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January 21, 2005 9:38am by David Farrar

Inauguration Speech

In Bush’s inauguration speech, Freedom gets mentioned 27 times and liberty 15 times so I liked it.

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Trocadero

Budget deficit – record and growing not mentioned
( you would have to add a couple of % to the GDP figure since the states are running huge deficits as well)
Trade deficit $600 billion and growing
social Security – crisis doesnt exist it is fine, US taxpayers pay 12.4% payroll tax into trustfund ( which funds government borrowing), of the first $80,000 or so. This is a flat rate, with income taxes on top of this which for a single person can be 25% at $75000. Then there is capital gains tax, estate/gift duty. Then you have state/local taxes ( even a city council can levy an income tax which they do in New York City- 35,000 police dont come cheap NZ’s 4 million would need to increase police from 7000 to 17000 to match)
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January 21, 2005 11:29am
Kimble

“Budget deficit – record and growing not mentioned”

Budgets arent the usual subject matter for the innaugral speech. Save that for the State of the Nation. BTW the Budget deficit is actually shrinking.

A trade deficit in and of itself is not a great concern. Having either a trade deficit or surplus is economically neutral. What the deficit means is that they are buying more than they are selling in world markets. This is balanced by foreign investment in the US.

Clinton acknowledged a looming Social Security crisis, and almost all Democrats agreed with him. Were they wrong then or now? Can you explain how the proportion of workers to retirees shrinking ISNT evidence of an eventual crisis?

The social security problem in the States pails in comparison to the problems faced in Europe. With pensions and healthcare entitlements making up a much larger proportion of the budget in places like Germany, France and Sweden, the burden of an ever increasing average age will be felt more acutely there than the US methinks.
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January 21, 2005 11:55am
Kimble

Adjusted for inflation, the budget deficit is high but not the highest. One of Reagans deficits was higher, but he turned that around. As a percentage of GDP Bush’s deficit isnt remarkable either. What “records” are you talking about? Is it purely nominal (which would be quite silly really, i mean, just because bread costs more now than it did 30 years ago doesnt mean that it is more expensive).
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January 21, 2005 12:15pm
trocadero

Bush doesnt even count the cost of the Iraq war as part of the deficit- since it is a supplemental
request but at $100 billion is about 20% of the deficit- nice little lie here.
Budget deficit shrinking ??
Only because they are ‘estimating’ revenue to grow very fast , ACTUAL figures show Bush deficit is higher every year in office( tax cuts reduced revenue and spending grew with massive increase in farm subsidies and defence spending)
US is main example of social credit policies in action- hold interest rates artificially low (1.25%) and print money with massive deficits financed by …China !!, the dollar is falling as well no suprise !! again not mentioned by Bush
How many times was freedom mentioned again?
The guy cant lie straight in bed
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January 21, 2005 12:32pm
Lloyd

But it’s hard work trocadero. Why can’t you just recognise that. If you say it, it must be. That’s what faith based politics is all about. Those of us down here in the reality based community will never get it.
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January 21, 2005 12:43pm
Dim

Wow – freedom and libery! Really brilliant stuff. I mean, no Politicians ever resorted to waving THOSE words around as empty rhetorical meaningless bullshit phrases before! The man must really mean what he says!
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January 21, 2005 12:51pm
testarossa

Lets count next AG Gonzale’s evasions, as the Washington Post did.
Milbank even counts up Gonzales’ written evasions: “I am not at liberty to disclose” at least 10 times; “I do not recall” or “I have no recollection” six times; I did not “conduct a search” seven times; “I am not at liberty [to discuss certain matters]” 10 times; and “I have no present knowledge” seven times.
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January 21, 2005 1:06pm
Kimble

The CBO is known for habitually underestimating growth in revenue.

There is no such thing as “artificially low” interest rates.

The falling dollare again is economically neutral. I infer your meaning in your posts to be “rising dollar? Yay we are winning! Falling dollar, boo we are losing?” I hope I am not doing you a disservice and you actually understand the economic principles behind exchange rates. Please let me know.

Also, so what if China is paying for the deficit? Is this a human rights issue for you? If the rates are at record lows, wouldnt that make it more affordable to service loans to pay for the budget deficit?

The deficit is higher every year Bush has been in office in large part due to the increased military spending. If, Lloyd, you agree with the little Trotskyite, how do reconcile your suggestion that the US invade Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to install “dogmatic christian theocratised democracies”.
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January 21, 2005 1:18pm
Kimble

These sorts of speeches are always emotive and wishy-washy. You will find no policy statement in them, at best they are a rallying call, at worst they are mindless internationalist drivel (Carters innaugral speech anyone?).

Discuss DPFs counting of words all you like, but for gods sake dont criticise Bush’s speech for not being political enough.
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January 21, 2005 1:26pm
Cathy

I have been in America (LA and Las Vegas) for the past two weeks.

Let’s just say the enthusiasm for this event among Americans is about a minus 20 on the richter scale.

They could not care less.

In fact I think more will watch the opening shows of American Idol series 4.

I could not stomach more than five minutes of the speech. I switched to ESPN.

God bless America!
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January 21, 2005 1:40pm
trocadero

CBO underestimates revenue,
OMB underestimates deficit, true congress votes on this and adds extra but its tiny in the overall amount.

There is no such thing as “artificially low” interest rates.

Oh please, are you saying 1% base rate with a budget deficit of 4% is in sync! These rates were set by a government bureaucrat- so are not market forces
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January 21, 2005 1:44pm
Kimble

The “Fed” rate is the interest rate at which banks lend money (overnight) to each other. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee not a government bureaucrat. It sets the base and market forces apply from then on.

But lets leave that for the time being, what exactly is your concern regarding interest rates? Surely having rates low during a period of budget deficit (the most common state of budgets this century) is a good thing? Should rates be higher? Low rates stimulate the economy, are you worried about inflation? Are you worried that the US Government wont be able to borrow enough money to cover its bills? Are you worried that the Chinese investment in low return US Government stock will limit domestic investment and suffocate their booming economy?
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January 21, 2005 3:08pm
Bryce

“Freedom gets mentioned 27 times and liberty 15 times so I liked it.”

Fantastic! No need to analyze what he actually said, then.
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January 21, 2005 4:51pm
trocadero

Another budget trick on top of the ‘missed iraq war spending’ of 100billion, allthough this one has been used by other Presidents but if you are comparing with other countries does matter.
The Social security payroll tax (12.4%) brings in about $140 billion MORE this year than it pays out but all the government Social security payouts and income are included in the budget, so the the $140 billion isnt counted as part of the deficit EVEN THOUHGH IT HAS TO BE PAID BACK WITH INTEREST to the SS Trust fund.
so that real US deficit is closer to $250 billion higher than the $450 billion that is the ‘official figure’. This doesnt even cover the states and local councils who cover police, education etc which are a central government responsibility in most countries.
As regards ‘low’ interest rates, so you are a social credit supporter then Kimble, as you say the Fed rate sets the base and then market forces apply the risk premium above that. Vern Cracknell couldnt put it better.
Didnt a social credit guy beat Don Brash in his first attempt at a safe national seat
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January 21, 2005 5:13pm
Xavier

So because he *mentioned* Freedom and Liberty (i.e. lipservice to them – something that Bush is exceedingly good at) he get’s a thumbs up? Despite the fact that The Patriot Act and The Patriot Act II are anti-freedom, anti-liberty and anti-liberal (in the classical, libertarian sense). Come on David, you’re not THAT shallow.
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January 21, 2005 5:41pm
phil u.

hi y’all. what i found mildly disturbing about the cliched,yet scary, drivel that was bushes speech was that there were 21 rewrites of that particular opus.
as an aside, did anyone else see the photo of the bush clan in the nz herald? i searched the faces for signs of tainting by the cultural and racial mix that is the united states. but no, it was crackerville all the way; not quite extras from deliverance; but give it another couple of generations.
ah! 4 more years.
phil u.
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January 21, 2005 9:15pm
stef

how many times did god mentioned?
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January 21, 2005 9:17pm
Dave Christian

“Freedom & liberty” sound great if you consider yourself to be one of those who will be given the freedom to impose your choices onto other people. GWB is fairly clear about who will get their way and who will get slapped down if they stand up for themselves. In the mouths of anyone other than libertarians, “Freedom & liberty” = “I have the power; Screw you.”
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January 23, 2005 12:27pm

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