One News Colmar Brunton Poll

It is 13 days before the election and tonight’s One News Colmar Brunton Poll has confirmed the other recent polls that National now has a significant lead. It is 8% in this poll.

Worth nothing that it looks like some of this poll was still before last Monday’s treaty policy announcement and also most of it before Helen got an Air NZ pilot suspended.

The poll results are shown below, with the change from two weeks ago in brackets:

National 46% (+6)
Labour 38% (-5)
Maori 2% (+1)
ACT 1% (-1)
NZ First 5% (nc)
United Future 1% (nc)
Green 6% (-1)

Assuming that Turia, Dunne and Anderton hold their seats, the seat allocation in a Parliament based on this poll would be (change from current Prlt in brackets)

National 56 (+29)
Labour 46 (-5)
Maori 2 (+1)
ACT 0 (-9)
NZ First 6 (-7)
United Future 2 (-6)
Green 7 (-2)
Progressive 1 (-1)

A Labour led Government is all but impossible here. You would need a Labour-NZ First-Green-Progressive-Maori coalition.

If NZ First do not make it and they were just under 5% in the raw results, then the seat allocation would be”

Nat 59
United 2
Labour 49
Prog 1
Green 7
Maori 2

Again the only way Labour could form a Government is a Labour-Green-Maori-Progressive-United coalition.

Now there are still 13 days to go, and a lot can happen during this time. But when National were 8% behind Labour, Frog Blog said there must be full-scale panic within National. Taking Frog Blog’s own sayings, I presume there must be full-scale panic amongst Labour and the Greens.

And Jordan who has an uncanny ability to claim every poll ever published is good news for Labour has said this about the last week of polls:

“What a week in hell for National’s first week. And what a delicious one for Labour”

“So an interesting result. Once again, nothing to complain about”

“The fact that the combined Labour/Green vote only fell 1%, and the combined National/NZ First vote only rose 2, in the wake of the “king hit”, is wonderful news.”

“A very very good poll, all things considered.”

We look forward to seeing the spin on this poll.