Jane Clifton writes:

The grandest, steepest ladder in this upheaval which to its ascender feels a lot like a snake, is that extended to outgoing Primary Industries Minister David Carter, who, to make room for the Cabinet “refresh”, has been frogmarched toward the Speaker’s chair.

It is no secret that David enjoyed being a Minister, and especially Primary Industries. And he was well liked and respected in that portfolio. So a few have joked that the traditional (from the days when an angry King might execute a Speaker) reluctance the nominee is expected to show will not be feigned 🙂

It also pays well and ends in a knighthood or damehood if one isn’t a republican. But though several Nats – notably colourful old-timers Maurice Williamson and Tau Henare – would practically auction their grannies for the job, and in Williamson’s case probably do a cracking job, it’s an ill-kept secret that Carter’s first love is primary industries.

I think Maurice has the skills, humour and knowledge to be a good Speaker. However the decision is obviously linked to Cabinet renewal also.

But that is not to say that I think David Carter won’t do well. I recall that many people were skeptical of how Lockwood would do as Speaker, and Lockie was been simply outstanding. In one sense, Lockwood has made it harder for his successors.

He’s also not one of those MPs who has a particular fondness or feeling for Parliament as the endearingly idiosyncratic institution it is. A Speaker needs to be fast on his or her feet, and demonstrably even-handed. Carter is affable, but has always been sharply partisan.

I have to rarely disagree with Jane here. I don’t think David is sharply partisan. Certainly not within 100 miles of Jonathan Hunt and Margaret Wilson.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is specially resistant to the Carter speakership, which, given Winston’s genius for parliamentry disruption, is a combustible state of affairs.

Well that is because he sued Carter for defamation and failed. I don’t see why that should be held against Carter. Peters was no fan of Lockwood also – nursing a grudge because Lockwood beat him for the Kaipara nomination in 1983 or 1984.

Claire Trevett at NZ Herald reports:

Labour leader David Shearer has conceded his party’s affordable housing policy will only be able to deliver small apartments or terraced housing in Auckland for the $300,000 price tag – while standalone family homes are more likely to cost up to $550,000.

This is what critics have been saying for months. The idea that you can wave a wand and build a home on a section for under $300,000 is a con.

This week seems the ministerial reshuffle implemented, and it will be a tough week for many MPs and staff affected.

On the staffing front, you may be unaware that parliamentary staff lose their jobs if their Minister is demoted. But you also lose your job if your MP is promoted to be a Minister (as different employers). Also if your party loses an election you lose your job but also if your party wins an election you lose your job! Some get rehired, of course. But there are few jobs where you can learn at one hour’s notice you no longer have a job – no consultation, no notice, no appeal. As I say often, don’t choose to work at Parliament if you want stability.

It is of course equally tough for the Ministers involved. I know MPs are not the most beloved of creatures (even though most people like the local ones they actually know), but again not the most stable of jobs where you can learn with an hour’s notice you lose your job as a Minister, let alone everything that goes with the job.

Most MPs are pretty sympathetic to those who get demoted, but Hone Harawira was particularly ungracious with his comments on Phil Heatley:

Yesterday, Mr Harawira said on National Radio’s Morning Report that the sacking of Mr Heatley would be a welcome relief for low-income families.

He said Mr Heatley presided over policies which make it harder to access affordable housing and called him a smarmy p**** who put poor people down by making jokes about them.

Mr Heatley wasn’t too concerned about the insult, but said poverty was no laughing matter.

“Local people who know me and who know Hone are quite capable of making their own judgment on our respective characters,” the Whangarei MP said. “That aside, I take welfare policy seriously. Poverty is no joking matter.”

Phil’s one of the nicest guys around, in fact. And the way he (and Kate) has taken the demotion is totally absent any rancour or bitterness:

Mr Heatley’s demotion took everybody by surprise and the MP heard he was to be dropped only that morning.

He said he would now be able to put more time into issues affecting Northland and would be pushing for better infrastructure, including road and rail, better broadband coverage and speeds, electricity supply security and economic development.

Mr Heatley said he would be working closely with Northland MP Mike Sabin to help address those issues.

I have no doubt Phil and Kate are bitterly disappointed. You’d be inhuman not to be. But the way they both have taken the decision speaks volumes about their characters.

Green MP Gareth Hughes blogs:

BusinessDesk said today, “Onshore Taranaki oil explorer TAG Oil is planning more than 130 new onshore wells, with 13 to be drilled in 2013 and consents sought for platforms from which another 120 could eventually be drilled.”

Not all wells will necessarily be fracked, but you can be certain that fracking technology has made the building of these wells economically viable.

That’s great news, and a superb endorsement of fracking. Without it those well would not be viable and we’d have to import more oil from the Middle East, and have fewer jobs and lower tax revenues in NZ.

Simon Bridges has announced:

Changes to New Zealand’s warrant of fitness system, which will see annual inspections for cars registered after 2000, will save motorists time and money and will also focus on road safety, says Associate Transport Minister Simon Bridges.

The key changes to the warrant of fitness system (WoF) include:

• An initial inspection for new cars, followed by annual inspections once  vehicles are three years old

• Annual inspections for vehicles three years and older and first registered on or after 1 January 2000

• Six-monthly inspections for vehicles first registered before 1 January 2000

Excellent. I find the six month WOF checks on relatively new cars a silly hassle and a waste of time and money.

The Motor Trade Assn will of course be unhappy, because they own a chain of testing stations. But mechanical defects are implicated in only 2.5% of vehicle crashes and are the sole cause in only 0.4% – experts have said the impact on safety will be minimal.

Ministry of Transport research shows that the package of changes will benefit motorists and businesses by $159 million a year, and by at least $1.8 billion over 30 years.  This includes savings in inspection and compliance costs, justice and enforcement costs, and time spent by motorists getting their WoF.

Mr Bridges says these savings will have a flow-on benefit for the wider economy.

The MTA have also said there will be 2,000 jobs lost due to this decision. Now of course that is a nonsense figure, but even if it was true their argument is flawed. The purpose of WOF checks is not to create jobs for garages, If that was the purpose, we’d have monthly WOF checks.

An economy does better when people get to voluntarily choose what they spend their money on. The annual saving of $160 million will benefit other areas of the economy.

The debate should be about balancing risk and cost.  I think this new regime is a far better balance than the old one.

The AA (which unlike the MTA has no commercial interests involved in the decision) has pointed out:

New Zealand has the most frequent vehicle safety inspection in the world. No other country requires cars aged 6 years or older (most of our fleet) to be tested twice a year.

Some countries have an annual inspection, and many only every two years. Others, like much of Australia and the United States, have no regular inspection at all.

Most vehicles in New Zealand are tested every 6000km. In Britain they’re tested every 19,000km, and in Germany vehicles travel about 32,000km between inspections.

Yet despite these differences in inspection frequency the number of crashes caused by vehicle faults in New Zealand is about the same as other countries at about 2.5 per cent – or less than half a per cent where it is the sole cause.

This suggests that inspection frequency is not a silver bullet.

The question is, can we have a less-frequent test without increasing crash rates, and the international evidence suggests we can.

This is a good example of the Government acting in the public interest, and refusing to bow to a scare campaign by vested interests. We need more decisions like this.

His speech is here. Some extracts:

The hands-off, simply leave it to the market approach has failed all over the world.

We are on the cusp of a new era – when new thinking and leadership is needed to build wealth we can all share in.

The world has changed. National hasn’t. It’s stuck in the past.

We need a government that recognises times have changed.

We need a Government that finds the courage to act, not better excuses for why we can’t.

We need a government prepared to stand up for hardworking forgotten Kiwis.

We need a smart, hands-on Government. 

As opposed to a stupid hands-on Government?

As I blogged a few days ago, hands on and hands off are labels which mean little in today’s world. The current Government is intervening all over the place in an attempt to help foster stronger economic growth.

What the focus should be on is the details of what each party proposes as inteventions, not stupid slogans from the 70s.

It’s about getting our priorities right, being thrifty about our economy.

Bringing our debt under control.

Which is why Labour has criticised every single spending cut of the last four years.

We’ll make changes to monetary policy so that our job-creating businesses aren’t undermined by our exchange rate.

A more subtle version of the Greens pledge to print more money.

I’ve spoken of a clean, green, clever economy many times.

The focus groups must like that phase.

Not a single specific new initiative. Just a recital of last year’s announcements and a new slogan about hands-on vs hands-off.