One down, two to go

Sir Malcolm Rifkind has withdrawn from the contest for UK Conservative Party Leader. He had no chance of winning, but this makes the first MPs ballot far more crucial now.

You see everyone expected Rifkind to be eliminated first, and this would reveal the actual votes for the other four. This would then allow tactical voting to start.

Now assuming Davis is at no risk of being eliminated, then either Cameron, Fox or Clarke will be eliminated on Tuesday. And no-one really knows who it will be. Declared support is Davis 65, Cameron 29, Clarke 22 and Fox 15. However the 25 or so cornerstone MPs (hard right) are yet to declare (my pick is mainly go for Fox) and also MPs lie, so the first ballot will be fascinating.

Very broadly Clarke and Cameron are seen as being on the left (in fact Cameron isn’t – he is a moderniser but not a leftie) and Davis and Fox on the right. So if Clarke drops out almost all his support would go to Cameron. If Cameron failed at the first hurdle though, then not all of his would go to Clarke.

If Fox drops out this will make Davis unassailable for the MPs ballot, and the next round will be Clarke vs Cameron effectively to see who will go against him to the members vote.

David Cameron has just picked up the endorsement of Deputy Leader Michael Ancram and Theresa May, a former party chairman, so still has some useful momentum.