A conference which counted

What a difference a great speech and a mediocre speech at a conference can make.

A Sunday Times poll of 750 UK Conservative Party members (they all get to elect the next Leader) has shown in just a couple of weeks, a huge swing.

David Davis dropped from 30% to 14% while David Cameron has gone from 16% to 39%. That is a huge movement.

Ken Clarke is 2nd at 26% (David in fact is just 1% ahead of 4th place getter Liam Fox) but he has a very high 40% of members saying he definitely should not be Leader.

Most members want the two candidates they get to vote on to be David Cameron and Ken Clarke. However unlikely there will not be at least one candidate from the right – Davis or Fox.

With more members saying they would vote for Clarke ahead of Davis, this could lead to some of his support crumbling to Fox, as many of the right faction just want anyone who can stop Clarke.

I would not be surprised if one got a Fox vs Cameron decision to go to the members. The only certainty at this stage thought is Sir Malcolm Rifkind will be first candidate eliminated as he has only one MP publicly backing him at this stage.