Fairfax Polling in Wellington

It is interesting to try and reconcile two recent Fairfax Polls. Their poll published on Saturday showed Labour ahead of National by 19% in Wellington Central on the party vote.

However’s today nationwide poll has a breakdown by region and has National ahead of Labour by 1% in Wellington.

Now these are two polls done by the same polling company and presumably the same methodology.

Now one was in Wellington Central and one has a breakdown for Wellington, which I presume is Mana, Ohariu-Belmont, Wellington Central, Rongotai, Hutt South and Rimutaka.

But of these seats WC was 2nd highest last election. Hutt South had a 27% Labour-National gap in 2002, Rimutaka 30%, Rongotai 28%, Mana 30%, Ohariu-Belmont 12% and Wellington Central 17%.

So if National is leading by 1% in Wellington generally, the chance it is 19% behind in Wellington Central is almost zero. Basically it would be saying that National is actually ahead of Labour in Rongotai, Mana, Rimutaka and Hutt South.

So as reluctant as I am to criticise a public poll (and note I made no criticism at the time, even though I was very very surprised by the results), I have to conclude that the two polls by Fairfax are incompatible, and the Wellington Central one looks suspect.

Having said that polls can very much be self fulfilling prophecies, so as usual I am not making any claims about results. But as I said, the two Fairfax polls really contradict themselves about what is happening in Wellington unless you believe National is 19% behind in Wellington Central, but leading the party vote in Mana!!