National MPs read this

I recommend that all National MPs browse this post by Jordan Carter on Labour’s plans for a fourth term.

Jordan points out that four major factors in voter dis-satisfaction in 2005 will probably not be there in 2008:

*a very large budget surplus
* simmering angst on Treaty issues
* a “moral backlash” of a sort due to e.g. civil unions, prostitution law reforms, etc
* poor government attempts to engage the public in our issues

I suspect item 4 will still be there but agree the huge budget surplus will be much reduced, the Treaty deadlines bill will reduce the simmer and the moral issues will fade.

What this means is that it will be fatal for National to think hey we got within 2% last time and they are a third term Government, so lets just cruise as we can’t lose.

The major issues of 2005 will be diminished in 2008. Thus National needs to create and gain credibility on a new set of issues if they want to not be spending twelve years in opposition. And one can’t do this at the last minute. To some degree the outcome of 2008 will be decided in 2006.