The no bang budget

Another post budget poll shows Labour still trailling National. The NZ Herald has a large 8% gap.

The party vote results and likely seats in Parliament are below:

National 44.0% 59 seats
Labour 36.1% 48 seats
NZ First 5.6% 7 seats
Green 4.7% 0 seats
United 2.4% 3 seats
Maori 2.4% 3 seats
ACT 2.0% 0 seats
Progressive 0% 1 seat

Labour could only form a Government with support from NZ First, United Future, Maori Party and (optionally) Progressives.

This is based on Anderton, Peters, Dunne and Turia all holding their seats.

If ACT and the Greens won an electorate seat then the distribution would be:

National 54
Labour 45
NZ First 7
Green 6
United 3
Maori 3
ACT 2
Progressive 1

National and NZ First could just form a Government by themselves if the Greens and ACT secured representation.