Nuking Iran

The NZ Herald can relax – the US is not going to nuke Iran.

It’s the job of the Pentagon to have scenarios available. This doesn’t mean they are being “considered”. There’s probably a scenario on how to take over New Zealand should Keith Locke ever be made Minister of Defence. Doesn’t mean it’s a realistic option being considered.

Having said that some sort of military strike against Iran in the next five years is more than possible. It won’t be nuclear (nuking a site to stop nukes being built is beyond a bad look) but Iran quite simply will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

I think the chance of military action within five years is around 30%. Only 10% chance from the US though – the other 20% being Israel. For the US a nuclear armed Iran is a major hassle. For Israel it is a potential death sentence.