Picking Polls

The latest Hard News post has quite a bit on polls.

Strangely nothing at all on the TVNZ poll which has National 11% ahead of Labour.

But we did hear a lot about US polls. To quote:

“As they are on both coasts, it would seem, but they’re blaming Bush: a New York State poll finds John Kerry early 20 points ahead of Bush. Support for Bush is very much on the slide in California and amongst Latinos too, but remains roughly equal to Kerry’s nationwide.”

But I went to check these at the source. Yes in New York Kerry leads Bush by 19%. But in the 2000 election Gore beat Bush there by 25%, so Bush is 6% better off.

And in California Bush trails Kerry by 10%. Again in 2000 Bush lost by 12% so another improvement in a very liberal state. This pust the polls into context.

USA Today has a story on other state polls, indicating they are good news for Bush.

In Maryland Kerry is ahead by 5% only, and Gore won by 17%. New Jersey which had Gore 16% ahead is now a tie. And in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Bush is ahead, and he lost it to Gore by 5%. Also Bush is ahead in New Hampshire, another state Gore won in.

A good summary is the Washington Dispatch which projects the Electoral College on the basis of state polls. It currently is 317 Bush to 221 Kerry.