Some media have trumpeted a poll from Ipsos that says 65% of NZers support a Capital Gains Tax. But they over look the fact that when you ask about details, they actually oppose most aspects except what we already have.

The actual support for different things being taxed are:

• Sale of an investment property 57%
• Sale of a business 43%
• Sale of other assets 22%
• Sale of family home 13%

Investment properties that are sold within the bright line period are already fully taxed.

A CGT such as the Cullen TWG recommended actually only has 22% supporting it – a far cry from 65%.

Also worth noting that if a CGT comes in, then 58% want other taxes reduced to compensate and only 29% want it to be used to increase the overall tax take.

Over 150 million people have voted in the United States at around 200,000 polling places. At this stage no one in the world knows the result. Everyone will find out at the same time how things are looking as the results come in. There is something very equalising about elections. Because it is so decentralised, no President,. Governor or candidate knows the result before anyone else. You have to wait for the teams and teams of election officials, watched by scrutineers, to tally up the votes at each place.

Use this thread to post updates and reactions as results come in.

My vibe based predictions are:

• Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada for 257 electoral votes and Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania for 281 electoral votes
• The GOP flip 3 Senate seats and take it 52 – 48
• Democrats flip the House, but having a majority of five or less

I expect (and hope) I am wrong.

UPDATES:

1. At 2 pm, Trump is up to 67% on the Polymarket betting market
2. Trump has won Florida, as expected. Harris done worse than expected in Miami-Dade, which suggests Hispanic voters have gone more for Trump
3. NY Times Needle has Trump slightly favoured to win, ahead in Pennsylvania at 51% probability
4. NY Times Needle no longer has Harris as favourite to win any of the seven swing states – tied in Wisconsin and Michigan, and trailing in all others
5. NY Times Needle now has Trump as 66% probable to win.
6. Polymarket has Trump at 80% to win. Almost all over.
7. Trump at 89% on Polymarket
8. NY Times has Trump at 78%, now 83%
9. NY Times is projecting Trump will win the popular vote
10. And Trump now deemed “likely” to win by NY Times at 88%

Now all over/ Trump has won the Electoral College, and the GOP has won a majority in the Senate – somewhere from 51 to 56 seats. The House outcome won’t be known for possibly days, but if it follows the other results you’d have to say likely GOP increases its majority.

This would give Republicans control of both chambers and the presidency. I suspect the new Senate will ditch the filibuster, so there could be some significant law changes to come.

A guest post by Yolkovermarmite, a conservative Kiwi living in the US, who supports Kamala Harris in this election:

Everyone highly interested or concerned about the election tonight will be experiencing their own copium today, from avoidance of all discussion and staying off social media, to burying themselves in work, or, in my case, giving into the ‘fun’ of burying into it for the last few months around the edges of my actual life. This election has been another wild ride with the sudden change of horse against the guaranteed madness of King Trump. 
This race is likely close, though maybe not as close as all the herded polls would tell you. I think I can make a strong case for why either candidate can win, and for Trump that would include consumer confidence lagging the improving economy, combined with hazy memories of the ‘good’ Trump economy, continued fears over inflation, a definite fear of immigration, and maybe even some of the culture war stuff connected to Trans issues. However, as I hate Trump, to the bottom of my core, I don’t want to break down what could lead him to win, other than to acknowledge that I see and understand those arguments. What I would rather do, as a much more enjoyable exercise for me on election day, is to set out the reasons for why Harris can and will win, then set out election night predictions and my final, optimistic, electoral college split for Harris.
Reasons why I think Kamala Harris will win (from most important to least):
The Gender Gap
The most important reason that Harris will win the election, is that the gender gap is the most pronounced of my lifetime, with more women supporting Harris than men supporting Trump. Has been the case ever since Dobbs and the rolling back of abortion rights across so many states, exacerbated by Trump’s clear misogyny and general creepiness towards women (“support women whether they liked it or not”), surely reminding many that he has been a proven creep from the pussy grabbing tape, to the Jean Carroll rape case, to this week’s revelations about the sexual assaults that Trump performed in the presence of his “good friend” Jeffrey Epstein. I think it’s clear that pollsters that are herding together for comfort by basing their voter screens on 2020, are potentially missing a quiet political realignment post Dobbs, amongst older women, especially Boomer women, focused initially on abortion, and now broader reproductive rights aligned to the threats to IVF and female contraception that Project 2025 has brought sharply into view. Joining these older women who in their youth fought for those rights, is a sharp incline of newly registered voters, disproportionately featuring young women, who understand that the rights secured for them by boomer women, directly impact their reproductive rights today. 
Incredibly, given that there are more women than men in the national voter pool, and women are higher propensity voters than men, rather than trying hard to reassure women that their rights are safe with him, Trump decided to focus on turning out a matching lead amongst men, especially young men, even though the voters with the lowest propensity for voting are young males. I do not think that’s generally a winning strategy and right now that is reflected in the early vote, where women have voted at a percentage 10 points higher than men. 
If you take in the cross-tabs from how the Democrats blunted the feared ‘red wave’ in 2022, along with the outcome of special elections and abortion referendums in red and purple states since 2022, and the surprising high quality polling from top notch pollsters in Kansas and Iowa, it’s clear that women hold the key to this election, and Harris has certainly noticed this, with abortion and Project 2025 being heavily featured again in the last couple of weeks of the campaign. The Selzer poll in Iowa may not actually play out with a Harris win, but if it is directionally accurate, then the Trump campaign can look back on Trump’s disdain towards women and their rights, as a key reason for why he lost. 
The (usually accurate) Selzer poll that has Harris leading in Iowa, states that her surprising lead is driven by an underrepresented percentage of the population in herded polls, which are older postmenopausal women who fought so hard to get reproductive rights in the first place, now deeply concerned for their daughters and granddaughters and are aware of the stories of the many young women who have died unnecessarily in states like Texas. This is especially true of women who live in red states that have recently imposed six-week abortion bans with little or no exceptions for circumstances. The extent and enthusiasm of gender gap alone can really harm Trump this election.
Economy & Inflation
One key issue that initially pointed to Trump being a runaway winner, no matter who the Democrats ran against him, was the perceived state of the economy and undeniable impact of high inflation on voters. This was despite the US economy under Biden, performing much better than almost all other countries in the same timeframe. Crucially, the economy and inflation continuing to recover since Harris entered the race, along with her disciplined messaging on the economy, gave Harris the chance to draw even with Trump on the economy, allowing other issues to take greater primacy, like reproductive rights and democracy. 
Running an Excellent campaign
Whatever happens tonight, it must be recognized that Harris, in a very short time, stood up and ran an excellent campaign. Harris hit it out of the park with each of the critical set pieces that feature in every campaign – the launch including her choice of Vice President, the convention, the debate where she thrashed Trump, her interview with Fox News, and her close. Not since Obama of 2008, have I seen any Presidential candidate manage these set pieces so successfully. 
Has the campaign been perfect? Of course not, in the middle of her campaign, after she had built a slight lead, she perhaps fell into the trap of playing ‘prevent defense’ being too cautious and middle of the road in her messaging. I think it was unfortunate that she pulled back from I think were populist messaging winners such as attacking price gouging. I also think she could have used Tim Walz a bit more, because he is great on television taking on Republicans. But these are minor things, and in so many ways I think she has been an outstanding candidate, and I have no doubt that if Biden was still the nominee, especially after that ‘garbage supporters’ gaffe he made recently, we would be facing a run-away Trump win. 
I think her performance as a candidate, and her campaign team’s discipline, has put her into the best possible position to win tomorrow night and if she does not win, I do not think it is because of the campaign that she ran, rather than the underlying factors like Biden’s unpopularity, that will be largely to blame. 
Get Out The Vote (GOTV) 
Connected to running an excellent campaign is building, in a tight race, a well-funded, very professional, very disciplined GOTV campaign through all of the campaign, building on what Biden bequeathed her as he had invested early and heavily in the ground campaign, once it became clear that he would struggle to get re-elected. Trump on the other hand, has relied on a couple of bros in Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk, who are not professional campaigners and have little to no experience in getting out the vote in swing states and that could mean they under-perform their own GOTV by an extra point or two. Elon Musk hilariously fired all of his Michigan canvassers from one of these groups over the weekend, because it turned out that not enough of them had been canvassing voters but had been faking knocking on doors to just pick up the cheque, which was only discovered after reporting from the Guardian newspaper. 
Avoiding Explicit Identity Politics
I think it has been smart that in this election, that Harris has avoided the temptation of overt identity politics on her gender and ethnicity. I think Hillary Clinton did Harris a great service in this regard, breaking through the glass ceiling with her historic run in 2016 meant that when Harris got into the race, she did not need to belabor the point that she would be the first female president and able to avoid most of the dumb questions that Hillary faced, such as ‘could a woman be suitable as a commander-in-chief?”. 
Not having to rehash those types of questions, Harris avoided the potential downsides of making explicit references to her gender and ethnicity as arguments to support her candidacy, focusing on more inclusive (and generic) arguments relating to why and how she would work for us and highlighting the dangers of re-electing Trump. At the same time, she made implicit and positive references to her gender and ethnicity, with high-profile appearances and endorsements from iconic black female entertainers and leaders, highlighting women, and her case with women, while not denigrating men or white people in the process. It is how a candidate can send a dog-whistle to some of their most highly motivated base, without agitating other parts of the electorate into voting against you. I would vote for a bucket of flaming turds over Trump, and that is what I am almost solely focused on, however, if Harris wins, I will look forward to enjoying America’s long-overdue ascension of a woman to the most powerful political position in America, and therefore the world.
Ironically, it is Trump who is leaning hard into white male grievance politics on anti-immigrant racial politics and gender, something that worked for him in 2016, but likely more counter-productive this time. 
Tariffs
“Tariffs baby, big fat tariffs” there’s nothing that Trump seems to love more than a tariff. He even peddled this insane idea that he could remove domestic income tax entirely and replace it with tariffs, as that is how much he loves tariffs. Problem is, you know who does not love tariffs? American farmers, who he hurt with unfocused tariffs the first time he was president. In rural mid-western states like Iowa, after abortion, his proposed array of new tariffs may further depress some of that farm-led support. I think it was smart of Harris to call those tariff proposals “Trump’s Sale Tax” she clearly thought it would hurt him a bit with producers and consumers alike, and I agree.

Predictions
Harris wins the Popular Vote
I think recent polls and special elections in Kentucky, Iowa, and Kansas, makes the MAGA trumpeted notion that Trump finally wins the popular vote fanciful, because of the ongoing opposition to those bans driving conservative older women, and newly registered younger women to turn against the GOP. Is that opposition enough to see Iowa turn blue tonight? I don’t think so, but it is likely enough to depress the winning margins for Trump in those red states, to more than offset the gains Trump has made in New York and California where he has recently campaigned, probably to help drive another ‘stop the steal campaign’ by winning (or just losing) the popular vote if he loses the Electoral College. I think that Marist Poll of Harris now winning by four points nationally, is likely correct, or close to it.
Trump Underperforms his Polls
Not enough has been made, I think, of Trump underperforming his polls since his overperformance in 2020. For instance, in the Republican primary season this year, yes he won the Primary, but consistently underperformed his polls in state after state against Nikki Haley, even after she dropped out but remained on the ballet. I think that weakness within the GOP is reflective of Non-MAGA conservative women’s unease with Trump and I think that will cost him again. In the 2022 midterms, the most Trumpy candidates, selected by Trump, competing in swing state races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona for the midterms, all badly lost, underlining the voter realignment post-Dodds, and the first time Trump began paying a price for delivering Dodds and potentially his attempts to thwart democracy on January 6th. Democrats, since Dodds have consistently overperformed in all special elections across various states. This shows the continuing potency of Dodds.
Early Vote going for Harris
There is a danger in over-interpretating early voter data, however, it is encouraging that the split of the early vote shows potential softening of Republican Registered vote for Trump, underlining the theory of the case above may already be holding true, that enough Haley Primary voters, especially conservative women, are moving away from Trump. We shall see.
Late Breakers are also going for Harris
That final Marist Poll (A rated), showing a 4-point national spread to Kamala Harris (51% – 47%, the biggest lead of their cycle, which they put down to late deciders breaking decisively for Harris. 4 points nationally would more than likely be enough for a narrow to moderate EC win. 

So… finally, proof in the pudding, my Electoral College total and Electoral College Map. It would be more prudent to follow the majority of pundits and wager Harris to win with an EC total of 276 (Blue Wall + Nevada), but what is the fun in that? I’ll go with the much more ambitious total below:
Harris: 308 Trump: 230
https://www.270towin.com/maps/GjdlZ
Harris wins all the swing states other than Arizona, and only loses by a handful of points in Iowa.
In the final analysis, I believe women will deliver this election to Harris, especially older white, conservative leaning women, on Dobbs, Democracy, and sufficient comfort with the upward trajectory of the economy.

Simon Court said:

“My bill would repeal the monopolies held by the Invercargill, Mataura, Portage and Waitakere Licensing Trusts. It would break these communities free from silly rules and give entrepreneurial locals the ability to sell alcohol under the same rules that apply nationwide.

“West Auckland is growing rapidly. But there are only eight venues licensed as taverns or hotels in West Auckland to serve a population of 296,000 – one for every 37,000 residents. In Auckland as a whole, there is one venue for every 3,900 people.

“The community is being underserved. It means that some locals either go without the services that other Aucklanders rightfully expect the market to provide, or they have to travel and spend their money elsewhere in Auckland.

“The current rules are a confusing mess. In my home patch of West Auckland, you can operate a hotel, but you’re not allowed a bar or room service. Supermarkets can’t sell alcohol, but you can get it delivered to your door. It’s totally ridiculous.

So 90% fewer outlets for locals to choose from when there is a monopoly, and you can’t buy a bottle of wine at the local supermarket. Ridiculous.

The FP reports:

On Wednesday, the day after the election, most of us are going to roll out of bed, have our breakfast, and get on with our day—no matter which presidential candidate wins. But students at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy—where diplomats and policymakers are molded—have another option: They can play with Legos. Seriously.

In an email to McCourt students, Jaclyn Clevenger, the school’s director of student engagement, introduced the school’s post-election “Self-Care Suite.” 

“In recognition of these stressful times,” she wrote, “all McCourt community members are welcome to gather. . . in the 3rd floor Commons to take a much needed break, joining us for mindfulness activities and snacks throughout the day.” 

And what are these activities:

10:00 a.m.-11:00 a.m.: Tea, Cocoa, and Self-Care
11:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.: Legos Station
12:00 p.m.-1:00 p.m.: Healthy Treats and Healthy Habits
1:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m.: Coloring and Mindfulness Exercises
2:00 p.m.-3:00 p.m.: Milk and Cookies
4:00 p.m.-5:00 p.m.: Legos and Coloring
5:00 p.m.-6:00 p.m.: Snacks and Self-Guided Meditation

Students pay US$60,000 a year to go to McCourt. I hope they get at least chocolate chip cookies for their fees.

Future Labour Leader Michael Wood has been decrying the possibility that airport security may be devolved from CAA to individual airports. He says this is terrible.

However a reader has pointed out to me that seaport security is done by the 21 ports, not by the Government. The Government has an overall regulatory role, but doesn’t actually run the security checks at each port.

No reason this model is unsuitable for airports.

The Taxpayers’ Union reports:

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union can reveal through an official information act request that Sports NZ’s “Say Thanks to Your Coach” campaign cost $171,598, with Sports NZ contributing $131,598 and Coach for Life contributing a further $40,000. The campaign featured a website for a month, which was used to send e-cards and video messages.

Commenting on this, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said:

“Sports NZ’s ability to somehow spend more than $575 per thank-you email takes the gold for government waste.

This is a great example of what waste is in the system, when some on the left insist that you can;t cut funding without impacting core services.

To spent $172,000 on a campaign that generated 298 e-mails is appalling.

Vision for Wellington has announced:

It’s no secret that Wellington faces challenges. Let’s do something about about them.

Vision for Wellington unites people passionate about Wellington and committed to seeing our city thrive. We’re a bipartisan, collective voice advocating for Wellington and aiming to set a bold direction for the city.

We will facilitate expert-led panels early next year, gathering local thought leaders in areas like innovation, arts and culture, events and hospitality, economic growth, transport, infrastructure, civic leadership and distinctiveness. Wellingtonians will be able to attend, share, and contribute. We aim to inspire, and to be inspired.

Our goal is to co-create a Vision for Wellington – something aspirational and practical in equal measure – and a source of pride and positivity about the city and its future.

Good to see people come together to try and provide the leadership that is lacking at Wellington City Council. The list of founders is very impressive:

• Peter Biggs
• Sinead Boucher
• Mike Egan
• Myles Gazley
• Sir Bob Jones
• Aaron Leech
• Sarah Meikle
• Rob Morrison
• Fran O’Sullivan
• Kristen (KP) Patterson
• Neil Paviour-Smith
• Luke Pierson
• Dame Kerry Prendergast
• Dame Patsy Reddy
• Phil Royal
• Dame Therese Walsh
• Dame Fran Wilde
• Simon Woolf

Two former Mayors, a former Governor-General and one of our top business leaders, plus many more.

I encourage people to sign up for updates. We need to change the status quo, with a positive vision and people who can make that happen.

Radio NZ profiles The Pākehā Project:

A group of Pākehā is embracing the opportunity to honour Te Tiriti, saying that a commitment to tino rangatiratanga strengthens, rather than divides, Aotearoa.

The Pākehā Project is an organisation of tangata Tiriti leaders who run programmes and workshops for Pākehā, aimed at deepening their understanding of the constitutional foundations of Aotearoa. …

The Pākehā Project’s work was focused on helping people become comfortable with discomfort-acknowledging emotions such as grief, rage, guilt, and shame, without using them as a tool for blame, Sinclair said.

“We don’t try and shame people or make people feel guilty, but we know that’s going to come when you start to open yourself up to these stories and start to see the harm that has been caused by whiteness in the world.”

This group is so dripping wet that you could fill up a swimming pool with them.

She said such sentiments only underscored the importance of anti-racism education.

“This gave me a small glimpse into the hate that fear can elicit. And it is exactly why we need programmes like ours and many others that directly address how racism and oppression work.”

I’d say ascribing harm to the the colour of ones skin is a prime example of racism.

UPDATE: It’s a very profitable grift.

You pay $15,000 per person to be taught how bad white people are. I wonder how many government departments are clients!

The NY Post reports:

P’nut the Squirrel, of internet fame, has been euthanized after the pet was seized by New York state earlier this week, according to the Department of Environmental Conservation.

The seven-year-old gray rescue squirrel, commonly referred to as “P’Nut” on Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok, was put to death, along with Fred the raccoon, so that the animals could be tested for the presence of rabies, according to a statement from the agency obtained by WETM.  

He had the squirrel as a pet for seven years. The government raided his house, searched it for five hours, and then killed P’Nut. All because of an anonymous complaint from someone in Texas.

This is why we should be wary of giving too much power to governments.

The hysterical smears continue. Some on the left live in a fictional world where only organisations they agree with are grass roots organisations, and when an organisation succeeds they disagree with, their minds are so limited they think it must be due to overseas big money.

Funnily enough they never scrutinise the organisations they like. Action Station doesn’t even publish annual accounts because they are a company.

The FSU was created because Auckland’s Mayor claimed he blocked two Canadian speakers from being able to speak at a Council venue. Then Massey deplatformed Don Brash and support grew, and thanks to the efforts of so many on the left, support keeps growing for the FSU as we see weekly examples of attempts to sack people for their political opinions.

As I understand it the FSU has around 70,000 supporters on their mailing list. And over 10,000 have donated to the FSU. You can’t get more grassroots than that. But Greg can’t actually deal with the possibility that the FSU is a successful grassroots organisations, so he resorts to conspiracy smears.

Some on the left don’t understand that the Internet has allowed ordinary New Zealanders to organise and support causes they believe in. Whether it be Taxpayers’s Union, Groundswell, Free Speech Union or Hobson’s Pledge – they all get the vast bulk of their funding through thousands of small dollar donations from ordinary New Zealanders.

I previously blogged on how the Electoral Commission referred Te Pati Maori to the Police for not filing their annual financials statements by 30 June 2024, as required by law.

Their party secretary is Lance Norman (a manager in one of the Tamihere organisations) and I wonder if he realises the personal risk he is at.

S210J(2) of the Electoral Act says:

A party secretary is guilty of a corrupt practice if the party secretary, without reasonable excuse,(a) provides the Electoral Commission with annual financial statements for the party after the late period; or
(b) fails to provide the Electoral Commission with annual financial statements for the party.

The late period is 15 working days from the deadline, so 21 July 2024, which we are three months past. So Mr Norman could be charged with a corrupt practice, not just an illegal practice.

And what is the penalty?

either or both a term of imprisonment not exceeding 2 years or a fine not exceeding $100,000

The fine might not be a concern as he could be reimbursed for that, but if I was Mr Norman I’d be very worried about the possibility of jail time, unless he has a reasonable excuse for not providing the party’s financial statements as required by law.

Tama Potaka announced the appointment of Richard Prebble, Ken Williamson and Kevin Prime to the Waitangi Tribunal.

Some people think the Tribunal is a judicial body, but in reality is is appointed by the Government of the day. 19 of 20 members have a maximum term of three years, so in one term of Government the Government will appoint 95% to 100% of the members.

Those who claim the Waitangi Tribunal, not Parliament, should decide what the Treaty means should reflect that this can mean the Government of the day can decide, by simply appointing members with a particular viewpoint.

On Wednesday we will get most of(but not all) of the US election results. In the post I’m going to go through the various forecasts and predictions. There will be some further polls in the next 48 hours, but they are unlikely to move the averages much.

US House

Is 2022 the Republicans won a majority being 222 to 213 of the 435 House seats, flipping control. However the polls had them winning by a larger margin, so they underperformed to the polls.

Since then, the Republicans have dropped to 220 seats, just two above the 218 needed to control the chamber.

538 and DDHQ have the Republicans slight favourites to retain control, as does the Polymarket prediction market. The naysayers are The Economist at 45% and Race to WH at 30%.

The actual seat projections are as close as you can get. You need 218 for control and 538 and DDHQ has them on 218, and Cook on 221. Others have them just missing out with The Economist on 216 and Race to WH on 213.

This indicates that not only is control as close as you can get, but whichever party wins may have the slimmest of majorities, which will make life very hard for the Speaker.

The Senate

The Democrats hold this 51 to 49. In a 50/50 tie the Vice-President’s casting vote determines control.

All forecasts are for the Republicans to win at least 51 seats. 538 has this at 90% probability, DDHQ 74%, Economist 71%, Race to WH 65%. Polymarket betting is at 79%.

All models project the Republicans winning back the majority with 51 or 52 seats.

538 has the Republicans 99.9% likely to flip West Virginia where they have a 38% lead and 91% likely to flip Montana with a 7.5% lead. This gets them to 51, so would be a huge upset to fall short.

No other seats are forecast to flip but the Democrats only have probabilities of 53% in Ohio, 69% in Wisconsin, 72% in Pennsylvania and 76% in Michigan. It is quite possible one of those four will flip also, making it 52 to 48.

While the Republicans will be glad for a majority, no matter how small, they should be doing much better. The electoral map is the most favourable in a generation and terrible candidate choices have allowed the Democrats to remain ahead in seats where they should lose, especially Arizona.

Governors

Only 11 of 50 Governors are up for election. The only toss up is New Hampshire which has the Republican candidate up by around 2%. If they retain this, 27 of 50 states will be governed by Republicans.

State Legislatures

Republicans control 57 state chambers, Democrats 41 and two are bipartisan.

10 chambers could flip. They are:

• Arizona House – held by Republicans 31/60
• Arizona Senate – held by Republicans 16/30
• Wisconsin Assembly – held by Republicans 64/99 (large boundary changes as gerrymander gone)
• New Hampshire House – held by Republicans 197/400 (388 filled)
• New Hampshire Senate – held by Republicans – 14/24
• Alaska House – bipartisan 23/40
• Michigan House – held by Democrats 56/100
• Pennsylvania House – held by Democrats 102/203
• Minnesota House – held by Democrats 70/134
• Minnesota Senate – held by Democrats 33/66 (1 vacancy)

Overall 28 state legislatures are controlled by Republican, 20 by Democrats and 2 are split.

If you take Governors into account, you have:

• Republican trifecta 23
• Democrat trifecta 17
• Split 10

The aim is to get the trifecta.

President

All six aggregators have Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. That doesn’t mean he will win them, just that ni matter which way you aggregate the polls, he is ahead. The leads of 0.7% to 2.3% are all within the margin of error and the normal polling error in a presidential election.

That gets Trump to 268 electoral votes – one short of a tie. Pennsylvania looks to be the critical state. He leads on average by 0.3%, ranging from 0.3% behind with one aggregator to 0.7% ahead with another. This is the state to watch.

Michigan and Wisconsin have Harris ahead by 0.9% and 0.4%. Still very close. Trump could win all seven swing states – as could Harris.

Four of the six sites have Trump forecast to win 287 to 251. One has him 297 to 241, and one has Harris 270 to 268.

In terms of probability, Trump’s chances range from 49.8% to 53.4%. This is as close to a toss up as you can get.

It will all come down to which demographics turnout better than the polls predicted.

This is the final update, unless there is a November surprise. I’ll have a live-blog from midday on Wednesday.

The Taxpayers’ Union said:

Te Pāti Māori MP Debbie Ngarewa-Packer managed to spend $39,209 on flights over just three months! And, thanks to some social media investigation work, it was evident that rather than flying to Hamilton, Ms Ngarewa-Packer had been serving constituents holidaying in Hawaii on your dollar.

We asked for more details – it’s taxpayer money after all – BUT were told by Parliamentary Services to get lost!

I don’t know if the Hawaii trip was paid for by taxpayers, but it would explain the $39,000 spending on flights in just 13 weeks.

This is the social media post that has the TU wondering if this is the cause of much of the $39,000 bill. Looks like a hard working trip.

So WCC after years of appalling satisfaction ratings from residents has decided that they best way forward is to stop asking residents if they are happy with the Council!

The conventional wisdom based on the polls is Trump is favoured to win the election. But a new poll out in Iowa has shocked the status quo assumptions.

The poll for the Des Moines Register has Harris ahead of Trump by 3% – 47% to 44% in Iowa, driven by a surge in female support for Harris.

In September the same poll had Trump ahead by 47% to 43% and in June Trump was 50% to 34% for Biden.

Breakdowns are:

• Men: Trump +14%
• Women: Harris +20%
• Under 35s: Harris +2%
• 35 – 54: Trump +8%
• 55+: Harris +12%
• Rural: Trump +20%
• Towns: Trump +9%
• Suburbs: Harris +23%
• Cities: Harris +28%
• Republicans: Trump +84%
• Democrats: Harris +97%
• Independents: Harris +7%
• 2020 Trump voters: Trump +85%
• 2020 Biden voters: Harris +89%
• 2020 non voters: Harris +3%

Now this is only one poll, and all pollsters can have an outlier poll., It may well be an outlier, and all kudos goes to Anne Selzer for publishing an outlier, as it is suspected many US polling firms herd their polls towards the average in the final weeks.

Selzer’s Iowa poll is regarded as very very credible by professionals, as she has often published polls seen as outliers, which turned out to be very accurate. She has been polling Iowa since 1987, so for 37 years.

Their record is:

• 2020: Final poll Trump +7%, Result Trump +8%
• 2016: Final poll Trump +7%, Result Trump +9%
• 2012: Final poll Obama +5%, Result Obama +6%

Also in 2008 she was the only pollster to predict Obama beating Clinton in the primary, and has often had Senate polls which have benefited outliers to other polls, but proven accurate.

So if this was any other pollster in any other state, you would almost ignore it. And it is more than possible the poll will be wrong. It is almost unthinkable that Trump will lose a state by 3% which he won by 8% in 2020. But it is quite possible Selzer has picked up a surge of support for Harris by women voters, than has not been reflected elsewhere.

It will be a fascinating election night on Wednesday.

Graham Adams writes:

The news early this month that a Pakeha patient asked not to be treated by Asian staff at Auckland’s North Shore Hospital and that the hospital complied was quickly and roundly condemned by the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists and health-worker unions. Many of the public, too, criticised the patient’s request as blatant racism.

While the code of consumers’ rights states, “Every consumer has the right to express a preference as to who will provide services and have that preference met where practicable”, the clause is presumably intended to resolve individual personality clashes between patients and the nurses and doctors looking after them, not a blanket refusal to be treated by a swathe of ethnic groups coming under the umbrella term of “Asian”.

The request was blatant racism, and I think the hospital should have told the patient that if he doesn’t like the race of his medical staff, he is welcome to go elsewhere.

What went unremarked in the furore, however, is that the idea that patients might want to have medical staff who look like them and whom they feel comfortable with is officially sanctioned at the highest levels of the health system. Both Auckland and Otago medical schools run extensive race-based, affirmative-action programmes to do exactly that.

It’s an interesting point. The rationale is that patients may feel more comfortable with someone of their own ethnicity.

If a patient asked for a doctor of a specific ethnicity, as opposed to a doctor not of a specific ethnicity, would that also be unacceptable?

There has been some discussion that NZ may follow other countries with the dominant major parties fading over time, to be replaced by more extreme ones. I thought it would be useful to look at the combined vote share for National and Labour under MMP.

• 1996: 62%
• 1999: 69%
• 2002: 62%
• 2005: 80%
• 2008: 79%
• 2011: 75%
• 2014: 72%
• 2017: 81%
• 2020: 76%
• 2023: 65%

I don’t see a trend there. The 2023 result was greater than the first three MMP elections. It is quite possible support for the two major parties will never get back to high 70s, but that is not to say it will drop further.

Kemi Badenoch has been elected the 19th leader of the UK Conservative Party. She is the 4th woman and 2nd non-white to lead the party, while UK Labour have had 19 white male leaders in a row. This of course has not stopped a Labour MP calling her a white supremacist in blackface!

Here’s some facts on Badenoch:

1. Her name is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke and she married Hamish Badenoch, hence her name of (Olu)Lemi Badenoch
2. She is 44, making her the 4th youngest leader
3. She was born in London, but lived outside the UK in Nigeria and the US until she was 16
4. She has a Master of Engineering degree
5. She gained a law degree while working as a software engineer
6. She voted for Brexit
7. She has been an MP for only seven years
8. Has has been Secretary of State for International Trade and Business & Trade
9. She cites economist Thomas Sowell as a major influence
10. She is a strong opponent of critical race theory
11. She is a gender-critical feminist
12. She once said 5% to 10% of civil servants are leak and agitate against Ministers, and should be in prison
13. She has three children, aged from five to 12.