Maori Poll Margins of Error

In the NZ Herald Helen attacks the poll showing Labour behind in thge Maori seats.

Let’s take a look at her claims one by one:

1) “”What you are seeing though on the party vote, and you may see on the electorate vote, is people who have never voted Labour… coming in behind this particular party,”

Now in this poll Labour has 23.3% on the party vote. The previous poll they had 34.8% so that is an clear drop in support. Also at the last election Labour got 54% of the party vote in the Maori seats, so any way you look at it, Helen is wrong.

2) “If you divided fewer than 600 people by seven (Maori seats) you don’t get a statistically valid sample. It’s absolute nonsense,”

Here Helen is on stronger ground. 598 respondents divided by seven seats is only 85 per seat and that is a massive 10.9% margin of error.

However in In Tai Tokerau the Maori Party has 42 per cent (10.7% margin of error) against Labour’s 20.5% (8.8% margin of error) and Waiariki 38.2% (10.6% moe) against Labour’s 18.6% (8.5% moe).

So in those two seats, even with such a small sample, it looks grim for Labour. In the other four Labour held seats, it is not possible to conclude much.