The Election in Brazil

I am married to a gorgeous lady – Luciana Soares Ramos – who came to NZ to live 18 years ago.

Two years ago we traveled to Brazil to meet and spend time with her parents. Her mom is in her late 80s and her dad is 95. Both are extremely astute and policially engaged.

Brazil only returned to democracy in 1985 after 21 years of military rule. While in the country we chose to watch this series about exposing corruption under “Lula”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mechanism_(TV_series)

As most will know, yesterday was the Presidential run-off election in Brazil. All polls indicated a narrow win for Flavio Bolsanaro.

From a economics statisticians point of view – far more significant was https://polymarket.com/ leading up to the day. With approx. US$70m being wagered you would expect the people staking their money to do their research. On the day before the election Bolsonaro was favoured strongly at 81%.

As soon as a voting extention was announced from a 5pm close to a 7pm close – the numbers flipped.

The result has already been challenged.

Luciana operates accommodation for international tertiary level students in Auckland. The one positive she notes is that she can expand her business and more students seek a better education outside of Brazil.

As an aside – Polymarket has Luxon only at 51% to become PM. My 5 cents worth is that the 300,000 not enrolled and the approach of young and disengaged voters on the day … would make that a very good bet.

[email protected]

What to do about overhang?

As I have said on multiple occasions, I regard any attempts to deliberately engineer overhang seats as semi-undemocratic. MMP is designed to let the bloc with the most votes to form Government. Overhang strategies undermine the concept of equality of suffrage where all votes have equal power, and lead to outcomes that are unproportional.

There is only one party that is seeking an overhang strategy – Te Pāti Māori. They are unique in that they are actively discouraging people from giving them their party vote. All other parties are working hard to gain party votes.

There are activists who are promoting an overhang strategy on the right. This is not new. I have had people propose a variant of this since 1996.

The question is what to do is overhang results in a government that received fewer votes than the opposition?

I have considered whether the two major party leaders should refuse to form a Government if it is only possible due to overhang. The problem is that you can’t ignore the facts you actually have those overhang MPs (if there are any). You would have to have some of your MPs voting to keep a Government you oppose in power, and that simply isn’t feasible.

A gallery journalist has suggested a second election should be called. That would be ridiculous though. It would cost a huge amount of money and could produce the same outcome.

A sensible thing for any Prime Minister who only holds the job due to overhang would be to treat their mandate as somewhat limited, and where possible try to only pass laws when they can get some support from at least one non-Govt party. So that could mean PM Hipkins getting support from National, ACT or NZ First; or PM Luxon getting support from Labour or Opportunity. This would only apply if overhang is responsible for the Government being possible.

The focus for me is how to prevent overhang in future, so that a Government is only possible if it wins more votes than the opposition parties in Parliament. There are four main ways to do that.

  1. Increase the size of Parliament. If you had say 150 MPs, 80 list and 70 electorate, then overhang is far far less likely to occur. But the public won’t want a larger Parliament (ironically overhang will deliver that anyway)
  2. Change the ratio of electorate to list seats. If you had say 70 list seats and 50 electorates, overhang would be far far less likely to occur. However some already huge seats like West Coast – Taman would become even larger. Also unpopular.
  3. If a party gains more electorate seats than its party vote share, then other parties get additional list seats so the proportions are proportional to the party vote. This would remove the incentive for overhang, but could result in a larger Parliament when you get accidental overhang. If TPM wins four seats and it is entitled to two, Parliament would have to almost double in size.
  4. The German solution where if a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote share, then their most marginally won seats goes to the second place getter. This would make the electorate’s choice secondary to the party vote which would be less than ideal, but is still the best solution. It would 100% ensure all parties go all out for the party vote, so TPM would not try to repeat their overhang strategy, and people could no longer advocate that not giving your party vote to National actually helps National.

My hope is that there are no overhang seats, or if there are they don’t determine who can form Government. And that Parliament after the election gets a bipartisan consensus to amend the Electoral Act in line with option 4.

Love the spin

Had to laugh at the spin by the Ministry of Justice about the new digital court management system. After Law News reported on it, they sent in an op ed which claimed:

LawNews’ September 30 article stated that the MoJ considered scrapping [the programme] in February 2025. This is incorrect.

Law News points out:

a workshop was conducted on February 4 that year to consider five options for the programme’s future. The fifth option was “Change to a Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) solution and change provider”. In other words, sack DXC and scrap the work done so far in favour of adopting a ready-made solution from another supplier. Ditching the work done so far was not only considered, it was actually ranked second best of the five options

The MOJ op ed continues:

The LawNews article also states that there have been budget blowouts. The programme’s cost profile has evolved over time, reflecting increased certainty as the programme progresses from procurement, through design and build. It is why contingency is part of the funding. Te Au Reka continues to operate within its financial approvals.

The statement “The cost profile has evolved over time” should win a prize for spin of the year.

Law News points out:

Te Au Reka is operating within its financial approvals, but those approvals needed to be increased by 15% in April 2025 because costs were higher than originally envisaged.

Inconvenient facts.

To be fair a 15% cost blowout is fairly minor when it comes to Govt IT projects, but one shouldn’t still try to spin it as not being a blowout.

Stupid or deceitful?

The Herald reports:

The Green Party has lodged a formal complaint against the Sensible Sentencing Trust (SST), accusing the lobby group of impersonating the party with its latest election attack ads. …

The party said the SST was a Taxpayers’ Union “astroturf group” – that is, a fake grassroots organisation supporting the same cause.

I don’t know whether to conclude whether Chloe is stupid, ignorant or just deceitful?

The SST was established in 2001 – 12 years before the Taxpayers’ Union. Now Chloe was only seven years old at the time, so maybe she missed the huge impact they had on law and order issues back then.

And here’s what Wikipedia says about their support:

Membership quickly grew to 135,000 by 2002. In addition, the Trust attracted 3,000 donors and chapters were established across New Zealand. …

By 2009, McVicar claimed that the Trust had over 150,000 members

The left hate grassroots activism on the right. They always claim it is fake and astroturf to the point that the term has become as meaningless as claims of genocide. The reality is that pretty much every group they hate such as Taxpayers’ Union, Free Speech Union, Hobson’s Pledge, Sensible Sentencing Trust, Groundswell etc has a supporter list bigger than the combined membership of Labour and the Greens.

UPDATE: The SST has responded:

The Sensible Sentencing Trust has slammed Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick and her party for dismissing New Zealand’s longest-standing and largest victims’ rights organisation as an “astroturf” group or a spin-off of a taxpayer group.

Trust spokesperson Louise Parsons said the claim is either ignorant or deliberately deceitful.

“The Sensible Sentencing Trust was founded in 2001 – more than a decade before the Taxpayers’ Union even existed. Within a year we had 135,000 members. By 2009 that number was over 150,000. We are the organisation built by and for the families of murder victims, rape survivors, and those left shattered by serious violence. Swarbrick’s slur is a cheap attempt to erase those voices.”

This is a good time to remind people the Green Party policy is:

  • End life sentences for murder
  • End preventive detention for repeat paedophiles
  • End prison for parole breaches
  • End prison for bail breaches

General Debate 27 October 2026

Is voting Bishop in Hutt South a ‘two-for-one’ deal?

Last week on my post ‘Who might be an MP?‘ one reader commented: 

“Unless Labour, ACT, Green and NZF as well as National voters in the Hutt [South] electorate vote for Chris Bishop and party vote for their own parties then Chris Bishop may not make it back.”

There are two paths back into Parliament for Chris Bishop – a win in Hutt South, or the National Party having at least two list MPs. Both of these paths are looking far from certain right now.

Yet at number 12 on Labour’s list, Labour’s Hutt South candidate Ginny Anderson looks assured of a place in Parliament.

This leaves voters with a classic ‘two-for-one’ deal in Hutt South, where an Andersen win leaves the seat represented only by Andersen, while a Bishop win sees both Bishop and Andersen returned.

Whatever your politics, it’s hard to deny that Bishop has been a fierce and effective voice for the Hutt since he was first elected in 2014. He’s a hardworking and well-liked local MP despite a seriously heavy ministerial workload. I’ve never seen a more effective local MP in terms of what he does and achieves. Just reading his weekly newsletter often leaves me tried!

Bishop became the first ever National MP to win the previously safe Labour seat in 2017. The seat flipped back to Labour in 2020, despite Bishop outperforming National’s party vote by a staggering 41.59% (Bishop) to 21.99% (National). Bishop took back the seat in 2023 with a slim margin of just 1332 votes.

Bishop has beaten the odds before and I think there’s every reason to think he can do it again. I certainly hope so, because Hutt South deserves an MP like him.

UPDATE: Ani O’Brien has a great piece on Chris Bishop today, and how Parliament (not just National) would be much worse off without him.

Yes Minister is a documentary

Matthew Hooton reports:

They’re called the “bureaucratic priesthood” – powerful officials in Wellington who ministers must work with to deliver their promises but who think they, not democratically elected politicians, should be the judge of what the public wants and what it’s going to get.

The priesthood is only a minority of officials, according to a new study by the free-market New Zealand Initiative to be published after the election. It’s designed to help new ministers and MPs, on either side of the political divide, deal with barriers officials could put up to stop them doing what they have been elected to do.

Across officials surveyed for the study, about 30% appear to meet the Initiative’s “bureaucratic priesthood” definition. That includes those in operational roles who can’t really influence policy and whose jobs are more about serving the public directly.

More important are the 20% of policy advisors and their managers who apparently aren’t prepared to accept voters’ verdict two weeks from now, or the coalition agreements thrashed out afterwards. That suggests one in five of the most important mandarins don’t really support some of the most fundamental tenets of Westminster democracy.

This is a stunning finding. Now let’s be clear, 20% is a minority of public servants, but it is not a minuscule fraction. It is 1 in 5 policy advisors and managers.

It worries the Initiative that only 60% of those surveyed agreed with the statement that “because ministers are democratically elected, they should decide policy and tradeoffs”. That suggests two out of every five public servants think someone else should decide the elected government’s policies – presumably public servants themselves. Three out of five of those who write advice also think ministers aren’t as well suited as them to determine what the public wants.

This should be of huge concern to the next Government, regardless of who makes it up.

General Debate 26 October 2026

Enrolment has closed

Advance voting has started for the general election, and enrolment has closed. Left parties, supported by the media have been wailing about this being some sort of massive voter suppression device. This is nonsense, and here is what they never mention.

  • The deadline to enrol for the upcoming Victoria state election in Australia is 25 days before the election on 28 November
  • The deadline to enrol for the Tasmanian local government elections is 47 days before the last day to vote
  • The deadline to enrol for the last Australian Federal Election was 26 days before the election
  • The deadline to enrol for the 2026 UK election was 17 days before the elections and for the last general election was 16 days
  • The deadline to enrol before an Irish general election is 17 days

Has any media story reported the above? How does 13 days for NZ compare?

Also did you know you are legally required to enrol within 30 days of turning 18, and can enrol any time after your 17th birthday? You are liable for prosecution and a fine, if you do not enrol within one month. So every person still unenrolled, is actually in breach of the law.

Enrolment rates go up and down. The 2026 enrolment rate is currently the same as in 2017, and will probably exceed it.

An exception to the right to silence

Paul Goldsmith announced:

A re-elected National Government will make it a crime to remain silent and not disclose information relating to a child being murdered, National’s Justice spokesperson Paul Goldsmith says. 

“New Zealanders will remember numerous high-profile examples throughout our history where children have been brutally murdered, and Police have been unable to identify the attacker because people have chosen not to share critical information with them. 

“The right to remain silent is a fundamental principle, however, it should not be absolute when a child has lost their life and, for example, there are only three people in the house, but no one is talking. 

“If re-elected, National will make it an offence under the Crimes Act to not disclose information to the police, when a person has been present at a location where a child 12 years and under has been killed. We will work with legal experts to create an exception to the general right to silence only in exceptional circumstances, involving the death of a child.

“It will carry a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. It will apply when a child under 12 dies, and at the time of death, or leading up to the death, it is unequivocal that one or more adults were present.

People who murder children should be jailed. People shouldn’t be jailed for saying nothing. Those two concepts are in conflict. I think the acceptability of any policy would come down to how tightly they can define the offence so it is truly only in exceptional circumstances.

Of course what would be even better is if people don’t cover up for child murderers.

Guest Post: Gotta be reality

A guest post by a reader:

I remember the final time my father descended into madness.  It happened several times in my life.  The last time was when I was 24.

When it became clear he would slide completely into paranoid schizophrenia, I signed a committal order and watched the cops kick in both doors of the home I grew up in – they went in hard and fast.

“Where did you last see him?” They had asked, just after I signed the order and before they went in.

“In the kitchen,” was my solemn reply, scarcely believing what was happening.

“Are there knives around?”  They asked.

“Errr… It’s a kitchen…” After a pause, I then confirmed, “yes, there are knives”.  Hence the door kicking.

But I digress.

A few days before that, we had celebrated my younger brother’s 18th birthday at my parents’ house.  Dad was well on his way into madness by then, pacing back and forth in the lounge.  I was on one side of the room, my little brother on the other side, Dad pacing in the middle.  He was talking furiously. Not babbling, but not making much sense either.  I looked across at my brother and said “Happy birthday” and smiled.  It was a ridiculous situation.  To properly understand, you’d need to hear a few backstories: a childhood of police raids, drug use and chaos turned a corner when Mum and Dad quit heroin/methadone and petty crime.  My teenage years were more stable, albeit Dad traded being a drug addict for an alcoholic.  It was surreal that we were heading back into the chaos of madness again.

I vividly remember a phrase my dad repeated many times that night.

“Gotta, gotta, gotta be reality.  Is it reality? Is it?  IS IT?  HAHAHAAAAHAHHAH”

He was grappling to hold onto reality, trying to figure out what was real and what wasn’t.

But that phrase has always stuck with me.  It’s a lens that can be applied to many things in life. Learning to distinguish between what is real vs what you want, or fear to be real is enormously useful. 

I enjoy watching politics.  I’ve dabbled in policy – it was considerably harder than I realised!  Political parties have many policy ideas.  They sometimes SOUND amazing.  They are well intentioned.  The problem policies often encounter is rational human behaviour.  Reality.

There is an excellent series on “Unintended Consequences“.  It lists many examples of well-intentioned local or central government policies that resulted in completely opposite outcomes.  It’s pretty funny, but also sad.

Wealth taxes are a good example of unintended consequences. Your opinion on the merits of a wealth tax is irrelevant.  When a wealth tax is implemented, tax revenues decrease.  This is because people act rationally.  History proves it.  Many times.  It won’t work.

So when you evaluate the policies of the various political parties this election, spare a thought for the most likely outcome of those policies. A policy you like can be innovative, ideologically appealing, or compassionate.   

But in the end, for it to work, it’s gotta be reality.

[Try this for the Unintended Consequences link: https://reason.com/tag/unintended-consequences/ holy. mod]

General Debate 25 October 2026

Reflections from Repay the Risk on policing

By Lucy Rogers

I felt a sense of discomfort recently when in the comments section of a Good Oil post I wrote about the police someone referred to the police as a “big blue gang” or words to that effect. C’mon, guys. You know that’s unfair. While there are legitimate criticisms to be made of police tribalism, the police and the Mongrel Mob are not interchangeable institutions. Whatever one’s criticisms of policing, police officers perform essential public functions and often bear significant personal costs in doing so, and describing them as a gang does not recognise that distinction and the human cost of their work.

Over the past three years since my arrest I have made a serious effort to better understand how police see the world. Not being a police officer myself, I’m not sure I’m the best person to explain their perspectives: I think there would be significant value in a police officer writing a series of blog posts expositing that rather than me. However, officers have shared stories of their experiences in anecdotes shared for the Repay The Risk campaign for better police pay over the last few months which I found really interesting and thought were worth resharing.

An officer described how after a few years of being a serving police officer in small town New Zealand, every road junction or landmark accumulated different traumatic associations: fatal road crashes, suicides, homicides. Driving around off-duty meant constantly being triggered by old memories. I’m not sure that’s something a lot of Kiwis can relate to.

Another officer described being called out to investigate a woman’s disappearance at a rural property, only to find her decomposing corpse on the floor from where she had died some weeks earlier. The smell was obscene. There weren’t any cops in the surrounding area because it was rural, so he had to stay there for a few hours while backup arrived. When he was relieved by other officers, he was required to move on to the next job as if nothing had happened.

Other stories for example involve missing birthdays or Christmas dinners, or partners lying awake at night having heard on the radio that an officer was hurt elsewhere in the country, or hypervigilance in an officer’s own kitchen because it was hard to switch from work mode to family mode. One officer described regularly standing outside his front door in silence composing himself after work so that his family would get the best version of him when he came home.

A newbie officer described attending five sudden deaths on his first three days on the job. He went out expecting a routine day of speed training when he came across a car/ truck collision on a bridge. The truck had crushed the entire engine bay of the car into the front seats. The vehicle was hanging halfway off the bridge, one shift away from dropping 15 metres into the river below.

The car driver was dying and the officer could hear the death rattle. Meanwhile, the truck driver was sitting alone with his head in his hands at the end of the bridge. The officer walked over and sat beside him: no notebook, no statement, just presence. The truck driver explained that it was him or the other driver, and he had nowhere to go, and he had a family. Later, his dashcam told the truth: the car driver deliberately committed suicide by crossing the centre line.

Then came the next part: telling the parents of the teen driver. And then, before the shift was even over, he was called out to a suicide via hanging.

My feelings about the police are complicated, but at the end of the day cops are human beings. They pay a high price to play an important social function. I deeply appreciate their mahi (work), and I invite people who hate the police to think about what a society which abolished its police force would actually look like. While I am determined to make complainants’ perspectives known (and that is my priority given the power discrepancy between an organisation with a multi-billion dollar budget and complainants) the cops’ side is worth knowing too.

Having said that, none of this of course is intended for one moment to justify the actions of the likes of dishonest evil bastards like Senior Sergeant Vaughan Perry and Inspector Rākana Cook. The point is not that VP has a difficult life and therefore his decisions have “context”: it’s that describing the police as a “gang” does not recognise the importance of what the police do and the personal cost of doing so. It’s easy to forget that not all cops are like VP.

General Debate 24 October 2026

Labour’s Emergency Department record

The Post reports:

Labour has unveiled a fresh batch of policies promising to fix overcrowding at emergency departments, with more nurses, faster access to hospital beds and care before patients reach crisis point.

It is useful to compare rhetoric to record.

Under the Key/English Government between 90% and 95% of people at ED were dealt with in under six hours.

Labour’s record speaks for itself. It was a total disaster for emergency departments. Before they took office only 8% of ED patients waited more than six hours. When they left office it was 33%, so four times as many patients were waiting over six hours.

Why would you want to give them a second chance?

2026 Mood of the Boardroom

The Herald’s 2026 Mood of the Boardroom is out. How were the MPs rated this year by the CEOs?

  1. Erica Stanford 4.38 (nc)
  2. Todd McClay 4.12 (+0.38)
  3. Mark Mitchell 4.00 (+0.34)
  4. Chris Bishop 3.71 (-0.09)
  5. David Seymour 3.44 (+0.28)
  6. Brooke van Velden 3.40 (+0.15)
  7. Winston Peters 3.39 (-0.43)
  8. Barbara Edmonds 3.39 (+0.19)
  9. Simeon Brown 3.34 (-0.27)
  10. Kieran McAnulty 3.31 (+0.46)
  11. Nicola Willis 3.17 (+0.08)
  12. Louise Upston 3.10 (-0.01)
  13. Chris Luxon 2.93 (-0.03)
  14. Ayesha Verrall 2.33 (+0.26)
  15. Chris Hipkins 2.25 (-0.03)
  16. Carmel Sepuloni 2.21 (+0.17)
  17. Vanushi Walters 2.00
  18. Willie Jackson 1.79 (+0.01)
  19. Willow Jean Prime 1.73 (+0.20)
  20. Cushla Tangaere-Manuel 1.72

General Debate 23 October 2026

Labour’s delivery record

Labour candidate campaigning for votes at Mongrel Mob fundraiser!!!!!

Stuff reports:

Video has emerged of Labour candidate Kerrin Leoni campaigning at what appears to be a gang event. 

In the video, obtained by Whakaata Māori, a patched Mongrel Mob member talks about the gangs not needing to fight each other, but the government. 

The footage then cuts to Leoni who is wearing a Labour party jacket. 

“Some of them you might know, that aren’t enrolled to vote and they can have the power to change this government.”

The Post has reported it understands the event was advertised as a fundraiser for the Mongrel Mob’s Rogue chapter. 

The footage also showed Leoni holding up a campaign sign.

So the Labour Party says they won’t attend election debates hosted by the Taxpayers’ Union (because Nicky Hager doesn’t like them), yet they will have candidates attend actual fundraisers for the Mongrel Mob, where they implore the gang members to vote to get rid of the Government.

What does this say about their priorities?

Here are the facts:

  1. The last Labour Government had Ministers personally approve the funding of Mongrel Mob members to run a drug rehabilitation course (of course most hard drugs in NZ are sold by gangs)
  2. When Chris Hipkins was PM, Kiri Allan proposed to Cabinet they they stop funding gangs, and the Cabinet chaired by Chris Hipkins declined Allan’s proposal
  3. Chris Hipkins defended the funding of gangs, when he was Prime Minister.
  4. A Labour candidate solicited votes for Labour at a fundraiser for the Mongrel Mob!!

I feel sorry for all the men and women who have been bashed, robbed or raped by Mongrel Mob members who see politicians of the left cosying up to them, desperate for their votes.

The Mongrel Mob is not a community organisation. It is a gang which does organised crime. Of course you should treat any individual NZer with respect and engage with them. But that is vastly different to funding them, and attending fundraisers for them.

Terrible media standard

Liam Hehir has an amazing story.

Basically The Press ran a story about Bryan Cadogan, describing him as someone who voted National for many years and has now left National. They say the recent proposal to drug test beneficiaries seems to have greatly alienated him. So it makes it look like this is a recent decision.

Liam points out that Mr Cadogan was described in April by Labour MP Ingrid Leary as Labour’s campaign lead for Clutha. So The Press described a Labour campaign lead as a sort of swinging voter who left National over a recent policy decision. It is outrageous.

It then gets better with the follow up. Cadogan and Leary now both deny he is a campaign lead for Labour (despite Leary calling him that on social media), but she lets slip he has put up hoardings for her for “a number of campaigns”. This means that he went over to Labour a long long time ago, and was totally unrelated to anything this Government has done.

He has also been a member of Labour’s Policy Committee.

The Press still has not updated their story to reflect that Cadogan is in fact a long-term Labour Party activist, who they have portrayed as some sort of swinging voter who left National because of decision made by the current Government.

And again we wonder why trust in media is so low.

If ever a story was deserving of a Media Council complaint, it would be this one.

The Law Society has a problem

I blogged in March about an outrageous decision by a Law Society Standards Committee decision which fined Stephen Franks and Franks Ogilvy for the sin of “being lawyers”. I wrote:

The Legal Complaints Review Officer overturned the decision, noting:

The very purpose of a lawyer or firm sending a letter on behalf of a client is, in many if not most instances, to endeavour to lend weight to whatever concern, position or purpose the client seeks to express or advance. That is what lawyers do. This is why a client comes to its lawyer and says, “we need a lawyer’s letter about this”. This cannot conceivably be improper in principle.

This was a massive slap down. But nothing will stop some members of the Law Society who seem determined to take out anyone whose clients have the wrong politics. And once again they have been slapped down by a Legal Complaints Review Officer:

I disagree with the Committee’s reasoning and conclusions for essentially the same or similar reasons as I disagreed with the same standards committee’s reasoning and conclusions on similar issues in the Franks decision, albeit that there are differences. In Franks, the Committee’s adverse conduct finding was one of breach of r 2.3 of the Rules relating to use of a legal process for an improper purpose. Here, the finding is one of disrespect and discourteousness in breach of r 10.1 of the Rules.

I had never heard of an LCRO before the Franks decision. I am now very glad they exist!

Similarly, it is not for the Committee to second-guess how the applicant went about supporting her client in the pursuit of its cause, again provided that the means of doing so were lawful. In general terms, I do not consider that r 10.1 is intended to operate as a mechanism for attempting to constrain a lawyer’s professional involvement on behalf of a client in public discourse on any issue of arguable public interest.

Let lawyers be lawyers!

General Debate 22 October 2026

The Hipkins record

Guest Post: Woke 1 was crazy. Are you ready for Woke 2?

A guest post by Alex Penk:

“Woke 1” was crazy. Don’t take my word for it; that’s what Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said. The globally influential US politician made the comment when asked to explain some of her past positions, like defunding the police, and the internet went, well, crazy. 

But the most interesting thing is what the comment implies—if there was a “Woke 1”, there will be a “Woke 2”. 

In fact, I think Woke 2 is already here, for reasons we’ll get into. First, a disclaimer: I don’t like using “woke” because it’s become a pejorative term, a kind of rhetorical cudgel. But, like it or not, it’s in the discourse, so it’s important to establish what “woke” means, where it’s helpful, and where it goes wrong. 

“Woke” was said to originate with African Americans about a century ago, where staying woke meant being “awake” to racism. From there, “woke” expanded to include awareness of all forms of social injustice, especially the way injustice can be perpetuated in social structures. It then adopted the insights of intersectionality, which proposes that multiple forms of disadvantage—when, say, someone is a member of a marginalised racial minority and also has a disability—can intersect and compound. 

There is truth to this. Racism is real and evil, systems can maintain oppression, and disadvantage can accumulate. These are things we should all be aware of and opposed to. 

That, however, is not the full story of woke. 

Woke went beyond awareness and became an ideology: wokeism. In simple terms, wokeism is a form of critical theory, derived from Marxism, which says that the way we structure society is really a struggle over who has power. Some people are oppressors—they have power and use their privilege to maintain systems and structures to their advantage. Others are victims, exploited by the oppressors to maintain this status quo.

Crucially, oppressors and victims are defined not by their individual humanity, but by their identities, especially their race, sex, or gender. From the reasonable insight that groups often have shared experiences, wokeism proceeds to the conclusion that we’re inescapbly defined by the groups we belong to. To know someone’s identity is to categorise them—regardless of whether you actually know them. 

That’s a textbook example of how to dehumanise someone. 

It gets worse. As a society, it’s inevitable that we will disagree about important issues. Wokeism concluded that the way to resolve disagreement was to elevate victims, topple oppressors, and dismantle systems—all defined along those identity lines. 

Because this was a coherent system of thought, you couldn’t pick and choose elements of the ideology—say, embracethe awareness of injustice and discard the theory of oppression. Nor could you agree with the problem diagnosis but offer a different solution—say, agree that society needs to be more tolerant, but deny that the best way to show love is to prescribe puberty blockers to an adolescent still trying to work out who they are or to uncritically affirm someone’s new gender identity. 

This was a package deal, and it did not tolerate dissent. And no wonder, when, by wokeism’s definition, disagreement was simply defence of oppression. 

Thus a defining characteristic of wokeism, as observed and experienced by most people, was its willingness to punish differing views and enforce conformity. Sometimes the softer language of “celebrating diversity and inclusion” was employed, but the results were the same.

So Woke 1 was just the first major iteration of wokeism, and the revolutionary zeal that accompanied it produced an understandable and negative response—hence Ocasio-Cortez’s desire to be conciliatory about the “crazy” of that era. 

But let’s look at some representative cases, across academia, government, and law, and consider whether they sound familiar.

Start with the calls to “defund the police” that were the cause of Ocasio-Cortez’s recent comments. This is a good example of wokeism. The assumption is that policing is structurally oppressive, using force to maintain the privileged in their position and victimising marginalised identities. This goes beyond observing that policing has disparate impacts—instead, it asserts this oppression is the whole point of policing. While these calls originated in the US in the Woke 1 era, they’ve been repeated here. Quite recently actually, with two Otago academics arguing last year that New Zealand Police are structurally racist, with a “whakapapa … grounded in a long and violent colonial history.” 

Moving on to government, the Green Party’s new health manifesto uses the framework of wokeism when it promisesto “Reconfigure our health system towards recognising and acting on oppressive and intersecting biases (e.g. racism, sexism, ableism, fatphobia, ageism, queerphobia, transphobia)”. On the right, the ACT Party adopted wokeist intolerance of dissent when it doubled down on euthanasia reforms that would make it harder for hospices, doctors and nurses, to express their beliefs if they don’t believe assisted death is the best way to care for vulnerable patients. 

And the courts recently issued new guidance for lawyers, saying they should know and use clients’ and witnesses’ pronouns. Women’s rights advocate Ani O’Brien points out that the guidelines “assume that using someone’s requested pronouns is an uncomplicated courtesy. In a courtroom, it isn’t always.” That’s why equivalent UK guidancesays, for example, “a female rape victim may find it incomprehensible if the judge and others in court refer to her biologically male attacker as ‘she’”. New Zealand’s guidelines lack this insight. 

As these examples show, Woke 2 is already here. Or, in other words, the wokeism that produced Woke 1 may have been less obvious for a time, but it never went away. 

So how should we respond?  

Not with condemnation, aggression, or fear. That wouldn’t just be ironic, it would be wrong. 

If wokeism’s ultimate failing is to dehumanise, then the solution is to re-humanise. 

To begin with, we should acknowledge and embrace the truths recognised in the origins of woke—prejudice is real, systems can have unjust outcomes, disadvantage can multiply. 

But we should resist the ideology of wokeism. 

First, reject the false ideas. It’s simply not true that identity markers divide us from each other in the way that wokeism asserts. Our shared human nature means that the things we have in common are much more important than the things that distinguish us. 

Second, refuse to play the game. Don’t enter the victimhood Olympics, by which I mean don’t try to win debates on the strength of your identity rather than the strength of your ideas. And don’t try to crush dissent or cancel difference among people of good will. Deal in persuasion, not compulsion. Yes, there will be limits to what we can agree on or accept, but make them as generous as possible, and recognise your ideological opponents’ humanity by treating them with dignity. 

Third, tell the truth. If Woke 2 follows the pattern of Woke 1, it won’t take kindly to being challenged. Challenge it anyway. 

Responding to wokeism will take courage; it might even mean paying a price for holding your position in the face of opposition. 

But if we’re not willing or able to do this, then Woke 2 isn’t just here—it’s already won.   

Alex Penk is the CEO of Ethos, a registered charity that offers advice, advocacy and education to promote the rights of conscience, religion and belief: www.ethosalliance.nz

IMF’s 2027 growth forecasts

The IMF has just published their forecasts for economic growth for 2027. They show that NZ is projected to have far better growth than many other countries. An extract:

  1. New Zealand 2.6%
  2. US 2.3%
  3. Sweden 2.2%
  4. Canada 1.7%
  5. Euro area 1.2%
  6. UK 1.2%
  7. Germany 1.1%
  8. France 0.7%
  9. Italy 0.6%

There are a few countries ahead of us such as Israel and Ireland, but if we don’t throw it all away next month, we are poised for very good growth next year.