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December 4, 2009 8:00am by David Farrar

General Debate 4 December 2009

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General Debate

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andrei

Isn’t it great the the National Party passed the ETS under urgency – even if they did have to buy off the Maori Party by giving public assets to Maori aristocrats.

If they hadn’t I expect we would all have died already.
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December 4, 2009 8:11am
Chicken Little

Why has Al Gore cancelled his Copenhagen speech?

Phew- US$1200 to hear Al talk. Al isn’t cheap.

Should JK cancel his trip?
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December 4, 2009 8:12am
Chthoniid

A couple more Jesus-birds (jacanas) for your TGIF viewing pleasure

http://chthoniid.zenfolio.com/img/v7/p703560782-5.jpg

http://chthoniid.zenfolio.com/img/v6/p850549219-5.jpg

Enjoy your Friday 🙂
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December 4, 2009 8:14am
stephen

Hallelujah
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December 4, 2009 8:21am
Michaels

Another stunning Auckland summers day………
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December 4, 2009 8:24am
jcuknz

It is frustrating for the dumb insensitive bastards who hold to their views despite reasoned argument when more sensible people change their position.
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December 4, 2009 8:26am
fredinthegrass

Michaels………….Yeah,Rught!
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December 4, 2009 8:27am
stephen

Surrender to Sehwag, you fools.
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December 4, 2009 8:40am
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Looks like Grant Robertson is asking Goff to de-select him for the next general election in 2011:

Caucus to ask Goff to explain speech

Is Goff going to man up and tell Grant Robertson and his fellow travellers where they can get off?
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December 4, 2009 8:55am
Chuck Bird

There has been a further development which will make ACT’s spokesperson on Climate Change, John Boscawen’s meeting this Monday even more interesting!

A special guest speaker at the meeting will be Richard Treadgold, convenor of the Climate Conversation Group. Richard collated the recently released paper “Are we feeling warmer yet?” from a combined research project undertaken by members of the Climate Conversation Group and the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.

Richard will present the findings of the research project and explain why, since New Zealand’s warming comes entirely from the adjustments, they are concerned that the figures have been published without mentioning the adjustments and that they have been used repeatedly to influence national policy.

He will also reveal their latest discovery of a contradiction between this official NIWA graph of the past and official predictions for the future.

PUBLIC MEETING

John Boscawen, ACT’s spokesperson on Climate Change, invites you to a Public Meeting to discuss the Emissions Trading Scheme.

New Zealanders will all be poorer. Power, petrol and food
will all go up in price.

Come and find out;

• Why the ETS will see many low and middle income families struggle

• Why many feel the scientific consensus is crumbling and dispute the fact that the
science is settled

• Why it will be more difficult for our export businesses and farmers to compete

• Why ACT’s offer to support National in delaying Labour’s ETS was ignored

Where: Royal Akarana Yacht Club,
10 Tamaki Drive, Okahu Bay, Auckland

When: Monday 7 December, 7.30 pm

For more information
email karen.bridgman@parliament.govt.nz

or call 09 531 5531
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December 4, 2009 9:17am
3-coil

Chicken Little (8:12am): the ticket prices to Al Gore’s speech at Copenhagen may seem expensive at US$1200, but his overheads are high – his Lear jet travel costs have to be covered somehow.
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December 4, 2009 9:22am
Elijah Lineberry

Blogger’s Drinks in Auckland last night was a success again.

Rather a sad occasion as Anna Woolf had expired the day before, but it was nice to see a number of Kiwiblog regulars there and have intelligent conversations with various chaps.

I must say it is always amusing at how the ACT chaps never seem to see the underlying communist tendencies of their party, but rather are under the inexplicable impression they are libertarians. Odd.

http://www.nightcitytrader.blogspot.com
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December 4, 2009 9:29am
Tassman

Obama’s legacy is destined to pave a bloodbath as the war against terror is fought around the world; in Pakistan, India, Somali, Darfur, Afghanistan and elsewhere. It may even spread to the UK and Australia in desperation of propaganda. It is aimed to achieve total destruction before any new development is expected, but the nature of terrorism does not conform to any rules in war. The task of maintaining a prestigious status is inherent of war even during peacetime. But the war of terror is extended to the economic front as China squeezes its monetary hold while the Euro advances. And we should expect the social impact in twists and turns of the Western Media. So, if Obama should win he has to be a moderate on social policy. His administration doesn’t want an internal war as well. Win or lose the collateral damage toll shall raise Obama’s profile alongside Blair and Bush among the warmongers! But the price to pay for prestige is paved by the blood of the ordinary folks.
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December 4, 2009 9:31am
Redbaiter

“amusing at how the ACT chaps never seem to see the underlying communist tendencies of their party”

Funny how Libertarians see themselves as anti-authoritarian when they actually run one of the most strictly controlled and dogmatic political organisations in New Zealand.
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December 4, 2009 9:33am
RightNow

Has anybody seen summer? We’re officially 4 days into it now but it’s cold and overcast. This AGW business is really disappointing, where’s our warmer weather?
I don’t want to have to pay money to be colder!!! I want warmer!!!
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December 4, 2009 9:39am
Elijah Lineberry

Redbaiter 9:33am… You said it 😉 ..but yes, you are quite correct.

http://www.nightcitytrader.blogspot.com
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December 4, 2009 9:40am
big bruv

So, let me see if I have this right Mr Sneddon.

First of all you want me to pay for an update to your rugby stadium in Auckland, then you want me to pay for the loss that your RWC tournament will incur, now you have the cheek to tell me that should I actually want to get a decent seat at the RWC that I AM FUCKING PAYING FOR it will cost me $1250!

Well Mr Sneddon, you and your NZRU can go and get stuffed, you and your pals at the NZRU have destroyed what used to be a great game and I will not help bail you out of what is going to be a national embarrassment.
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December 4, 2009 10:07am
MT_Tinman

Big Bruv, $390 t0 $1,250 seems rather well priced to me given Mr Sneddon has been forced to give away 35,000 tickets so the big-noters can bring their gin-swilling mates.

I notice some tickets will be $30.

I still won’t be attending because I totally agree with your last paragraph.
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December 4, 2009 10:58am
dime

Not quite sure how Sneddon has ruined rugby.

The pricing is better than i thought it would be.

The RWC will be a huge success, but like some sort of leftist media outlet, bruv will ignore reality and tell us how much it sucked.
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December 4, 2009 11:11am
william

Oh come on Big Bruv…. where else could you spend $1250 to spend an hour and a half with a bunch of other fanatics working themselves into a frenzy while watching a brainless interaction that has absolutely zero connection to the real world most of us live in….. Oh, you say you have a ticket to Al Gore for sale.
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December 4, 2009 11:12am
getstaffed

@Chuck @ 9:17. Any propspect of a similar event here in Wellington?
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December 4, 2009 11:17am
philu

http://whoar.co.nz/2009/british-mps-to-go-clubbing-to-investigate-cocaine/

heh..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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December 4, 2009 11:25am
Jack5

New topic/question for a minute if I may..

Does any Kiwiblogolyte know how accurate or genuine are the many claims made about how much money an event of industry brings to NZ? From the rugby cup to sports championships you get these claims about X million is bring brought to the country or to a city or region.

The article linked to below talks of the film industry bringing $1.2 billion a year to NZ. It would be nice to know if this was in royalties, or if it includes expenditure by foreign film crews, and whether the amount is net of the taxpayer dollars spent on promoting the film industry or exempting local film successes from full taxes.

The heading on the item is interesting, too, reflecting how deeply ingrained has become the sense of entitlement to Gummint/taxpayer handouts.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/3125762/Bill-English-the-believer-keeps-wallet-shut
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December 4, 2009 11:36am
LUCY

Chicken Little asks why Al Gore has cancelled his trip this may be the reason

“The Netherlands is afire today over a Dutch study concluding Mount Kilimanjaro’s snow melt — used as a symbol of AGW by Al Gore — is entirely natural.” (source Pajamas Media) it has been reported by the MSM over there.
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December 4, 2009 11:47am
stephen

The Dutch obviously very passionate about mountains, ha.
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December 4, 2009 11:54am
Colonel Masters

Nice question Jack5, I too wonder about the source of many of these figures. (Delivered without any type of qualification or basis.)

Mind you, reading the article more closely, you will note that it states:

Film New Zealand chair Julian Grimmond said the film industry bought in $1.2 billion each year…

So if we are buying in this $1.2 billion, it’s actually costing us!
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December 4, 2009 11:55am
Chuck Bird

Elijah, I am an ACT member. However, I fail to see the underlying communist tendencies of ACT. There may have been some other ACT members present last night but I did not see any. I am not under the impression that I am a libertarian because I am not. What do you base your observations on?
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December 4, 2009 12:06pm
side show bob

DPF, “Will jumbo John be quietly hoping 747Kevin wins a snap election”. You bet, I bet Shonkey is filling his pants. The meltdown of this whole ETS scam must be the mans worst nightmare. How can he now lower taxes to match the Aussies when his cash flows may have taken a serious hit. Is it any wonder they must still continue to support this tragedy, they have cooked the books and desperately need the taxes from this new tax. They would have got away with it had Aussie signed up but now they must pray and hope that it all turns out their way. A few questions.

How much will NZ have to pay in ETS taxes a year?

How much in a percentage will the government keep in handling fees?

If for some unforeseen reason we get a refund how much would be returned to those that paid the fees?
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December 4, 2009 12:08pm
Pita

We’re all fools…The AGW and ETS cloaks are woven with such fine thread that you either have to be a scientist or a”gifted” politician to see it. Copenhagen is where it goes on display for all to wonder at its magnificence.
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December 4, 2009 12:15pm
Jack5

Another new topic if I may (and thanks Colonel for your 11.56 point)

The NZ Treasury chief in the NZ herald article linked below tells how close NZ came last year to following Iceland into financial disaster. Worth a read.

Treasury Secretary John White says this in the article:

one major local bank was unable to raise any cash through its usual overseas channels for 28 consecutive days, leading to concerns about the bank’s ability to fund its existing loan book, let alone any new lending.

The link:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10613409
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December 4, 2009 12:17pm
Lance

Will the anti-AGW stop peddling their religion here… it’s sooooo last week 😉
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December 4, 2009 1:04pm
Chthoniid

@Jack5

Does any Kiwiblogolyte know how accurate or genuine are the many claims made about how much money an event of industry brings to NZ?

Usually it’s pretty inaccurate.
Typically it’s done by using gross or induced expenditures as part of the benefit. So while a normal business would have to count wages or construction materials as a cost, these types of studies count those expenditures as a benefit.

Then they do some guess work at how this spending may stimulate spending elsewhere via some assumed multiplier effect. Round it up to a big number, and there you have it. If you adopt this approach, you’re usually inflating the actual economic benefit by an order of magnitude.

The other problem is you assume spending on this event, induces spending elsewhere that would not have occurred if the money was spent on something else . So if the some money spent on the film industry or the RWC was spent on something else, this would be, according to these studies, a complete waste that would achieve nothing of value to society.
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December 4, 2009 1:17pm
Fletch

Will the anti-AGW stop peddling their religion here… it’s sooooo last week

Lance, all we can do is make a noise, even though the powers-that-be have their ears plugged.

This whole climate change thing is analogous to there being a fire alarm in a multi-story house where all the leaders are staying; them being told to prepare to jump from the 5th story in order to survive the blaze; the fire alarm being called off; and everyone wanting to make the dangerous jump anyway because it makes them look macho.
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December 4, 2009 3:42pm
philu

(now..!..don’t say i never do anything for you..!..)

http://whoar.co.nz/2009/anyone-out-there-a-fan-of-the-gipperreaganwant-a-free-i-phone-app/

(maybe you have a reactionary uncle..?..)

“..The Ronald Reagan Presidential Library has come up with a new way for Reaganites to bask in the glory of Ronaldus Magnus:..

.. A free iPhone application!

I just spent the last few minutes downloading and fiddling around with the app.

It has a gallery of pictures of Reagan in all his glory, for an admirer to cycle through with only the swipe of a finger (such as the pic shown above).

There is also Reagan playing mini-golf in the Oval Office, Reagan visiting with the Pope, Reagan with his horse, Reagan in front of an American flag, and other such glorious memories.

There is also ready access to the library’s YouTube account, to watch Reagan’s 1980 Republican acceptance speech, his 1981 inaugural address, his 1961 speech opposing the creation of Medicare ..

.. and other great moments in Reagan history.

Another gallery is of text, with short quotes to read through, such as: “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”

(However, this omits the key context of the full sentence, “In this present crisis…,” which implies some flexibility for other circumstances.)

There is also: “All the waste in a year from a nuclear power plant can be stored under a desk.”

And of course, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”

(heh..!..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)

(reagan..y’know yr soaking in it..?..)
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December 4, 2009 3:50pm
RightNow

Anyone keen to be a Lapdancing Researcher in Leeds?
http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/Leeds-lapdancing-research-job-up.5870024.jp
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December 4, 2009 3:55pm
MeneerCronje

Manbearpig must be stopped!!!
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December 4, 2009 4:20pm
emmess

>>Will the anti-AGW stop peddling their religion here… it’s sooooo last week

No way dude
The MSM may not like it, but this story has more legs than a millepede
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December 4, 2009 4:28pm
philu

whoar..!

another conservative/rightwing blogger has announced he is ‘breaking with the right..!’..

(that’s two in one week..!,,)

http://whoar.co.nz/2009/andrew-sullivan-im-breaking-from-the-right/

“..Reacting to prominent conservative blogger Charles Johnson’s announcement that he would not follow the right wing off a cliff ..

.. Andrew Sullivan is offering his own reasons for parting with the movement.

Johnson, who blogs at Little Green Footballs, wrote on Monday that fanatic politicians, racism, sexism, anti-Islamism, hate speech, conspiracy theories and other troubling trends on the right wing have led him to make a formal break.

“The American right wing has gone off the rails, into the bushes, and off the cliff,” he concluded.

“I won’t be going over the cliff with them.”

Andrew Sullivan, though not as consistent a conservative as Johnson, felt compelled to emphasize his own separation from the right wing.

Among other things, he writes:

‘..I cannot support a movement that holds that purely religious doctrine should govern civil political decisions and that uses the sacredness of religious faith for the pursuit of worldly power.

I cannot support a movement that is deeply homophobic, cynically deploys fear of homosexuals to win votes ..

.. and gives off such a racist vibe that its share of the minority vote remains pitiful.

I cannot support a movement which has no real respect for the institutions of government ..

.. and is prepared to use any tactic and any means to fight political warfare ..

.. rather than conduct a political conversation..”

(ain’t that all ‘the truth’..?..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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December 4, 2009 4:56pm
LUCY

Well you lot may not have picked up on what I have been saying all day but Andrew Bolt has. “Holland’s Elsevier reports on new research that once more shows Al Gore faked his findings in An Inconvenient Truth: “
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December 4, 2009 5:52pm
LUCY

Just in case you happen to be midely interested
Holland’s Elsevier reports on new research that once more shows Al Gore faked his findings in An Inconvenient Truth:

“Frormer American vice president and Nobel Prize winner Gore has for years used the melting snow on Africa’s highest mountain (5892 metres) for his climate propaganda. The snow cover is shrinking and that is caused by man and his greenhouse gases!

The Dutch scientist Jaap Sinninghe Damsté debunks this story of climate guru Gore in the leading periodical Nature.

A natural process of large climate shifts seems to be the true cause, says the Dutch Organisation for Scientific Research on Thursday….

The researcher and European colleagues discovered that Kilimanjaro underwent successive periods of heavy monsoons and extreme dryness. Ice and snow retreat from the top in dry periods and return in the very wet ones….

Al Gore must find another symbol for his climate problem. Kilimanjaro does now have little snow on the peak, but that seems to be completely natural.”
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December 4, 2009 6:01pm
LUCY

Could this be the reason Al Gore no longer wants to talk at the Copenhagen Meeting? Could he possibly be afraid of embarrasing Questions?

The MSM in the Netherlands is running thia.
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December 4, 2009 6:04pm
billyborker

Has anyone else heard from Dad4justice?

I had a disturbing email saying he was stuck in the UK, minus passport and airline tickets and asking for 2500 quid to get him home.

Does anyone else know anything about this? Is he OK?
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December 4, 2009 7:07pm
reid

Pulling wings off flies, billy, and laughing at the poor creature.

Did you enjoy it?

You certainly sound like you might have.

It’s a bit surprising you continue your abuse as an adult, billy. Are you retarded, or just a wanker?
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December 4, 2009 7:09pm
paradigm

Yet more continuation of the epic saga of the poorly written paper by Gerlich and Tscheuschner: My response to falafulufisi.

They presented various points apart from their 2nd law of thermodynamics argument. So, the paper doesn’t collapse because of their poor 2nd law poor argument.

The essential thesis of the paper is not that IPCC or anyone else are using models that are not quantitatively accurate. Its that the greenhouse effect does not exist. That it is entirely fictitious. This is largely based on the second law argument, coupled with an equally dodgy argument at the end of the radiative equilibrium argument I will discuss below. I do note now that the second law argument’s failure does NEUTER THE ENTIRE FIRST HALF OF THEIR ABSTRACT, so can be considered quite a blow to the paper.

I am not an academic as you thought.

As long as you have had publications, you know how tough the peer review can get. I am being mild compared with what would be said if this paper were sent to physical review (they would not have used the term “crappy” – probably something along the lines of “is excessively padded with superfluous material, makes false conclusions based on an incorrect application of theory, and thus cannot be considered of the standard needed for publication”, so feel free to exchange the two if I ever use the term in future).

RE the questions: I propose we go through them one by one, in a series of posts, and discuss them in detail, and with reference to the paper we are discussing in particular. I note some of your points (and expansions thereon) are probably more targeted at modelling in general than directly on this paper. While I am happy to discuss them, we should be clear where we are discussing this paper’s thesis, and where we are digressing.

1) Does radiative equilibrium exist, if so, then on what basis ? (in both theoretical & observational)

Radiative equilibrium of a body will exist in the large time limit when said body is adsorbing a constant amount in power terms. For a simplified model like the one discussed in these papers, that corresponds to a non-fluctuating sun and a circularly orbiting planet.

We should also compare differing definitions of such an equilibrium: the one above suggests the body as a whole radiates as much as it adsorbs, in the first paper they also apply one where each point on the planet radiates as much as it adsorbs instead of the planet as a whole, and suggest it more correct, which leads to the wonderful conclusion that on the dark side of the planet we are at 0K.

Now you might suggest the first model has similar flaws, it requires the entire planet to be equilibrated to the same temperature. However the authors of the first paper (IMO their only useful contribution) note that doing so does establish an upper bound (by Holder’s inequality) on the actual average temperature, which makes it useful. Strangely, after pointing this out, they fail to realise the utility of it.

If you make further approximations to keep it valid as an upper bound (take the radius of circular orbit as the minimum earth sun distance in Earth’s actual orbit, set the flux from the sun at when the sun is being a bit more active than usual) you can draw conclusions from it. The assumption of a black body is actually useful here as well: since it assumes 100% adsorption it will help represent an upper limit. Now if you do all that, you get the upper limit for temperature of a planet in Earth’s orbit without an atmosphere. And its still lower than Earth’s temperature.

Conclusion: The atmosphere must act to raise the temperature of earth, which is referred to as the greenhouse effect. This falsifies statement (c) in the second part of the abstract. The x degree temperature difference now gains a useful meaning: is a lower bound on what the temperature difference should be between actual Earth and no atmosphere Earth.

In an entirely bizarre turn, at the end of this section the authors take the 4th power root of the average of 4th power temperatures on Earth, find it is close to 15 degrees C, and state this disproves the atmosphere having any effect on global warming as the temperature they get out is close to the average atmospheric temperature. This does nothing of the sort (it just demonstrates Holder’s inequality in action). Now if they had done it on results from an atmosphere-less Earth, they would have a point. As it is they show nothing, apart from their scientific illiteracy.

The central thesis of the paper (as seen in the abstract) is that the green house effect does not exist. The only place they attempt to do this quantitatively is in the section I have discussed above; the only other place they attempt this substantively is in the thermodynamics section. I have zero confidence in the validity of both sections. Their essential thesis is not shown to be correct.

Executive summary:The central thesis of the paper – that they can show global warming is against the laws of physics is refuted. The scientific literacy of this paper’s authors is on the same level as the employability of Phillip Ure.
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December 4, 2009 7:45pm
Luc Hansen

LUCY

I haven’t yet found the article you quote from in the online version of Nature but I did find this article which contradicts Andrew Bolt’s seeming addiction to disinformation, which is perhaps understandable as it is the only way he can make a dishonest dollar or two, it seems.

And then there is this and also this and on and on with articles of similar themes.

In fact, I urge Kiwiblog readers to visit Nature and browse the climate change articles for themselves.

People, there is no need to accept the garbage dished up here by the climate change deniers.

In fact, there is a clear and present need not to accept such garbage.
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December 4, 2009 8:00pm
XChequer

Has anyone seen or heard from Annette King recently?

http://thenzhomeoffice.blogspot.com/2009/12/where-is-annette.html

XChequer
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December 4, 2009 8:42pm
Viking2

AGW Xmas Carol Very good it is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmPSUMBrJoI&feature=player_embedded
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December 4, 2009 8:59pm
Pete George

Warning to any Rodney flower pot pinchers – and neighbours.

If a thief who recently stole a terracotta pot from a home north of Auckland isn’t already female, he might be soon, according to the pot’s owner. The flower pot, which was stolen from the garden of At du Plooy’s Gulf Harbour home, contained the ashes of his dead grandmother who was an African sangoma or witchdoctor.

As a medium, du Plooy says he kept in touch with his grandmother, who had cursed a one kilometre area around the pot with sex-change ions. This meant that men in the area could expect to gradually start changing into women, and women into men, he says.

If the thief took flight and dumped the contents, it wouldn’t make any difference as the only way for him or her to retain their gender – and the gender of their neighbours – was to return the pot, he says.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/residents-threatened-sex-change-curse-3224458
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December 4, 2009 9:01pm
Viking2

http://oswaldbastable.blogspot.com/2009/12/its-frickin-freezing-mr-bigglesworth.html
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December 4, 2009 9:06pm
Viking2

Copenhagen emissions deal would be first step, says Al Gore

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/copenhagen-emissions-deal-would-be-first-step-says-al-gore/story-e6frg6xf-1225806884476

* Robin Pagnamenta
* From: The Times
* December 04, 2009 10:09AM

An Inconvenient Truth

Former US Vice-President Al Gore says a deal on carbon pollution reduction is only the first step. Source: The Sunday Times
Ambitious global goal

EVEN if a deal is reached at the UN climate change talks in Copenhagen next week it will only be the first step towards the far more radical cuts that are needed in global carbon emissions, Al Gore, the former US Vice-President, said last night.

Mr Gore told The Times of London that to avoid the worst ravages of climate change world leaders would have to come together again to set more drastic reductions than those now planned.

“Even a final treaty will have to set the stage for other tougher reductions at a later date,” he said. “We have already overshot the safe levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.”
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December 4, 2009 9:16pm
Fletch

More Gore-bull warming propaganda.
Their little house of cards is starting to fall down around them.
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December 4, 2009 9:39pm
philu

have you always been a big fan of the cliched metaphor..?..there..fletch..?

you can just string them together..

and it saves you having to think/write anything even vaguely original..

eh..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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December 4, 2009 10:15pm
getstaffed

“Even a final treaty will have to set the stage for other tougher reductions at a later date,” he said. “We have already overshot the safe levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.”

Is this ‘overshot’ assessment based on his original CO2 impact ‘belief’, or the new one where he recently decided (how?) that CO2 only constituted 40% of the impact?

He’s not one for fact and figures really – witness his stupidity the earth being millions of degrees ‘2 kms or so down’. Duh!

No, the only thing that’s overshot ‘safe levels’ is our alarmist bullshit-o-meter which has been redlining for so long that even his faithful here are kiwiblog have stopped coming to Algore’s rescue. Than, and perhaps because he is a charlatan, a liar and a fraud.
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December 4, 2009 10:38pm
wreck1080

Heard the cops defending their prosecution of a father who hit his son with a pillow.

Their arguments were pathetic. It just shows how much out of touch the cops really are.

The cops behaved disgracefully and need to apologise for wasting tax payer money and the anti smacking law is being abused and used contrary to john keys statemetns.
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December 4, 2009 11:13pm
billyborker

Once again, I am forced to point out to a moron, this case has NOTHING to do with S59 which deals solely with parents, NOT uncles, aunties, dogs or cats. Just parents.

Hat tip MNIJ
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December 5, 2009 7:27am
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Looks like New Zealand is going to win the World Cup.

Should be able to easily beat Italy. Paraguay and Slovakia look like easy wins as well.
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December 5, 2009 7:31am
billyborker

Um, I think you need to win a few more games after that …

And as for easily beating Italy, look at the last world cup for how favoured European teams are given every advantage by the ref to avoid an antipodean interloper. Australia didn’t lose toitaly in the quarters, they lost to the ref.

Soccer is even more corrupt than the Olympics.
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December 5, 2009 7:44am
dad4justice

borker you cunt, police will visit you today. Your email hacking stint has annoyed them. I am going to make an example of you good and proper! You are vile scum and you filthy prick have upset my family. They all want revenge.
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December 5, 2009 8:36am
dad4justice

I have said to police , if they don’t charge you then I will deal to you. Just fyi folks borker has hacked my internet accounts and accessed my phone where the creep has continually harrassed my family. I am going to nail this cunt.
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December 5, 2009 8:53am
billyborker

waiting …. waiting …. waiting ….

Nope, no police.
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December 5, 2009 8:53am
dad4justice

Hey angus can I have this pus balls name thank you? I sort this today. My twin sons want this creep real bad.
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December 5, 2009 8:55am
billyborker

Billy Borker. What name did you give to the police?
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December 5, 2009 9:01am
dad4justice

The police contacted me last night after your vicious email. My son who is overseas contacted them because he was so concerned about the email. Silly cunt you are going down. You better hope police deal with you before I do.
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December 5, 2009 9:03am
billyborker

well, you might be a dumbass, but you are good entertainment value. Why are the police reading your emails?
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December 5, 2009 9:07am
dad4justice

My brother and sister were so concerned about my safety after reading YOUR email they contacted police. Infact 6 people have made complaints to cops about YOUR email. You are absolute filth borker.
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December 5, 2009 9:09am
billyborker

Which email was that? I haven’t sent you any, although you sent me the one begging for 2500 quid. I guess you’ve made a lot of enemies here.

Furthermore, IF I sent you an offensive email, the police would only be interested in hearing from YOU, not from others you may have shown it to.

Which police did you go to? The Dream Police?

You need to get out more, stop living in your fantasy world. Why not go for a bike ride with Stan? Its a great day for a bike ride.
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December 5, 2009 9:14am
billyborker

Anyway, lovely sunny day today in Cantebury, so I am off outside to mow the lawns and then take the dog for his walk before I get charged for not walking the dog each day (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victorian-rspca-head-push-for-tougher-penalties-for-people-who-fail-to-walk-their-dogs/story-e6frf7jo-1225807128632), yes, seriously.

So D4J, I’ll be around if you want to buy me a coffee at Seagar’s, or maybe a beer later tonight at the OWC&MSA.

Oh, and thanks for the threats user of IP: 122.57.10.113 , 122-57-10-113.jetstream.xtra.co.nz. They made my day.

If you’re going to make threats you really should try harder to cover your tracks.
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December 5, 2009 9:26am
Pete George

Not wise in public on a blog.
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December 5, 2009 9:35am
big bruv

Wow!

D4J having an angry rant, who would have predicted that?
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December 5, 2009 9:46am
dad4justice

wondered when blouse would get her fingernails in.
Kiwiblog = the place where keyboard cowards excel
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December 5, 2009 9:47am
billyborker

Kiwiblog = the place where keyboard cowards excel

Yes, it would be a much nicer place if you took your threatening behaviour out of here.

Come on, MAN UP – either quit making threats, or follow through –

Jesus Christ and Dad4justice, the world’s biggest wimps.
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December 5, 2009 9:53am
Leonidas

I’d like to see how you handle a crucifixion….
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December 5, 2009 10:08am
Inventory2

billyborker said “Soccer is even more corrupt than the Olympics.”

OMG – I have to agree with borker 😉

Sepp Blatter makes Helen Clark look like Mother Teresa
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December 5, 2009 10:25am
LUCY

Luc It is in the Nature publication but you have to pay to see the article however if you go to The Dutch baily paper Elsevier (google Holland Elsevier) 3 Dec and 4 Dec science pages you will see it all.
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December 5, 2009 10:44am
Pete George

That may not be gaining any traction despite your persistence Lucy, because it is may be a but dubious at best.

Andrew Bolt’s mountain of disinformation

Andrew Bolt claims that “new research” “once more shows Al Gore faked his findings in An Inconvenient Truth”.

Well, it seems unfair to criticize Gore for not including the results of research published only yesterday. It is, however, perfectly fair to criticize Bolt for not including the results of the research in a post about that research.

Verschuren et al do find that ice and snow on Kilimanjaro retreat during dry periods and advance during wet periods. But they don’t find that the current retreat is natural.

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/12/andrew_bolts_mountain_of_infor.php?utm_source=sbhomepage&utm_medium=link&utm_content=channellink
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December 5, 2009 12:01pm
getstaffed

Houston braces for about 2 inches of snow

Some in Houston area may even see half a foot of the white stuff

By ERIC BERGER and PEGGY O’HARE
HOUSTON CHRONICLE

Houston this morning broke a record with the earliest snowfall ever recorded in the city’s history.

Forecasters are still hedging their bets on the amount, but say the most likely scenario is 1 to 2 inches of widespread snowfall through the day. Some areas could get up to a half a foot.

Light snow already was falling downtown and in other areas before 8:30 a.m. Other forms of precipitation — such as rain, freezing, rain, sleet and hail — also have been reported. Houston’s main weather recording station at Bush Intercontinental Airport reported at trace of snow at 8 a.m., meaning Dec. 4 will go down as the new record.
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December 5, 2009 12:23pm
Inventory2

Global Warming strikes again, eh getstaffed 😉
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December 5, 2009 12:42pm
Andrew W

The snow on Kilimanjaro thing was discussed at length soon after AIC was released, it was pretty much the consensus that the retreating snow line was due to local climatic, rather than global climatic, change.

You got any more old news for recycling Lucy?
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December 5, 2009 12:52pm
getstaffed

IV2, no no.. that’s weather which we predict 1-7 days out, having a patchy track record.

Climate, as per AGW, is what we expect many years ahead. We us dogdy, fudged and un-proven computer models, but expect to be spot on, so that trillions of dollars can be extracted from the ‘wealthy’ and given to ‘the poor’.
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December 5, 2009 12:52pm
Falafulu Fisi

Just a couple of quick points (I’ll come back to other issues, later – since it is beer time for me).

Paradigm said…
As long as you have had publications, you know how tough the peer review can get.

Papers I’ve had co-authored in the past were never sent Physics Review Letters for possible publications, not because their checking process & reviews were tougher, but because our target audience were in a different domain (although still in physics). We’ve had 2 papers rejected from Physica A journal (Statistical Mechanics), for the reason that they were’nt high quality. We submitted them to another journal but the same thing happened (rejected).

Radiative equilibrium of a body will exist in the large time limit when said body is adsorbing a constant amount in power terms. For a simplified model like the one discussed in these papers, that corresponds to a non-fluctuating sun and a circularly orbiting planet.

The assumption of a black body is actually useful here as well: since it assumes 100% adsorption it will help represent an upper limit. Now if you do all that, you get the upper limit for temperature of a planet in Earth’s orbit without an atmosphere. And its still lower than Earth’s temperature.

I brought up the wavelength issue, since that is when photon scattering dominates over absorption & re-emission. That’s from my own experience (plus theoretical considerations as well) at conducting proton scattering experiments at linear accelerator (former Auckland University Physics Department’s AURA-2 nulcear accelerator which it has been demolished). We tuned the proton bean energy so that it was in the vicinity of the target’s radius (gold nucleon – where we used gold-tin-foil). We don’t get any scattering (including back-scattered) if the energized proton (~ MeV) don’t approximate that of the gold nucleon size.

If the black-body radiation is inappropriately used, then the questions raised by authors of paper #1) is valid.

Now, here are some interesting papers :

#1) An Analysis of Universality in Blackbody Radiation

#2) Blackbody Radiation and the Loss of Universality: Implications for Planck’s
Formulation and Boltzman’s Constant

Note that the 2nd Law of thermo-dynamics can be violated (small time-scale) , but that is not applicable.
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December 5, 2009 1:00pm
paradigm

Falafulufisi,
As I pointed out, in the very simple models treating the Earth as a single blackbody establish an upper limit. If that upper limit does not get up to the Earth’s actual temperature then the atmosphere must be responsible for that change in temperature. That is all those models claim to prove.

Digressing to the actual climate models used for more predictive purposes, the emisivity as functions of wavelength are experimentally well known (incidentally most of the Earth’s surface is pretty close to a black body anyway in the IR region – I think sea water has emisivity of 0.9something there). So plugging the appropriate emisivity tends to legitimise that aspect of the actual models. I see no evidence that the blackbody is being misused.

With regard to scattering:
As you point out scattering only really occurs when wavelength starts to approch particle size. This is not a problem as the average molecule radius is <<the IR wavelength (and indeed visible wavelengths – although we do start to get a bit of rayleigh scattering here).

Note that the 2nd Law of thermo-dynamics can be violated (small time-scale) , but that is not applicable.

In which case it is irrelevant, and not really worth bringing up at all.
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December 5, 2009 2:42pm
billyborker

dad4justice (5599) 2 5 Says:

December 5th, 2009 at 8:36 am
borker you cunt, police will visit you today. Your email hacking stint has annoyed them. I am going to make an example of you good and proper! You are vile scum and you filthy prick have upset my family. They all want revenge.

Still waiting…waiting … waiting ….

Reckon Jesus will come back before the cops arrive at my door.
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December 5, 2009 6:42pm
dad4justice

Internal Affairs borker. Fuck you are sick.
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December 5, 2009 6:44pm
billyborker

dad4justice (5600) Vote: 0 0 Says:

December 5th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Internal Affairs borker. Fuck you are sick.

can I get some of the drugs you’re on? They must be amazing!

still waiting … waiting… waiting …

Getting bored waiting … waiting … waiting …

Come on Petey, MAN UP!
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December 5, 2009 6:47pm
billyborker

Your email to me:

I am so sorry I didn’t inform you about my trip to the UK for a program, I am not supposed to stay long, so I did not inform anyone about it. I’m presently in Middlesex and I am experiencing some difficulties here because I misplaced my bag on my way to the hotel where other valuable things were kept.
Presently my passport and other things are being held by the hotel management pending when I make payment. I will like you to assist me with a loan of (2,750 British pounds) to sort-out my hotel bills and to get myself back home. I will appreciate whatever you can afford to assist me with, I will Refund the money as soon as I return,let me know if you can be of any help ASAP.Please this is very confidential, I am urging you to let this be between us because I am so ashamed about the whole thing.

Thank you

Peter

Not as convincing as the Nigerian scammers, but a good try, nonetheless.
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December 5, 2009 6:50pm
dad4justice

You sent that email and I will prove it soon. Bad luck snake your email address is unknown to me but the Internal Affairs spam unit will sort the matter.
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December 5, 2009 6:53pm
billyborker

No, I received it, you sent it. Do try to keep up with your fantasies.
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December 5, 2009 6:56pm
dad4justice

I know what you are trying to do fugley. Please stop it.
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December 5, 2009 6:58pm
billyborker

Well, I’m not fugley, but I AM trrying to get you stop lying, god doesn’t like liars, you know.

[DPF: That’s enough. Stop it]
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December 5, 2009 7:05pm
billyborker

OK mum
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December 5, 2009 9:15pm
Falafulu Fisi

Paradigm,

Go to the other recent general debate thread (6th, Dec) with my comment here so we can continue there , since this one is old.
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December 6, 2009 7:28pm

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