Armstrong and James

John Armstrong at the end of today’s column says:

Labour is making little secret that its private polling has the party trailing National

So presumably their attacks on any poll which doesn’t show them in the lead as “rogue polls” is just for public consumption?

Meanwhile Colin James has a bob both ways (something he has been good at this election 🙂 by saying his instinct is that “Clark will make it over the line – but never in 12 elections as a political journalist have I been less confident of my instinct”.

James makes the point, which I have also made, is that “if Brash wins: Clark will have lost the unlosable election. An economy going nicely, jobs plentiful, real wages rising and high house prices should have got her home in a canter.”

Add to this that last election National got decimated. People consider a 5% – 10% margin a landslide win, and Labour had a 20% margin. To lose a 20% margin while running a booming economy and having the lowest unemployment in the world speaks volumes about how pissed off people have got with the Government. It is nothing short of a minor miracle that we enter the final week with National in the lead.

If Labour’s leaked polling is correct, then National is set to win more seats than Labour (unless Labour has a last minute smear, which if so will appear Wednesday). However they may squeak in thanks to, ironically, the Maori Party who look likely to have overhang seats. Thus one may have the centre-right win the most votes but the centre-left having more MPs.

I’m making no predictions, other than boy is it going to be close!