National at 49%

The Goverment will be in despair. Despite all its best attempts to distract NZers by blowing up the atheist/marriage comments and the red herring of a Treaty Inquiry, the public are showing they can see through the smokescreen.

Tonight’s One Network News/Colmar Brunton poll results are (change from Feb 2004 poll in brackets):

National 49% (+4)
Labour 39% (+1)
ACT 2% (+1)
NZ First 4% (-2)
United Future 2% (+0)
Greens (2% (-3)

In terms of seats in Parliament, this would produce (change from election in brackets):

National 62 (+35)
Labour 50 (-2)
ACT 0 (-9)
NZ First 5 (-8)
United Future 3 (-5)
Greens 0 (-9)
Progressives 1 (-1)

This is assuming Peters, Dunne and Anderton retain their seats.

So on this poll National would have 62 seats out of 121 and be able to form a majority Government.

The poll also had Brash up 5% as preferred PM to 29%.

There was 69% support for an inquiry into the Treaty but that is an apple pie and motherhood question where people will say yes, even if sceptical of any good that may come from it.