And the lead changes again

In a SST poll take mainly or totally after the Exclusive Brethren saga, National has actually increased its support to take a 7% lead over Labour.

As I commented on the Wellington Central poll, there is often a disconnect between issues that are important to the political activists, media and civil servants in Wellington and the rest of the country.

On this poll National are well placed to form a Government, and a relatively stable one being National/United Future with confidence and supply from NZ First. A Labour-led Government would need support from five or six parties.

It is a fascinating election to follow, and predict, as there are six key issues which may determine who is in Government, being:

* Will National or Labour gain more votes?
* Will NZ First make 5% and/or win Tauranga?
* Will the Greens make 5%?
* Will ACT wil Epsom?
* How many overhang seats, if any, will the Maori Party have?
* Will Jim Anderton’s seat of Wigram be an overhang seat?

So it is a brave person who predicts a Government at this stage.

But anyway as Miss Ten texted to me this morning, a very nice poll to wake up to for my birthday 🙂

UPDATE: The Herald on Sunday also has a poll out showing Labour in the lead. The poll is not online (HOS for some reason never put their lead story online). SST has a sample of 540 and has Nats ahead by 7% and HoS has a sample of 400 and Labour ahead by 4%.

At some stage I think I may have to dig out and blog my 1998 memo to the PM and Ministers on why different polls can show such wildly different results.