In Parliament today:

Chris Hipkins: … but I am concerned about students’ safety from being in classrooms with unqualified, unregistered teachers …

Hon Nikki Kaye: Is the member saying that children in early childhood centres are unsafe? Is that what the member is saying? Is that what he’s saying to every single child in an early childhood centre.

CHRIS HIPKINS: Yes.

Go read the full transcript but Chris Hipkins clearly says he believes early childhood centres are unsafe because they also can have unregistered teachers.

Is there no end to the scaremongering?

What is especially appalling is to make such claims when we’ve just had the case in Northland of dozens of kids abused by a registered teacher.

Hipkins would have you believe that charter schools will be staffed with pedophiles who have been sacked from state schools. Nonsense. The law allows them to negotiate a proportion of their teachers to be unregistered with the Ministry of Education – if there is a good reason for doing so. There will be the odd exceptional person who can be of great value who may not be a registered teacher. I expect once charter schools are up and running, the number of unregistered teachers will be very low.

Also worth recalling that organisations such as Teach for America send tens of thousands of top graduates into schools in low income communities to help inspire and improve learning outcomes. Their graduates are basically all “unregistered” yet many studies have shown they achieve better results.

Anyway back to the main point – Labour is telling parents that their kids are unsafe at early childhood centres. What horrific deplorable scaremongering.

As I previously blogged my previous laptop was near death and I had decided that it was time to go back to the Mac, and buy an Apple MacBook Air.

However despite walking into the local Apple store with my credit card ready to buy a Macbook Air, I walked out without one. Here’s why.

Any change of operating system will be a challenge, but I was prepared to make the change in order to get a lovely Mac. But I had one major thing I needed to check, which is how my existing work documents would work on a Mac.

Over the last decade I have set up templates in Access, Excel and Word which save me hours of work every night. Some of them have taken scores and scores of hours to set up, but they now mean I can copy and paste data in and get dozens of pages of tables and graphs near-automatically.

So what I just wanted to do was check how some of my existing files and templates would work on a Mac, using Office for Mac. In theory they should be okay, but I couldn’t risk not actually checking as if they did alter the templates it could means weeks of work for me.

So I headed down to the local specialist Apple store, Yoobee, with a few files on a memory stick. I found a nice Macbook Air, and couldn’t wait to buy it. I just needed to check out how my files would work on it.

I asked the assistant if I could check my files on one of their Macs. He replied that they do not have Office for Mac installed on any of their computers. In fact they didn’t even have a copy anywhere in the store. I was somewhat staggered that they would not have a single copy of MS Office in the store, considering that there are around one billion users of it world-wide.

But I didn’t give up. I was aware that you can runs Macs in emulation mode, where they can run Windows within the Mac. This would allow you to run MS Office for Windows on the Mac if necessary. Not my preference as I’d prefer not to have to be using it in dual use mode, but I wanted to see how easy it was to do.

But again Yoobee told me that I couldn’t even see how a Mac works in emulation mode, as none of them have a copy of Windows installed – and there was none in the office.

Again I was somewhat staggered. Surely they want to attract people over from buying Windows laptops, and being able to demonstrate you could still run Windows programs on a Mac would be a major part of that.

I started to consider maybe I’d just buy a Mac and not use emulation mode at all, and use native Mac programs. But I knew there was no MS Access for the Mac, so I asked about Filemaker Pro. I could recall using it many years ago, and wanted to check how its functionality compared to Access.

But for a third time I was out of luck. They didn’t even have a copy of Filemaker Pro in the store, for me to try out.

I came to the conclusion that Yoobee had no interest at all in winning people over from Windows to Mac. They were set up only to sell Macs to people who had already decided to buy a Mac, and only had to decide which model to buy. Because they didn’t have any of the basics right, I walked out of the store with no purchase despite being 98% keen to purchase when I walked in.

This is no criticism of the staff, who were very helpful. They don’t decide what software is kept in store. I’m not sure who owns the store, but as I said they seemed set up only to sell to people who are already Mac users – which is ignoring 80% of the market.

Maybe I would have been better going to a general computer store, rather than the specialist Apple one.

Anyway the end result was that I didn’t get a Mac, and headed down the road to get a very nice new Sony Vaio S Series 13 P. Maybe I’ll end up going to a Mac in three or four years time when I next need a new laptop. But only if I can find a store that actually is set up to win people over.

There was just no way I was going to risk 10 years of my business by making a leap in the dark to a new computer system, when I have not been able to test it for compatibility.

A very dignified farewell speech from Aaron Gilmore. I tweeted that it was the political equivalent of a cock tease – led to expect fireworks, and you get a farewell hug 🙂

Someone else tweeted that if he had made the first half of that speech last week, he may never have had to make the second half.

Claire Trevett at NZ Herald reports:

Broadcaster Shane Taurima is considering a move into politics and has spoken to the Labour Party about running in the Ikaroa Rawhiti byelection next month.

Mr Taurima confirmed he had been approached about standing and was considering it, but was yet to make up his mind.

“It is a huge decision.” He is expected to raise it with his bosses at TVNZ this week.

He was promoted this year to head TVNZ’s Maori & Pacific Programming after working as a journalist and presenter on programmes including Te Karere, Marae and Q+A.

TVNZ seems to be a good recruiting pool for the Labour Party!

Slate looks at energy storage. Why might we need energy storage in future:

California enacted a renewable portfolio standard in 2002 that ordered all utilities in the state to get a third of their electricity from wind, solar, or hydropower by 2020. Twenty-eight other states and the District of Columbia have similar requirements. But as states ramp up their use of renewables, they’ll run into a problem nobody at the lectern talked about: energy storage.

Wind turbines and solar panels produce energy intermittently, often when the grid doesn’t need it. Much of the energy they make has to be put somewhere until demand rises. The energy storage solution now most commonly used is pumped-storage hydropower: Facilities send water up a hill when the grid is producing excess power, store the water behind a dam, then release it through a turbine when demand rises. But the system requires a lot of water, and water tends to be scarce where sun and wind are abundant. What’s more, all the good spots with the right topography in the United States are already taken.

So what is needed:

The ideal energy storage solution would have five qualities: It would put a lot of energy in a small space; it would be inexpensive; it would lose in transfer less than a fifth of the energy put into storage and taken back out; it would last decades; and it would release the energy quickly. The optimal energy storage technology would also be safe to transport and non-toxic to dispose of, as well as made of raw materials that can be obtained without causing major environmental damage.

We have compressed air:

Compressed air works like this: Electricity drives a pump to pack air into a tank. As the molecules become more densely packed, they heat up. The heat is later converted back into electricity. The problem is that transfer is inefficient. Danielle Fong, co-founder of a Berkeley company called LightSail Energy, told Wired.com last year she’s invented a system that can get the efficiency up to 70 percent. (Randy Howard, LADWP director of power system planning and development, would like to see efficiency of between 85 and 90 percent.) Her prototype has impressed even investors skeptical of clean tech and attracted a fresh $37 million round of financing in November.

And flywheels:

Flywheels convert electricity to kinetic energy and back. Certain kinds can be up to 85 percent efficient, and they can run for decades with very little maintenance. But flywheel systems are expensive, becoming cost-effective only over a 20-to-30-year time horizon. Temporal Power, of Ontario, Canada, claims it has a technology that reduces energy losses; its first megawatt-size project is just getting off the ground.

But the real innovative solution:

Jim Kelly thinks he has the energy storage solution. In his 38 years in various R&D and engineering executive positions at Southern California Edison, Kelly built several pumped-storage hydropower facilities. Next month, on a ranch in the Tehachapi Mountains owned by one of the founders of the wind energy industry, Kelly’s company, Advanced Rail Energy Storage, will begin testing a variation on pumped hydro. Except instead of dams, channels, and water, Kelly’s new system has rail yards, train tracks, and electric locomotives hauling boxcars full of gravel.

These heavy-haul trains, borrowed from mining applications, use the same software as computerized trains at many airports. A motor hooked up to an electric third rail draws electricity from the grid to push the trains up a 7 to 8 percent slope; at the top, the energy is stored as potential energy. When the grid needs the watts back, the software allows the trains to run downhill at about 35 miles per hour, “releasing energy all the way,” Kelly explains. The locomotive’s motor becomes an electric generator, pushing the electricity back into the electrified rail and from there, to the grid. A large-scale storage facility that could handle 500 megawatts or more would take about 8 miles of track. The heavy boxcars are connected and disconnected according to how much power is being stored or sent back. The trains can store the power for an hour, a week, or a month with no loss over time—gravity doesn’t decay. And Kelly says they can achieve up to 90 percent efficiency. DWP’s Howard said that Kelly’s idea sounds “intriguing” and thinks it could work.

Human innovation is near endless. That is why doomsday predictions around peak oil and even climate change I have little time for. Both issues are real and important. But we shouldn’t rule out what future technology will bring us.

The April Food Price Index is out.

• Food prices down 0.2% on a year ago
• Food prices up 7.4% since Dec 2008, over four and a third years.
• Food prices increased 14.2% in the four years and four months to Dec 2008
• Fruit and veges have increased only 4.3% since Dec 2008
• Fruit and veges increased 20.6% in the four years and four months to Dec 2008

It seems the best way to keep the price of fruit and vegetables down has nothing to do with silly policies about removing GST on them.

Bob Edlin is blogging on Ag Science at his Ag Science Blog.

A recent blog was on new generation GM crops:

The next wave of genetically modified crops is making its way to market—and might just ease concerns over “Frankenfoods”, according to a report in Nature reproduced in Scientific American (here).

Anastasia Bodnar, a biotechnologist with Biology Fortified, is quoted as saying that when the first genetically modified (GM) organisms were being developed for the farm, they were promoted as futuristic, ultra-nutritious crops that would bring exotic produce to supermarkets and help to feed a hungry world.

But the technology so far has bestowed most of its benefits on agribusiness, largely through crops modified to withstand weed-killing chemicals or resist insect pests. This has allowed farmers to increase yields and spray less pesticide than they might have otherwise.

Yet the Greens are still against.

Some of the new generation of GM crops now making their way from laboratory to market will tackle new problems, from apples that stave off discoloration to ‘Golden Rice’ and bright-orange bananas fortified with nutrients to improve the diets of people in the poorest countries.

The fiends. Monsanto must not be allowed to make money from improving nutrition in poor countries.

Stuff reports:

A security inmate was locked in a visiting booth with his partner for hours because of the “poor practice” of staff, a report into the incident says.

The partner had driven to Rimutaka Prison from Opotiki last November and was granted an extra 30 minutes.

They were put in a non-contact booth and became worried when their time elapsed and no-one came to get them.

After they spent several hours yelling, the woman smashed an observation window but was unable to escape. Three hours later, another prisoner heard their yells and alerted the supervision officer.

Unless the room is set up in such a way that they are entirely physically segregated, I’d welcome several hours in a room with my partner if I was a prisoner!

Charlie Cooper in The Independent writes:

Whether or not one accepts a link between thePhilpott case and the argument for welfare reform, the tragedy has focused attention on one of the most difficult questions in modern politics: how the state should discourage people on benefits from having large numbers of children and expect the welfare system to pick up the bill.

And the options:

Docking benefits when children miss school:

One proposed policy, already in place in some US states, is for the parents of children who miss school to be docked benefits. In Michigan, parents whose children play truant for ten days see their social security cut.

In the UK, a senior government advisor suggested that the UK employ a similar strategy, extracting truancy fines from family’s state benefit.

Pros: encourages parents to be responsible for children’s education, without automatically removed their child benefit.

Cons: does not address issues of welfare dependency.

NZ has gone down this path.

Capping benefits:

A policy that is about to come into force in four London boroughs and will soon be rolled out nationwide, is that total benefits payments will be capped at £500 a week, or £26,000 per year for families of all sizes. The aim of the policy is to “make work pay” by bringing maximum benefit payments below the average full time salary.

However, the impact is expected to be predominately felt by large families, who make up the largest number of people currently receiving benefits above the cap. 73 per cent of households affected have three or more children.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said in its Green Budget 2013 that the policy may have an impact on fertility rates “since the cap will effectively reduce the state financial support for some large families”.

Pros: tackles the problem of families having children for the sake of the benefit they bring while also encouraging people into work.

Cons: will cut the income of families by an average £93 per week – plunging many into poverty.

I wouldn’t do this for current families, but you could announce this as a policy so people in future know that if they choose to keep having more children on welfare, they won’t keep getting more money.

Cutting the number of children eligible for benefits:

An idea that would once have been considered extreme now has the backing of senior Conservatives and is being considered by Iain Duncan Smith, the Work and Pensions Secretary. David Davis, a former Tory leadership challenger, has said in the wake of the Philpott case, that there is “a strong argument to restrict child benefit whether it is to two, three or four children”, although he added that policy should not be made “on the back of one story”.

His words echo Mr Duncan Smith last year, when he suggested that he would consider capping benefit payments for new claimants after the birth of the first two children – a scheme that was dubbed the “two-child policy” and earned comparisons to China’s population control methods. Charities said any such move would have “a devastating impact on children”.

Pros: directly targets the problem of families having children for the sake of the benefit award they bring.

Cons: will unfairly penalise the children of families that exceed the cap.

The Clinton reforms cut off funding for any additional children if the parent/s were already on welfare.

Vernon Small at Stuff reports:

Action on child poverty is set to be a surprise package in Bill English’s fifth Budget on Thursday as the Government seeks to make an impact with limited cash to spend.

Last week, Labour leader David Shearer predicted the Budget would be “for the boardroom not the smoko room”.

But early signals suggest it will address some of the recommendations in the report to the children’s commissioner by the advisory group on child poverty.

Oh dear. if correct, Labour will need a new slogan to use.

Never mind the socialist mindset that the board room and the smoko room are contradictory targets.

Yesterday, Prime Minister John Key would not rule in or out a move on food in schools but said National would not back Mana leader Hone Harawira’s “feed the kids” member’s bill.

However, he pointed to his state of the nation speech in 2007 and the Government’s support for KidsCan, Fonterra’s milk in schools programme and an extension to the fruit in schools scheme as signals he backed such moves in partnership with business.

Oh wait is this the same evil business that Labour is targeting?

Membrella reports:

Peter Fray, the former publisher and editor-in-chief of The Sydney Morning Herald, has today launched his newpolitical fact checking website PolitiFact Australia and says he is close to announcing a media partner for the site.

Politifact Australia is based on the format of its US counterpart, created by the Tampa Bay Times, and seeks to test political statements categorising them along a ‘truthometer’, with different ratings from true to half true to “pants on fire” for completely untrue statements.

I’d love to see a NZ version of a site such as this of Fact Check.

What is absolutely key is those involved in the site must be absolutely non-partisan and aligned.

The Australian site is here. So far they have given the following ratings:

• Tony Abbott – a mostly true and a mostly false
• Julia Gillard – a mostly false
• Lee Rhiannon (Greens) – a mostly true
• ALP – an outright false

The Herald reports:

Greens co-leader Metiria Turei said the deal was “disastrous” but she had not yet sought legal advice on the implications of rejecting the deal.

She said it could become a bottom line in future coalition discussions between the Greens and Labour and the Greens would want the legislation repealed.

“Whether we can negotiation that with them in the future – we will see. The Green Party does not accept being held to ransom like this and will repeal this legislation if we get into Government,” she said.

Another sabotage attempt. It is true Parliament is sovereign, and could legislate to break a contract the Government has signed without any penalties or compensation. Likewise Parliament could pass a law to nationalise supermarkets, confiscate your house without compensation or whatever it likes.

However it is a sure fire way to scare investment away from a country. A major reason why first world countries are first world countries is because of respect for property rights and the fact people can invest in a country without fear that a change of Government may result in their investment or property being confiscated.

The Greens seem to be positioning themselves to the left of Chavez, and Labour are trying to outflank them on the left.  That’s good news for National, but bad for New Zealand as eventually they will get elected.

JustSpeak in Auckland have a forum this Wednesday at 6.30 pm at the Alleluya Cafe in St Kevin’s Arcade on K Road.

JustSpeak invites you to the second of the three-part Beyond Prisons series of discussions looking at New Zealand’s prison system and the possibilities beyond incarceration.

Following on from our first forum, which focused on the wider societal impact of prisons, this forum seeks to better understand life inside of prisons. The daily realities of prisons are largely hidden from the general public. This forum will examine the impact of imprisonment on the individual and those closest to them.

We will hear from four panelists, all of whom have themselves experienced life within the walls or worked closely with prisoners:

– Denis Bumbury, a counsellor therapist and currently a chaplain at Mt Eden Prison
– Lois Naera, a social worker with Pillars, an organisation that works with the children of prisoners;
– Mike Templeton, a former prisoner who now works with prisoners; and
– Steve Hall, Director of Reducing Re-Offending for Serco NZ, the company that holds the contract for Mt Eden Corrections Facility.

This forum will be a rare opportunity to hear stories and insights from those who have been subject to incarceration and those working within prisons, including their thoughts on whether prisons fulfil their four primary functions: punish, deter, protect and rehabilitate.

There will also be an opportunity to ask the speakers questions.

As usual, entry is free and light refreshments will be provided – all welcome.

I was on a panel at a similar forum last week, discussing the recent law change around prisoner voting rights, and thought it was a good discussion (even though I was in a very distinct minority).

I am of the view that some prisoners will not respond to rehabilitation until age gets the better of them (and they are sadly the majority) but there are a significant number who will and can be rehabilitated and it would be fascinating to hear some views from the frontline, including Serco’s.

If you want to go along, just RSVP on Facebook (or just turn up).

Stuff reports:

MP Aaron Gilmore appears to have threatened ”revenge” on those who effected his downfall ahead of his valedictory speech in Parliament tomorrow.

After he resigned from Parliament last night, at least four people are understood to have received a text message from Gilmore this morning, including National Party members, advising them to learn the meaning of ”utu” – the Maori word for revenge.

Those who have received messages include Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater and Christchurch lawyer Andrew Riches.

I’ll be glad when this is all over. In the last week the Government has been full steam ahead:

• Unemployment down
• Tax up and spending down
• Economic growth and business confidence up
• An Auckland Housing Accord
• An international convention centre for Auckland
• A $1.7 billion share float
• 80,000 new shareholders on the NZX
• Extra money for the Christchurch rebuild
• Pre-Budget spending announcements

The last 10 days should have been 10 days of basically non-stop good news for the Government. Instead we’ve had this side-show. After the conclusion tomorrow, hopefully we can all move on.

Graeme Edgeler at Public Address blogs:

If these count as donations (and both Labour, and the Electoral Commission appear to accept they do), then each of the sums above created a separate obligation of disclosure, with 10 working days allowed after each to declare it. The failure to do so within that time period, on each of the four occasions is (unless the Party Secretary has a “reasonable excuse”) a separate offence, carrying a maximum fine of $40,000.

So what about the reasonable excuse? Labour claims it was unsure whether or not a bequest counts as a donation. Edgeler points out:

So I do not consider this is as clear as others believe. However, despite my doubts, I have no sympathy for the Labour Party.

I simply cannot accept “confusion” as an explanation. Being confused about this means you received the money and thought about it whether it had to be disclosed, and just couldn’t make up your mind for certain either way. In a situation like this, if you think you may have a legal obligation to do something, and are confused, the thing you do is check. If the reason the two Labour Party Secretaries involved (Chris Flatt at the time of the first three payments, and Tim Barnett at the time of the last payment) didn’t declare these payments as donations was because they were “confused” about whether it was required then what they’ve realised that what they’re (not) doing may be an offence, but have chosen to run the risk.

I call bullshit on the claim they were confused. If you are confused, then you seek advice. Graeme’s advice would have been:

I am happy to provide you with a legal opinion if you really want, but why do you care? Just file a disclosure anyway, and save yourself some money. At the very least, just call up the Electoral Commission and ask. If they say you a bequest doesn’t count as a donation, then don’t file a return, but otherwise, what’s the harm? 

All Labour had to do was e-mail the Electoral Commission and ask them.

Newstalk ZB’s Felix Marwick apparently has confirmation that the Electoral Commission won’t be referring these matters to the Police, which has disappointed a number of people. There is nothing to stop individuals laying complaints with the police, and I suspect a number will, although it seems unlikely police will pursue charges.

Someone should complain to the Police, and if the Police don’t act, then a private prosecution sounds a good idea.

I don’t know the reasons for the Commission’s decision, but the view that it would be wrong to hold an individual responsible for whatever failure happened in this case (when it may have been someone else’s fault) may factor. This possibility shows, I think, one of the flaws in our electoral law. For something like this, there will often be no reason to sheet responsibility to an individual for a failure like this. The law should allow political parties to be charged directly, not sheet home responsibility only to party secretaries.

I agree, it should be Labour facing a fine, not their former or current general secretaries.

Steve and Rasha Taylor run a small bridal & designer dress studio in Upper Hutt. They’ve written an article on buying dresses online, as more and more Kiwis are doing this. It works out good for some, but for others has ended in tears. Their article is here.

• Lesson #1: An online dresses website can be run from anywhere in the world.  An online dresses website may pretend or appear to be a local business in you own country.  As a guide, Google search the website or associated websites you are browsing with the word “scam” and see what comes up.  Don’t be surprised when your package arrives direct from China.   BE PREPARED FOR EXTRA CUSTOMS DUTIES & TAXES – even if it claims “free shipping”.

• Lesson #2:  Anyone can use Google advertising.  Don’t assume that a lot of advertising means the site is trustworthy.  Don’t simply assume the order that online dresses websites appear on your Google search ranking means the websites at the top are trustworthy.
• Lesson #3:  An elaborate refund policy does not authenticate an online dresses website.  If a site uses Paypal, this does not automatically mean it is trustworthy.  When you pay with a credit card, always keep an eye on your bank statement.  Make sure you know how much you are really paying.
• Lesson #4:  A fancy graphic with many payment options & trust verifications does not make an online dresses website legitimate.  If a trust verification logo such as DigiCert or Trustwave does not open, be very concerned.
• Lesson #5: Stunning professional looking photos with watermarks do not add legitimacy to an online dresses website.
• Lesson #6:  Don’t expect the dress to look like the photo.  Seriously – don’t get your hopes up.
• Lesson #7:  Budget a LOT more money for alterations & back up options, because your cheap online dress is not likely to fit.  Be mentally prepared in advance that it may be so bad you might have to just bin it.  If you strike it lucky and get a great dress, good for you.  If you bought a fake, don’t insult hard working designers by asking them to fix it.
• Lesson #8:  Take the on-site reviews and dubious blog entries as an unverified opinion only.  Be wary of the practices used by online dress scams and knock off merchants in manipulating reviews and feedback.
• Lesson #9:  Understand how drop shipping works.   Make sure the seller has a method of contact. Always read the terms and conditions to be sure of the process when purchasing online dresses.

• Lesson #10:  Don’t think you are immune.  Wise up and make an informed purchase. For such an important purchase, check out your local retailers to!  If you get scammed or ripped off by a company selling online dresses, for goodness sake TELL PEOPLE!

The Today programme had a feature on these scams.

Iain Martin writes in the Daily Telegraph:

Another day, another deranged report on the future of Heathrow. This time it is the Transport Select Committee suggesting that London’s main airport be extended to four (four!) runways, doubling the airport’s size and blighting the lives of millions of people who live in West London. Forget the various horse racing scandals. We must ask: were the members of the select committee doped? Or is it just that they wrote their report without looking at a map?

It is – once again from the current political class – the sheer lack of ambition and vision that it is so depressing. Extending Heathrow rather than looking for a proper long-term solution is simply corporatist defeatism. As though all the airline industry has to do is launch another of its interminable public affairs campaigns and the country will roll over.

Heathrow suits the airlines, because they are already there and they think extending it would be cheap and easy for them. A larger Heathrow suits some politicians because it seems like a good idea, until you think about it and look at a map. Incidentally, aviation is merely another industry that should be at our beck and call rather than the other way round.

So what did Boris say?

What a relief it was then to hear the Mayor of London on the radio today being uplifting and knocking the report into touch. Boris is spot on. London needs to look eastwards rather than compounding a planning mistake made at Heathrow in the 1940s. ….

Imagine as the crown jewels of London’s expansion, a new four or five runway airport built further out east, the best airport in the world in the world’s greatest city, on land reclaimed from the sea. That is not an outlandish idea. Just ask the Dutch, or look at Hong Kong’s airport. The new transport links feeding the airport could also involve new commuter lines to the major employment hubs of the centre.

But, responds the ruling elite, it’s too expensive, we’re a rubbish country now, we can’t do this sort of stuff in Britain. Let’s just give in to the airlines and hope for quieter planes which seem forever to be just around the corner but never arrive.

Boris says “piffle” to all that. He blows a raspberry in the face of the defeatists. Would building the world’s greatest airport, serving a city where people want to live not be the most marvellous money-spinner and investment opportunity? Get the world’s sovereign wealth funds and hungry investors to pile in. Issue London bonds. Fire up the architects. For the good of Britain expand London. Build, build, build and increase the opportunities available to London’s poorer citizens. Get moving!

Boris says this stuff in such an uplifting way that I am convinced increasingly that he could be Britain’s Ronald Reagan. I mean that as a compliment. Like the great American president, he exudes optimism about his country’s capacity for renewal and recovery.

And the future:

Boris need not be made prime minister this minute. But eventually, when the rhetoric of austerity is exhausted, and the current leaders have fought themselves to a standstill, there will be an opportunity for someone to emerge with a bit of anti-politics oomph and pizazz. Someone who says that actually the 2020s and beyond could be great for Britain if we don’t overload the economy with high taxes and use a bit of imagination. We have so much going for us in terms of language, culture, ideas, science, industry, sport, innovation and pubs. We need an injection of the feel-good spirit and some dynamism.

There will eventually be an appetite for optimism, and Boris seems keen to supply it. There is another aspect of his potential appeal. Who can cut a deal with UKIP’s Nigel Farage in 2017 or thereabouts, in the Rose Garden of Number 10? Boris can.

Boris’ term as Mayor ends in 2016. It will be very interesting to see what seats come up around that time.

Brian Fallow writes:

The economic forecasts underpinning Thursday’s Budget will need to differ substantially from those the Treasury offered in its half-year update six months ago.

The economy began this year with a lot more momentum than it (or other forecasters) expected. Gross domestic product growth in the December quarter was three times what the Treasury had forecast. But then the drought hit.

The exchange rate is a lot higher than expected, and inflation accordingly lower. Except for house price inflation: house prices are already higher than the Treasury expected them to be in four years’ time.

Unemployment is already down to the levels expected two years from now.

Which is good. However the latest HLFS came out after the Budget forecasts were finalised.

And the estimated cost of rebuilding Christchurch has climbed by a third to $40 billion.

All of these factors will affect the forecast track for revenue, in one direction or the other, and some will affect spending as well.

In March the Treasury estimated the drought would reduce real GDP this year by 0.7 per cent from what it would otherwise have been.

Hence I expect the projected surplus for 2014/15 to remain very slim.

Audrey Young reports:

The number of public relations and communications staff in most government departments has dropped in the past four years – with some notable exceptions, including the Treasury – according to a Cabinet paper on public service staffing.

Overall, communications positions (full-time equivalents) have fallen by 14.34 per cent from December 2008 to last December, with some exceptions.

The number of Treasury communications positions increased from 2.9 to 4.9. The number of Statistics New Zealand staff increased heavily last year but that was in the build-up to the Census this year.

The Serious Fraud Office took on one position where it had none before, and the Department of Prime Minister and the Cabinet increased from one to two.

The Ministry of Women’s Affairs has had the biggest reduction in communications positions, from 5.2 to 0.9, a drop of 82.69 per cent.

Down

* Women’s affairs 5.2 to 0.9
* Transport 9.4 to 3.5
* State Services Comm 5.7 to 3
* Environment 9.3 to 5
* Health 11.7 to 6.3
* Land Information 9.9 to 6
* Education 19.4 to 12.6
* Conservation 16.4 to 11

Up

* Treasury 2.9 to 4.9
* Prime Minister and Cabinet 1 to 2
* Culture and Heritage 2.5 to 4

Overall a good trend. Government agencies of course have to have communications staff, but the growth in the 2000s was unsustainable.

Steven Joyce has announced a heads of agreement with Sky City for construction of an international convention centre for Auckland. The details are:

• Construction cost $402 million
• Capacity will be 3,500 delegates
• Projected economic benefit is $90 million a year
• Jobs estimated to be 1,000 during construction and 800 once up and running
• An extra 33,000 delegates a year expected
• Renewal of casino licence from 2021  to 2048
• An additional 230 pokie machines and 40 gaming tables
• Four new measures to deter problem gambling and money laundering
  • a predictive modelling tool that analyses data to identify players at risk of problem gambling
  • a voluntary pre-commitment system where players can elect to restrict the amount of time they play or the amount they spend
  • doubling the number of Host Responsibility specialists
  • introduction of player identification requirements when amounts over $500 are being put onto, or cashed from, TITO tickets

This reinforces to me what a tough negotiator Steven Joyce is, as groups were talking the agreement could be as many as 500 new pokie machines. The number, at 230, is identical to those granted to SkyCity under the previous Government in 2001 for the development of the existing, and much smaller, Auckland Convention Centre.

This agreement in principle was announced before the 2011 election has been fully transparent and the legislation to enable it will go through Parliament to be debated.

It is also worth noting that the number of pokie machines in New Zealand will continue to decrease overall, just at a slower rate.

1,000 new jobs and an international convention centre bringing in an extra 33,000 high spending tourists a year is a very good thing. I hope Parliament backs the deal.

Aaron Gilmore has announced:

“It is with a heavy heart and great sadness that I announce my intention to resign from Parliament.

“After taking counsel from colleagues and family in recent days, I have decided that to stay on in Parliament would only serve to cause my loved ones more upset, and cause me undeserved further stress.

“I have made mistakes. I am human. But the attacks on my integrity have started taking a toll on those around me and this is unfair on them

“I also want to make clear my support for the National Party and Prime Minister John Key remains unwavering.”

“Finally, I want to apologise once again to all those people who I’ve let down with my behaviour. I’m determined to learn from those lessons as I continue my life with more grace and humility.

“I will seek to make a final statement in Parliament on Tuesday.”

It is the right decision for both himself and for the Government.

In the past week the Government has just had a successful float of Mighty River Power, a massive drop in unemployment, an improvement in the financial statements, a top 10 rating from Stand and Poors, an Auckland Housing Accord and this week have their Budget. It is intolerable that so much good news was getting drowned out by this issue.

Congratulations to Claudette Hauiti who will be joining Paul Foster-Bell as a new List MP later this month.

Jon Stewart exposes how CNN did a live split screen interview between two hosts, designed to give an impression they are in different locations but both had the same bus appear behind them within half a second – they were 10 metres apart from each other. CNN chose to deceive the public.

A shocking expose of their values.

Hat Tip: Terry Wallbank