Latest Poll

Helen Clark will not be happy with the latest poll results. Not only is the gap Labour has behind National increased to 11%, but she is now only 1% ahead of Don Brash as preferred PM. Historically PMs tend to be at least double the Leader of the Opposition.

The One News poll results are

National 48% (-1% from last poll)
Labour 37% (-2%)
ACT 2% (+0%)
NZF 5% (+1%)
UNF 2% (+0%)
Green 5% (+3%)

Using the St Lague formula, this would give an election result (change from 2002 election in brackets) of:

National 60 (+23)
Labour 46 (-6)
ACT 0 (-9)
NZF 6 (-7)
UNF 2 (-6)
Green 6 (-3)
PCP 1 (-1)

Preferred PM has

Brash 31%
Clark 32%
Peters 7%