SST Poll

The SST has a poll out today, and like the NZ Herald it shows a narrowing of the gap – to only 4%. Individual poll results do not always mean a lot, but trends are all important and this confirms a helpful trend.

The results are:

Labour 40% (-3)
National 36% (+1)
NZ First 10% (+3)
ACT 3% (-1)
Green 6% (+0)
United 2% (+0)
Maori 1% (-1)
Progressive 1% (+1)

If one assumes Maori Party win five seats, and Dunne, Anderton and Peters hold their seats then seat allocation would be:

Labour 50 (+0)
National 45 (+18)
NZ First 13 (+0)
Green 7 (-2)
Maori 5 (+4)
United 3 (-5)
Progressive 1 (-1)
ACT 0 (-9)

Total 124 (+4)

A Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive Government (the horror the horror) would have 63/124 seats – the smallest possible majority.

More likely would be a straight Labour/NZF Government on 63 seats.

A National/United/NZF combination would have 61 seats – just short.

It’s looking to get interesting!